Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, the actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 was 3.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from Q1[3] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial added value in the first half was 6.4%[40] Industrial Performance - In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 5.5%[11] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 7.0% in the first half, while high-tech industries saw a 9.5% increase[11] - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing rose by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half, while infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%[27] Consumer Spending - Retail sales in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from May[17] - Cumulative retail sales for the first half increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with service consumption rising by 5.3%[40] - The average per capita disposable income in the first half was 21,840 yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year[36] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half was 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous period[24] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half, with new housing starts down 20.0%[28] - The decline in real estate sales area was 3.5%, and sales revenue decreased by 5.5%[30] Policy Implications - Strengthening fiscal policy is crucial for stabilizing economic growth in the second half of 2025[40] - The uncertainty of external demand, particularly due to U.S. tariff policies, poses risks to economic stability[41] - Monitoring the outcomes of the July Politburo meeting will be essential for understanding future economic strategies[41]

Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's economy is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected growth rates of 4.4% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, driven by agricultural recovery and strong domestic demand despite external uncertainties [1][2] Agricultural Sector - The 2024/2025 agricultural season is anticipated to see a grain production of 4.4 million tons, a 41% increase year-on-year, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [1] - Agricultural value added is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 [1] Non-Agricultural Sectors - The non-agricultural sectors are projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with industrial, construction, and service sectors as key drivers [2] - The secondary sector is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in both years, with specific growth rates of 4.2% and 4.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The construction sector is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, supported by events like the Africa Cup in 2025 and the World Cup in 2030 [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is anticipated to be the core growth driver, with expected growth rates of 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, contributing 5.8 and 5 percentage points to GDP respectively [2] - Household consumption is projected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, while government consumption is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4% [2] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to grow by 9.8% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026, following a 10.9% increase in 2024 [2] Trade and External Factors - Net exports are expected to continue dragging down economic growth, with the trade deficit projected to rise from 19.1% of GDP in 2024 to 20.1% in 2026 [3] - The current account deficit is expected to remain in the range of 1.8% to 1.9% [3] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is projected to increase to 19.3% of GDP in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026, with the fiscal deficit rate expected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2026 [3] - Government debt is expected to improve, with domestic debt decreasing by 3 percentage points over three years [3] Monetary Policy - Non-financial sector credit is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, with broad money supply growth remaining above 6% [3] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to cover five months of import needs [3]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual GDP target[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.94%, with a contribution rate of 132% from volume and -30.6% from price, highlighting a high degree of imbalance in volume-price distribution[2][9] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52.3% to economic growth in Q2, slightly up from Q1, while capital formation contributed 24.7% and net exports contributed 23%[3][25] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth in June was -0.1%, down from 2.7% in the previous month, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment both declining[4][55] - The consumer spending growth rate in June was 4.8%, down from 6.4%, with notable declines in restaurant and related goods consumption[4][44] - The consumer propensity to spend was 68.6% in Q2, slightly higher than the previous year's 68.5%, indicating a stable consumer sentiment[5][28] Capacity Utilization and Employment - The capacity utilization rate for Q2 was 74.0%, down from 74.9% in the same period last year, with several industries showing declines[3][32] - The total number of rural migrant workers was 19.139 million at the end of Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[3][35] - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, reflecting a steady employment situation[40]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the second quarter, highlighting the need for a rebalancing of quantity and price in GDP growth, with a focus on consumer spending and investment control measures [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth Analysis - In Q2, GDP growth was 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, while the cumulative growth for the first half of the year was 5.3% [3][19]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 was 3.9%, with a significant contribution from quantity at 132% and a negative contribution from price at -30.6% [3][19]. - The contribution rates to GDP growth were as follows: final consumption expenditure at 52.3%, capital formation at 24.7%, and net exports at 23% [22]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth in June was -0.1%, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment showing declines [4][51]. - Consumer spending in June grew by 4.8%, down from 6.4% in May, with notable declines in restaurant and online shopping growth rates [4][40]. - The average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 increased by 3.0%, but this was lower than the 3.3% growth in Q1 [31]. Group 3: Rebalancing Measures - The article outlines three key measures for addressing the imbalance between quantity and price: controlling incremental investments, improving corporate cash flow, and enhancing consumer spending willingness [5][12][18]. - The first measure involves strict control over new investments, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth has been declining [12][13]. - The second measure focuses on improving cash flow for enterprises, with recent data indicating a recovery in corporate deposits [15][6]. - The third measure aims to boost consumer spending through various policies, with consumer inclination slightly increasing to 68.6% in Q2 compared to 68.5% in the previous year [18][25].

Economic Performance Overview - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, with a second-quarter growth of 5.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1% [2][3] - The overall economic performance is described as stable with progress, achieved under challenging international conditions and increasing external pressures [3] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for the first half of the year increased by 6.4%, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showing growth rates of 6.0%, 7.0%, and 1.9% respectively [5] - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries, particularly high-end equipment manufacturing, are identified as strong support for industrial growth [6][7] - A potential slowdown in industrial production is anticipated in the second half of the year due to export-related factors [8] Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods for June grew by 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [10] - For the first half of the year, retail sales totaled 245,458 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year increase [11] - Key trends in consumption include accelerated service consumption, enhanced holiday spending, and a rise in green consumption [12] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 248,654 billion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [16] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, contrasting with an 11.2% decline in real estate development investment [16] - The investment structure is improving, with a notable increase in high-tech service industry investments [17][18] Future Outlook - The potential for fixed asset investment remains significant, with a focus on mobilizing private investment and optimizing investment environments [18] - The government is expected to enhance infrastructure investment through special bonds and long-term treasury bonds in response to economic fluctuations [19] - Over 300 billion yuan has been allocated to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, with a total investment of 10.21 trillion yuan in projects being promoted to private capital [20]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The second China-Central Asia Five Nations Summit held in June 2025 resulted in multiple cooperation agreements, with mineral resources identified as a key area for collaboration [16] - Central Asia's rich mineral resources, combined with low levels of development, present significant investment potential for Chinese mining companies [16][19] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the market, driven by monetary policy adjustments and geopolitical factors [16] Summary by Sections 1. Central Asia's Mineral Resource Endowment and Development Status - Central Asia is rich in solid mineral resources, with significant reserves of chromium, uranium, gold, and coal, accounting for 48.0%, 13.1%, 7.3%, and 4.2% of global reserves respectively [19] - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan are the five Central Asian countries with diverse mineral resources [19][20] 2. Market Trends: Copper and Aluminum Fluctuations, Strategic Metals Revaluation - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with lithium battery materials experiencing the highest price increases [16] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, making price increases likely [16] 3. Policy Changes: New Mineral Resource Law Implementation - The revised Mineral Resources Law in China, effective July 1, 2025, aims to ensure national mineral resource security [2] - Various countries are intensifying policies for mineral resource protection and development, including significant tariff increases on steel and aluminum products in the U.S. [2] 4. Key Industry and Company Developments - Major mining companies are actively engaging in mergers, acquisitions, and project developments across Central Asia [3] - Notable transactions include Zijin Mining's proposed $1.2 billion acquisition of Kazakhstan's Raygorodok gold mine and other strategic investments in copper and rare metals [3][24][25]

Core Viewpoints - The June economic data reveals five significant "anomalies," indicating new changes in the economy lurking in hidden corners [3][9][110] - Despite strong performance in exports and industrial production, the second quarter GDP remained flat at 5.2%, aligning with market expectations [2][9][107] - The construction industry showed a notable decline, with total output value in the first half of the year growing only 0.2% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 2.5% growth in the first quarter [3][9][107] Economic Indicators - GDP: The second quarter GDP growth was 5.2%, matching expectations, while industrial value-added growth in June was 6.8%, exceeding expectations of 5.5% [2][7][107] - Retail Sales: June retail sales grew by 4.8%, below the expected 5.6%, with significant declines in both commodity retail and catering income due to misaligned e-commerce promotions and competitive subsidies from food delivery platforms [2][20][82] - Fixed Asset Investment: June's fixed asset investment growth fell to 0%, the lowest in three years, primarily due to a decline in investment prices and significant drops in construction and manufacturing investments [4][23][66] Sector Analysis - Real Estate: Although credit financing for real estate improved significantly in June, investment growth declined to -12.9%. The reduction in ongoing projects due to earlier declines in new starts continues to impact the sector negatively [4][30][109] - Industrial Production: The industrial value-added surged due to an increase in working days and "export rush," with textile and chemical raw materials sectors showing recovery, while automotive and steel production weakened [5][41][54] - Consumer Behavior: The decline in retail sales was influenced by the timing of e-commerce promotions, with significant drops in categories like home appliances and communication equipment [20][82][108] Long-term Outlook - The "front-loading effect" may lead to a switch in economic strength between the first and second halves of the year, with the concentrated adjustment phase of the economy since 2022 nearing its end [6][46][110] - The overall economic growth target for the year remains achievable at 5.0%, despite anticipated fluctuations in economic indicators in the second half [46][110]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial production in China showed a rapid growth in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, driven by strong performance in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Growth - The value added of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.2% year-on-year, while the high-tech manufacturing industry saw a growth of 9.5%, both outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.8 and 3.1 percentage points respectively [3]. - The monthly growth rates for high-tech manufacturing in the first half of the year were consistently above the overall industrial growth, with notable increases of 10.7% in March and 9.7% in June [3]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Support - The government is expected to implement more robust growth policies in the second half of the year, with a focus on stabilizing economic performance and enhancing market order [1][6]. - The central government has a rich "policy toolbox" and is preparing to introduce measures based on market changes to support economic stability [1][6]. Group 3: New Industries and Technologies - New industries and technologies are rapidly developing, with significant year-on-year production increases in 3D printing equipment (43.1%), new energy vehicles (36.2%), and industrial robots (35.6%) [4]. - The contribution of new technologies and products is anticipated to provide new growth points for the economy, potentially becoming a new pillar of growth in the coming years [4]. Group 4: Market Order and Competition - Measures are being developed to address the issue of "involution" in certain industries, aiming to improve market order and enhance product quality while phasing out outdated production capacity [7]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, but there are expectations for a moderate recovery in prices in the second half [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses how U.S. companies have been able to acquire restricted critical minerals from China through third-country transshipment methods, despite China's export controls [1][3] - It highlights the role of domestic Chinese companies in facilitating this process, which raises concerns about internal collusion and the effectiveness of China's export control measures [3][6] - The article also emphasizes the rising prices of critical minerals like gallium, germanium, and antimony due to increased competition and demand, leading some companies to take risks despite potential legal consequences [5][6] Group 1: U.S. Acquisition Methods - U.S. companies have imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico between December and April, surpassing the total from the previous three years [1] - Domestic Chinese companies have been involved in sourcing materials from producers and relabeling them before shipment to the U.S. [1][3] Group 2: China's Response and Internal Issues - China has tightened controls on rare earths and minerals in response to U.S. trade actions, but internal collusion has undermined these efforts [3][6] - The Chinese government has issued warnings against transferring materials to U.S. entities and has initiated actions against smuggling and evasion of export controls [8] Group 3: Legal and Market Implications - Domestic companies engaging in these activities risk severe legal penalties, including imprisonment for over five years [5] - The increase in mineral prices due to trade flow changes has incentivized risky behavior among companies, reflecting a "survival of the fittest" mentality [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth trends in China's retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production for June 2025, indicating a mixed economic recovery with varying performance across sectors and regions [1][6][14]. Retail Sales - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [5] - Urban retail sales amounted to 36,559 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while rural retail sales were 5,728 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.5% [2] - For the first half of 2025, total retail sales were 245,458 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% increase, with non-automobile retail sales growing by 5.5% [5] Fixed Asset Investment - In the first half of 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 248,654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [7] - The investment in the primary industry was 4,816 billion yuan (up 6.5%), while the secondary industry saw an investment of 88,294 billion yuan (up 10.2%), and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 1.1% with 155,543 billion yuan [8] - The eastern region's investment decreased by 0.8%, while the central and western regions saw increases of 3.2% and 4.8%, respectively [11] Industrial Production - In June 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.50% [15] - The manufacturing sector showed a growth of 7.4%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 1.8% [16] - Among 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in coal mining (6.5%), chemical manufacturing (7.5%), and automotive manufacturing (11.4%) [17] Online Retail - In the first half of 2025, online retail sales reached 74,295 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth, with physical goods online retail sales at 61,191 billion yuan (up 6.0%) [4] - The share of physical goods online retail sales in total retail sales was 24.9%, with food, clothing, and daily necessities growing by 15.7%, 1.4%, and 5.3%, respectively [4] Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale industries in the second quarter of 2025 was 74.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [21] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization was 74.3%, while the mining sector was at 72.7% [22]