证券研究报告 | 2026年02月07日 宏观经济周报 开局遇冷，二月迎暖 2026 年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，其首季经济表现备受瞩目。从 1 月 数据看，经济呈现显著的结构性分化特征。一方面，战略性新兴产业采购经 理指数（EPMI）环比升幅与 2024 年同期基本持平（考虑到春节时点相近）， 开局势头总体稳健，其中采购量、进口及就业等分项表现较好。另一方面， 制造业 PMI 环比回落，走势明显弱于 2024 年同期，尤其在生产、新订单等 关键需求指标上表现偏弱。这一"新兴产业强于整体制造业"的格局，延续 并强化了经济结构优化的长期趋势。1 月价格端也呈现积极信号，出厂价格 与原材料购进价格表现强劲，显示"反内卷"政策在促进工业品价格企稳回 升方面成效进一步显现。整体来看，1 月经济在结构上延续优化，但总量层 面未能延续去年 12 月的扩张势头，复苏进程出现阶段性波折。 积极信号在 2 月首周开始显现，各领域经济活动出现广泛改善，内需与外贸 短期动能均表现强劲。首先，生产端景气度明显回升，基建、机电及纺织等 领域生产活动普遍走强。其次，消费端受节前备货、出行增加拉动，市内客 流与物流投递量同比显著增长， ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, the GDP of Quanzhou reached 13778.34 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, with a three-industry structure of 2.0:50.5:47.5 [1][16][17] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery was 494.94 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6% from the previous year [2][18] - Agricultural output value rose to 210.48 billion yuan, up 5.5%, with grain production at 52.91 million tons, increasing by 2.5% [2][18] - The fishery sector saw a production value of 178.36 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%, with significant increases in abalone (23.2%) and shrimp (18.8%) production [4][20] Industrial Sector - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 7.0%, with key industries showing strong growth, such as paper and printing (13.4%) and machinery (11.0%) [5][21] - Private industrial enterprises saw an added value growth of 7.8%, outpacing the average growth rate [5][21] - High-tech industries also experienced growth, with electronic information increasing by 6.7% and resource recycling by 18.7% [5][21] Tertiary Sector - The added value of the tertiary industry grew by 4.7%, accounting for 47.5% of GDP, a historical high [6][22] - The wholesale and retail sector contributed significantly, with a growth of 6.1%, boosting the tertiary sector's growth by 2.2 percentage points [6][22] - Tourism thrived, with total visitors reaching 112.28 million, an increase of 11.1%, and total tourism spending rising by 11.3% [7][22] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 6416.07 billion yuan, growing by 4.1% [8][24] - Online retail sales surged by 17.8%, with significant growth in essential goods and cultural products [8][24] Investment and Construction - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.1%, with a notable increase in government infrastructure investment by 10.2% [9][25] - Private investment also rose by 5.6%, contributing positively to overall investment growth [10][26] Foreign Trade - The total foreign trade volume decreased by 12.9% to 2363.79 billion yuan, with exports down by 16.9% [11][27] - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 307.09 billion yuan, accounting for 18.6% of total exports [11][27] Fiscal and Financial Overview - The total public budget revenue was 991.60 billion yuan, increasing by 1.7%, with a focus on social welfare spending [13][28] - Financial institutions reported a growth in loans by 6.4%, with significant increases in sectors like leasing and business services [13][28] Income and Prices - The per capita disposable income reached 54858 yuan, growing by 5.1%, with rural income growth outpacing urban [14][29] - Consumer prices rose by 1.0%, with most categories experiencing price increases [15][30]

Economic Growth - In 2025, the GDP growth rates for Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei are projected to be 5.4%, 4.8%, and 5.6% respectively, indicating a steady improvement in development quality and accelerated collaborative development momentum [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries in the three regions is expected to grow by 6.5%, 4.2%, and 7.9% respectively [1] High-tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing added value in Beijing and Tianjin is projected to increase by 7.5% and 5.3% respectively, while strategic emerging industries in Beijing and Hebei are expected to grow by 15.5% and 11.0% respectively [1] - The production of high-tech products is anticipated to grow rapidly, with Beijing's new energy vehicle production expected to increase significantly, and industrial robot production in Tianjin and Hebei projected to grow by 17.9% and 29.3% respectively [1] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry in the three regions is expected to grow by 5.8%, 5.4%, and 6.1% respectively, with significant contributions from information transmission, software, and IT services, as well as the financial sector [1] - In Beijing, the added value of the information transmission, software, and IT services, and financial sectors is expected to grow by 11.0% and 8.7%, contributing over 70% to the city's economic growth [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the three regions is projected to grow by 5.5%, 1.6%, and 6.1% respectively, with equipment purchase investments significantly outpacing overall investment growth [2] - Equipment purchase investments are expected to increase by 66.0%, 24.1%, and 45.3% respectively, driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies [2] Consumer Market - The consumer market is recovering, with Beijing's new energy vehicle retail sales expected to grow by 13.2%, while Tianjin and Hebei's retail sales of communication equipment are projected to grow by 75.7% and 41.1% respectively [2] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment in Tianjin and Hebei are expected to grow by 14.6% and 12.6% respectively [2] Innovation and Collaboration - The establishment of the National Technology Innovation Center in Xiong'an has entered a substantive operational phase, with over 2,000 business entities introduced to the Zhongguancun Science and Technology City in Beijing [2] - The three regions have jointly funded over 220 basic research cooperation projects and are developing a collaborative innovation ecosystem [2] Employment and Income - The average urban unemployment rate in Beijing is projected to remain at 4.1%, while Tianjin and Hebei are expected to create 327,000 and 900,000 new jobs respectively [3] - Per capita disposable income for residents in the three regions is expected to be 89,090 yuan, 55,918 yuan, and 36,439 yuan, reflecting growth rates of 4.3%, 4.4%, and 5.1% respectively [3] Healthcare and Transportation - The three regions have established 115 medical alliances and are implementing 164 cooperation projects between Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin universities [3] - Transportation integration is accelerating, with the official operation of the Tongzhou Station in Beijing and the full connectivity of the Jing-Tang Intercity Railway [3]

2025年地区生产总值突破1.1万亿元，工业总产值达到1.32万亿元 2025年，烟台大力发展现代服务业，细化14个行业65项具体措施，协同开展2批50项生产性服务业 突破事项，新增规上服务业企业138家。1-11月，规模以上服务业营业收入同比增长3.3%。10大行业门 类中，9个行业营业收入实现增长，软件和信息技术服务业营业收入增长6.9%，租赁和商务服务业增长 10.8%，文化、体育和娱乐业增长11.9%。烟台出台加力提振消费实施方案，入选国家消费新业态新模 式新场景试点城市，发放消费品以旧换新资金20亿元，拉动消费136亿元。全年实现社会消费品零售总 额4068.8亿元，增长5.8%。 对外开放迈出新步伐。举办重要招商活动20余场，引进千万美元项目30个，万华科威特股权合作到 资6.38亿美元，是全省近年来最大的单体外资项目。积极应对外部复杂环境，实施外贸骨干、新增实 绩"双百工程"，组织"千企出海"，全年实现外贸进出口总值5379.3亿元，增长13.7%，其中，对欧盟增 长26.7%，对共建"一带一路"国家增长13.1%。 2025年，18项重点民生实事全部完成，民生支出占比达到79.5%。社会保障更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of Chaoyang District has significantly improved residents' quality of life and education over the past five years, with a focus on creating a "shared beautiful future" brand [1] Economic Development - Chaoyang District plays a crucial role in Beijing's economic landscape, contributing approximately 20% to the city's GDP, fiscal revenue, and social retail sales [3] - The district hosts nearly 3,700 national high-tech enterprises, over 1,200 specialized and innovative enterprises, 96 national "little giant" companies, and 25 unicorns, including 2 super unicorns valued over $10 billion, accounting for 11% of the national total [3] - Chaoyang is a major business hub, with rental and business services generating about 40% of Beijing's total revenue [3] Business and Technology - The district has implemented a dual-driven development strategy focusing on business and technology, achieving significant results in various sectors [4] - Chaoyang has transitioned from isolated breakthroughs to comprehensive industry linkages, establishing a "3+X+N" innovation system for technology industries [4] - The area has 23 technology industrial parks, with 9 recognized as city-level characteristic parks, enhancing the overall layout and connectivity of technology industries [4] Consumer Trends - Chaoyang is a key area for international consumption, integrating urban vitality, cultural energy, and international fashion into its consumer landscape [5] - The district has seen a renewal of 32 commercial entities, with over 100 large commercial complexes, the highest in the city [5] - More than 2,000 first stores have been introduced, representing about 50% of the city's total, enhancing the trend of innovative consumer experiences [5][6] Social Development - The district has focused on improving living conditions, with 638 backstreet renovations and 1.179 million square meters of old community upgrades completed [7] - Chaoyang has established 21 new schools and has been recognized as a national model for balanced compulsory education [7] - The healthcare system has expanded, with a 22.3% increase in medical institutions compared to the end of the previous five-year plan [7] Future Initiatives - In the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," Chaoyang aims to enhance its "Five Districts" functions and build a "Five Suitable" environment [10] - The district will continue to promote the "With the World, Together in Chaoyang" brand, welcoming global investors and tourists [10][11] - Efforts will be made to support cultural industries, including film, gaming, and traditional arts, while fostering international outreach [11]

Economic Overview - In 2025, Sichuan's GDP reached 67,665.34 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 5,751.35 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry added value was 23,260.22 billion yuan, increasing by 4.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 38,653.77 billion yuan, rising by 6.1% [1] Agricultural Production - The total grain output in Sichuan for 2025 was 36.625 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous year [1] - Notable increases in agricultural products included vegetables and edible fungi (4.1%), winter rapeseed (2.0%), tea (5.4%), and fruits (6.0%) [1] - Livestock production included 62.48 million pigs (1.6% growth), 3.01 million cattle (1.1% growth), and 1.97 million tons of aquatic products (5.2% growth) [1] Industrial Performance - The added value of Sichuan's above-scale industrial sector grew by 6.5%, with a product sales rate of 96.1% [2] - Among 41 major industries, 33 experienced growth, with automotive manufacturing increasing by 16.7%, electrical machinery by 13.2%, and computer and communication equipment by 12.9% [2] - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (10.9% growth), industrial robots (45.9% growth), and lithium-ion batteries (45.1% growth) [2] High-Tech Industry Growth - The added value of high-tech manufacturing in Sichuan rose by 12.3%, with electronic and communication equipment manufacturing growing by 20.2% [2] - The aerospace and aircraft manufacturing sector also saw a significant increase of 19.0% [2] Service Sector Development - The added value of the service sector increased by 6.1%, with leasing and business services growing by 14.4% and information technology services by 9.8% [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 29,135.4 billion yuan, marking a 5.1% increase, with notable growth in communication equipment (50.8%) and jewelry (32.6%) [3] Economic Strategy and Challenges - The overall economic outlook for Sichuan in 2025 indicates steady progress, with a focus on enhancing resilience and vitality [4] - Key strategies include promoting the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, implementing synchronized urban-rural development, and ensuring high-quality growth [4]

Economic Overview - In 2025, Shanghai's GDP reached 56,708.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% at constant prices [1] Industrial Production - Shanghai's industrial added value grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with total industrial output value increasing by 4.6% [2] - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing saw a significant increase of 15.8% in output [2] - The three leading manufacturing industries experienced a 9.6% growth, with integrated circuit manufacturing up by 15.1% and artificial intelligence manufacturing up by 13.6% [2] Service Sector Growth - The tertiary sector's added value increased by 6.0%, with the information transmission, software, and IT services sector leading at a growth rate of 15.3% [3] - The financial sector's added value reached 8,979.66 billion yuan, growing by 9.7% [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Shanghai grew by 4.6%, with industrial investment surging by 20.0%, significantly outpacing the overall investment growth [4] - Urban infrastructure investment rose by 11.2% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,600.93 billion yuan, marking a 4.6% year-on-year increase [5] - Online retail sales from major enterprises grew by 14.1% [5] Financial Market Activity - Major financial markets in Shanghai recorded a transaction volume of 40.5895 trillion yuan, up by 11.2% [6] - The balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 24.50 trillion yuan, growing by 11.3% [6] Trade Performance - Shanghai's total goods import and export volume reached 4.51 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 10.8% [7] - The export of "new three samples" products increased by 17.4%, including a 13.8% rise in electric vehicle exports [7] Price Trends and Income - The consumer price index (CPI) in Shanghai rose by 0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.7% [8] - The average disposable income per capita reached 91,987 yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.1% [9]

Report Summary - The annual GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, achieving the annual target. Exports grew by 5.5%, consumption by 3.7%, and investment declined by 3.8%. Compared with 2024, the economic structure was further transformed, with high-tech industries standing out. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.2 pct, exports decreased by 0.3 pct, and investment growth declined by 7 pct [3]. - In December, the production of the manufacturing industry improved significantly, while the growth rate of the mining industry declined. The year-on-year growth rates of the mining, manufacturing, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water industries were 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively, with changes of -0.9 pct, +1.1 pct, and -3.5 pct compared to the previous month [1]. - The service industry's business climate improved, especially the producer services. In December, the production index increased by 5% year-on-year, up 0.8 pct from the previous month. Among service industries, information software, leasing and business services, and the financial industry increased by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5% respectively, with growth rates up 1.9 pct, 2.9 pct, and 1.4 pct from the previous month [2]. - In December, the growth rate of the three major investment categories declined, but the investment growth rate of some high-tech manufacturing industries showed resilience. The investment growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate were -10.6%, -16.0%, and -35.8% respectively, down 6.1 pct, 4.0 pct, and 5.5 pct from the previous month [4]. - Real estate sales showed marginal stabilization, and new construction and completion improved. In December, the year-on-year sales volume and area of commercial housing were -23.6% and -15.6% respectively, with growth rates up 1.5 pct and 1.7 pct from the previous month. The year-on-year unit price was -9.5%, almost the same as the previous month. In terms of investment, the new construction and completion areas of real estate improved, with year-on-year rates of -19.4% and -18.3% respectively [4]. - Consumption growth slowed down, and the year-on-year growth of catering revenue was weaker than the previous month. In December, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.4 pct from the previous month and lower than the market consensus forecast of 1.48%. Both catering revenue and commodity sales declined from the previous month [4][5]. - In commodity retail, post-real estate cycle products improved, while general consumer goods weakened. In December, the sales growth rates of decoration materials, furniture, home appliances, and automobiles improved compared to the previous month. In contrast, the retail growth rates of grains, oils, beverages, office supplies, and clothing declined. Although precious metals rose rapidly in December, the sales growth rate of gold and silver jewelry declined for the second consecutive month [5]. - In the short term, interest rates showed a muted reaction to economic data. After the data release, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fluctuated by only about 0.3 bp. In the medium to long term, the annual economic data was generally in line with expectations. Two trends emerged: economic structural transformation and improved internal growth momentum. For 2026, "anti-involution" and rising prices suggest limited downside for interest rates [6]. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 economic data shows that the economy achieved the growth target, with structural transformation and high-tech industry development being prominent features [3]. - In December, there were mixed trends across different sectors, with manufacturing production improving, service industry business climate rising, investment growth slowing, and consumption growth weakening [1][2][4]. - In the medium to long term, the economic structure is transforming, and internal growth momentum is improving. Interest rates are expected to have limited downside in 2026 [6].

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, successfully meeting the annual growth target of around 5% [1] - The economic growth exhibited a "front high, back low" trend, characterized by "strong supply and weak demand" [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value in 2025 was 41.7 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.8%, with manufacturing added value at 34.7 trillion yuan, growing by 6.1% [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with added values increasing by 9.4% and 9.2% respectively [2] Service Sector Performance - The service sector's added value reached 80.89 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4%, and its share of GDP rose to 57.7% [3] - Notable growth was observed in information transmission, software, and IT services, with increases of 11.1% and 10.3% respectively [3] Export and Import Dynamics - China's total goods import and export volume was 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan, growing by 6.1% [5] - Despite external challenges, the export sector demonstrated resilience, contributing to overall economic stability [7] Consumer Spending Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.12 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, with service retail sales increasing by 5.5%, outpacing goods retail sales [6] - Significant growth was noted in specific service sectors, including tourism and leisure services, with some categories achieving over 20% growth [6] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.52 trillion yuan, declining by 3.8%, with infrastructure investment down by 2.2% [6] - Investment in high-tech industries remained robust, with information services and aerospace manufacturing seeing increases of 28.4% and 16.9% respectively [6] Future Economic Outlook - The economic foundation remains strong, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 driven by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [8][9] - Emphasis on enhancing consumer demand and stabilizing the real estate market is crucial for future economic performance [9][10]

Group 1 - The "2026 Zhuhai Economic High-Quality Development Action Plan" was officially issued, introducing 22 policy measures aimed at boosting investment, consumption, enterprise expansion, and livelihood protection to achieve a strong economic start in Q1 [1] - In the industrial investment sector, the plan offers rewards for industrial enterprises completing investment progress exceeding 50 million, 100 million, 200 million, and 500 million yuan, with maximum rewards of 70,000, 150,000, 250,000, and 400,000 yuan respectively [1] - Differentiated production incentive policies are established for various industries, with manufacturing enterprises achieving year-on-year output growth receiving rewards ranging from 70,000 to 700,000 yuan based on different scales [1] Group 2 - Wholesale and retail enterprises will receive direct support, with rewards for wholesale sales growth of 200 million, 500 million, and over 1 billion yuan, and retail sales growth of 30 million, 50 million, and over 100 million yuan, with maximum support of 80,000, 200,000, and 400,000 yuan respectively [2] - The real estate market will focus on stimulating housing demand, with a subsidy of 1% on the net signing price for residents participating in housing exchanges, capped at 30,000 yuan per unit [2] - The "Yue Enjoy Warm Winter, Shop Guangdong" consumption season will provide special consumption subsidies for automobiles, home appliances, and local products, along with dining promotions offering up to 100 yuan in discounts [2]