交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 今日焦点 | 挚文集团 | | MOMO US | | --- | --- | --- | | 经营利润超预期，海外新产品维持强劲増势 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 7.88 | 目标价: 美元 9.40↑ | 潜在涨幅: +19.3% | | 赵丽, CFA | zhao.li@bocomgroup.com | | 我们将估值基准切换至 2026 年，考虑行业估值中枢上移，基于 8 倍 2026 年市盈率，上调目标价至 9.4 美元，维持买入。 业绩回顾：2025 年 2 季度收入 26.2 亿元，同比降 3%。经调整运营利润 4.5 亿元，高于我们预期的 3.9 亿元，主要受益于好于预期的成本控制及 探探营销渠道优化。海外收入持续扩张，同比增 73%，收入占比提升至 17%。 展望：我们预计 2025 年 3 季度收入同比降 2%。主播税收合规强化影响 下，公司或将提高分成激励，预计对陌陌收入影响可控，但毛利率将有 所下降。预计 3 季度海外收入同比增 62%，Amar、Yaahlan 有望维持强 劲增长。考虑派息预提税率调整影响及潜 ...

Global Macro - Strong non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, with June non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, exceeding market expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% [1][2] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2%. This strong employment data reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors launched the G7 model at a starting price of 195,800 yuan, which is 40,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price, exceeding expectations [3] - The G7 focuses on family comfort and smart technology, showcasing competitive advantages in the mid-to-high-end pure electric SUV market compared to competitors like Model Y and Xiaomi YU7 [3][6] - XPeng's sales in the first half of 2025 exceeded 197,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 279%, achieving 56% of its annual target. The G7's launch is expected to sustain sales growth in the second half of the year [6] Internet Industry - Tencent's mobile game revenue is expected to grow by 17% in Q2, while NetEase's mobile game revenue shows positive year-on-year growth, with domestic revenue increasing by 4% [9][10] - The performance of Tencent's games was impacted by a high base from previous releases, while new games like "Delta Action" and established titles contributed to mitigating losses [10] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include U.S. consumer credit and unemployment claims, as well as China's consumer price index and trade surplus figures [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue increasing by 13% year-on-year to 180 billion RMB, surpassing market expectations [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Gaming revenue grew by 24% year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year and the success of several long-standing games, as well as new titles like "MDnF" and "Delta Operation" [1]. - Social revenue increased by 7%, supported by growth in music subscriptions, mini-game service fees, and mobile game in-app purchases [1]. - Marketing revenue accelerated by 20%, primarily due to strong demand for advertising on platforms like Video Accounts (up 60%+) and improved performance in search queries and mini-programs [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - Gross profit rose by 20% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth, with gross margin improving by approximately 3 percentage points [1]. - Adjusted net profit reached 61.3 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year, benefiting from high-margin businesses and cost optimization in payment and cloud services [1]. Capital Expenditure and Investments - Capital expenditures amounted to 27.5 billion RMB, a 91% increase year-on-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud service infrastructure [2]. - Some of these investments have already started to contribute to revenue, enhancing user engagement and activity in long-standing games [2]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company expects Q2 total revenue to grow by 10% to 177.8 billion RMB, with a full-year revenue forecast of 723.5 billion RMB, representing a 9.6% increase [3]. - New game releases are anticipated to alleviate concerns regarding high revenue bases in the latter half of the year [3]. - The current price corresponds to a 17x P/E ratio for 2025, with a target price adjustment to 604 HKD based on stable performance and shareholder returns [3].

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The "May Day" holiday data indicates resilience in the consumption market, with domestic travel reaching 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and total spending of 180.27 billion RMB, up 8.0% year-on-year [3][4] - The current consumption market shows a clear trend of downscaling and stratification, with county-level tourism gaining popularity and economic hotel bookings outpacing high-end hotels, reflecting a consumer preference for cost-effectiveness [4] - Consumer confidence is improving but remains cautious, with spending preferences leaning towards small emotional purchases and premium products, indicating a positive outlook for emerging consumption trends in the current economic environment [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes, with a more hawkish tone emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [5][6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed from June to July, maintaining an overall forecast of three cuts for the year [6][8] - The Fed's cautious approach is deemed reasonable, considering potential impacts from tariffs and the lack of clarity regarding future tariff agreements [6] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - AMD - AMD reported Q1 2025 revenue of $7.44 billion, exceeding expectations, with client business performance stable due to increased average selling prices compensating for a decline in shipment volumes [9] - The company anticipates a significant boost in data center revenue in the second half of 2025, driven by the launch of new products MI350 and MI400, with projected growth rates of 25% and 34% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] - AMD's valuation is considered attractive, with an updated target price of $142, reflecting a 31x average P/E ratio for 2025/26 [10] Group 4: Automotive Industry - Geely - Geely plans to privatize its subsidiary Zeekr at a price of $2.57 per share, representing a 13.6% premium over the last trading price, aiming to consolidate resources and enhance operational efficiency [11][12] - The privatization is expected to benefit Geely by establishing a unified platform for asset integration, potentially reducing costs and improving sales performance post-integration [12] Group 5: Internet Industry Insights - The domestic mobile game market showed a modest growth of 4% year-on-year in April 2025, with Tencent and NetEase reporting mixed results in their gaming revenues [13] - The U.S. court ruling allowing developers to link to third-party payment platforms may enhance long-term profitability for game developers, indicating a potential shift in the competitive landscape [13]

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 5 月 8 日 互联网行业 本土手游中个位数增长，关注新游上线及 iOS 外链开放机会 腾讯：本土流水同比净增 8 亿元/8%，《MDnF》仍贡献主要增量，2025 年 新游中，《三角洲行动》表现领先，截至 5 月 6 日，位列 iOS 游戏畅销榜 第 6 名，4 月流水超 3.5 亿元（人民币，下同）。海外流水同比减 5.3 亿元 /19%，主要因《荒野乱斗》高基数影响，但部分被《PUBG》及新游《帝 国时代》/《三角洲行动》增量贡献所抵消。《荒野乱斗》4 月流水同比降 60%，但考虑较长的摊销周期，叠加新游增量贡献，预计仍将拉动 2 季度 海外手游收入维持双位数增长。 网易：本土流水同比减 5%/2 亿元，主要因《逆水寒》高基数影响，但部 分被《燕云十六声》等新游及《第五人格》增量贡献所抵消。《燕云十六 声》4 月流水环比持平，维持在近 2 亿元。海外流水同比增 7,000 万元 /23%，主要受益于《巅峰极速》韩服及东南亚服、《逆水寒》繁体服流 水增量贡献。 估值概要 | s | | --- | 资料来源： Bloomberg ，交银国际预测 ( 覆 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 583, indicating a potential upside of 8.0% from the current price of HKD 540 [1][4][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are expected to rapidly integrate into Tencent's ecosystem, contributing to revenue growth. The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected to reach RMB 713.8 billion, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth [2][8]. - The report emphasizes strong performance in various segments, including a 20% increase in gaming revenue and a 60%+ growth in video advertising revenue, driven by AI enhancements [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: RMB 609,015 million - 2024: RMB 660,257 million - 2025E: RMB 713,818 million - 2026E: RMB 767,880 million - 2027E: RMB 818,920 million - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline gradually from 9.8% in 2023 to 6.6% in 2027 [3][52]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 157,688 million - 2024: RMB 222,703 million - 2025E: RMB 244,774 million - 2026E: RMB 268,648 million - 2027E: RMB 289,453 million - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 31.91 in 2027 [3][52]. Segment Performance - The report details segment performance for Q4 2024: - Total revenue reached RMB 172,446 million, up 11% year-on-year - Online gaming revenue increased by 23% year-on-year, with local games contributing significantly - Marketing services revenue grew by 17%, driven by video and search advertising [8][9]. - The report notes that the gross margin improved to 53% due to the growth of high-margin businesses [7][8]. Valuation - The report estimates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times for 2025, with a projected share buyback of HKD 80 billion and dividends of HKD 41 billion, enhancing shareholder returns [7][8].

个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 540.00 | 港元 | 583.00↑ | +8.0% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | | AI+应用或在腾讯生态最快落地，上调目标价 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 157,688 | 222,703 | 244,774 | 268,648 | 289,453 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 16.33 | 23. ...