Group 1 - The global lithium metal market is experiencing a significant rebound, with related stocks showing strong price increases, such as Albemarle (ALB.US) up 4.98% and Lithium Argentina AG (LAR.US) up 7.31%, both reaching multi-year highs [1] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce upgraded the ratings of Albemarle and Lithium Argentina from "in line with the industry" to "outperform," setting target prices at $200 and $7.75 respectively, while also emphasizing that the current rise in lithium prices is just the first round of a prolonged supply tightness cycle [1] - Analyst Ben Isaacson predicts that lithium demand will reach 2.8 million tons by 2030, with a range of 2.5 to 3.2 million tons under different scenarios, and a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14% over the next five years [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding Albemarle's balance sheet are gradually dissipating, as the company has achieved leverage optimization for four consecutive quarters and is expected to reach positive free cash flow of $300-400 million by the end of 2025 [2] - The stock price of Albemarle is anticipated to see significant upward movement due to the increasing visibility of industry turning points and ongoing self-rescue measures [2] - For Lithium Argentina, the Caucharí project produced 34,100 tons of lithium carbonate in line with guidance, with an operating rate of 85%, and cash operating costs have fallen below $6,000 per ton, ensuring positive free cash flow at any stage of the industry cycle [2] Group 3 - The analyst maintains a "in line with the industry" rating for Lithium Americas (LAC.US), as the company currently has no lithium production or revenue sources, and this situation is unlikely to change in the coming years [3] - The inability of Lithium Americas to benefit from potential future increases in lithium prices raises questions about the justification for a higher rating compared to peers [3]

Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. experienced a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 71.37 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.105 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 4.84%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 149.641 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on March 2, 2000, and listed on August 10, 2010, is primarily engaged in the research, development, production, and sales of various deep-processed lithium products. The revenue composition includes lithium series products (56.78%), lithium battery series products (35.52%), and others (7.70%) [1] Group 2 - A fund under Bank of China Securities holds a significant position in Ganfeng Lithium, with the Bank of China Value Selection Mixed Fund (002601) owning 75,000 shares, accounting for 3.59% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 255,000 CNY [2] - The Bank of China Value Selection Mixed Fund was established on April 29, 2016, with a current size of 127 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 5.79%, ranking 2848 out of 8836 in its category, while the one-year return is 52.55%, ranking 2196 out of 8091. Since inception, the fund has achieved a return of 56.46% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of the Bank of China Value Selection Mixed Fund is Lin Bocheng, who has been in the position for 7 years and 308 days, managing assets totaling 1.186 billion CNY, with the best return during his tenure being 110.75% and the worst being -48.35% [3] - Co-manager Zhao Yingfang has been in the role for 296 days, overseeing assets of 127 million CNY, with both the best and worst return during her tenure being 41.67% [3]

Group 1 - The lithium mining index increased by 4% during the trading session, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - Key stocks in the lithium sector showed strong performance, with Tibet Summit reaching the daily limit, while China Minmetals Resources and Ganfeng Lithium both rose over 8% [1] - Other companies such as Tibet Mining and Salt Lake Industry also experienced gains of over 5% [1]

Group 1: Key Insights on Tin Market - Tin prices broke through 350,000 yuan per ton this week but retreated due to tightening market sentiment ahead of the U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to profit-taking by some investors [1][3] - Domestic social inventory saw a significant decrease of 12.61% week-on-week, primarily due to slow recovery in tin ore supply and uncertainties in production from major producing countries, indicating a persistent tight raw material situation [1][3] - Demand for tin is expected to remain strong, driven by high capital expenditure in AI, with a positive outlook for tin prices in the future [1][3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a buy on copper equities during dips, as the market anticipates a tightening supply-demand situation in 2026 due to expected production cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources [2] - For aluminum, the recommendation is to buy on dips, as strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks provide support despite current consumption pressures and rising social inventories [3] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, as supply constraints are expected due to new government policies limiting domestic production [4] Group 3: Investment Suggestions - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 13 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货涨停，主要是由于 1 月 9 日中国财政部与税务总局宣布，自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%； 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。短期锂电池有抢出口预期， 这将令一季度传统淡季不淡，下游补货预期增加， ...

锂价狂飙势头仍在持续。 1月12日，碳酸锂主力合约继续飙升，当日一字涨停(涨幅为9%)，报收156060元／吨。碳酸锂现货与期 货价格保持联动，"我的钢铁网"数据显示，1月12日，电池级碳酸锂(晚盘)均价报153400元／吨，吨价 较前一个交易日上涨13800元，再次创下近一年来新高。 "碳酸锂价格的强势拉升，或与锂电池出口退税政策调整有关。"相关人士告诉上海证券报记者，电池产 品增值税出口退税率下调或大幅提升锂电下游企业备货热情，也进一步影响到本就"紧平衡"的碳酸锂市 场。 出口退税政策调整 电池企业备货热情提升 进入2026年，碳酸锂主力合约在5个交易日内累计涨幅达20.06%。从记者了解的情况来看，碳酸锂"开 年就大涨"的情况已超出业内预期。 "从下游需求和市场热度来看，行业肯定是回暖了不少，但锂价能涨这么快，的确也没想到。"青海某年 产万吨级碳酸锂企业人士告诉记者，从实际销售价格来看，目前还没有15万元/吨那么高，但按照期货 及现货价格走势来看，售价超过15万元应该用不了多长时间。 2025年下半年以来，在储能市场需求高速增长的拉动下，碳酸锂价格持续上涨，行业供需进入"紧平 衡"。有业内人士表示，在" ...

Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate continues to surge, with the main contract reaching 156,060 yuan per ton, marking a 9% increase on January 12, 2026 [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 153,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 13,800 yuan from the previous trading day, setting a new high for the past year [1] - The strong rise in lithium prices is attributed to adjustments in export tax rebate policies for lithium battery products, which has increased the enthusiasm for inventory among downstream companies [2][3] Group 2 - The cumulative increase in the main lithium carbonate contract over five trading days reached 20.06%, exceeding industry expectations for the start of the year [2] - The adjustment in export tax rebates, effective from April 1, 2026, will lower the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%, leading to increased procurement activities among battery manufacturers [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a global demand of 202,000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 32% [6] Group 3 - Recent breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology have enhanced the supply security of lithium resources, with a new method achieving over 98% lithium recovery rate from brine [4] - The acquisition activities in the lithium industry are on the rise, with companies like Salt Lake Co. and Shengxin Lithium Energy making significant investments in lithium resources, reflecting optimism about the future of the renewable energy sector [5] - The production and sales momentum in the lithium mining sector is strong, with expectations for improved financial performance in the first quarter of 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by adjustments in battery export tax policies, leading to increased demand and expectations for downstream procurement [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 12, the domestic commodity futures market saw a strong performance, with lithium carbonate main contracts hitting a limit up of 9%, reaching 156,060 yuan/ton, marking the first time in two years that it surpassed the 150,000 yuan threshold [1]. - Since early December, lithium carbonate prices have risen sharply, breaking through multiple price barriers, and have rebounded over 150% from the low point in June of the previous year [1]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 152,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate was at 148,500 yuan/ton, both showing significant daily increases [1]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The recent price increase is attributed to the adjustment of export tax policies for battery products, which will see a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation by January 1, 2027 [2]. - Analysts believe that this policy change will directly impact corporate profitability, prompting a rush to export before the tax benefits diminish, thus driving up lithium carbonate prices [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand from the new energy commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors has significantly exceeded expectations, shifting industry sentiment from "oversupply" to "tight balance" [3]. - The first quarter is expected to show strong demand, with prices likely to maintain a robust upward trend, although there are concerns about potential cost pressures if prices exceed 200,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There are warnings that speculative trading in lithium carbonate could lead to a zero-sum game within the supply chain, potentially distorting investment signals and exacerbating long-term oversupply risks [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Measures - To maintain stability in the lithium carbonate futures market and mitigate potential risks, regulatory bodies have implemented various measures, including adjustments to trading fees and limits [3].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate continues to surge, driven by changes in export tax policies and strong demand from the battery sector, leading to a "tight balance" in the market [1] Group 1: Price Trends - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate surged by 9%, closing at 156,060 yuan/ton, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reported at 153,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 13,800 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The cumulative increase in the main contract for lithium carbonate over five trading days reached 20.06% [1] - The price of lithium carbonate has risen from 80,000 yuan to over 150,000 yuan within two months, indicating a strong demand-supply relationship [1] Group 2: Export Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate by January 1, 2027 [1] - Battery manufacturers are expected to accelerate procurement plans to avoid rising costs, leading to increased demand for lithium carbonate [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - A research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has achieved breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, enhancing the efficiency of lithium recovery from brine [1] - The new extraction technology has been successfully applied in a demonstration line capable of producing battery-grade lithium carbonate with a recovery rate exceeding 98% [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 202,000 tons in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 32%, as the demand from the energy storage sector is expected to surpass that from the power battery sector for the first time [1] - The supply side is constrained due to previous low lithium prices, which slowed the progress of some lithium mining projects, while domestic production is expected to increase from salt lakes and the resumption of lithium mica mining in Jiangxi [1] Group 5: Industry Sentiment - The rising prices and strong demand have led to increased confidence in the lithium industry, with many companies expecting significant profit growth [1] - Nearly 50% of surveyed companies believe that the price of lithium carbonate could reach 200,000 yuan per ton, with 30% anticipating prices could rise to 250,000 yuan or more [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to surge, driven by supply-demand dynamics and changes in export tax policies, leading to increased enthusiasm for inventory procurement among downstream battery manufacturers [3][5][9]. Group 1: Price Trends - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate reached a record high of 156,060 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 9% [3]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 153,400 yuan per ton, up by 13,800 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - In the first five trading days of 2026, the cumulative increase in lithium carbonate prices reached 20.06% [4]. Group 2: Export Tax Policy Impact - The adjustment of export tax rates for battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, is expected to drive battery manufacturers to stock up in advance, thereby increasing demand for lithium carbonate [5][10]. - The export tax rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely eliminated by January 1, 2027 [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a "tight balance" due to high demand from the energy storage sector, with global demand projected to reach 202,000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 32% [9]. - The supply side is constrained as previous low lithium prices have slowed the progress of some lithium mining projects, limiting the growth of lithium salt production capacity [10]. Group 4: Industry Confidence and Innovations - Recent breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology have bolstered confidence in the lithium industry, with a new method achieving over 98% lithium recovery from brine [6]. - The enthusiasm for mergers and acquisitions in the lithium sector is rising, reflecting optimism about the future growth potential of the renewable energy industry [7]. Group 5: Inventory and Production Outlook - As of January 8, domestic lithium carbonate inventory was approximately 110,000 tons, with a slight increase from the previous week, primarily concentrated in trading and smelting sectors [11]. - Companies are optimistic about their performance in the first quarter, with many expecting lithium carbonate prices to exceed 200,000 yuan per ton in the near future [11].