2025年04月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：风险偏好回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：寻底继续 | 7 | | 锌：区间整理 | 9 | | 铅：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价或窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修基差，成本与负反馈盘面博弈 | 11 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 13 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势震荡 | 15 | | 多晶硅：消息面发酵，盘面亦偏弱 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：成本支撑趋弱，关注高基差下采买需求 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 20 | | 硅铁：低位震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：低位震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025-04-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 短期保持定力，适时加码对冲 观点分享： 今年首次以经济为主题的政治局会议，定调外部环境变化后政策方向：短期以加快落实 前期既定的政策为主，但政策储备充足，未来必要时将择机加码对冲。从高频数据跟踪来看， 中美港口吞吐量数据稳中有落，海运费呈季节性回落，韩国旬度出口增速在下旬显著回落， 故外贸影响加大，但尚未到冲击最大之时。国内日度地产销售开始呈现压力。整体上预计 4 月宏观数据趋弱，但下行幅度尚温和。鉴于此，预计近期政策以政治局会议强调的结构性政 策工具落地为主。后期，等待贸易摩擦对经济的真实影响更确定，关税走向更明朗和稳定后， 国内政策或进一步加码，包括降准降息等总量政策的空间有望打开。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 贵金属 | ★★★★ | 贵金属：我们认为目前的调整仅是战术层面的，战略层面黄金的趋势上行难言轻易结束 ，这 也将导致黄金相对调整幅度有限。短期，我们尤其需要关注美国关税谈判进程，将高度影响 黄金分时表 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of -0.1700 yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 6.25% compared to -0.1600 yuan in Q1 2024, and a significant drop from 0.5100 yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The total revenue for Q1 2025 was 6.86 billion yuan, down 43.45% from 12.13 billion yuan in Q1 2024 and a decrease from 27.84 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was -1.55 billion yuan, which is a 7.64% decline compared to -1.44 billion yuan in Q1 2024, contrasting sharply with a profit of 4.64 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The return on equity for Q1 2025 was -1.33%, a decline of 19.82% from -1.11% in Q1 2024, and a significant drop from 3.58% in Q1 2023 [1] Shareholder Information - The top ten unrestricted shareholders collectively hold 26,187.18 million shares, accounting for 30.21% of the circulating shares, with a decrease of 402.3 thousand shares compared to the previous period [2] - The largest shareholder is Shenzhen Shengtun Group Co., Ltd., holding 5,777.70 million shares, representing 6.67% of the total share capital, with no change in holdings [3] - Other notable shareholders include Shenzhen Shengtun Huize Trading Co., Ltd. with 5,428.23 million shares (6.26%), and Shenzhen Shengtun Yixing Technology Co., Ltd. with 2,990.80 million shares (3.45%), both of which also reported no change in holdings [3] Dividend Distribution - The company has announced that there will be no distribution or transfer of dividends this time [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in net loss for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 686 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 43.44% [1] - The net loss for the first quarter was 155 million yuan, slightly higher than the net loss of 144 million yuan in the same quarter last year [1]

Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...

碳酸锂周报 供应压力仍存，价格延续偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/4/28 需求端：4月整体排产预计环比持平。3月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为118.3GWh，环比增长18.0%，同比增长54.3%。动力和 其他电池合计出口23.0GWh，环比增长8.8%，同比增长75.3%。动力和其他电池销量为115.4GWh，环比增长28.3%，同比增长 64.9%。以旧换新政策出台和政策端新能源车购置税的延期也有望持续支撑中国新能源车市场销量的较快增长。 库存：本周碳酸锂库存呈现累库状态，工厂库存周内增加2860吨至32560吨，市场库存减少3722吨，广期所库存增加2233吨。 ⚫ 策略建议： 从供应端来看，碳酸锂产量稳增，3月产量环比增加24%，近期锂盐厂稳定生产，3月锂精矿进口量环比减少6%，3月锂盐进口环 比增加47%，预计后续南美锂盐进口量保持高位。从需求端来看，受储能和电动车终端增速的带动，下游需求较好，但美国对等关税 政策落地对锂电池出口形成负面 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium has reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance for Q1 2025, projecting a profit of 82 million to 123 million RMB, compared to a loss of 3.897 billion RMB in the same period last year, indicating a substantial recovery from its "darkest hour" in 2024 [1][3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Tianqi Lithium recorded a revenue of 13.063 billion RMB, a decline of 67.75% year-on-year, and a net loss of 7.905 billion RMB, marking a drastic increase in losses by 208.32% compared to the previous year [3][4] - The company’s Q1 2025 performance shows a projected non-GAAP net profit of 32 million to 48 million RMB, a stark contrast to the 3.917 billion RMB loss in Q1 2024 [1][4] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the Q1 earnings forecast, Tianqi Lithium's AH shares experienced a strong rally, with H shares rising over 10% at one point and closing up 2.52% on April 24, 2025 [1][3] Industry Context - The lithium market has faced downward pressure due to falling lithium prices, with the average spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 dropping by 65% to 93,000 RMB per ton [4][8] - Despite the challenges, the demand for lithium remains optimistic, driven by the growth in the electric vehicle sector, with a projected 19% increase in lithium carbonate demand in 2025 [8][14] Strategic Outlook - Tianqi Lithium aims to enhance production capacity and accelerate technological transformation in 2025, focusing on various research directions including resource utilization and new battery materials [15][16] - The company has a robust resource base, with over 55 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) and plans to expand its production capabilities significantly [15][16]

4月25日，碳酸锂期货主力合约LC2507收报68180元/吨。早在4月21日，碳酸锂期货便跌破7万元/吨大 关，收于6.9万元/吨，此后连续4个交易日始终未能有效收复这一关口，并不断刷新年内新低。今年以 来，碳酸锂期货价格累计跌幅已超过12%。 碳酸锂 2507 LC2507 68180 -220 -0.32% 68840 10.82万 68260 开盘 最高 成交量 昨结 68400 74.00亿 最低 67960 成交额 持仓 现量 217370 仓差 4914 l 月Ｋ 周Ｋ 分时 日 K 周期 五日 (o ▼ MA5: 68460.00 10: 69506.00 叠加 ▼ 前复权 ▼ MA 20: 70942.00 30: 72214.66 82086 81800 74650 70932 67214 ▼ VOLUME:10.82万 MA5:15.62万 10:10.53万 VOL 21.62 万 MACD ▼ (12,26,9) DIF: - 1686.50 DEA: - 1549.11 MACD 840 mp # . . -1686 2024/12/31 2025/04/25 市场的变化，往往首先 ...

碳酸锂：需求疲软叠加成本下移，偏弱运行延续 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 2025 年 4 月 28 日 商 品 研 究 智利国家经济检察院（FNE）于当地时间 24 日批准了智利国家矿业公司（Codelco）与智利矿业化工 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 68,180 | -120 | -2,000 | -2,380 | -5,760 | -11,080 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 108,177 | 3,793 | 13,417 | 76,511 | 94,785 ...

Group 1: Lithium Market Overview - The lithium sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the weekly contract price for lithium carbonate in Wuxi dropping by 2.84% to 68,500 yuan/ton, and the price in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreasing by 2.85% to 68,200 yuan/ton [1] - Lithium concentrate prices have also declined, with the price reported at 793 USD/ton, a decrease of 15 USD/ton compared to the previous period [1] - The overall supply remains high despite some small lithium salt manufacturers reducing production due to cost pressures, while major manufacturers are improving efficiency through technological upgrades [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market sentiment is pessimistic due to an oversupply situation, with the North American lithium mining development potentially accelerating following the inclusion of the Smackover lithium mine in a key mineral fast-track project [2] - Demand is expected to weaken as the market approaches a traditional off-peak season, compounded by concerns over U.S. tariff policies affecting orders for energy storage batteries and lithium iron phosphate [2] - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported between 68,200 and 71,400 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.3% decrease from the previous week [2] Group 3: Cobalt Market Insights - The cobalt market is showing a relatively strong performance, with the demand primarily driven by essential purchases, while supply remains stable with most smelting plants maintaining normal production levels [3] - The average price for electrolytic cobalt was reported between 232,000 and 249,000 yuan/ton, which is a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the previous week [3] - Cobalt salt manufacturers are operating at high capacity, but the market is entering a buffer period as downstream enterprises have largely completed their inventory replenishment [3] Group 4: Price Trends in Related Materials - The average price for lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.2% to a range of 31,900 to 33,400 yuan/ton [4] - The average price for ternary materials (622) also saw a slight decline of 0.1%, ranging from 107,800 to 118,600 yuan/ton [4]