Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term urea operating rate may remain high due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled units and relatively high production profits. The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of local agricultural top - dressing demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories has shown obvious differences, and inventory changes vary. The overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and some factories are still fulfilling previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and the execution of previous export orders is approaching the end, so the overall de - stocking speed of urea may slow down. The Indian urea tender price far exceeds market expectations, boosting domestic market confidence. Short - term attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. The UR2509 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 197,992 lots, up 206 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,957; the exchange warehouse receipts are 2630 sheets, down 15 sheets [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Henan, it is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 1820 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 56 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 427.5 dollars/ton, up 32.5 dollars; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 410 dollars/ton, up 27.5 dollars [2] Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, up 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, down 5.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, up 0.94 percentage points; the daily urea output is 197,400 tons, up 2200 tons. The urea export volume is 0. The monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, up 0.58 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, down 0.43 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, down 216 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, down 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, down 300 tons [2] Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.08 million tons or 4.99%. As of July 10, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points. As of July 10, China's urea output was 1.3818 billion tons, an increase of 1530 tons or 1.12% from the previous week, with an average daily output of 197,400 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 percentage points [2] Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

芭田股份（002170）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润为4.5亿元—5.2亿元，比上年同期的1.5亿元增长 199.60%—246.20%。 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -140 million and -170 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the first half of 2025 is also projected to be between -140 million and -170 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - The main reasons for the anticipated loss include a decline in sales prices of key products like urea due to macroeconomic conditions and government policies affecting the fertilizer industry, as well as a significant decrease in export volumes [2] - The report period saw a continuous rise in international sulfur prices, leading to increased procurement costs for domestic sulfur and sulfuric acid, as well as a notable rise in potassium fertilizer prices, which contributed to higher costs for phosphate fertilizer products [2] - There was an increase in the provision for various impairment losses compared to the previous year [2]

截至7月14日收盘，中化化肥（00297.HK）报1.410港元，较上个交易日上涨2.92%，当日盘中最高价触 及1.420港元，创近一年新高。 资金流向方面，当日主力流入NaN万港元，流出NaN万港元，净流入1561.44万港元。 中化化肥控股有限公司(简称"中化化肥",前身为"中化香港控股有限公司")涵盖资源、研发、生产、分 销、农化服务全产业链。本公司于2005年7月成功收购ChinaFertilizer(Holdings)CompanyLimited及其附属 公司("化肥集团")后在香港联合交易所挂牌上市(股票代码:00297),是中国化肥行业首家在香港上市的企 业。中化化肥在国际化肥市场上具有重要影响力,是国际肥料工业协会(IFA)会员单位、国际植物营养研 究所(IPNI)全球17家理事单位之一。中化化肥拥有逾60年的化肥国际贸易经验和国际贸易关系网络实力, 是中国进口化肥的主渠道,为保障国内紧缺化肥资源供应、调剂余缺发挥骨干和建设性作用。中化化肥 拥有最齐全的大量元素、中微量元素肥料以及专用肥、缓控释肥、生物肥等新型肥料的研发、生产能 力。中化化肥在中国主要的农业省、农业县拥有自己建设的、国内最大 ...

六国化工（600470）公告，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-1.4亿元到-1.7亿 元，与上年同期相比出现亏损。预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净 利润为-1.4亿元到-1.7亿元。报告期内，受宏观经济环境和国家对化肥行业稳价保供、出口管控等政策 的影响，公司主要产品尿素等销售价格同比下跌，产品出口销量同比有较大幅度下降。同时，国际硫磺 价格持续攀升，国内硫磺、硫酸采购价格同比大幅上涨，钾肥采购价同比也有较大幅度上涨，导致公司 磷肥产品成本同比上升。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the potassium fertilizer market is expected to maintain a favorable outlook due to supply disruptions and stable demand, with significant price increases observed recently [1][4]. - Global potassium fertilizer supply is characterized by oligopoly, with major reserves located in Canada, Belarus, and Russia, accounting for 69% of total reserves [2]. - Major producers in the former Soviet Union have announced production cuts totaling over 1.8 million tons, impacting overall supply [2]. Group 2 - Global potassium fertilizer demand is projected to rise to 74.3 million tons by 2025, with significant demand from Asia, Latin America, and North America [3]. - Recent price increases for potassium fertilizers at various ports in China indicate a tightening supply situation, with prices rising by 5.9% to 4.48% across different types [1][4]. - The domestic demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to improve as the autumn fertilization season approaches, with stable prices for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate [5]. Group 3 - Phosphate rock supply remains tight due to rigid resource availability and long lead times for new capacity, with high prices for high-grade phosphate rock [5]. - The phosphate fertilizer export market may see improvements in 2025, with potential phased exports expected to enhance the export outlook [5]. - Companies to watch in the potassium fertilizer sector include Dongfang Iron Tower, Yahua International, and Salt Lake Industry, while in the phosphate sector, Ba Tian Co., Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group are highlighted [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

2—3月尿素农业需求及复合肥需求集中释放，一定程度上透支了4—5月的需求支撑力，导致尿素价格整体重心持续下移。其间，5月初出 口政策调整及6月中旬以伊冲突曾短暂推高期货价格，但随后均出现回落。整体上，在供大于需背景下，尿张英素涨势难以持续，6月下旬 至7月初价格逐步趋于平稳。 企业可采取差异化套保策略规避风险 供应方面，三季度新疆奥福化工、山东晋控日月新材料、安徽晋煤中能等企业将陆续投产，预计新增产能在150万吨；四季度潞安化工、 河南心连心等企业也将跟进投产，新增产能预计在130万吨。下半年随着新增产能进一步释放，叠加开工率回升，预计尿素日均产量将进 一步走高，或维持在19.5万～22万吨的水平。从产量数据看，2025年上半年尿素产量合计3600万吨，同比增加420万吨，增幅13.2%。预计 2025年全年尿素产量或突破7300万吨，同比增加800万～900万吨。 需求方面，农业、复合肥、工业及出口领域表现各有不同。 农业需求方面，受天气条件及作物种植周期阶段性影响，下半年将以小麦底肥需求为主。 复合肥需求受双重因素驱动：一是磷肥、钾肥阶段性供应紧张；二是尿素价格触底反弹，推动复合肥企业一季度开工积极性大幅 ...

中信建投期货能化研究员刘书源表示，近期国内尿素期现货价格同步上涨，是出口刺激、成本支撑与政 策扰动等因素共振的结果。7月8日，印度RCF尿素招标最低价为495美元／吨（东海岸），折合国内出 厂价为3300元／吨，与国内主流地区的现货价1800元／吨存在1500元／吨的差距。虽然首批配额订单基 本签完，且出口不能流向印度，但前期出口政策已经放松，较高的出口利润带动市场情绪升温，支撑国 内贸易商集港出口意愿。 上周，国内尿素现货价格大涨。截至7月10日，多地报价上调10~30元／吨不等。7月12日，国内部分企 业尿素报价上调5~20元／吨。与此同时，尿素期货价格同步上涨，市场看涨情绪升温。 新湖期货尿素研究员姚瑶表示，近一周尿素主销市场现货价格自1750元／吨上涨至1800元／吨以上，期 货价格也有所上涨，国际和国内市场均有利多因素。 国际方面，姚瑶分析称，最近一轮印度招标价大幅高于市场预期，东海岸价格达到495美元／吨。受印 标上涨等消息影响，中东和北非主销市场价格跳涨至480美元／吨左右，而近期公布的国内小颗粒尿素 出口指导价也达到440美元／吨，相当于主产区3000元／吨左右的现货价格。 "此外，尿素市场还 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) shows significant growth potential with a projected net profit increase of 170% to 244% for the first half of 2025, driven by stable production and rising sales of potassium fertilizers [3][6]. Trading Information Summary - On July 11, Yara International's stock closed at 32.68 yuan, up 1.81%, with a turnover rate of 1.88%, a trading volume of 152,600 shares, and a transaction value of 495 million yuan [1]. - The fund flow on the same day indicated a net inflow of 22.69 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 19.16 million yuan [2][6]. Performance Disclosure Highlights - Yara International forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 730 million yuan and 930 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 170% to 244%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be in the same range, with a basic earnings per share of 0.80 to 1.02 yuan [3][6]. Company Announcement Summary - Yara International announced that Huineng Group has become the largest shareholder after acquiring 46,202,560 shares (5% of total equity) from Zhongnong Group, bringing its total shareholding to 14.05%. Huineng Group has committed not to transfer its shares for 18 months and has provided assurances to maintain the company's independence and reduce related party transactions [4][5][6]. - The financial data of Huineng Group from 2021 to 2023 shows total assets increasing from 92.83 billion yuan to 134.74 billion yuan, with net profits of 10.68 billion yuan, 20.22 billion yuan, and 20.22 billion yuan respectively [4].