1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price changed from strong to weak. The supply of urea decreased periodically, with the daily output expected to fluctuate around 19 - 200,000 tons. The demand side saw a steady increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer, and the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. In the short term, the follow - up of downstream replenishment slowed down after the price increase, and the cost support weakened due to the decline in coal prices. The futures price may have a periodic correction risk. For the UR2601 contract, attention should be paid to the support level around 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand follow - up and export conditions [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Supply decreased periodically, with a weekly urea output of 1.3851 million tons (-2.25%), including 1.1362 million tons of coal - based urea and 0.2489 million tons of gas - based urea, and an average daily output of 198,000 tons. Several gas - head urea enterprises' devices are planned to stop production [5][21]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.53% (a week - on - week increase of 3.47%), and the finished product inventory was 683,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 61.66% (a week - on - week increase of 0.86%) [34]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons. Port inventory was 105,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days) [31]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the sentiment in the coal market weakened, and the profit of urea increased compared with the previous week [5]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread was strongly running, and the 01 basis strengthened slightly [5]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price was strongly running this week, and charts of market prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 to 2025 were provided [7][8]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price decreased, and charts of international urea prices (CFR Brazil, FOB Baltic, FOB Iran, FOB China) from 2019 to 2025 were provided [11][12]. - **Supply**: Supply decreased periodically. The weekly urea output decreased by 2.25%, and several gas - head urea enterprises' devices were planned to stop production, such as Sichuan Lutianhua Co., Ltd., Chongqing Jianfeng Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [17][21]. - **Inventory**: Upstream urea enterprise inventory decreased continuously on a week - on - week basis. Port inventory increased slightly, and the number of days of enterprises' pending orders increased slightly [27][31]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer increased steadily, and the finished product inventory accumulated slightly. The operating rate of melamine increased slightly [33][34]. - **Raw Material End**: This week, the sentiment in the coal market weakened, and charts of prices of various types of coal from 2021 to 2025 were provided [36][37]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread was strongly running, and the 01 basis strengthened slightly. Charts of 1 - 5 spreads and 01 basis from 2021 to 2025 were provided [44][45]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: Charts of spreads between liquid ammonia and urea, ammonium chloride and urea, etc. from 2021 to 2025 were provided [50][53].

Core Points - The quality supervision inspection in Siping City, Jilin Province, conducted in 2025, involved a total of 232 batches of industrial products, including 90 batches of fertilizers, 120 batches of finished oil, and 22 batches of gas appliances, with 4 batches failing the quality tests [3] Group 1: Fertilizers - Out of 90 batches of fertilizers inspected, 2 batches were found to be non-compliant, specifically a mixed fertilizer from a store in Lishu County and a compound fertilizer from a store in Shuangliao City [4][5] - The majority of the fertilizers, including various types such as controlled-release mixed fertilizers and stability compound fertilizers, passed the inspection, indicating a high compliance rate among local suppliers [4][5] Group 2: Finished Oil - Among the 120 batches of finished oil tested, one batch of 92-octane gasoline from a gas station in Lishu County was deemed non-compliant, while the rest of the samples, including various grades of gasoline and diesel, passed the quality checks [5][6] Group 3: Gas Appliances - In the inspection of 22 batches of gas appliances, one batch of bottled liquefied petroleum gas regulators failed the quality test, while the remaining products, including gas stoves and connection hoses, were compliant [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a layout period at the end of the year, with a high overall weighted operating rate and low price differentials indicating potential for a reversal [14] - The tire industry has shown signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to return to high growth by 2026 due to easing tariffs and recovering raw material costs [15] - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" is anticipated to accelerate industry transformation and upgrading [16] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry comprises 494 listed companies with a total market value of 54,965.58 billion and a circulating market value of 48,900.97 billion [2] Price and Performance - The report indicates a 2.0% absolute performance increase over one month, 28.6% over six months, and 25.6% over twelve months [3] - Key price increases this week include Henry natural gas (+18.5%), ethane (+10.4%), and octanol (+7.8%) [13] Sector Tracking - The tire sector is highlighted for its recovery, with nine out of eleven listed companies reporting profit growth in Q3 [15] - The agricultural chemical sector is noted for recent price increases in small pesticide varieties and the essential nature of fertilizers [7] - The phosphorous chemical sector is under observation for changes in industry dynamics due to favorable policies [7] Investment Strategies - Suggested investment routes include early-stage recovery stocks, scarce resource leaders, high-growth potential companies, and sectors with favorable supply-demand structures [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the fluorine, silicon, and phosphorus sectors for their valuation elasticity and potential for new cycle star products [17][18] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated discussions on PTA industry development to prevent excessive competition and promote stable operations [16] - The report notes that the petrochemical sector is expected to undergo significant changes due to new policies aimed at optimizing supply and enhancing technological innovation [19]

Group 1 - The core project of the company, the third 1 million tons/year potash fertilizer project at the Xiaodongbu mining area, has commenced operations [2] - The main transportation system for the Xiaodongbu mining project has been completed and is now operational [2] - The company successfully completed the linked trial feeding work recently [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully completed the commissioning of the main transportation system for its third 1 million tons/year potash fertilizer project at the Xiaodongbu mine site, and has recently conducted a successful trial run with linked feeding [1] Group 1 - Investors inquired about the operational status of the Xiaodongbu mine project [1] - The company confirmed that the main transportation system is operational and has completed trial runs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yara International has successfully launched its third million-ton potash project in Laos, marking the beginning of a new era with a production capacity of 300,000 tons of potash [1][2] Group 1: Project Launch and Capacity - The first batch of 60% powder potash products has been successfully transported from the production line, indicating the operational commencement of the main transportation system at the Xiaodongbu mining area [1] - The project was witnessed remotely by key officials from Laos and Yara International's executive team, highlighting the significance of this milestone [1] - The Xiaodongbu mining area is characterized by large reserves and high quality, serving as a core support for the company's capacity expansion and growth [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations and Future Plans - The Yara team has developed an integrated technical system to address complex geological conditions, ensuring high standards in mine construction [2] - The main inclined shaft belt transportation system spans 2,500 meters with a width of 1.8 meters, designed to handle a capacity of 3,000 tons per hour, with full automation for precise control [2] - The company aims to enter a stable production ramp-up phase, targeting a medium-term production goal of 5 million tons through continuous optimization of processes and supply chain improvements [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 08 日 尿素：震荡回落 国 泰 君 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,673 | 1,688 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,682 | 1,694 | -12 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 110,200 | 155,992 | -45792 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 110,200 | 155,992 | -45792 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 200,353 | 209, ...

Core Viewpoint - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) announced that its direct controlling shareholder, Syngenta Group (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited, will transfer all of its 3.699 billion shares, representing approximately 52.65% of the company's issued share capital, to Sinochem Hong Kong (Group) Limited at nominal value as part of a group restructuring [1] Group 1 - The share transfer agreement is set to take effect only when the regulatory conditions specified in the agreement are met [1] - Upon completion of the proposed transfer, Sinochem Hong Kong will become the direct controlling shareholder of Sinochem Fertilizer, holding 3.699 billion shares, which is approximately 52.65% of the company's issued share capital [1] - China National Chemical Corporation will continue to be the ultimate controlling shareholder of Sinochem Fertilizer [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's recent actions to investigate the U.S. food supply chain for potential price manipulation and anti-competitive behavior, particularly focusing on foreign companies and the implications of welfare fraud in Minnesota [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation into Food Supply Chain - Trump has ordered the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the U.S. food supply chain, specifically looking for price manipulation and anti-competitive practices that have increased costs for meat, seeds, and fertilizers [2]. - The executive order emphasizes that a safe and affordable food supply is crucial for national and economic security, and it highlights concerns over foreign-controlled entities potentially threatening the stability and affordability of the food supply [2][3]. - Recent data shows that retail prices for ground beef rose by 12.9% and steak by 16.6% over the past year, significantly outpacing the overall food inflation rate of 3.1% [3]. Group 2: Welfare Fraud in Minnesota - A series of welfare fraud cases in Minnesota have come to light, with the amount involved exceeding $1 billion, leading to significant political repercussions [4]. - The organization "Feeding Our Future" is implicated in defrauding the federal child nutrition program of over $250 million between 2020 and 2022, using false claims about providing meals to thousands of children [4][5]. - The investigation has led to 87 individuals being charged, with 61 convictions, primarily involving members of the Somali immigrant community in Minnesota [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The view on urea this week is a fluctuating decline. In the short term, the driving force is neutral. The futures price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, with support mainly coming from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous destocking of explicit inventory supports the price. In terms of valuation, the spot trading slowed down from Thursday to Sunday, and there may be policy pressure. The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. - For trading strategies, the price is expected to decline weakly as it approaches the upper limit of valuation with weakening trading volume. The 1 - 5 month spread is gradually entering a fluctuating pattern, and it is recommended to take a long position in the 5 - 9 spread when the price is low after the premium of the 05 contract is compressed. There is no cross - variety strategy for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640,000 tons. There are also plans for new production capacity in 2026 [23]. - **Production**: This week (20251127 - 1203), the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3851 million tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.37 million tons, a slight decrease from this period. The production profit is at the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [2][26]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The cash - flow cost and full cost of synthetic ammonia and urea in fixed - bed factories in Shanxi have been calculated, and the cash - flow cost of urea production using the gas - flow bed method has also been presented [29]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state [34]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The export volume of urea in 2025 shows an increasing trend, and the export profit of small - particle urea is also presented [40]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The demand for agricultural fertilizers varies by region and season [46][49]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers are presented through indicators such as production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate [53][54][55]. - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in Shandong are shown [57][59]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, as shown by data on panel export volume, real estate completion area, and construction area [61]. Inventory - Factory inventory: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased [2][67]. - Port inventory: As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5%. The current port collection rhythm is still slow [2][67]. International Urea - International urea prices are presented through the FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [71][72][73].