" 重回 700 的关键，可能在 AI 。 " 作者丨 胡家铭 编辑丨 董子博 8 月 13 日港股收盘后，腾讯发布截至 2025 年 Q2 财报，报告期内，腾讯实现营收 1845 亿人民币，同 比增长15%，实现经营盈利 692 亿人民币，同比增长 18%。 13 日当天，腾讯港股涨幅为 4.74% ， 14 日开盘一度触及 600 港元/股，截至发稿，报 594 港元/股。 腾讯港股的代码是 00700 ，内部一直有"700重回700"的梗，如果在 200 港元左右的低谷期，大多数人 想必会一笑了之，但如今看来，已经不再遥远。 财报数据显示，游戏业务方面，本土市场实现营收 404 亿，同比增长 17% 。去年上线的 FPS 搜打撤项 目《三角洲行动》，日活已经突破 2000 万，从趋势来看，大有进入新的长青游戏序列。王者荣耀、和平 精英自不必说。 国际市场方面，本季度腾讯实现营收 188 亿，同比增长 35%,则主要得益于《皇室战争》频繁的内容更 新，6月流水创下7年来的新高。同时，《PUBG Mobile》收入实现增长，新上线的《沙丘：觉醒》也贡 献了部分收入。 某券商传媒研究员向雷峰网点评，腾讯财报的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 700.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.5% from the current price of HKD 586.00 [1][41]. Core Insights - The second quarter performance exceeded expectations, with a total revenue growth of 15% year-on-year to RMB 184.5 billion, surpassing market expectations by 4% [5][6]. - The growth was driven by strong performances in gaming, social networking, marketing, and financial technology services, with notable contributions from both domestic and overseas gaming segments [5][6]. - The report projects a continued robust growth trajectory, with an expected revenue growth rate of 11% for the third quarter, slightly above previous market expectations [5][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 609.0 billion in 2023, RMB 660.3 billion in 2024, RMB 734.6 billion in 2025, RMB 790.5 billion in 2026, and RMB 843.3 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][44]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 157.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 296.8 billion in 2027, with significant year-on-year growth rates, particularly in 2024 and 2025 [2][44]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 33.05 in 2027, indicating a strong profitability outlook [2][44]. Segment Performance - Domestic gaming revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, supported by new game launches and the performance of established titles [5][6]. - Overseas gaming revenue saw a remarkable increase of 35%, driven by successful titles like PUBG MOBILE and Supercell games [5][6]. - Social networking revenue increased by 6%, with contributions from mobile game in-app purchases and video streaming services [5][6]. - Marketing services revenue maintained a robust growth rate of 20%, aided by enhanced advertising effectiveness across various platforms [5][6]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Capital expenditures surged by 119% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and technology to enhance existing business operations [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the balance between cost control and profitability enhancement, with expectations for profit growth to continue outpacing revenue growth [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve operating revenue of 178.3 billion RMB in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%, and an adjusted net profit of 60.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase [2] - The company continues to show healthy growth driven by new game releases and advancements in AI technology [8] - The report highlights the strong performance in gaming, advertising, and financial technology sectors, with specific growth rates projected for each segment [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024: 660.3 billion RMB - 2025E: 731.1 billion RMB - 2026E: 795.5 billion RMB - 2027E: 846.5 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9.8% for 2023, 8.4% for 2024, 10.7% for 2025, 8.8% for 2026, and 6.4% for 2027 [4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 157.7 billion RMB - 2024: 222.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 250.7 billion RMB - 2026E: 281.3 billion RMB - 2027E: 309.3 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at 36.4% for 2023, 41.2% for 2024, 12.6% for 2025, 12.2% for 2026, and 10.0% for 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - The expected revenue breakdown for Q2 2025 includes: - Online gaming revenue growth of 14% year-on-year - Advertising revenue growth of 17% year-on-year - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue growth of 5% year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes the contribution of new game titles and AI enhancements to revenue growth [8] Valuation - The target price for Tencent is set at 673 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 35.5% from the current price [8] - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation method estimates the total market value of Tencent at approximately 561.73 billion RMB [10]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's existing businesses are gradually emerging from operational cycle lows, with key games returning to healthy growth and advertising efficiency improving through integration with various platforms [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's 1Q25 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching 180 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.5% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 1Q25 was 61.3 billion, up 22% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 3% [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming strategy has shifted to focus on evergreen games and new game reserves, leading to a positive outlook for growth [2] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" have shown recovery in DAU/MAU metrics, with revenue growth expected to improve in 2025 [2] - AI integration in gaming is expected to enhance content production cycles and interactivity, contributing to revenue growth [2] Group 3: Advertising Business - Advertising revenue grew by 20% in 1Q25, significantly outpacing industry averages, driven by video accounts and mini-programs [3] - AI applications in advertising are enhancing return on investment, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [3] Group 4: Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology services showed low single-digit growth, primarily driven by loans and wealth management, while payment services faced challenges [4] - Cloud services are undergoing restructuring, focusing on profitability and optimizing gross margins, with AI capabilities expected to enhance service offerings [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 financial results, with total revenue of 180 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 61.3 billion yuan, up 22% year-over-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 3% [1] Group 1: Gaming Business - Domestic and international gaming revenues exceeded expectations, with a record revenue growth of 24% year-over-year, totaling 59.5 billion yuan [1] - The domestic gaming market showed high growth, with revenue of 42.9 billion yuan, a 24% increase year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7% [1] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" achieved historical highs in revenue, while new game "Delta Force" showed strong user growth [1] Group 2: International Market - International gaming revenue reached 16.6 billion yuan, growing 23% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 8% [2] - The growth was driven by Supercell's ongoing revenue increase and stable performance from existing products like PUBG Mobile and COD Mobile [2] - The company expects a similar revenue growth rate for the entire year of 2025, with a projected year-over-year increase of 10% [2] Group 3: Social Networking and Marketing Services - Social networking revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, a 7% year-over-year increase, meeting expectations [2] - Marketing services revenue reached 31.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 3% due to increased user engagement and AI-driven advertising solutions [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 54.9 billion yuan, a 5% year-over-year increase, in line with expectations [3] - The growth was driven by improvements in cloud services and e-commerce transaction fees, with AI beginning to positively impact revenue [3] Group 5: Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CAPEX) reached 23 billion yuan, a 60% year-over-year increase, accounting for 13% of revenue [3] - The high CAPEX is aligned with previous guidance and reflects the company's focus on optimizing cash flow through AI infrastructure investments [3] Group 6: AI Developments - The company released an upgraded image generation model, enhancing the speed and quality of generated content for advertising [4] - Ongoing updates in application scenarios are being explored, particularly in integrating AI features into existing platforms like WeChat [4] Group 7: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 728.6 billion, 784.5 billion, and 835.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year growth of 10%, 8%, and 7% respectively [5] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 256 billion, 288.6 billion, and 313.1 billion yuan, with expected year-over-year growth of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with a target price range of 545.69 to 606.33 Hong Kong dollars based on projected earnings [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 2025 revenue reached 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a gross margin improvement from 53% to 56% driven by high-margin businesses such as WeChat Video Accounts and local games [1][3] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 61.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 735.8 billion, 801.6 billion, and 862.9 billion RMB respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately 256.6 billion, 286.8 billion, and 314.9 billion RMB [3][12] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue for the quarter was 92.1 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year, with local game revenue at 42.9 billion RMB, a 24% increase [1][2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 54.9 billion RMB, a 5% increase year-on-year [1] - Advertising revenue reached 31.9 billion RMB, growing 20% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong demand for Video Accounts and Mini Programs [1][2] Business Growth Drivers - The gaming business showed strong growth, with both local and international game revenues exceeding 20% growth, driven by popular titles [2] - Advertising growth was supported by AI-driven technology upgrades, significantly improving ad click-through rates [2] - Tencent's commitment to AI development is evident with a capital expenditure of 27.5 billion RMB and a 21% increase in R&D expenses [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Tencent's total revenue to grow at a CAGR of approximately 10% from 2023 to 2027, with a projected gross margin improvement [12] - Non-GAAP EPS is expected to rise from 16.4 RMB in 2023 to 34.0 RMB by 2027 [4][12] - The report anticipates a decrease in the P/E ratio from 28.6 in 2023 to 13.8 in 2027, indicating potential valuation improvement [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with significant growth in gaming and advertising revenues, and a strong performance in financial technology and enterprise services [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent achieved operating revenue of 180 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 3% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 61.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, also exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [1] - The company has repurchased 21 billion HKD worth of shares as of May 14, 2025, with a commitment to repurchase no less than 80 billion HKD for the year [1] Group 2: Gaming Sector - Q1 2025 saw record highs in both domestic and international gaming revenues, with a 17% year-on-year increase in value-added services revenue [1] - Domestic game revenue reached over 40 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter, with notable performances from long-standing titles such as "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" [1] - New game releases, including "Delta Force" and "Operation Delta," contributed to growth, with "Operation Delta" achieving over 12 million daily active users in April [1] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with video accounts and search services driving this growth [2] - The advertising platform's AI capabilities, including image generation and digital human live streaming, are beginning to show positive effects [2] - Video account advertising revenue has seen over 60% year-on-year growth for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, meeting expectations, with financial technology showing low single-digit growth [2] - The gross margin for financial technology and enterprise services reached a historical high of 50.3%, driven by improvements in payment and cloud business profitability [2] - AI-related revenue in the cloud business is growing rapidly, contributing to the overall performance of the financial technology and enterprise services segment [2] Group 5: Strategic Investments in AI - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was 27.5 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, representing 15% of revenue [3] - Research and development expenses increased by 21% year-on-year to 18.9 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investments in AI [3] - The company continues to enhance AI functionalities within WeChat, aiming for further improvements in user experience and service capabilities [3] Group 6: Future Outlook - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent for 2025-2027 have been raised to 252.8 billion, 283.7 billion, and 311.4 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price based on the SOTP valuation method is set at 694 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" [4][25][28] Core Views - Tencent's revenue growth accelerated, driven by strong performance in advertising and gaming, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 11% in Q4 2024 [1][11] - The company is actively investing in AI applications, with R&D expenses increasing by 16% year-on-year to 31.4 billion yuan in Q4 2024, indicating a commitment to AI development [2][14] - The gaming segment showed robust growth, with online gaming revenue rising by 20% year-on-year, supported by a strong pipeline of evergreen games [3][17] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 3% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in payment services [4][23] - The company plans to increase its annual dividend by 32% to 4.50 HKD per share and intends to repurchase shares worth at least 80 billion HKD [8][25] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, Tencent achieved revenue of 172.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, primarily driven by advertising and gaming [1][11] - Adjusted operating profit for Q4 2024 was 59.5 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, with a Non-IFRS net profit of 55.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% increase [1][11] R&D and Capital Expenditure - R&D expenses in Q4 2024 reached 31.4 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [2][14] - Capital expenditures surged to 36.6 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a remarkable increase of 386% year-on-year, with projections for 2025 to account for 12-15% of revenue [2][14] Gaming and Advertising - Online gaming revenue for Q4 2024 was 49.2 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with deferred revenue at 100.1 billion yuan, up 16% [3][17] - Advertising revenue in Q4 2024 was 35 billion yuan, growing 17% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for video accounts and mini-programs [22][26] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached 56.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a 3% year-on-year increase, with signs of recovery in payment services [4][23] - AI cloud revenue is expected to nearly double in 2024, reflecting the company's strategic focus on AI capabilities [4][23] Shareholder Returns - Tencent plans to increase its annual dividend by 32% to 4.50 HKD per share and aims to repurchase shares worth at least 80 billion HKD [8][25]