长按即可参与 "只要我不卖，就割不到我"——这句话曾激励无数投资者，但也道出不少人心中的无奈。它背后 折射出一个朴素的投资信念：投资嘛，只要长期拿着，总会回本的。但当经历投资周期的洗礼 后，许多投资者却发现，财富并没有随着时间流逝而增长，长期的持有反而变成了长期的苦难。 为什么我们持有这么久，却拿不到时间的回报？长期投资是市场的谎言吗？今天我们来谈谈，为 什么持有并不等于回本，为什么长期的投资对于绝大多数人变成了痛苦的无奈之举。 乐视网的案例堪称经典。2015年，作为"互联网+"概念的领军企业，乐视网风光无限，市值一度突 破1700亿元。彼时，无数投资者坚信只要持有这样一家"伟大的公司"，财富自然水到渠成。然 而，当公司治理出现问题，当商业模式经不起考验，当财务造假曝光，一切美好愿景都化为泡 影。2020年，乐视网最终退市，众多坚持"长期持有"的投资者血本无归。个股投资风险巨大，经 营失败、行业周期变迁或公司治理问题可能让长期持有者一无所获。 不仅是个股如此，即使是集合了众多股票的主动管理型基金，也并非"永生"。市场竞争激烈，投 资策略失效、管理团队变动等因素都可能导致基金业绩长期低迷，甚至最终走向清盘。不管 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" [4][25][28] Core Views - Tencent's revenue growth accelerated, driven by strong performance in advertising and gaming, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 11% in Q4 2024 [1][11] - The company is actively investing in AI applications, with R&D expenses increasing by 16% year-on-year to 31.4 billion yuan in Q4 2024, indicating a commitment to AI development [2][14] - The gaming segment showed robust growth, with online gaming revenue rising by 20% year-on-year, supported by a strong pipeline of evergreen games [3][17] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 3% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in payment services [4][23] - The company plans to increase its annual dividend by 32% to 4.50 HKD per share and intends to repurchase shares worth at least 80 billion HKD [8][25] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, Tencent achieved revenue of 172.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, primarily driven by advertising and gaming [1][11] - Adjusted operating profit for Q4 2024 was 59.5 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, with a Non-IFRS net profit of 55.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% increase [1][11] R&D and Capital Expenditure - R&D expenses in Q4 2024 reached 31.4 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [2][14] - Capital expenditures surged to 36.6 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a remarkable increase of 386% year-on-year, with projections for 2025 to account for 12-15% of revenue [2][14] Gaming and Advertising - Online gaming revenue for Q4 2024 was 49.2 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with deferred revenue at 100.1 billion yuan, up 16% [3][17] - Advertising revenue in Q4 2024 was 35 billion yuan, growing 17% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for video accounts and mini-programs [22][26] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached 56.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a 3% year-on-year increase, with signs of recovery in payment services [4][23] - AI cloud revenue is expected to nearly double in 2024, reflecting the company's strategic focus on AI capabilities [4][23] Shareholder Returns - Tencent plans to increase its annual dividend by 32% to 4.50 HKD per share and aims to repurchase shares worth at least 80 billion HKD [8][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 583, indicating a potential upside of 8.0% from the current price of HKD 540 [1][4][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are expected to rapidly integrate into Tencent's ecosystem, contributing to revenue growth. The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected to reach RMB 713.8 billion, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth [2][8]. - The report emphasizes strong performance in various segments, including a 20% increase in gaming revenue and a 60%+ growth in video advertising revenue, driven by AI enhancements [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: RMB 609,015 million - 2024: RMB 660,257 million - 2025E: RMB 713,818 million - 2026E: RMB 767,880 million - 2027E: RMB 818,920 million - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline gradually from 9.8% in 2023 to 6.6% in 2027 [3][52]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 157,688 million - 2024: RMB 222,703 million - 2025E: RMB 244,774 million - 2026E: RMB 268,648 million - 2027E: RMB 289,453 million - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 31.91 in 2027 [3][52]. Segment Performance - The report details segment performance for Q4 2024: - Total revenue reached RMB 172,446 million, up 11% year-on-year - Online gaming revenue increased by 23% year-on-year, with local games contributing significantly - Marketing services revenue grew by 17%, driven by video and search advertising [8][9]. - The report notes that the gross margin improved to 53% due to the growth of high-margin businesses [7][8]. Valuation - The report estimates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times for 2025, with a projected share buyback of HKD 80 billion and dividends of HKD 41 billion, enhancing shareholder returns [7][8].