Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The report highlights the opportunity in the paper sector due to the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which enhances domestic purchasing power and reduces costs for imported raw materials like wood pulp [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with high wood pulp procurement costs, such as Zhongshun Jierou, and recommends Sun Paper for its integrated advantages in cultural paper production [5][6] - The report also emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in Q4 due to stabilized and rising pulp prices, alongside the release of new production capacity [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The light industry sector includes 167 listed companies with a total market value of 1,204.38 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 954.25 billion CNY [1] Market Performance - For the week of December 22-26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.53%. The light industry index gained 1.69%, ranking 16th among 28 Shenwan industries [10] - The paper sector saw a weekly increase of 4.47%, while the textile and apparel index rose by 2.86% [10] Key Company Recommendations - Sun Paper: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 1.10 CNY in 2023 to 1.48 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 14.25 to 10.60 [3] - Baiya Co.: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.54 CNY in 2023 to 1.28 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 38.94 to 16.49 [3] - Huali Group: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 2.74 CNY in 2023 to 3.97 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 19.24 to 13.27 [3] Raw Material Price Trends - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with MDI and TDI prices decreasing, while cotton prices have shown an upward trend [18][22] - The average price of wood pulp and various paper products is tracked, indicating a mixed performance with some prices stabilizing and others showing slight increases [42] Housing Market Data - The report highlights a significant decline in property sales, with a 39.1% year-on-year decrease in transactions among major cities [31] - Cumulative property sales area from January to November 2025 shows a 7.8% decline year-on-year [59] Consumer Goods and AI Applications - The report discusses the potential of AI applications in consumer goods, particularly in the context of new product launches and market expansion opportunities [6] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the paper sector due to favorable currency movements and suggests specific companies for investment based on their cost structures and market positions [5][6]

11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 王文杰(分析师) | 021-23185637 | wangwenjie4@gtht.com | S0880525040070 | 本报告导读： 11 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，黑纸持续上涨， 盈利略有承压，我们预计 12 月浆价持续上涨，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸延续上涨。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸表现疲 软》2025.10.15 造纸业《8 月木浆及黑 ...

【2025.12.01-2025.12.07】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 政策持续赋能，行业加快转型 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 大同证券研究中心 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 发布日期：2025.12.08 造纸行情走势图 包装纸提价持续兑现，多纸种价格稳步上行：本周包装纸涨价 潮持续深化，龙头纸企密集发布调价通知，瓦楞纸、箱板纸同 比分别上涨 17.65%、6.86%。终端价格同步走强，箱板纸、瓦 楞纸均价周环比均上涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸单周涨幅达 100 元/ 吨，白板纸因供给收紧（产能优化）、龙头提价计划带动，价 格稳步上行至3467元/吨。废纸成本支撑与下游刚性需求共振， 价格传导机制完全通畅，盈利修复逻辑持续强化。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The coniferous pulp futures have stabilized, boosting the market and leading to a slight improvement in spot transactions. The foreign market price of broadleaf pulp has been continuously increasing, providing cost support for the firmness of the spot price. However, the pattern of high inventory and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market lacks directional guidance. It is expected that the upward space for pulp is limited, and the market will maintain a volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Demand - During the week, the production of household paper, coated paper, and white cardboard decreased, while the production of offset paper increased [6]. Supply - The sample production of Chinese broadleaf pulp was 250,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared to last week. The sample broadleaf pulp market remained stable this period, and the production enterprises' equipment returned to normal production. It is expected that the sample production will maintain a stable trend in the short term [7]. Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.008 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decline of 2.6%. The inventory showed a narrow - range destocking trend this period [7]. - The inventory changes of different ports: Qingdao Port decreased by 3.9% (from 1.41 million tons to 1.355 million tons), Changshu Port increased by 0.6% (from 503,000 tons to 506,000 tons), Gaolan Port increased by 64.7% (from 34,000 tons to 56,000 tons), Tianjin Port decreased by 29.2% (from 72,000 tons to 51,000 tons), and Rizhao Port decreased by 4.8% (from 42,000 tons to 40,000 tons) [9]. Profit - The price of domestic waste paper continued to rise, and due to strong cost pressure, the gross profit of corrugated paper, boxboard paper, and white board paper shrank. The demand for bobbin paper was good, and the increase in the price of base paper exceeded the cost, resulting in a 11.00% month - on - month increase in gross profit. Due to more positive news on the demand side of social white cardboard, the increase in base paper price was greater than that of pulp price, and the gross profit increased by 78.18% month - on - month. The price of cultural printing paper base paper remained flat, while the price of domestic chemimechanical pulp increased month - on - month, so the gross profit of double - copper paper decreased by 4.37% month - on - month [7]. - Specific profit data: The gross profit of boxboard paper decreased by 3.24% (from 683 yuan/ton to 661 yuan/ton), corrugated paper decreased by 7.79% (from 408 yuan/ton to 376 yuan/ton), bobbin paper increased by 11.00% (from 100 yuan/ton to 111 yuan/ton), white board paper decreased by 9.73% (from 339 yuan/ton to 306 yuan/ton), social white cardboard increased by 78.18% (from 110 yuan/ton to 196 yuan/ton), offset paper decreased by 2.37% (from - 253 yuan/ton to - 259 yuan/ton), double - copper paper decreased by 4.37% (from 183 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton), and household paper remained unchanged at 149 yuan/ton [11].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 01: The previous settlement price was 5,274 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,288 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase [7]. - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range for softwood pulp was 4,870 - 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's October pulp offers: Softwood pulp Yinxing was $680/ton, down $20 from the previous month; unbleached kraft pulp Jinxing was $590/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Mingxing was $540/ton, unchanged [8]. - European pulp inventory and consumption in September: Inventory was 722,300 tons, up 3% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year; consumption was 813,200 tons, up 16.3% month - on - month and down 1.6% year - on - year [8]. - As of October 30, 2025: The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased 0.85% month - on - month, and the overall shipping speed was stable [8]. Operation Suggestions - The downstream base paper performance remains differentiated, with slow growth in pulp market demand and a late start to the traditional peak season. The market demand for offset paper is generally weak. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the total profit of the papermaking and paper products industry continued to narrow. In the short term, the market focuses on the potential boost to the futures price from the low number of old warehouse receipts after cancellation, but the rebound space is limited under the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to try shorting on rallies [8]. 3. Industry News - National Bureau of Statistics data for January - September 2025: The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.3732 trillion yuan, a 3.2% year - on - year increase. For the papermaking and paper products industry, the operating income was 1.03757 trillion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year; the operating cost was 916.95 billion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year; the total profit was 27.12 billion yuan, down 15.6% year - on - year [9]. - Company performance: Sun Paper's operating income was 28.936 billion yuan, down 6.58% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.5 billion yuan, up 1.66% year - on - year; Wuzhou Special Paper's operating income was 6.457 billion yuan, up 18.13% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, down 44.66% year - on - year; Xianhe Co., Ltd.'s operating income was 9.063 billion yuan, up 24.8% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 778 million yuan, down 4.77% year - on - year; Hengfeng Paper's operating income was 2.039 billion yuan, up 6.29% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million yuan, up 34.76% year - on - year [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the pulp market had a pattern of strong supply and weak demand for softwood pulp, with high inventory and slow de - stocking suppressing the rebound. The double - offset paper was in the off - season, and it was difficult to implement price increases. The pulp market's "structural increment" was still concentrated in hardwood pulp [4][5]. - For the pulp market in November, the upper limit was suppressed by high inventory and old warehouse receipts, while the lower limit was supported by the foreign market quotation and the price increase of white cardboard. For double - offset paper, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction still relied on paper mills' active production cuts [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Paper Pulp Market Review - In October, the domestic spot pulp price showed a pattern of "differentiated oscillations, weak softwood and stable hardwood". Softwood pulp led the decline due to high port inventory, weak demand, and financial market pressure. Hardwood pulp rose slightly supported by foreign market price increases and tight immediate supply. Unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed sideways movements, and domestic chemimechanical pulp rose rapidly in the second half of the month due to wood chip shortages, while non - wood pulp fluctuated slightly with wood pulp [10]. - The pulp futures 01 contract in October showed a "first - down - then - up" oscillating trend. Influenced by factors such as factory shutdowns, paper mill price increases, and exchange rate changes, the closing price at the end of the month increased by about 1.5% compared to the beginning of the month, and the daily average amplitude of the main contract was about 1.2% [15][17]. 2. Paper Pulp Supply - **Import**: In September, China's paper pulp imports reached 295.2 million tons, a historical peak for the same period. The forecast for October arrivals remained at around 3 million tons. It was expected that the annual imports would exceed 36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [21]. - **Domestic Production**: In October, domestic paper pulp production was 2.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.4%. It was expected that the annual production would reach 25.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 4% [21][22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the sample inventory of mainstream ports was 2.055 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. If the November imports decreased as expected, the inventory was expected to continue to decline slightly, but it was difficult to fall below the critical level of 1.9 million tons [23][24]. 3. Paper Pulp Demand - **Cultural Paper**: In October, the apparent consumption of cultural paper decreased, and the demand for pulp continued to decline. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would decrease by about 5% [27]. - **Packaging Paper**: In October, the consumption of hardwood pulp in packaging paper increased rapidly. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by 8 - 10% [27][28][29]. - **Household Paper**: In October, household paper maintained high - level production and sales. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by about 6% [30][31]. 4. Cultural Paper Market Review - **Double - Offset Paper**: In October, the average market price of double - offset paper was 4,643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, there was still a risk of price decline [32]. - **Coated Paper**: In October, the average price of coated paper was 4,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. In November, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels [32][34]. 5. Cultural Paper Price Analysis - **Production**: In October, the production of double - offset paper was 890,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.3%. The production of coated paper was 353,000 tons, with a utilization rate of 58.8%. In November, the planned production of both was expected to increase slightly [36][37]. - **Inventory**: At the end of October, the enterprise inventory of double - offset paper was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The inventory of coated paper was 371,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. If the price increase letters were not implemented in November, the inventory would continue to rise [38]. - **Profit**: In October, the losses of double - offset paper and coated paper expanded. In November, although paper mills issued price increase letters, it was difficult to reverse the loss situation [39]. - **Cost**: In October, the cost of wood pulp and energy increased, squeezing the profit space of paper mills. In November, there was still upward pressure on costs [40]. - **Import and Export**: In September, the imports and exports of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased. In October, the export volume was expected to remain low [40][41]. - **Downstream Demand**: In October, the demand for cultural paper was weak. In November, the spring textbook tender volume was expected to decline, and the demand was difficult to provide upward momentum [42]. 6. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Paper Pulp Fundamental Analysis**: In November, attention should be paid to the port de - stocking speed. If the inventory fell below 1.9 million tons, the basis would converge, and the futures price would rise; otherwise, the near - low - far - high reverse spread would be maintained [46]. - **Paper Pulp Futures Strategy**: For single - side trading, short the SP2511 contract on rallies and long the SP2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, mainly use the 12 - 1 reverse spread idea. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [47][49]. - **Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis**: In November, the supply and demand of double - offset paper remained loose, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction relied on paper mills' active production cuts [50]. - **Double - Offset Paper Strategy**: For single - side trading, short the OP2601 contract on rallies. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [51][54].

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry in China is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits due to falling paper prices and weak demand, despite attempts by companies to raise prices [1][2][4]. Industry Overview - The paper industry is a fundamental raw material sector closely linked to the national economy, categorized into four main segments: cultural paper, packaging paper, specialty paper, and household paper [2]. - In the first three quarters of the year, prices for various paper types, including white card paper, double glue paper, copper plate paper, and corrugated paper, have continued to decline due to supply-demand imbalances and high costs [2]. Company Performance - Sun Paper (太阳纸业) reported a revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, while net profit increased slightly by 1.66% to 2.5 billion yuan [4]. - Other companies, such as Yueyang Forest Paper (岳阳林纸) and Minfeng Special Paper (民丰特纸), have seen significant declines in net profit, with Yueyang's net profit down 31.49% and Minfeng's down 69.43% [2][4]. - Five Continents Special Paper (五洲特纸) achieved a revenue of 6.457 billion yuan, an 18.13% increase, but net profit fell by 44.66% [4]. Reasons for Performance Decline - Companies attribute their performance decline to several factors, including intense market competition, falling sales prices, and increased financial costs due to expansion [5][6][7]. - Yueyang Forest Paper cited three main reasons for its third-quarter decline: competitive pricing, increased interest expenses, and reduced income from its landscaping business [5]. - Minfeng Special Paper's decline was primarily due to production line adjustments and increased financial costs from project loans [6]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, there is potential for recovery in paper prices as the industry enters its traditional peak season in the fourth quarter, with expectations for price increases in white card paper and corrugated paper [8][9]. - Companies are continuing to expand production capacity, which may impact pricing dynamics, but the focus remains on maintaining profitability through differentiated products [8][9].

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while the expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [2] - The government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 30,717 billion yuan, while the expenditure increased by 23.9% year-on-year to 74,924 billion yuan [2] - The structure of public finance revenue continues to improve, with tax revenue growth accelerating, while non-tax revenue has turned from growth to decline [3] - The growth rate of public finance expenditure remains stable, with a focus on social welfare and a slight decrease in infrastructure spending [4] - The government fund income decline has eased, and the expenditure growth rate is expected to remain high due to a 500 billion yuan allocation to local governments [5] Fund Research - The equity market indices experienced a decline, with the smallest drop being 0.24% for the Shanghai 50 and the largest being 6.16% for the Sci-Tech 50 [7] - The average decline for equity funds was 4.13%, with only 5.23% showing positive returns, while pure bond funds had a positive return rate of 99% [8] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 608.84 billion yuan, with stock ETFs leading the inflow at 247.40 billion yuan [8] Industry Research - The light manufacturing industry and textile and apparel sectors both saw declines, with the light manufacturing sector down 2.22% and the textile sector outperforming by 1.91 percentage points [12] - The domestic pet food brands performed well during the "Double Eleven" pre-sale, with significant revenue growth reported by Zhongchong Co., which saw a 21.05% increase in revenue and an 18.21% increase in net profit [12][14] - The packaging paper prices have been rising, which is expected to support the performance of related stocks in the future [12] - The light manufacturing and textile sectors have underperformed the market, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery in stocks with high dividend expectations [13]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The packaging paper price increase trend continues, with leading paper companies like Nine Dragons and Shanying announcing price hikes, indicating a strong demand and cost transmission effect in the paper industry [3][4] - The pulp market inventory is decreasing, with the average price of domestic bleached softwood kraft pulp dropping by 96.25 yuan/ton, easing cost pressures for paper companies [3][10] - Policies and corporate initiatives are accelerating the industry's transformation towards "green, intelligent, and integrated" production, with several companies achieving significant milestones in water efficiency and resource utilization [3][5][22] - The valuation and fundamentals of the paper sector are resonating positively, with many companies listed among the top 500 manufacturing enterprises in China, indicating strong cash flow and performance certainty [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry News - Hebei province has included the paper industry in its carbon offset program, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while promoting sustainable practices [4] - Multiple paperboard manufacturers are passing on cost pressures to downstream packaging companies, indicating a sustained price increase trend for raw paper [4] High-Frequency Data - The average inventory of pulp futures has decreased to 229,000 tons, down by 3,123.75 tons week-on-week, while the average closing price has slightly increased to 4,818 yuan/ton [6] Company Events and Announcements - Asia Pacific Forestry and Paper has been recognized as a leading water-efficient enterprise in Shandong, achieving a 95.98% industrial water recycling rate [22] - Guangxi Jianhui Paper's first batch of wood chips has successfully entered the factory, marking a significant step in its integrated supply chain [22] - The 220 billion yuan integrated forestry and paper project by Liansheng has commenced full production, significantly altering the regional paper industry landscape [22] Investment Strategy - The current phase of the paper sector is characterized by deepening price increases and policy support, with a focus on the packaging paper price increase and the upcoming demand from the Double Eleven shopping festival [23]

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing a peak season with stable prices, supported by a healthy supply-demand balance, which is expected to continue [4] - The cost pressures on paper companies are easing due to a reduction in paper pulp futures inventory and stable pricing, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [4] - Multiple favorable policies are driving the industry's transformation towards high-end and green development, with significant initiatives such as the establishment of the Printing Paper Working Committee and strategic collaborations to enhance digitalization and branding [4][6][7] - The current valuation of the paper sector is at a historical low, with three supporting factors: stable peak season prices, alleviated costs, and policy-driven transformation, indicating clear improvement in the fundamentals [4] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and performance certainty of leading companies in the sector, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections Industry News - Four paper companies, including Chenming and Nine Dragons, were listed in the "2025 China Top 500 Enterprises" [5] - A strategic partnership was formed between JD.com and the Baoding government to promote the digital and brand transformation of the paper industry [6] - The establishment of the Printing Paper Working Committee aims to enhance quality and fair competition in the industry [7] High-Frequency Data - As of September 19, 2025, the average inventory of paper pulp futures decreased to 244,800 tons, while the average closing price was 4,995.6 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight price adjustment [8] - Domestic paper prices remained stable, with whiteboard paper at 4,000 CNY/ton and corrugated paper at 3,040 CNY/ton, among others [20] Company Events and Announcements - Sichuan Xianhe New Materials announced a project to add 200,000 tons/year of household paper capacity [30] - Jindong Paper was recognized for its smart manufacturing initiatives, marking a milestone in its digital transformation [31] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable peak prices and new capacity releases, particularly in packaging and specialty paper, while also considering companies with strong policy support and technological advancements for long-term growth [33]