证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 龙头纸企提价待落地 【2026.2.9-2026.2.15】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.25 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 造纸行情走势图 纸品价格保持平稳，龙头提价节奏延续：本周纸品价格整体平 稳，箱板纸、瓦楞纸、白卡纸、白板纸价格均与上周持平。行 业提价逻辑持续强化，玖龙等龙头此前已落地 2 月调价，3 月 提价计划明确，白卡纸春节后提价概率较高，叠加多数纸厂停 机检修导致供给收缩，为后续纸价上行奠定基础。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回升价格下行，供需格局相对宽松：纸浆期货库存升 至 15.46 万吨（周增 8165 吨），期货收盘价下降 84 元/吨至 5160 元/吨；国内漂 ...

1 月行业提价逐步落地，盈利进入改善通道 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 1 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，盈利略有承压，预 计木浆市场供应先降后增，需求跟进不足，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸价格承压。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《12 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖》 2026.01.07 造纸业《11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖》 2025.12.10 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸 ...

1 月行业提价逐步落地，盈利进入改善通道 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 1 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，盈利略有承压，预 计木浆市场供应先降后增，需求跟进不足，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸价格承压。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《12 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖》 2026.01.07 造纸业《11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖》 2025.12.10 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is experiencing a stable supply-demand balance, with leading companies implementing price increases. For instance, the average price of whiteboard paper has risen by 14 RMB/ton, while major players like Nine Dragons have raised prices for various paper types by 30-50 RMB/ton, with further increases planned for March [2][3] - The pulp inventory has increased to 146,400 tons, with a slight decrease in futures closing price to 5,244 RMB/ton. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the supply-demand balance remains tight, alleviating cost pressures on paper product profitability [2][12] - The industry is undergoing a green transformation, supported by policies promoting low-carbon initiatives. Leading companies are adopting renewable energy practices, indicating a clear trend towards "greening, scaling, and securing" the industry [2][9] Summary by Sections Industry News - Nine Dragons has announced price increases for corrugated paper and recycled paper across its eight bases, effective February 2, with further adjustments planned [3][4][5][6][11] High-Frequency Data - The pulp futures market shows a slight increase in inventory and a decrease in closing prices, indicating a stable market environment [12] - Domestic paper prices are generally stable, with specific increases noted in whiteboard paper due to reduced production from smaller mills [20] Company Events and Announcements - Zhejiang Jingxing Paper Industry has been recognized as one of the top 500 innovative enterprises in Zhejiang Province, highlighting its strong innovation capabilities [25][26] - Guangxi Jin Gui Pulp and Paper has successfully launched a new production line, enhancing its capacity and market reach [28] Investment Strategy - The current phase of the industry is characterized by "profit recovery and long-term growth." It is recommended to focus on companies with pricing elasticity and those benefiting from policy support. The strategy includes monitoring price adjustments and production halts among leading companies [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Leading paper companies are intensively raising prices, with prices for whiteboard paper increasing by 14 RMB/ton, while prices for boxboard, corrugated paper, and white card paper remain stable. The price increase actions are concentrated, with Nine Dragons Paper raising prices for various paper types by 30-50 RMB/ton in February and planning another increase of 50 RMB/ton in March. The probability of price increases for white card paper after the Spring Festival is high, supported by a reduction in supply due to increased shutdowns of small paper mills [2][3][11] - The pulp inventory has rebounded to 146,400 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4,000 tons, while the closing price of pulp futures has decreased by 42 RMB/ton to 5,244 RMB/ton. The domestic prices for bleached needle pulp and bleached broadleaf pulp have slightly decreased, while international pulp prices remain stable. Short-term price fluctuations do not alter the tight balance of supply and demand, and cost pressures on paper product profitability are gradually easing [2][12] - The industry is experiencing a critical phase of "profit recovery + long-term growth," focusing on "price elasticity + policy benefits." The report suggests capitalizing on the price increase of leading companies and investing in companies benefiting from green transformation, as the establishment of a green energy technology exchange platform is expected to accelerate the industry's low-carbon transition [2][32] Summary by Sections Industry News - Nine Dragons Paper has announced price increases for corrugated paper and recycled paper across its eight bases, with prices rising by 30-50 RMB/ton starting February 2 [3][4][5][6] - The report highlights the importance of establishing a green energy technology exchange platform to assist traditional industries in their low-carbon transition, as suggested by representatives at the Shandong Provincial People's Congress [9] High-Frequency Data - The pulp futures market shows a marginal increase in inventory and a decrease in closing prices, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [12] - Domestic paper prices are generally stable, with specific increases noted in whiteboard paper prices [20] Company Events and Announcements - Jiangxi Jingxing Paper has been recognized as one of the top 500 innovative enterprises in Zhejiang Province, reflecting its strong innovation capabilities [25][26] - Guangxi Jin Gui Pulp and Paper has successfully launched a new production line, enhancing its capacity and contributing to the green development of the industry [28][30] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with price elasticity and those benefiting from green policies, while monitoring the progress of price increases and the operational status of paper companies [32]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing stable price trends ahead of the Spring Festival, with leading companies initiating "expectation management" for the post-holiday market [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments and Market Strategies - Nine major bases of Nine Dragons Paper Industries announced a price increase of 50 yuan/ton for key packaging paper types starting March 2 [1] - Several paper companies are implementing maintenance plans during the Spring Festival, urging downstream packaging firms to prepare production in advance [1] - Analysts suggest that these actions are standard market behaviors aimed at stabilizing prices during seasonal demand declines [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Profit Recovery - Price adjustments by large paper manufacturers provide market guidance, especially after several rounds of price declines [2] - The first quarter is expected to see reduced supply due to maintenance, with potential price increases post-Spring Festival supported by rising demand [2] - Leading companies like Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Co. have issued positive profit forecasts, indicating a recovery in the industry [2] Group 3: Industry Performance and Challenges - Among 24 A-share listed paper companies, 11 have disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with several predicting losses due to intensified competition and price declines [3] - The paper sector is at a critical stage of "profit recovery + long-term growth," focusing on price elasticity and benefiting from exports and policies [3] Group 4: Segment Analysis - Packaging paper is benefiting from e-commerce logistics and export demand, while cultural paper faces long-term demand pressures due to digitalization [4] - The supply-demand relationship in the packaging paper sector is becoming more balanced, suggesting continued price recovery [4] - Companies with integrated supply chains, such as Shandong Sun Paper Industry, are positioned favorably for profit resilience [4]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 玖龙纸业(2689.HK) 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 玖龙纸业：盈利改善超预期，浆纸协同优势放 大 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资评级 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_OtherReport] [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] FY26H1 业绩预告（截至 25 年 12 月 31 日的六个月）。公 司预计此期间盈利为 21.5-22.5 亿元（同比+21 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The report highlights the opportunity in the paper sector due to the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which enhances domestic purchasing power and reduces costs for imported raw materials like wood pulp [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with high wood pulp procurement costs, such as Zhongshun Jierou, and recommends Sun Paper for its integrated advantages in cultural paper production [5][6] - The report also emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in Q4 due to stabilized and rising pulp prices, alongside the release of new production capacity [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The light industry sector includes 167 listed companies with a total market value of 1,204.38 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 954.25 billion CNY [1] Market Performance - For the week of December 22-26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.53%. The light industry index gained 1.69%, ranking 16th among 28 Shenwan industries [10] - The paper sector saw a weekly increase of 4.47%, while the textile and apparel index rose by 2.86% [10] Key Company Recommendations - Sun Paper: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 1.10 CNY in 2023 to 1.48 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 14.25 to 10.60 [3] - Baiya Co.: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.54 CNY in 2023 to 1.28 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 38.94 to 16.49 [3] - Huali Group: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 2.74 CNY in 2023 to 3.97 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 19.24 to 13.27 [3] Raw Material Price Trends - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with MDI and TDI prices decreasing, while cotton prices have shown an upward trend [18][22] - The average price of wood pulp and various paper products is tracked, indicating a mixed performance with some prices stabilizing and others showing slight increases [42] Housing Market Data - The report highlights a significant decline in property sales, with a 39.1% year-on-year decrease in transactions among major cities [31] - Cumulative property sales area from January to November 2025 shows a 7.8% decline year-on-year [59] Consumer Goods and AI Applications - The report discusses the potential of AI applications in consumer goods, particularly in the context of new product launches and market expansion opportunities [6] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the paper sector due to favorable currency movements and suggests specific companies for investment based on their cost structures and market positions [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the paper industry Core Insights - In November, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while white cardboard continued to see price hikes, cultural paper prices stabilized, and black paper prices continued to rise. Profitability is slightly under pressure, with expectations for continued price increases in December for pulp and gradual transmission of price increases for white paper, while black paper prices are expected to maintain their upward trend [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Price: Strong willingness from paper mills to raise prices, stabilizing terminal prices. As of November 26, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper was 4731 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 3 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 7.78% [8][22] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap narrowed in November due to the initiation of new publishing tenders and improved order conditions for paper mills, with expectations for higher demand than supply in December [11][12] - Profitability: Rising costs and falling prices led to a decrease in profitability, with the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper at -7.78% as of November 26 [22] White Cardboard - Price: Continued price increases driven by price notifications from paper mills. As of November 26, the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard was 4194 CNY/ton, up 3.30% from October [25] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap is expected to widen due to increased production and slightly declining demand, impacting the potential for price increases [28][30] - Profitability: The gross margin for white cardboard improved due to price increases outpacing cost increases, with a margin increase of 2.72 percentage points compared to October [39] Boxboard - Price: Continuous price increases with an average market price of 3843 CNY/ton as of November 26, reflecting a 3.86% increase from October [40] - Supply and Demand: Industry demand is expected to decrease, leading to increased supply pressure. The supply-demand gap narrowed in November due to reduced supply from paper mills [43][46] - Profitability: Profitability remains under pressure as price increases do not fully offset rising costs [40] Waste Paper - Price: Continued price increases due to tight supply conditions, with overall supply decreasing [4][48] - Supply and Demand: Supply remains tight, with improved willingness to sell from packing stations [4][48] Wood Pulp - Price: Continued price increases for imported hardwood pulp, with domestic prices showing signs of slowing growth [6][15] - Supply and Demand: Demand is expected to remain stable in December, with an anticipated increase in domestic production [6][17]

【2025.12.01-2025.12.07】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 政策持续赋能，行业加快转型 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 大同证券研究中心 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 发布日期：2025.12.08 造纸行情走势图 包装纸提价持续兑现，多纸种价格稳步上行：本周包装纸涨价 潮持续深化，龙头纸企密集发布调价通知，瓦楞纸、箱板纸同 比分别上涨 17.65%、6.86%。终端价格同步走强，箱板纸、瓦 楞纸均价周环比均上涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸单周涨幅达 100 元/ 吨，白板纸因供给收紧（产能优化）、龙头提价计划带动，价 格稳步上行至3467元/吨。废纸成本支撑与下游刚性需求共振， 价格传导机制完全通畅，盈利修复逻辑持续强化。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸 ...