"对我们这样中等甚至偏小规模的基金公司来说，现在发产品，采用券结模式发产品的策略很现实：必须多找几家券结方，每家卖一点，量才能起来。"深 圳一家基金公司渠道人士的肺腑之言，道出了2025年公募基金销售的真实处境。 这一务实的生存策略，正对应着全行业的深刻变局：2025年，在全市场1672只新成立的基金中，采用券商结算模式的比例首次突破50%；2021年～2025 年，采用券结模式的偏股混合型基金占比逐年攀升，2025年产品数量也首次超过了传统银行结算模式。此外，更多存续的老券结基金正在将单只产品最多 3家券结方的合作额度用满。 策略与数据的交织，清晰勾勒出在新的游戏规则下，中小型公募基金与中小券商之间，一场围绕生存与发展的双向奔赴正在系统性地展开。中小券商加速 布局：规模和数量双重跃升 理解这场变局，需从基础设施的变革说起。每只基金投资运作时，在传统的银行结算模式下，基金管理人的交易指令需先送达托管银行，经其审核后再传 至交易所，资金清算也通过银行完成。而在券商交易结算模式下，交易指令直接由合作的证券公司处理，相应的资金与证券交收也直接在券商与中国结算 公司之间完成，托管银行不再承担结算职责。两种模式最核心的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for global markets, suggesting that investors should maintain stock allocations while diversifying to hedge against high valuation risks [6][13]. Core Insights - Global stock markets are experiencing broad gains, with the Spanish market up nearly 70% in USD terms, indicating a significant geographical and sectoral expansion in market performance [1][2]. - The current high valuation levels, particularly in the US market with a P/E ratio exceeding 22, suggest that future returns will primarily stem from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3][4]. - Earnings growth expectations for 2026 are optimistic, with the US projected to achieve a 12% increase in earnings, driven by margin improvements and the growth of the technology sector [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 2025 has seen a more diversified market performance, with technology and AI sectors standing out, and for the first time since the financial crisis, most major stock markets have outperformed the US [2][8]. - The geographical breadth of market performance is expanding, with value stocks in Europe outperforming the market while US growth stocks regain dominance [3][10]. Earnings Growth Expectations - The report anticipates strong earnings growth across regions in 2026, with the US expected to benefit from margin improvements and a robust technology sector [5][7]. - European markets, despite current profit weaknesses, are expected to improve as the euro strengthens against the dollar and energy sector impacts diminish [5]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios to mitigate high valuation risks while maintaining stock allocations, as global markets are catching up to the US, presenting new opportunities [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification across geography, factors, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns, especially in light of the concentration risk posed by a few leading companies in the US market [12][13].

今年5月7日，证监会发布了《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》）， 不仅重塑了中国资产管理行业的底层运行逻辑，更将 "基准" 的核心地位提升至前所未有的高 度。 《行动方案》明确要求基金产品清晰界定业绩比较基准，切实发挥其确定产品定位、明晰投资策 略、表征投资风格、衡量产品业绩、约束投资行为的作用。同时建立基于业绩比较基准的"薪酬 激励 + 费率调节" 双重机制，将投资者利益与管理人利益绑定——对三年以上产品业绩低于业绩 比较基准超过10个百分点的基金经理，要求其绩效薪酬应当明显下降；对三年以上产品业绩显著 超过业绩比较基准的基金经理，可以合理适度提高其绩效薪酬。对新设立的主动管理权益类基金 大力推行基于业绩比较基准的浮动管理费收取模式，对符合一定持有期要求的投资者，根据其持 有期间产品业绩表现确定具体适用管理费率水平。如持有期间产品实际业绩表现符合同期业绩比 较基准的，适用基准档费率；明显低于同期业绩比较基准的，适用低档费率；显著超越同期业绩 比较基准的，适用升档费率。 这从制度层面推动基金公司与基金经理主动重视基准，引导产品回归 "风险与收益对称、策略与 定位匹配" 的本质属性，同时为 ...

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is improving, leading to a recovery in investor confidence, but fund performance shows a differentiated trend [1] - Investors should clarify their investment positioning based on risk tolerance, investment horizon, and return expectations before selecting funds [1][2] - For conservative investors, it is recommended to allocate funds primarily to bond funds or mixed-asset funds to balance risk and return [1] Group 2 - For those seeking to outperform the market, actively managed funds should be prioritized, with a focus on the long-term performance of fund managers [2] - Constructing a diversified portfolio is crucial for enhancing return stability and mitigating risks associated with market volatility [2][3] - Investors should be mindful of fund liquidity and fee levels, as these factors can significantly impact overall investment costs and returns [3] Group 3 - Dynamic adjustment of the investment portfolio is necessary to adapt to market changes and ensure sustainable returns [3] - Avoiding common investment pitfalls, such as chasing hot funds or frequent trading, can help reduce potential losses [3] - A scientific approach to fund selection, portfolio construction, and dynamic adjustment is essential for capitalizing on market opportunities and achieving desired returns [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in the investment landscape, where passive index funds, particularly ETFs, have gained prominence over active equity funds since 2021, reflecting a growing preference for beta returns over alpha returns [2][3][19] - The rise of passive index investing is attributed to its ability to provide market-average returns with lower fees and reduced volatility, making it more appealing to individual investors [10][19] - Data shows that from 2022 to 2024, active equity funds faced challenges such as net value drawdowns and shrinking scales, while passive index funds experienced substantial growth, especially during market rallies [3][19] Group 2 - The performance comparison of different types of equity funds over the past five years indicates that passive index funds have lower average maximum drawdowns and positive returns across various time frames, demonstrating their risk-return advantage [7][19] - The top-performing index funds in recent years have shown remarkable returns, with some achieving over 100% growth in one year, underscoring the effectiveness of passive investment strategies [9][16] - Active management remains relevant, as some actively managed funds have outperformed their benchmarks, particularly in volatile market conditions, suggesting that both passive and active strategies can complement each other in a diversified investment approach [15][18]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **U.S. public fund market**, which has surpassed **$30 trillion** in total assets as of the first quarter of 2025. The market share of passive management funds exceeded that of active management funds for the first time in early 2024, reaching **53%** by April 2025. The total size of ETF products reached **$10 trillion**, growing nearly **50 times** over the past 20 years [1][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **fee structure** in the U.S. public fund market has significantly decreased due to the rise of passive strategies. From 2004 to 2024, the asset-weighted average fee dropped from **0.72% to 0.34%**, a reduction of over **50%**. Active management funds have an average fee of **0.59%**, while passive funds have a much lower fee of **0.11%** [1][10]. - Active management strategies are attempting to adapt to the passive wave through innovations such as index optimization and active ETFs. However, they face challenges in consistently outperforming passive funds, with a win rate of only **42%** for active funds compared to passive funds in 2024 [1][15]. - The **alpha levels** of small active management funds have significantly declined since before 2006, while large funds have maintained stable alpha levels. It is projected that the market share of active management funds will decrease to **17%** over the next 15 years, reaching a state of equilibrium [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - The **innovation direction** in the U.S. public fund industry includes the automation of index design, active ETFs, and new product and service models aimed at personalized asset allocation, which is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of around **10%** over the next decade [3][25]. - The **impact of AI and quantitative investment** is notable in reducing service costs and enhancing professionalism in financial services. These technologies help meet client needs more effectively and improve overall service quality [3][33]. - The **performance of different asset classes** shows that passive strategies dominate in equity funds, while active strategies still have room to operate in bond funds and certain international contexts [9]. - The **Smart Beta strategy** has an average fee of **0.16%**, with the lowest fees found in passive strategies, indicating a competitive landscape driven by investor preference for low-fee products [12][13]. - The **current trends in fintech** indicate a diversification and innovation in investment strategies, with a focus on core industries like banking expected to perform well in the next three years [2][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the significant trends and insights within the U.S. public fund market and the broader financial services landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misconception that long-term holding of investments guarantees returns, highlighting that many investors face losses despite prolonged holding periods due to various risks associated with individual stocks and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Individual Stocks and Long-Term Holding - The case of LeTV exemplifies the risks of long-term holding, where the company's market value plummeted from over 170 billion yuan in 2015 to delisting in 2020, resulting in significant losses for investors who believed in the company's potential [1]. - Individual stock investments carry substantial risks, including operational failures, industry cycle changes, and governance issues, which can lead to long-term holders ending up with nothing [1]. Group 2: Active Management Funds - Active management funds are not immune to poor performance; competitive market conditions and strategy failures can lead to long-term underperformance or even fund liquidation [2]. - Historical trends show that many funds that perform well during bull markets may struggle in subsequent periods, leading to prolonged losses for investors [2]. Group 3: Index Funds and Systemic Risks - Even index funds, which are generally considered safer due to diversification, can experience significant declines, as evidenced by the drop of the ChiNext Index from approximately 3100 points in early 2022 to 1800 points by the end of 2023, a decline of over 40% [2]. - Historical examples, such as the Dow Jones recovering only after 25 years post-1929 Great Depression and the Nikkei 225 not returning to its 1989 peak, illustrate that systemic market risks can lead to long-term stagnation [2]. Group 4: Limitations of Long-Term Holding - The inherent complexity and uncertainty of markets make long-term holding of single assets risky, as systemic risks from macroeconomic cycles, regulatory changes, and structural shifts can pressure asset prices [3]. - The concept of "long-term" is subjective, varying among investors, and emphasizing long-term holding without considering individual circumstances can be dangerous [3]. Group 5: Asset Allocation as a Solution - The article advocates for asset allocation as a more scientific investment approach, promoting diversification to mitigate risks, akin to the adage of not putting all eggs in one basket [3]. - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" emphasizes diversification across three dimensions: asset types (stocks, bonds, commodities), markets (domestic and international), and time (long-term dollar-cost averaging) to create a balanced investment portfolio [4][5]. Group 6: Investment Philosophy - The Snowball Three-Part Method aims to provide a systematic asset allocation strategy that can withstand various market conditions, focusing on building a robust portfolio rather than chasing short-term gains [5][6]. - Successful investing is framed as a disciplined approach to managing uncertainty and volatility, with an emphasis on scientific allocation rather than mere passive holding [5].

长按即可参与 "只要我不卖，就割不到我"——这句话曾激励无数投资者，但也道出不少人心中的无奈。它背后 折射出一个朴素的投资信念：投资嘛，只要长期拿着，总会回本的。但当经历投资周期的洗礼 后，许多投资者却发现，财富并没有随着时间流逝而增长，长期的持有反而变成了长期的苦难。 为什么我们持有这么久，却拿不到时间的回报？长期投资是市场的谎言吗？今天我们来谈谈，为 什么持有并不等于回本，为什么长期的投资对于绝大多数人变成了痛苦的无奈之举。 乐视网的案例堪称经典。2015年，作为"互联网+"概念的领军企业，乐视网风光无限，市值一度突 破1700亿元。彼时，无数投资者坚信只要持有这样一家"伟大的公司"，财富自然水到渠成。然 而，当公司治理出现问题，当商业模式经不起考验，当财务造假曝光，一切美好愿景都化为泡 影。2020年，乐视网最终退市，众多坚持"长期持有"的投资者血本无归。个股投资风险巨大，经 营失败、行业周期变迁或公司治理问题可能让长期持有者一无所获。 不仅是个股如此，即使是集合了众多股票的主动管理型基金，也并非"永生"。市场竞争激烈，投 资策略失效、管理团队变动等因素都可能导致基金业绩长期低迷，甚至最终走向清盘。不管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public fund market is experiencing a new wave of issuance, with a significant increase in equity products and a positive trend of "volume and quality rising together" as of March 23, 2025 [1] Group 1: Fund Issuance Trends - As of March 23, 2025, the new fund issuance scale has exceeded 220 billion, with equity products showing a notable increase in proportion [1] - From March 24 to 28, 20 new funds are set to be issued, with 14 of them being equity funds, accounting for 70% of the total [3] - The issuance of passive index funds remains dominant, with 10 out of 20 new products being such funds, including multiple free cash flow theme ETFs [3] Group 2: Free Cash Flow Theme ETFs - Free cash flow theme funds have emerged as a highlight, with institutions like E Fund, Yinhua, and Huabao accelerating their layouts [3] - Existing free cash flow ETFs from Guotai and Huaxia have attracted significant capital, with sizes of 2.515 billion and 1.911 billion respectively [3] - A total of 27 institutions are currently involved in this theme, with 28 products awaiting approval, indicating a competitive issuance environment [3] Group 3: Active Management Funds - Active management funds are also gaining traction, with new products launched by Xinyuan Fund and Fortune Fund, reflecting differentiated competition strategies [4] - Nearly 300 active equity funds have reached historical net value highs, boosting investor interest [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics - As of March 21, 2025, the issuance of equity funds has surpassed 40%, with a year-on-year growth of over 100% [5] - The average subscription days for new products have decreased, indicating improved market efficiency, with 26% of new funds ending their fundraising early [5] - The recovery in the new fund issuance market is closely linked to deeper capital market reforms and a shift in investor mindset towards long-term allocation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while many investors aim to make money through fund investments, the reality is that consistently predicting fund price movements is challenging and often leads to failure [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Investors often think they can buy low and sell high to make profits, but this approach is not reliable [2][3]. - A more viable strategy is to focus on long-term capital appreciation through active management funds, which requires careful evaluation of fund managers and their performance [4][6]. - The article suggests that even successful funds like Berkshire Hathaway may underperform indices over certain periods, leading to difficult decisions for investors [5][6]. Group 2: Index Funds and Asset Allocation - Investing in index funds is recommended as a simpler alternative, although it may not guarantee profits either [6][8]. - A diversified approach involving multiple market indices (e.g., A-shares, Hong Kong, US markets) can mitigate risks and enhance returns [9][10]. - The concept of asset allocation is highlighted as a way to balance investments across various asset classes, reducing volatility and providing more stable returns [10][12]. Group 3: Investment Practices - Regular contributions through dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can help investors build wealth over time, acting as a form of forced savings [10][12]. - Rebalancing the investment portfolio periodically is essential to maintain the desired asset allocation and capitalize on market fluctuations [11][12]. - The article concludes by introducing a tool for asset allocation, promoting a structured approach to investment management [12].