11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长0.44%。分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比 增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长4.3%。装备制造业增加值同比 增长7.7%，高技术制造业增加值增长8.4%，分别快于全部规模以上工业增加值2.9和3.6个百分点。分经 济类型看，国有控股企业增加值同比增长4.2%；股份制企业增长5.2%，外商及港澳台投资企业增长 3.4%；私营企业增长3.2%。分产品看，3D打印设备、工业机器人、新能源汽车产品产量同比分别增长 100.5%、20.6%、17.0%。1-11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%。11月份，制造业采购经 理指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；企业生产经营活动预期指数为53.1%，上升0.3个百分点。1- 10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59503亿元，同比增长1.9%。 ...

2025年1—11月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元，同比下降2.6%。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降5.3%。从环比看，11月份固定资产投资 （不含农户）下降1.03%。 分产业看，第一产业投资8770亿元，同比增长2.7%；第二产业投资162243亿元，增长3.9%；第三产业投资273022亿元，下降6.3%。 第二产业中，工业投资同比增长4.0%。其中，采矿业投资增长4.0%，制造业投资增长1.9%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长10.7%。 第三产业中，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）同比下降1.1%。其中，管道运输业投资增长16.8%，水上运输业投资增长8.9%，铁 路运输业投资增长2.7%。 分地区看，东部地区投资同比下降6.6%，中部地区投资下降1.7%，西部地区投资下降0.2%，东北地区投资下降14.0%。 分登记注册类型看，内资企业固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，港澳台企业固定资产投资下降2.2%，外商企业固定资产投资下降14.1%。 固定资产投资(不含农户) 其中:国有控股 其中:民间投资 按构成分 建筑安装工程 设备工器具购置 其他费用 分产业 ...

分产业看，第一产业投资8770亿元，同比增长2.7%；第二产业投资162243亿元，增长3.9%；第三产业投资273022亿元，下降6.3%。 第二产业中，工业投资同比增长4.0%。其中，采矿业投资增长4.0%，制造业投资增长1.9%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长10.7%。 2025年1—11月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元，同比下降2.6%（按可比口径计算，详见附注7）。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降 5.3%。从环比看，11月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下降1.03%。 第三产业中，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）同比下降1.1%。其中，管道运输业投资增长16.8%，水上运输业投资增长8.9%，铁 路运输业投资增长2.7%。 分地区看，东部地区投资同比下降6.6%，中部地区投资下降1.7%，西部地区投资下降0.2%，东北地区投资下降14.0%。 分登记注册类型看，内资企业固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，港澳台企业固定资产投资下降2.2%，外商企业固定资产投资下降14.1%。 2025年1—11月份固定资产投资（不含农户）主要数据 | | 指 标 | 同比增长 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Huaxian Futures Macroeconomic Monthly Report - The Downward Trend of the Real Estate Sector Accelerates, Pay Attention to Policy Stimulus at the End of the Year [1] - Author: Shi Shuyu - Date: 2025-11-30 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January to October 2025, the profits and revenues of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, and the profit in October decreased year-on-year. Different industries showed varying degrees of profit changes [8]. - In October 2025, the CPI rose slightly, and is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased [8]. - In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached a new monthly high, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of various industries [10]. - In October 2025, the fiscal revenue increased year-on-year, while the fiscal expenditure decreased year-on-year, with significant declines in some expenditure items [10]. - In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline [10]. - From January to October 2025, the decline in fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) expanded, and the decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (previous value 3.2%); the operating revenue was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (previous value 2.4%). In October, the profit decreased by 5.5% year-on-year[8]. - **CPI**: In October 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, non - food prices increased by 0.9%, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.8%. From January to October, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year[8]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electricity consumption was 8624.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%[10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative general fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the general fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. From January to October, the cumulative general fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the general fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.78%[10]. - **Real Estate Market**: In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline[10]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened[13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - The report presents the quarterly year - on - year growth rates of GDP and its various components from 2023 to 2025, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, and services[16]. - It also shows the contribution rates of various industries to GDP and the pulling effects on GDP growth[21]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Growth**: The growth rate of industrial added value of industries above designated size showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, such as coal mining and non - metallic mineral products industries showing varying performances[32]. - **Industrial Output**: The report provides the production data of major industrial products from 2024 to 2025, such as crude oil, coal, and steel[34]. - **Industry Electricity Consumption**: The electricity consumption of different industries showed different growth trends. Some industries, such as the textile and clothing industry, had relatively high growth rates in electricity consumption[43]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline[46]. - **Industrial Enterprise Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8%. The inventory situation of different industries also varied[58]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Different CPI components showed different price changes, such as food prices decreasing and non - food prices increasing[64]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the national PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed compared with the previous month. The prices of production materials and living materials also showed different changes[71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities rebounded with fluctuations, and most varieties in the industrial and agricultural product sectors rebounded. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut significantly increased, Sino-US relations continued to ease, and geopolitical situations had an impact on international oil prices [3]. - Commodities will maintain a volatile range with differentiated trends among varieties. Currently, macro factors are mixed, and there are uncertainties regarding the December interest rate cut, the domestic economic slowdown, and geopolitical changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: Domestic commodities rebounded with fluctuations this week. The expectation of a December interest rate cut rose, Sino-US relations improved, and geopolitical situations affected oil prices [3]. - **Overseas**: Fed officials' dovish remarks increased the probability of a December interest rate cut from 43% to 80%. The US economy shows "K-shaped differentiation," and consumer spending may weaken in Q4. There are developments in the Ukraine peace plan, which affected oil prices [3]. - **Domestic**: From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with different growth rates in different sectors. China's foreign direct investment maintained resilient growth from January to October [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodities will maintain a volatile range due to mixed macro factors, including interest rate cut uncertainty, domestic economic slowdown, and geopolitical changes [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - Fed officials' remarks increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The US economic activity changed little, consumer spending weakened, and there were developments in the Ukraine peace plan affecting oil prices [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with different growth rates in different sectors. China's foreign direct investment maintained resilient growth from January to October [3][21][25]. PART FOUR: High-Frequency Data Tracking - Data on开工率 of polyester产业链 and高炉开工率, prices of POY and PTA, and agricultural product prices are presented, showing certain trends and changes [34][41][43].

1 — 10 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 59502.9 亿元，同比增长 1.9% （按可比口径计算，详见附注二）。 1 — 10 月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额 18490.2 亿元，同比 持平；股份制企业实现利润总额 44328.3 亿元，增长 1.5% ；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利 润总额 14848.6 亿元，增长 3.5% ；私营企业实现利润总额 16995.6 亿元，增长 1.9% 。 1 — 10 月份，采矿业实现利润总额 7123.3 亿元，同比下降 27.8% ；制造业实现利润 总额 45050.3 亿元，增长 7.7% ；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额 7329.3 亿元，增长 9.5% 。 1 — 10 月份，主要行业利润情况如下：有色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增长 14.0% ，电力、热力生产和供应业增长 13.1% ，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长 12.8% ，农副食品加工业增长 8.5% ，电气机械和器材制造业增长 7.0% ，通用设备制造业 增长 6.2% ，专用设备制造业增长 5.0% ，汽车制造业增长 4.4% ，非金属 ...

Core Insights - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 59,502.9 billion yuan from January to October, showing stable growth [1] - The profit growth rate for these enterprises was 1.9% year-on-year, maintaining an upward trend for three consecutive months since August [1] - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.7%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries grew by 9.5% [1] Industrial Performance - The operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.8% year-on-year, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [1] - The profit of the equipment manufacturing industry rose by 7.8% year-on-year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector accounted for 38.5% of the total profit of all industrial enterprises, an increase of 2.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating an ongoing optimization of industrial efficiency [1] High-Tech Manufacturing - The profit of high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 8% year-on-year, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points [2] - The smart electronics manufacturing sector is experiencing positive development [2]

Core Insights - The industrial economy in China is experiencing stable growth in profits, with a 1.9% year-on-year increase in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in the first ten months of the year, following a 1.8% increase in revenue [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector has shown significant profit growth, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit increase of large-scale industrial enterprises, with a profit share of 38.5% [1] - High-tech manufacturing is outperforming the average industrial sector, with an 8% profit increase, particularly in smart electronics and semiconductor manufacturing [2] Group 1: Industrial Performance - In the first ten months, the mining sector saw a decline of 27.8%, while manufacturing grew by 7.7% and the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sector increased by 9.5% [1] - In October, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year due to high base effects and rising financial costs [1] Group 2: Equipment Manufacturing - The profit of large-scale equipment manufacturing enterprises increased by 7.8% in the first ten months, with seven out of eight major categories showing profit growth [1] - The railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and electronics industries experienced double-digit profit growth, with increases of 32% and 12.8% respectively [1] Group 3: High-Tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 8%, significantly above the overall industrial average [2] - The smart drone and smart vehicle equipment manufacturing sectors saw remarkable profit growth of 116.1% and 114.9% respectively [2] - Semiconductor manufacturing also showed strong performance, with integrated circuit manufacturing profits rising by 89.2% [2] Group 4: Traditional Industries - Traditional industries are undergoing quality upgrades, with profits in certain sectors like graphite and carbon products, and biochemical pesticides growing by 77.7% and 73.4% respectively, surpassing industry averages [2] - In the chemical fiber and rubber sectors, profits from bio-based chemical fiber and recycled rubber manufacturing increased by 61.2% and 15.4% respectively [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - The chief statistician from the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the need for coordinated policy efforts to enhance domestic demand and improve industrial structure amidst complex international and domestic challenges [3]

Core Insights - Industrial enterprises' profits increased by 1.9% year-on-year from January to October, maintaining growth for three consecutive months since August [2] - In October, profits decreased by 5.5% year-on-year due to high base effects and rising financial costs [2] - Revenue for industrial enterprises grew by 1.8% year-on-year from January to October, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [2] Industry Performance - Mining industry profits fell by 27.8% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to January to September [2] - Manufacturing profits increased by 7.7% year-on-year, while profits in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sectors rose by 9.5% [2] - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 7.8% year-on-year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3] - High-tech manufacturing profits rose by 8.0% year-on-year, outperforming the average for all industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points [3] Traditional Industry Upgrades - Traditional industries showed significant profit growth, with specific sectors like graphite and carbon products, biochemical pesticides, and cultural information chemicals seeing profits rise by 77.7%, 73.4%, and 19.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The improvement in traditional industries indicates a shift towards higher productivity, added value, and profit margins [3] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that coordinated policy efforts are needed to expand domestic demand, optimize structure, and foster new energy, aiming for a qualitative and quantitative upgrade in the industrial economy [4]

11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。虽较1—9月回落1.3个百分点，但自8 月以来累计增速已连续三个月保持正向改善。其中，传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明显高于行业平均水平。 单月来看，10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁解读称，系受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快 等因素影响。前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙关注了需求端，他认为，10月份，社会消费品零售总额增速相比上月有所下降，内需不足是影响 工业企业增长的重要原因。 值得一提的是，近日，工业和信息化部会同五部门联合印发了《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》（以下简称《实施方案》），将有 利于企业生产的产品适销对路、优质优价，并激发消费潜力，促进经济循环畅通。 展望下一阶段，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，在利润基数平稳、价格因素改善的共同作用下，预计工业利润累计增速仍将保 持正向改善，但受前期基数逐步抬升等因素制约，回升斜率可能趋于温和。 累计增速连增三个月 自今 ...