该行认为目前博彩板块估值偏低，认为在盈利能见度改善及赌客增加下，未来几季行业将有显著重新估 值的空间。股份方面，短期内该行看好金沙中国(01928)，主要因预期公司将提高派息，且第四季市场 份额及利润均将有所提升。长期而言(12个月以上)，该行首选银河娱乐(00027)，相信其兼具稳健价值及 长远增长潜力。另一方面，该行继续建议避开新濠国际(00200)及澳博控股(00880)。 摩根大通发布研报称，澳门12月首21天的博彩总收入为146.5亿澳门元(下同)，即日均约6.97亿元，在赢 率正常化及运气因素推动下，过去一周的日均博彩收入达7亿元，高于前一周的6.5亿元。在较低基数 下，12月至今的日均博彩收入较去年12月的5.87亿元增长接近20%。该行认为，其原先预测今年12月及 第四季博彩总收入分别同比升15%及13%，均有进一步上行空间，因目前的数据显示第四季博彩收入可 能同比增长15%至16%，或按季增长6%至7%，料亦可支持市场持续上调预期。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [42]. Core Insights - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure policy is expected to significantly boost the tourism and hotel sectors, leading to a surge in market expectations for Hainan tourism. There has been a substantial year-on-year increase in flight and hotel bookings for the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, particularly in Sanya, where the demand for cross-year travel is notably high. The hotel and tourism sectors have shown strong performance, leading the consumer services industry, reflecting positive market expectations for the long-term benefits of the closure policy [4][34]. - The report identifies several key investment opportunities, including hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resource services with clear industry trends, the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, and internet platforms integrating online and offline operations [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 2.66%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a decline of 0.15%. The CSI 300 index also fell by 0.28%, while the consumer services index rose by 3.76% [7][24]. - The report highlights that the hotel sector saw a weekly increase of 2.70%, while the tourism and scenic areas sector increased by 3.42% [18]. Notable Announcements - Key announcements include a report from Beijing Human Resources showing a shareholding reduction by a major shareholder and a significant increase in revenue and net profit for China Education Holdings [30][32].

Group 1 - MGM China has announced the appointment of Mr. Feng Xiaofeng as the new Chief Executive Officer, effective from December 19, 2025 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US is making a series of wrong policies and is starting to contract globally, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Financial - Global Economy - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair must believe in "significant rate cuts" and mortgage loan rates will further decline, and he previously asked to cut rates to 1% [1]. - The Bank of Japan is focusing on its subsequent policy path, needing to balance multiple goals [1]. - Trump's account plan is to provide $1000 for newborns to invest in US stocks, which could grow to about $5800 at 18 and about $600,000 at retirement, and over $300,000 at 18 with additional family investment [1]. - PJM's latest electricity supply auction will cost consumers $16.4 billion, with the daily cost per megawatt rising from $329.17 to $333.44 [1]. - The global platinum market will face a third - consecutive - year supply shortage in 2025, with a gap of 850,000 ounces and limited supply growth in the future [1]. - Hedge fund Point72 is considering entering the commodity trading business due to asset price fluctuations [1]. - Early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest pace in recent years, and the absorbing demand from ETFs and institutions has faded [1]. - India has become the most active AI consumer market globally, but local startups face greater competition [1]. - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion of short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2]. - Some traders are betting on a Q1 rate - cut in the changing bond - option market [2]. - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending gap in the US [2]. - Japan's 10 - year Treasury yield reached its highest since July 2007 [2]. - AI - driven investment will expand the credit market, with investment - grade bond issuance expected to reach $2.25 trillion [2]. - Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2]. - NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2]. - AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, raising concerns about economic slowdown [2].

12月18日，港股市场低开，恒生指数跌0.54%，恒生科技指数跌1.11%。 中信证券指出，离岛免税政策的优化与海南封关在即创造了潜在消费增量空间。重点建议关注财富效应 传导、供给端优化推动的经营拐点机会，包括受益于资本市场财富效应潜在传导的偏高端消费，如出境 游、酒店、博彩、免税、奢侈品&高端美护、高端地产物业等。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 消息面上，据央视新闻，自2025年12月18日起，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关。至此，进口征税商 品目录、货物流通税收政策、禁限清单、加工增值内销免关税政策、海关监管办法等一系列封关政策及 配套文件同步实施。封关是海南自贸港建设新阶段的开始，封关后还将不断扩大开放领域，持续完善政 策制度体系，努力打造引领我国新时代对外开放的重要门户。 甬兴证券表示，随着扩内需促消费系列政策逐步见效，线下销售有望稳步恢复。传统商超掀起新一轮改 革升级，回归商品和服务，传统商超在变革中摸索，调改初见成效，关注业绩边 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：六里投资报 12月16日，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东团队发布最新报告《登高稳行：成长乘势聚力，价值重 构红利》， 全面地展望了市场2026年走向，资金面情况，后续策略等，并详细指出了重点看好的机会。 张忆东提出，美联储降息幅度可能超当前市场预期， 甚至可能重启资产购买，或收益率曲线控制等非常规操作。 而美元2026年将延续疲弱趋势，这有利于全球流动性延续宽松格局。 中国经济方面，张忆东指出， 人民币对美元汇率可能重回"6字头"，并且2026年中国名义GDP有望改善， 将成为吸引更多配置型外资回流中国资产的重要驱动力。 尤其是在科技和非必需消费品板块，这些领域历来是外资偏好的投资方向， 2026年上半年，有望出现空头回补带动的行情； 中国庞大的中长线资金，也有望进一步提升权益投资规模。 资金面内外齐发力，叠加2026年盈利和估值双提升的潜力依然较大， 张忆东判断"2026年港股牛市将继续"，且盈利、流动性有望协同驱动行情。 投资主线上，张忆东强调"AI科技浪潮不会轻易结束"， 并聚焦互联网、端侧AI、传媒等新逻辑新动能； 中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the current Chinese consumer market exhibits a significant "K-shaped recovery" characteristic, with a clear divergence between the rebound in the consumption sector and the moderate recovery of mass consumption [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence in the market is primarily driven by supply-side rigid constraints, the wealth effect from high-net-worth individuals, and marginal improvements in policy [1] - The aviation industry faces limitations in effective capacity growth due to delays in aircraft introduction and engine maintenance [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-end retail properties and luxury hotels are achieving leading recovery in foot traffic and revenue due to their scarce locations and brand barriers, despite pressure on demand [1] - The performance of the capital market and the rise in gold prices are providing demand support for cyclical sectors such as luxury goods, high-end tourism, and gaming [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - Industry self-regulatory agreements have effectively solidified the bottom line for airline ticket prices and yields [1] - The optimization of the offshore duty-free policy and the imminent closure of Hainan create potential incremental space for growth [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on operational turning point opportunities driven by the transmission of wealth effects and supply-side optimization, particularly in high-end consumption sectors such as outbound tourism, hotels, gaming, duty-free, luxury goods, high-end beauty care, and premium real estate properties [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that certain high-end consumer sectors in China, including luxury goods, high-end beauty, air travel, and high-end residential markets in core cities, have generally outperformed previous market expectations, reflecting a significant "K-shaped recovery" in the consumer market [1] High-End Consumer Sectors - The luxury goods and high-end beauty market in China showed signs of stabilization in Q3 2025, entering a gradual recovery phase, with top brands like Hermès maintaining steady sales due to high customer loyalty [6] - The Macau gaming sector demonstrated a notable recovery, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) in November increasing by 14.4% year-on-year to 21.09 billion MOP, recovering to 92% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019 [4] - The high-end retail properties and luxury hotels have achieved a leading recovery in foot traffic and revenue due to their scarcity and brand barriers, despite overall demand pressures [1][4] Policy and Market Dynamics - Policy improvements, such as the optimization of the offshore duty-free policy and the upcoming closure of Hainan, are expected to create potential incremental space for growth in the luxury sector [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization in driving operational turning points, particularly in high-end consumption areas like outbound tourism, hotels, gaming, and luxury goods [1][15] Real Estate Market - The high-end real estate market is characterized by a "K-shaped recovery" driven by quality supply, with capital and purchasing power increasingly concentrating on top projects with absolute advantages in location, product, brand, and operation [9] - The overall recovery in the real estate market remains slow, with a complex macro environment and high unemployment rates impacting consumer confidence [7] Hotel Industry - The mid-to-high-end hotel sector saw an average RevPAR increase of approximately 4% year-on-year in October-November 2025, benefiting from strong leisure tourism and a slight recovery in business demand [11] - The supply growth in the hotel industry is expected to slow down from 7%-8% in 2025 to 5%-6% in 2026 due to extended investment return cycles [11] Duty-Free Market - The offshore duty-free sales in Hainan showed signs of recovery, with sales turning positive in September and expanding in October-November, supported by wealth effect transmission and policy optimization [12] - The upcoming full closure of Hainan in December 2025 is anticipated to further enhance the overall development of the tourism retail market [12] Aviation Sector - The aviation industry faces supply constraints due to delays in aircraft introductions and engine repairs, which limit effective capacity growth [14] - Demand recovery and structural optimization are expected to accelerate, with airlines optimizing route structures to enhance profitability [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, leading to a differentiation and value transformation in the AI sector [1][3] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull run, driven by earnings and liquidity, with significant potential for both earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in large-cap growth and dividend assets [1][11] - Investment strategies focus on generating excess returns from "growth momentum + value reconstruction dividends," with optimism for AI investments, military technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][15] Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to experience liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar improving global liquidity [2][3] - The AI technology wave is viewed as a "rigid bubble" in the context of great power competition, with concerns about bubbles potentially leading to differentiation and value transformation in the AI market [2][3] - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the internet boom of the late 1990s, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies will differ significantly from those in the early 2000s [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted as a policy driver for China's economic structure in 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and structural opportunities in the stock market [4][6] - Key areas of focus include high-level technological self-reliance, stimulating domestic demand, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [5][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a weak recovery with improving inflation, which may enhance investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The expectation of a stronger renminbi in 2026 is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar and the recovery of nominal economic indicators in China [7][8] - There is an anticipated trend of foreign capital returning to the Chinese stock market, driven by the renminbi appreciation and improved asset attractiveness [8][9] - The report notes that the significant wealth in Chinese households presents further potential for equity market allocation [8][10] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain its bull market in 2026, benefiting from expectations of recovery in mainland China and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [11][12] - The report indicates that the market structure in 2025 suggests significant potential for earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and healthcare [11][12] - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and caution, with a focus on sectors that can attract both domestic and foreign capital [15][16]

据凤凰卫视报道，泰国和柬埔寨距离上一轮冲突结束签下和平协议还不满两个月，又爆发了更激烈的新 一轮的冲突。双方从天空打到地面，两国接壤的所有省份都处在战火之中，东南亚大坝生命线也受威 胁，特朗普和东盟的紧急调停也毫无成果。东南亚为何成了残酷战场？折射出背后经济和安全怎样的困 境？ Part. 1 12月12日，还在继续追逐诺贝尔和平奖的美国总统特朗普，在社交媒体上写道：双方已经同意"自当晚 起全面停火"；并将恢复执行此前在达成的《吉隆坡和平协议》。特朗普称两国都"准备好与美国一起实 现和平并继续贸易"。 特朗普口中的两国，就是正在爆发激烈冲突的泰国与柬埔寨。在先后与泰国看守总理阿努廷、柬埔寨首 相洪玛奈通话之后，特朗普在社交媒体上写下了那些话语。 当全世界都在惊讶于特朗普手中的和平魔术棒时，12月13日，泰国外交部长西哈萨·蓬集在记者会上否 认了同意停火的说法。西哈萨·蓬集最后还称，关注外部声明只会分散泰国的注意力，如果把时间花在 听这个人或那个人的话上，泰国将没有时间捍卫我们的主权和人民。 追溯冲突根源，领土争议与协议失效构成了直接导火索。 今年10月26日，泰柬两国在东盟峰会期间签署和平联合声明，本为边境问 ...