Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have issued guidelines to support the expansion of consumption, focusing on innovative financing models in various service sectors [1] Group 1: Financial Support for Service Consumption - Emphasis on combining consumption promotion with improving people's livelihoods, increasing credit support for key areas of service consumption [1] - Targeted credit investments in wholesale retail, catering, accommodation, domestic services, and elderly care, particularly for small and micro enterprises [1] - Development of personalized and differentiated financial products and services tailored to specific service consumption scenarios [1] Group 2: Innovative Financing Models - Encouragement to innovate financing models in cultural tourism, sports, entertainment, education training, and residential services [1] - Proposals to extend loan terms in line with industry development cycles while ensuring compliance and risk control [1] - Promotion of accounts receivable and intellectual property pledge financing to stimulate the vitality of improved service consumption [1]

Economic Overview - In May, external demand showed signs of recovery while internal demand remained mixed, supported by policy measures and holiday effects [3][5] - The industrial added value in May grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 6.1% in April, but still above 5% [5][7] - Service sector production index increased by 6.2% year-on-year, driven by information technology and retail sectors [9] Production Insights - The production recovery was evident, with industrial added value showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61%, higher than the previous month [5][7] - Export-oriented industries and those benefiting from favorable policies exhibited divergent performance, with transportation equipment and electrical machinery facing significant declines [7] - The automotive sector saw a notable rebound, with production growth increasing by 2.4 percentage points, attributed to policy incentives and market demand [7] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, with significant contributions from the "old-for-new" policy and pre-holiday promotions [13][14] - Online retail sales surged by 11.5%, reflecting the impact of early promotions and policy support [14] - Categories benefiting from the "old-for-new" initiative, such as home appliances and communication equipment, experienced substantial growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively [14] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking a decline from 3.6% in April [17][18] - Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showed weakening trends, with real estate investment declining by 12.0% [17][21] - Infrastructure investment requires acceleration in physical work volume formation, with current construction PMI readings indicating slower growth [18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed mixed signals, with sales area and sales revenue declining by 3.3% and 6.0% year-on-year respectively [21] - New housing starts and completion areas also saw significant declines, although the rate of decline has narrowed [21] - The demand side of the real estate market is showing signs of weakening, necessitating ongoing policy support [21]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the "Invest in China - Choose Economic Development Zones" brand to attract foreign investment in sectors such as biomedicine and high-end manufacturing [1][2] - The "Work Plan" outlines 16 policy measures aimed at transforming development methods, optimizing economic structures, and expanding high-level opening-up [1][2] - Economic development zones are identified as a priority for foreign trade and investment, serving as a platform for institutional opening [1][2] Group 2 - The "Work Plan" supports the establishment of industrial technology innovation platforms and promotes collaboration between industry and academia [2] - It emphasizes the need for upgrading manufacturing quality and integrating digital and physical industries [2][3] - Measures include optimizing park operation models and enhancing the business environment to improve efficiency for enterprises [2][3] Group 3 - The "Work Plan" includes practical measures to ensure resource supply, such as allowing local governments to allocate land and use special bonds for industrial projects [3] - It encourages innovative development models and the integration of various industrial functions [3] - The Ministry of Commerce will focus on implementing the "Work Plan" and enhancing the investment environment in economic development zones [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is optimizing the salary distribution for skilled positions in state-owned enterprises [4][5] - The new policy aims to create a positive interaction between skill enhancement and salary increases [4][5] - It includes establishing a reward system for innovation and improving the wage growth mechanism for skilled workers [6] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the digital transformation of the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting a CNC rate of over 85% by 2027 [7][8] - The plan aims to establish a robust digital infrastructure and enhance the integration of advanced computing and artificial intelligence in the industry [7][8] Group 6 - Shaanxi Province is implementing four actions to support key industrial chain enterprises, focusing on talent development, employment security, and training integration [9][10] - The province aims to establish high-skill training bases and support enterprises in talent evaluation and promotion [9][10] - Measures include financial support for small and micro enterprises and promoting a dual education system [10][11] Group 7 - Hainan Province is launching ten measures to improve the modern commercial circulation system, focusing on high-quality development in wholesale and retail [12][13] - The plan includes enhancing rural commercial infrastructure and promoting digital transformation in the retail sector [12][13] - Hainan aims to leverage its free trade port policies to attract leading wholesale enterprises and develop new specialized markets [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new trends in employment and wage data for urban employees in 2024, highlighting shifts from high salary pursuits to a focus on reducing work intensity and improving work-life balance [1]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Employment is shifting from a focus on high salaries to a trend of "anti-involution," where workers prefer industries with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages. This change has been observed since 2021, contrasting with the pre-2019 trend of concentrating on high-paying sectors [2][9]. - The average annual wage growth for urban non-private sector employees has slowed to 2.8% in 2024, down from a peak in 2021, with significant declines in sectors like information technology and finance [2][9]. - Industries such as transportation and light manufacturing have shown resilience in wage growth due to direct revenue increases, with transportation revenue growth exceeding 8% in 2024 [2][21]. Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence and Employment Shifts - There is a convergence in wage growth between eastern and western regions of China, with the wage growth gap narrowing from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2024 [4][53]. - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating to the central and western regions, while production-related jobs continue to flow into the eastern regions. This trend is supported by stronger wage growth in the service sector in these areas [4][75]. - The service consumption pattern is shifting from local to cross-province, further concentrating service sector employment in the central and western regions, driven by faster consumption growth in these areas [5][80]. Group 3: Wage Growth in Private and Flexible Employment - Wages in the private sector have generally lagged behind those in the non-private sector, but certain industries within the private sector, such as education and retail, have experienced higher wage growth [6][96]. - New forms of flexible employment, such as ride-hailing and delivery services, have seen significant wage increases, with average monthly salaries for these roles reaching 10,506 yuan, surpassing traditional employment salaries [7][114]. - The work intensity for new flexible employment roles is higher, with average weekly working hours for platform workers reaching 54.3 hours, indicating a trade-off between higher pay and increased workload [7][122].

Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2024, the average annual salary for urban non-private sector employees is 124,000 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.8 percentage points since 2021, now at a growth rate of 2.8%[3] - Employment is shifting from high-salary industries to sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, indicating a trend towards "anti-involution" since 2021[4] - The transportation and service industries have seen a reduction in weekly working hours by 4.2 and 3.6 hours respectively, while hourly wages increased by 3.9 and 3.6 yuan/hour, suggesting improved job attractiveness[4] Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence - From 2019 to 2023, the wage growth in the eastern region was 7.5%, compared to 7.1% in the central and western regions, with the gap narrowing from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2023[5] - The wage growth in the central and western regions has shown resilience, with the central region's wage growth remaining stable at around 7.1%[5] - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating to the central and western regions, with the proportion of employees in accommodation and retail sectors decreasing from 20.8 and 10.1 percentage points below the eastern region to 18.2 and 9 percentage points respectively[6] Group 3: Private and Flexible Employment - The average salary growth for private sector employees is lower than that of non-private sector employees, but certain sectors like education and retail services have seen higher growth rates of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively[7] - The concentration of small and medium enterprises in the service sector has led to better salary growth in private units compared to non-private units[10] - New flexible employment roles, such as ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, have higher average monthly salaries of 10,506 yuan, significantly above traditional employees' 8,910 yuan, despite longer working hours[10]

四川绵阳近日抛出一份提振消费方案，其中"2.5天休假模式"的提法颇引人注目，还上了热搜。 这一设想说新不新，说旧不旧。十年前国务院就曾为这类探索开过口子，如今十余省份文件里都嵌着类 似表述。 政策初衷不难理解：多放半天假，人们多消费，市场添活力。可细究起来，这道政策裂缝里透出的光， 终究没能照进现实土壤。 作为灵活就业者，"2.5天休假模式"于我而言确如隔岸观花。想休便休，休足七日亦无不可，但用粤语 来说，这叫"手停口停"，手头一停，嘴巴就得挨饿。 可看着这看似美好的政策，仍忍不住要唠叨两句：任何标榜进步的工作制改革，若沦为少数人的专享， 终究不过是绣花枕头。 改革成败不在概念新奇，而要看绝大多数劳动者能否真正触到政策温度。 一个不容忽视的事实是：即便在美国这样的发达国家，对4.5天工作制也选择敬而远之。从全球实践版 图看，4.5天工作制始终未能突破"局部试点"的桎梏。 英国部分企业尝试四天工作制，但尚未上升为国家法定制度；冰岛虽在试点中观察到员工幸福感提升， 却并没有急于大规模推广。 西班牙政府的试点计划运行了多年，还是停留在"计划"层面；新西兰企业的尝试局限于特定行业；再看 看日本部分试行的企业多以"周五 ...

Industrial Performance - Jiangsu's industrial economy showed strong performance from January to April, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in industrial added value for large-scale industries [1] - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 8%, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing (10.9%), high-tech manufacturing (12.9%), and core digital product manufacturing (11.4%) [1] - Key industries such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing saw growth rates of 14.7%, 11.5%, and 11.6% respectively [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Jiangsu decreased by 0.2% from January to April, but infrastructure investment increased by 10.9% and manufacturing investment rose by 4.7% [1] - Investment in the purchase of large-scale equipment and tools increased by 11.1% year-on-year during the same period [1] Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Jiangsu reached 15,991.9 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.5% from January to April [2] - The "old-for-new" policy boosted retail sales in April, with household appliances and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 13.2% and automotive sales by 9.1%; new energy vehicle sales surged by 59.7% [2] - Year-on-year sales growth in wholesale and retail sectors was 8.5% and 11.3% respectively, while accommodation and catering sectors saw increases of 6.6% and 9.3% [2] Price Trends - In the industrial producer price sector, both the producer's ex-factory prices and purchase prices decreased by 2.5% and 2.3% respectively from January to April [2] - In April, the ex-factory prices and purchase prices fell by 2.8% and 2.7% year-on-year [2]

Group 1 - Guangzhou has actively implemented national policies to boost consumption, creating the "New Eight Scenic Spots of Consumption" brand, integrating commerce, tourism, culture, and sports [1] - From January to April, Guangzhou's retail sales increased by 4% year-on-year, leading among first-tier cities, with a 35.2% increase in foreign tourists during the May Day holiday [1] - Over 1,000 events have been held around four themes, contributing to a sustained rise in the consumption market [1] Group 2 - The "2025 Greater Bay Area Consumption Season" will kick off on May 24, featuring the theme "Same Boat, Cantonese Rhythm Guangzhou," combining traditional and innovative consumption experiences [3] - The event will include unique cultural performances, food, and interactive experiences, showcasing Guangzhou's urban charm [3] - Key dining merchants will offer themed "Dragon Boat Banquet" packages, and financial institutions will innovate consumption models [5] Group 3 - Guangzhou will launch 50 "event tourism" boutique routes themed "Flower City is Fortunate, Welcoming the National Games" to attract overseas tourists [8] - Special transit visa-free travel routes and discounted travel packages will be developed in collaboration with airlines [8] - Various platforms, including China UnionPay, will provide one-stop services for travel payments, currency exchange, and tax refunds to facilitate consumption [8]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 2&3 ）从就业 & 工资来看 ，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡量）两个维度， 2024 年， 建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农民工就业人数 增长、同时工资增速提升，后续吸纳就业或仍有空间。交运仓储、批发零售、住宿餐饮则是"量升价落"， 后续吸纳就业或面临量与价的抉择。 4 ）从消费结构看 ，此前农民工消费结构更侧重商品消费，但从近期情况看，其教育、住房、娱乐等服务 消费或在快速增长，消费结构有望向服务倾斜。 5 ）从经济体感看， 我们计算农民工视角下的 GDP 增速。 2020-2022 年该增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速， 对应该时期消费 K 型复苏。 2023-2024 年农民工视角下的 GDP 增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速，对应该时期 消费下沉。而从 2025 年一季度看，农民工视角下的 GDP 与官方 GDP 之间的差距已基本弥合，意味着此 前的消费 K 型复苏、 ...

Group 1 - The development index for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China was reported at 89.2 in April, a slight decrease of 0.3 points from March, following a significant rise in the first quarter [1] - Among the sub-indices, 1 increased while 7 decreased, with 2 industry indices rising and 6 falling, indicating mixed performance across sectors [1] - The regional indices for SMEs showed declines across all areas, with the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions reporting indices of 90.2, 89.5, 88.8, and 81.2 respectively, all lower than in March [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic sentiment index, comprehensive operation index, market index, funding index, labor index, input index, and efficiency index all saw declines compared to March, with decreases ranging from 0.2 to 0.9 points [1] - The cost index shifted from a decrease to an increase, rising by 0.1 points from March, indicating a fluctuation in the economic environment for SMEs [1] - The real estate and wholesale retail sectors experienced a slight recovery, each increasing by 0.1 points compared to March, while other sectors like industry, construction, transportation, social services, information transmission software, and accommodation and catering saw declines [1] Group 3 - The executive vice president of the China SME Association emphasized the need to implement recent policies from the Central Political Bureau, including enhancing domestic market demand and providing support for private SMEs [2] - The government is encouraged to strengthen assistance for private SMEs to build resilience and create favorable conditions for stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [2]