Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Title: "Paper Pulp: Wide - range Fluctuation 20260113" - Date: January 13, 2026 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The paper pulp market is in a wide - range fluctuation state. The market supply - demand structure has not changed significantly, and downstream demand remains weak, failing to provide new driving forces. Attention should be paid to the capital trends in the futures market, the actual transaction changes of high - priced broadleaf pulp, port inventory data, downstream orders, and pulp price changes [4][5] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - session closing price of the paper pulp main contract was 5,490 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan from the previous day), and the night - session closing price was 5,514 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan). The trading volume was 283,615 lots (down 66,346 lots), the holding volume of the 05 contract was 219,104 lots (up 3,624 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 142,363 tons (up 5,874 tons), and the net holding volume of the top 20 members was - 29,805 lots (down 2,872 lots) [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "Yinxing - Futures Main" was 60 (up 10), the basis of "Jinyu - Futures Main (Non - standard)" was - 740 (up 60), and the month - spread of SP03 - SP05 was - 30 (up 4) [3] - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp brands such as Beimu, Kailipu, Shipai, and Yinxing were 5,800 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, and 5,550 yuan/ton respectively; the domestic prices of broadleaf pulp brands such as Jindao, Mingxing, and Tai were 4,750 yuan/ton, 4,750 yuan/ton, and 4,700 yuan/ton respectively; the domestic price of chemical mechanical pulp brand Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton; and the domestic price of natural color pulp brand Jinxing was 5,050 yuan/ton [3] 4.2 Industry News - The futures market fluctuated downward yesterday. The price of coniferous pulp in the spot market weakened, while the price of broadleaf pulp remained at a high - level offer. The actual transactions of high - priced broadleaf pulp were light, and the terminal's acceptance of the current price was gradually weakening [4] - The mainstream price of 70g white offset paper was 4,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of 70g high - white offset paper was 4,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat from the previous day. Factory production did not increase, and the market supply was abundant. Supported by pulp factors, enterprises mostly maintained a price - holding strategy. Downstream consumption was mainly social orders, with low user purchasing enthusiasm, leading to cautious operations by traders [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Guanhao High-tech (600433) has disclosed its shareholder count, which is projected to reach 44,211 households by December 31, 2025 [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping - Analyst Qualification Number: F3002581 - Transaction Consultation License Number: Z0012806 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The current logic is that the trading sentiment in the spot market has weakened. With the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market is facing pressure from hedging positions. - On the basis of stable fundamentals, the strong price support from the forward overseas market still provides support for domestic pulp spot and forward prices, limiting the downside space of the futures market. - In the long - term, the overseas shipments in January are still decreasing, and there is no significant pressure on short - term arrivals. After the simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices, the spot trading has slightly weakened. As the futures price rises and reaches the risk - free hedging position for some European and Canadian softwood pulp again, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts, upward pressure may emerge. Although the fundamentals have improved, there are no actual factors to drive up the price. - Pulp sentiment remains for now, and it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. However, if contradictions in the real - world market gradually accumulate (such as the port inventory turning to accumulation, new warehouse receipts being registered successively, and spot trading weakening) or the macro - sentiment weakens, pulp may shift to a weakly volatile trend. - Strategy recommendation: The commodity sector is improving, and there are still risks in the energy and chemical market due to international situations and macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see during the day. If the spot price is stable and one holds deliverable forward goods at a suitable cost, one can choose to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract at high prices to meet the risk - free hedging needs at high levels [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained basically stable this week. The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased by 150 yuan/ton, but the spot price was stable, and the market had sufficient spot supply. - Import: In November 2025, China's pulp imports were 324.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The cumulative annual imports were 3292.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The shipments of softwood and hardwood pulp from pulp - producing countries to China rebounded in November, and it is estimated that the domestic arrivals in January will increase month - on - month [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production was stable, with no obvious demand - side drivers. The maintenance equipment for coated paper has resumed normal production, and the production of coated paper has increased slightly. - Inventory: As the spot price became firmer and the downstream replenishment came to an end with reduced willingness, the port inventory gradually shifted to accumulation. Under the high price of far - month contracts, there were hedging opportunities for some low - priced European softwood pulp, and the warehouse receipts in the contracts have increased successively. The downstream finished - product inventory is in a state of shock adjustment [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quotation increased, the spot price of hardwood pulp remained firm with relatively tight market liquidity, and the futures price was also firm. The price of softwood pulp was firm, but the buying demand was weak, and the demand was average. After the large - scale replenishment by major manufacturers ended, the spot trading weakened slightly, but the price remained relatively firm. The trading sentiment in the spot market weakened, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market was facing pressure from hedging positions. The finished - product price remained stable, and there were no price increase notices. - Spread: The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to shrink to a relatively low level, which may drive the digestion of old softwood pulp. The far - month futures price continued to strengthen, and the spread shrank. The futures price corrected, the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [11]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of domestic pulp remained stable, and the cost of imported pulp increased due to the increase in overseas prices. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp is expected to rise slightly. The profit of imported pulp is expected to be further compressed due to the increase in overseas prices. The raw material cost of paper continued to rise. Although the finished - product price also increased, the profit was still affected [13]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2025 to January 2026, including data on imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, factory inventory, apparent demand, and inventory (including port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and total inventory) [19]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. - Demand and Inventory: The apparent demand and inventory in Europe are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Analyzes various aspects of supply, including pulp imports, softwood pulp imports, hardwood pulp imports, softwood pulp imports by country, imports of chemimechanical pulp and unbleached pulp, and imports of softwood and hardwood chips, and provides historical data from 2022 - 2025 [33][37][40]. - Demand: Analyzes pulp apparent demand and downstream finished - product paper (including toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard), and provides information on the planned production capacity of some paper mills [73][88]. - Inventory: Analyzes pulp total inventory, including the sum of port inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [117]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Analyzes the import cost and profit of pulp and the production cost and profit of domestic pulp [125][128]. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Analyzes pulp overseas quotations, spot price seasonality, spot spread seasonality, basis, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of the SP main contract [132][137][141]

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a rise of 0.55% on January 12, with Qifeng New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed significant increases, with Qifeng New Materials rising by 5.21% to a closing price of 68.8, and Changxing Paper Industry increasing by 4.14% to 5.79 [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 85.15 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 139 million yuan [2] - Individual stocks like Shanying International and Bohui Paper experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [3] - Shanying International had a major fund net outflow of 25.60 million yuan, while Bohui Paper saw a net inflow of 15.72 million yuan from major funds [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the pulp industry is that it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a trading strategy of a unilateral oscillating operation and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by macro - commodity sentiment, with limited internal drivers. Supply shows some strength, demand is neutral, and inventory is also neutral. Overall, the pulp is expected to oscillate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply is strong. Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp is 710 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the offer for broad - leaf pulp Star is 590 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; and the offer for natural pulp Venus is 620 US dollars/ton, remaining flat [3]. - **Demand**: The demand is neutral. This week, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while the prices of other paper products are stable. In the fourth quarter, the overall paper production increased due to the peak demand season [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in China's mainstream pulp ports is 200.7 tons, up 1.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend [3]. - **Investment View**: The pulp is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the significant impact of macro - commodity sentiment and limited internal drivers [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate. For arbitrage, pay attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: The pulp futures have been oscillating this week. Affected by macro - commodity sentiment and with limited internal drivers, it is expected to trade between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaf pulp has increased, and the basis of coniferous pulp has changed. The external offer of coniferous pulp has also increased [6][14][16]. - **Position Change**: As of January 12, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts is 307109 lots, up 0.2% from last week, and the position of the main pulp futures contract is 215480 lots, up 4.3% from last week [18]. 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume is 3246000 tons, up 23.99%; the coniferous pulp import volume is 725000 tons, up 4.92%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume is 1765000 tons, up 33.88%; and the broad - leaf wood chip import volume is 1490000 tons, up 55.69% [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp inventory in ports has rebounded, and a large number of new warehouse receipts have been registered. As of January 8, 2026, the port inventory is 200.7 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory is 10450 tons, up 4.3% [3][4]. Overseas pulp mill inventory days are generally stable, with the inventory of 20 major countries at 46 days at the end of November [36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while other paper prices are stable. In December 2025, the production of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The inventory of double - offset paper has increased, and the available days have also increased. The production cost of double - offset paper has increased, and the gross profit has decreased. In Europe, the demand for pulp has increased, and the inventory has decreased [39][48][62]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star has weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread is basically stable [80].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong performance, with 16 consecutive trading days of gains, surpassing the 4100-point mark, marking a ten-year high [1] - The current rise in A-shares is attributed to the systematic enhancement of the pricing power of RMB assets against the backdrop of a global liquidity restructuring [1][2] - The article analyzes the market dynamics from three dimensions: cross-border capital flow, recovery of the real economy, and asset valuation reconstruction [1] Group 2 - The change in global liquidity is driven by the anticipated personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a new cycle of global monetary policy [2] - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman and the criticism of current monetary policy processes suggest an increased influence of the White House on monetary decisions [2] - If aggressive rate cuts or new quantitative easing measures are implemented, it could create strategic opportunities for RMB assets [2] Group 3 - The reversal of cross-border capital flows is indicated by the RMB entering a positive appreciation cycle, driven by expectations of currency strengthening [3] - The current capital outflow has reached approximately 10 trillion yuan, but there remains about 16 trillion yuan in unconverted funds that could return to the market [3] - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as a natural outcome of China's industrial maturity, reflecting an increase in pricing power in global trade [4] Group 4 - The recovery of cash flow statements and balance sheets in the real economy is underway, aided by the appreciation of the RMB [5] - The easing of capital outflow pressures and improved profitability in the real sector are contributing to a positive shift in cash flow dynamics [5][6] - The central bank is expected to introduce localized quantitative easing policies to support debt resolution processes by 2026 [6] Group 5 - The macroeconomic indicators show signs of mild recovery, with GDP growth reaching 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, supporting the A-share market's valuation [8] - The inventory cycle has shifted from passive destocking to active restocking, indicating improved corporate profit expectations [8] - The overall economic environment is conducive to a solid foundation for A-share valuation, with rising consumer demand and easing cost pressures for industrial enterprises [8] Group 6 - The influx of incremental funds into the A-share market is evident, with insurance capital increasing its direct investment in stocks to 3.6 trillion yuan by Q3 2025 [9] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to further enhance liquidity in the market, leading to increased capital inflows [9] - The value of Chinese manufacturing assets is being reassessed globally, as the country transitions towards high-end manufacturing and gains recognition in various sectors [10] Group 7 - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as import-dependent industries and those with high dollar liabilities [11] - Key areas for investment include advanced manufacturing sectors like brain-machine interfaces and commercial aerospace, which represent the future direction of China's economy [12] - Stable income-generating assets, such as banks and insurance companies, are expected to play a crucial role in the economic recovery process [12] Group 8 - The current market conditions suggest that the A-share market's rise above 4100 points is not a temporary peak but a new starting point for the revaluation of RMB assets [13] - The year 2026 is anticipated to see stronger fiscal policies and coordinated monetary measures that will support the stock market [13] - The consensus on the revaluation of Chinese assets is forming, driven by global supply chain restructuring and energy transitions [13]

Group 1: A-Share Market Focus - The export growth for 2025 is expected to reach 5.3%, supported by resilient non-US exports and a potential easing of US tariffs [10][12][11] - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by several factors, including lower-than-expected US inflation data, which has increased market expectations for future Fed rate cuts [13][14] - Key sectors to watch include those sensitive to RMB appreciation, such as aviation, gas, and paper industries, which historically show significant stock price elasticity during appreciation phases [19][14] Group 2: US Market Focus - Economic growth in the US is projected to slow in the first half of 2026, influenced by factors such as the end of preemptive consumption and a slowdown in capital expenditures related to AI [31][35] - The K-shaped recovery in the US economy indicates that high-income consumers are driving growth, while lower-income consumers face increasing financial strain [35][31] - The upcoming Fed leadership change may influence monetary policy, with potential for further rate cuts depending on the new chair's stance [36][41] Group 3: Oil Market Focus - The impact of recent events in Venezuela on oil prices is expected to be limited in the short term, with US oil companies likely to benefit first [49][51] - Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally but ranks 22nd in production, indicating challenges in translating reserves into output [53]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp futures were significantly weakened by the macro - sentiment of commodities today but did not break through the 5400 - 5700 shock range. It is expected to have large fluctuations due to commodity sentiment in the near future, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 9, 2026, SP2601 was 5480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 0.37%; SP2609 was 5602 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.68% and a weekly increase of 0.57%; SP2605 was 5550 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.84% and a weekly increase of 0.33% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On January 9, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.89% and no weekly change; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly increase of 1.06% [6] - **Foreign Offer Prices**: In January 2026, the offer price of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 1.43%; the offer price of Brazilian Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 3.70%; the offer price of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no monthly change [6] - **Import Costs**: In January 2026, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 1.42%; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4587 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 3.66%; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton with no monthly change [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons with a monthly increase of 4.92% compared to October; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 176.5 tons with a monthly increase of 33.92% compared to October [6] - **Supply - Domestic Output**: On January 8, 2026, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp was 25.1 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, a cumulative increase of 9.1 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [6] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On January 8, 2026, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 13.5 tons [6] - **Demand - Finished Paper Output**: On January 8, 2026, the output of offset paper was 20.40 tons; the output of coated paper was 8.40 tons; the output of tissue paper was 29.33 tons; the output of white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (02689) has seen its stock price rise over 20% in the month, reaching a new high of 7.35 HKD, driven by supply reductions and price increases in the paper industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's stock increased by 8.43% to 7.33 HKD, with a trading volume of 165 million HKD [1] - The stock price has reached its highest level since January 2023, indicating strong market performance [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have undertaken large-scale maintenance shutdowns, actively reducing supply [1] - Companies in the white card and cultural paper sectors, such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper, have collectively announced price increases [1] - The appreciation of the RMB, which recently broke the 7 mark, is expected to lower the cost of imported pulp, thereby improving the profitability of the paper industry [1] - The industry has been in a prolonged bottoming phase, with a long-term trend of supply-demand improvement being established [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential impact of anti-competition policies in the paper sector and marginal changes in demand that could contribute to cyclical elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) has seen its stock price rise over 20% in the month, reaching a new high of HKD 7.35, driven by supply reductions and price increases in the paper industry [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's stock rose by 8.43% to HKD 7.33, with a trading volume of HKD 165 million [1] - The stock price has increased over 20% within the month, indicating strong market performance [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have undertaken large-scale maintenance shutdowns, actively reducing supply [1] - Companies such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have collectively announced price increases for white card and cultural paper [1] Group 3: Economic Factors - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi beyond 7 is expected to lower the cost of imported pulp, benefiting the profitability of the paper industry [1] - Bohai Securities notes that the domestic paper industry has a reliance on overseas pulp, and the currency appreciation will help improve profit margins [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan highlights a long-term trend of supply-demand improvement in the industry, with potential benefits from policies aimed at reducing competition and marginal demand changes [1]