Core Viewpoint - Tencent's existing businesses are gradually emerging from operational cycle lows, with key games returning to healthy growth and advertising efficiency improving through integration with various platforms [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's 1Q25 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching 180 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.5% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 1Q25 was 61.3 billion, up 22% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 3% [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming strategy has shifted to focus on evergreen games and new game reserves, leading to a positive outlook for growth [2] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" have shown recovery in DAU/MAU metrics, with revenue growth expected to improve in 2025 [2] - AI integration in gaming is expected to enhance content production cycles and interactivity, contributing to revenue growth [2] Group 3: Advertising Business - Advertising revenue grew by 20% in 1Q25, significantly outpacing industry averages, driven by video accounts and mini-programs [3] - AI applications in advertising are enhancing return on investment, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [3] Group 4: Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology services showed low single-digit growth, primarily driven by loans and wealth management, while payment services faced challenges [4] - Cloud services are undergoing restructuring, focusing on profitability and optimizing gross margins, with AI capabilities expected to enhance service offerings [4]

AI 驱动广告、游戏收入持续超预期增长 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）25Q1 季报点评 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 741,393 | 823,081 | 911,511 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.82% | 8.41% | 12.29% | 11.02% | 10.74% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 152,784 | 200,097 | 239,238 | 272,041 | 308,598 | | 同比增长 (%) | 52.76% | 30.97% | 19.56% | 13.71% | 13.44% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 115,216 | 194,073 | 218,491 | 248,401 | 277,831 | | 同比增长 (%) | -38.79% | 68.44% | 12.58% | 13.69% | 11.85% | | 每股收益（元） | 12.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 financial results, with total revenue of 180 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 61.3 billion yuan, up 22% year-over-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 3% [1] Group 1: Gaming Business - Domestic and international gaming revenues exceeded expectations, with a record revenue growth of 24% year-over-year, totaling 59.5 billion yuan [1] - The domestic gaming market showed high growth, with revenue of 42.9 billion yuan, a 24% increase year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7% [1] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" achieved historical highs in revenue, while new game "Delta Force" showed strong user growth [1] Group 2: International Market - International gaming revenue reached 16.6 billion yuan, growing 23% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 8% [2] - The growth was driven by Supercell's ongoing revenue increase and stable performance from existing products like PUBG Mobile and COD Mobile [2] - The company expects a similar revenue growth rate for the entire year of 2025, with a projected year-over-year increase of 10% [2] Group 3: Social Networking and Marketing Services - Social networking revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, a 7% year-over-year increase, meeting expectations [2] - Marketing services revenue reached 31.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 3% due to increased user engagement and AI-driven advertising solutions [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 54.9 billion yuan, a 5% year-over-year increase, in line with expectations [3] - The growth was driven by improvements in cloud services and e-commerce transaction fees, with AI beginning to positively impact revenue [3] Group 5: Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CAPEX) reached 23 billion yuan, a 60% year-over-year increase, accounting for 13% of revenue [3] - The high CAPEX is aligned with previous guidance and reflects the company's focus on optimizing cash flow through AI infrastructure investments [3] Group 6: AI Developments - The company released an upgraded image generation model, enhancing the speed and quality of generated content for advertising [4] - Ongoing updates in application scenarios are being explored, particularly in integrating AI features into existing platforms like WeChat [4] Group 7: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 728.6 billion, 784.5 billion, and 835.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year growth of 10%, 8%, and 7% respectively [5] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 256 billion, 288.6 billion, and 313.1 billion yuan, with expected year-over-year growth of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with a target price range of 545.69 to 606.33 Hong Kong dollars based on projected earnings [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 2025 revenue reached 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a gross margin improvement from 53% to 56% driven by high-margin businesses such as WeChat Video Accounts and local games [1][3] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 61.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 735.8 billion, 801.6 billion, and 862.9 billion RMB respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately 256.6 billion, 286.8 billion, and 314.9 billion RMB [3][12] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue for the quarter was 92.1 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year, with local game revenue at 42.9 billion RMB, a 24% increase [1][2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 54.9 billion RMB, a 5% increase year-on-year [1] - Advertising revenue reached 31.9 billion RMB, growing 20% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong demand for Video Accounts and Mini Programs [1][2] Business Growth Drivers - The gaming business showed strong growth, with both local and international game revenues exceeding 20% growth, driven by popular titles [2] - Advertising growth was supported by AI-driven technology upgrades, significantly improving ad click-through rates [2] - Tencent's commitment to AI development is evident with a capital expenditure of 27.5 billion RMB and a 21% increase in R&D expenses [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Tencent's total revenue to grow at a CAGR of approximately 10% from 2023 to 2027, with a projected gross margin improvement [12] - Non-GAAP EPS is expected to rise from 16.4 RMB in 2023 to 34.0 RMB by 2027 [4][12] - The report anticipates a decrease in the P/E ratio from 28.6 in 2023 to 13.8 in 2027, indicating potential valuation improvement [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with significant growth in gaming and advertising revenues, and a strong performance in financial technology and enterprise services [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent achieved operating revenue of 180 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 3% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 61.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, also exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [1] - The company has repurchased 21 billion HKD worth of shares as of May 14, 2025, with a commitment to repurchase no less than 80 billion HKD for the year [1] Group 2: Gaming Sector - Q1 2025 saw record highs in both domestic and international gaming revenues, with a 17% year-on-year increase in value-added services revenue [1] - Domestic game revenue reached over 40 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter, with notable performances from long-standing titles such as "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" [1] - New game releases, including "Delta Force" and "Operation Delta," contributed to growth, with "Operation Delta" achieving over 12 million daily active users in April [1] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with video accounts and search services driving this growth [2] - The advertising platform's AI capabilities, including image generation and digital human live streaming, are beginning to show positive effects [2] - Video account advertising revenue has seen over 60% year-on-year growth for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, meeting expectations, with financial technology showing low single-digit growth [2] - The gross margin for financial technology and enterprise services reached a historical high of 50.3%, driven by improvements in payment and cloud business profitability [2] - AI-related revenue in the cloud business is growing rapidly, contributing to the overall performance of the financial technology and enterprise services segment [2] Group 5: Strategic Investments in AI - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was 27.5 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, representing 15% of revenue [3] - Research and development expenses increased by 21% year-on-year to 18.9 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investments in AI [3] - The company continues to enhance AI functionalities within WeChat, aiming for further improvements in user experience and service capabilities [3] Group 6: Future Outlook - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent for 2025-2027 have been raised to 252.8 billion, 283.7 billion, and 311.4 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price based on the SOTP valuation method is set at 694 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 180.02 billion RMB for the first quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, surpassing the forecast of 175.6 billion RMB [1][2] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was 47.82 billion RMB, a 14% increase year-on-year, but below the expected 51.69 billion RMB [1][2] - The gross profit reached 100.49 billion RMB, up 20% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement from 53% to 56% [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue was 92.13 billion RMB, growing 17% year-on-year, accounting for 51% of total revenue [5] - Marketing services revenue increased to 31.85 billion RMB, a 20% growth, driven by strong demand for advertising on platforms like WeChat [3][5] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 54.91 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [3][5] Profitability Metrics - Operating profit was reported at 57.57 billion RMB, a 10% increase year-on-year [2] - Non-IFRS operating profit reached 69.32 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) based on non-IFRS measures was 6.735 RMB, a 25% increase compared to the previous year [2] Investment and R&D - The company invested 18.91 billion RMB in R&D, marking a 21% increase year-on-year [5] - Capital expenditures amounted to 27.48 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year growth of 91% [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued solid growth in high-quality revenue, with AI capabilities contributing positively to advertising and gaming sectors [6] - Increased investments in AI applications and opportunities within WeChat are expected to support financial stability despite additional costs [6]

Core Insights - Tencent achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and gross profit in Q1, with revenue reaching 1800.2 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, and gross profit at 1004.9 billion yuan, up 20% [1] - The focus on AI has surpassed previous interests in "WeChat e-commerce," indicating a significant shift in strategic priorities [1] - The gaming business in the domestic market grew by 24% year-on-year, driven by popular titles such as "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG MOBILE" [1][2] Revenue Growth - Marketing services revenue increased by 20% to 319 billion yuan, marking ten consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, primarily due to strong demand from advertisers for video accounts and mini-programs [2] - The company’s investment in AI has already shown substantial contributions to advertising effectiveness and long-standing games [4] AI Investment and Impact - AI has improved click-through rates (CTR) for ads, with some ad placements seeing CTRs rise to the 3.0% range, compared to historical averages of 0.1% for banner ads and 1.0% for feed ads [4] - Significant capital expenditures increased by 91% in the latest quarter, primarily for GPU purchases, reflecting the company's commitment to AI development [6] WeChat E-commerce Developments - Tencent is rapidly deploying new features for WeChat e-commerce, including new entry points for WeChat stores and enhanced functionalities for social commerce [7] - The establishment of a dedicated e-commerce product department within the WeChat business group signals a strategic push to enhance transaction capabilities and ecosystem development [7] Future Projections - The advertising revenue from Tencent's video accounts is estimated to exceed 8 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of over 50%, indicating untapped potential in this area [8] - The company plans to leverage its e-commerce capabilities to stimulate growth in its advertising and enterprise services, especially as the macroeconomic environment improves [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Tencent's Q1 2025 performance shows strong growth in gaming and advertising, with total revenue reaching 180 billion CNY (up 13% year-on-year, up 4% quarter-on-quarter) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 47.8 billion CNY (up 14% year-on-year, down 7% quarter-on-quarter) [4][5] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D and AI, with R&D expenses around 18.9 billion CNY (up 20.6% year-on-year) and capital expenditures approximately 27.5 billion CNY (up 91.35% year-on-year) [5] - The gaming segment remains robust, with domestic game revenue at 42.9 billion CNY (up 24% year-on-year) and overseas game revenue at 16.6 billion CNY (up 13% year-on-year) [4][5] - Marketing services revenue reached 31.9 billion CNY (up 20% year-on-year), driven by strong demand from advertisers for video accounts and mini-programs [4] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 216.9 billion CNY, 236.3 billion CNY, and 255.5 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 23.6 CNY, 25.7 CNY, and 27.8 CNY [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the expected revenue is 707.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 216.9 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year increase [7] - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.4, 18.7, and 17.3 respectively [7]

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高超 杨云祺 SAC：S0490516080001 SAC：S0490524090002 SFC：BUX177 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 港股研究丨公司点评丨腾讯控股（0700.HK） [Table_Title] 腾讯 25Q1 业绩点评：游戏及广告业务超预期强 劲，AI 持续带来实质回报 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 腾讯 25Q1 实现收入 1800 亿元，同比+13%，环比+4%；实现经营盈利 576 亿元，同比+10%； Non-IFRS 归母净利润 613 亿元，同比+22%。收入端：1）长青游戏表现优异叠加新游增量， 带动国内及海外游戏 Q1 收入均创历史新高；2）AI 持续赋能叠加微信交易生态优化，广告增 长超预期强劲；3）AI 相关收入快速增长带动云服务收入同比增长。腾讯利润增速持续 11 季度 超越收入增速，毛利率创近年记录，盈利能力保持强劲。 Q1 资本开支同比+91.35%至 274.76 亿元，环比-24.88%，占收入比重约 15%（24 年为 12%）。 %% %% research.955 ...

今年一季度，腾讯实现总收入1800亿元，同比增长13%。其中，营销服务业务收入同比增长20%至319 亿元。去年腾讯营销服务收入全年增长20%。 营销服务业务板块是腾讯业绩亮点，一方面得益于腾讯流量增加，服务方式更多元，另一方面是腾讯通 过技术手段提升广告效果，单位流量攫取能力提高。 去年四季度，视频号广告收入同比增长超60%，成为腾讯广告增长的核心引擎之一。视频号商业化能力 越来越成熟，聚集的内容创作者越来越多，通过短视频和直播的方式实现商业价值，自然提升了广告收 入。 除了视频号，腾讯去年营销服务收入增长还有小程序及微信搜一搜等的贡献，主要是用户参与度提升。 在小程序方面，小游戏和短剧一直是广告主关注的重要模块。2025年微信公开课PRO数据显示，2024年 小游戏大盘月活5亿。小游戏则通过激励广告、插屏广告等形式，进一步提升了变现效率。 同样的流量，提升更多价值，是很多内容提供方想做的事情。有公众号创作者最近发现，同样的阅读 量，文章内随机推荐的广告收益有不小提升，他认为是腾讯广告转化效果有了本质提高。 公众一直认为，腾讯因为有QQ和微信，可以对用户偏好和社交圈进行精准掌握，在广告投放时更有目 的，但据 ...