Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and inventories are expected to continue the destocking trend. The peak season for greenhouse films is approaching, and packaging film orders are also supported, with the demand side gradually improving. In the medium - long term, the planned restart of some devices and the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant in September will increase the industry's supply pressure. The global crude oil supply - demand is weak, and although the short - term geopolitical deterioration in the Middle East still supports oil prices to some extent, it has an impact on costs. Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the pressure around 7,300 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,240 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,185 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The trading volume was 212,912 lots, down 11,546 lots; the open interest was 490,459 lots, up 9,091 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 62, down 12. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 333,381 lots, up 7,130 lots; the short positions were 360,509 lots, up 5,936 lots; the net long positions were - 27,128 lots, up 1,194 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,266.96 yuan/ton, down 11.74 yuan; in East China was 7,340.48 yuan/ton, down 7.38 yuan. The basis was 14.96, up 6.26 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.94 US dollars/barrel, up 0.47 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 600.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 836 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.56%, down 0.29 percentage points; of pipes was 30.17%, down 0.5 percentage points; of agricultural films was 17.46%, up 2.93 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 5.89%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.51%, up 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.38%, up 0.79 percentage points; of at - the - money call options was 10.37%, up 0.79 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 22nd to 28th, China's total polyethylene production was 617,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 78.72%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.3% from the previous period. As of September 3rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 450,800 tons, a 5.57% increase from the previous period; as of August 29th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 560,500 tons, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period [2]

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 2.49% on September 3, with Shangwei New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - Guofeng New Materials (Code: 000859) with a closing price of 7.10, up 6.13% [1] - Jinfake Technology (Code: 600143) with a closing price of 16.09, up 3.41% [1] - Nengzhiguang (Code: 920056) with a closing price of 30.38, up 3.23% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Shangwei New Materials (Code: 688585) with a closing price of 82.66, down 15.31% [2] - Henghe Precision (Code: 300539) with a closing price of 29.01, down 8.14% [2] - Hechang Polymer (Code: 832089) with a closing price of 19.22, down 6.20% [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 1 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 291 million yuan [2] - Major funds showed a net inflow in: - Jinfake Technology with 116 million yuan [3] - Guofeng New Materials with 90 million yuan [3] - Wankai New Materials with 46 million yuan [3] - Conversely, significant outflows were noted in: - Shangwei New Materials with a net outflow of 1.92 billion yuan [3] - Guofeng New Materials with a net outflow of 877 million yuan [3] - Wankai New Materials with a net outflow of 543 million yuan [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are bearish, with the supply expected to increase in the medium - long term while domestic demand is weak due to the poor performance of the real - estate market and insufficient domestic product orders. The anti - dumping policy from India also adds pressure. However, the price is at a historically low level, which limits the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 751,072 lots, down 16,722 lots; the open interest is 1,206,310 lots, up 6,574 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125,894 lots, down 12,175 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4699.23 yuan/ton, down 22.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4895 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4791.25 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2373 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East middle - price is 503 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars/ton; the EDC CFR Far East middle - price is 189 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.02%, down 1.59 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 77.25%, up 0.44 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, down 6.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.19 tons, up 1.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 2810.593 billion yuan, up 363.043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.85%, down 1.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.07%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 14.98%, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points respectively [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 2, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton. From August 23rd to 29th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. As of August 28th, the PVC social inventory was 896,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.10% [3]. 3.8 Outlook - In the short term, the restart of some devices such as Zhongtai and Formosa Plastics Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. India's anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented in September [3].

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.57% on September 2, with Dongcai Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included Shangwei New Materials, which rose by 14.66%, and Dadongnan, which increased by 10.11% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the plastic sector was 5.92 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 5.64 billion yuan [3] - The table provided details on individual stock performance and trading volumes within the plastic sector [3]

Report Overview - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released on September 2, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the prices of methanol in different regions showed some fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2275 to 2230, and the Northwest discounted price decreased from 2680 to 2645 [2] Core View - The trading logic is that the port pressure is transmitted to the inland. Although the inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increments from Lianhong, the port will continuously form a backflow impact. Currently, the price on the disk is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The backflow can resolve the port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Therefore, it is necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polyethylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 840, while the North China LL price decreased from 7270 to 7170, and the East China LL price decreased from 7400 to 7290 [6] Core View - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal chemical industries are destocking, the social inventory is flat, and the downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [6] Polypropylene (PP) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polypropylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6450 to 6580, while the East China PP price decreased from 6985 to 6845 [7] Core View - The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] PVC Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of PVC in different regions and forms showed some fluctuations. For example, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 [7] Core View - The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. The Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]

Group 1 - Zhonglun New Materials plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 4 million shares, accounting for 1% of the total share capital [1] - Haojiang Intelligent plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1.5 million shares, accounting for 0.8364% of the total share capital [1] - Dekeli plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 474,180 shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital [1][2] Group 2 - Fosun Pharma's subsidiary has received FDA approval for its HLX14 injection, intended for treating osteoporosis in postmenopausal women [3][4] - Shengtai Group plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 16.67 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital [5] - Fangyuan Co. plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 15.3 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital [6] Group 3 - Shenkai Co. completed a tender offer, resulting in 14.5655 million shares being accepted, giving the acquirer a 9.71% stake [8] - Guangdong Construction's 90MW solar-storage project in Tibet has achieved full capacity grid connection [9] - Kesi Technology plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 471,220 shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital [9] Group 4 - Zhongtai Automobile's subsidiary faces forced execution, impacting its operational capacity [10] - Weima Agricultural Machinery plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 960,000 shares, accounting for 0.98% of the total share capital [10] - Tianqi Co. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with EVE Energy to enhance the lithium battery supply chain [11] Group 5 - Sudavige plans to acquire up to 51% of Changzhou Weipu Semiconductor Equipment Co. for a total valuation of up to 1 billion yuan [12] - Dengyun Co. plans to transfer 75% of its subsidiary's equity for 137 million yuan [13] - Sierte has received a notice of investigation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [14] Group 6 - Enjie Co. received a VAT refund of 188 million yuan for its subsidiary [15] - Jiama Clothing plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 366,000 shares, accounting for 0.28238% of the total share capital [16] - Xinong Co. plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1.05 million shares, accounting for 0.6737% of the total share capital [17] Group 7 - Jiewate plans to jointly acquire 66.25% of Xinguang Haian for a total price of 418 million yuan [18] - Hubei Energy reported an increase in power generation by 22.05% year-on-year in August, with a total of 5.020 billion kWh generated [19][20] - Nasda signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Teld for collaboration in market and product innovation [21] Group 8 - Jinli Technology plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 978,200 shares, accounting for 0.56% of the total share capital [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, the PVC fundamentals still face pressure, with high inventory levels, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about a new round of speculative expectations brought by unexpected policies [2] Summary by Directory Supply:检修计划增加有限，预计产量维持高位 - In early August, many production enterprises resumed operations after maintenance, leading to a decrease in loss volume compared to July. It is expected that maintenance in September will be high at the beginning and low at the end, and the production volume will remain at a high level with fluctuations [2][5] - The operating rate increased slightly month - on - month. The 8 - month production volume increased by 60,000 tons, all from ethylene - based plants, and it is expected to remain at a high level with fluctuations subsequently [19] Demand:房地产施工将逐步回升，预计管材和型材开工增加 - In August, the downstream operating rate recovered but decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected to remain stable in September. The real estate transactions are fluctuating at a low level. Although the real estate construction will recover, it is still weak overall, providing limited support for the demand of PVC downstream pipes and profiles. With India imposing higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese PVC, exports are expected to decline [2][21][34] - In August, downstream enterprises made small - scale stockpiling, and as the September delivery approached, traders were actively trading [28] Inventory:供需压力仍在，总库存高位震荡 - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. As the basis weakened significantly, refinery inventories flowed into the social market, leading to an increase in total inventory. The warehouse receipts also increased rapidly. In September, domestic demand is expected to recover, but exports are expected to decline, and the fundamental pressure remains high. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level with limited changes [2][44] Spread:预计基差逐步走强 - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. As the delivery approaches, the near - month contract has a relatively large decline [54] Profit:电石法和乙烯法利润表现偏弱 - The profit performance of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weak [58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the inventory is expected to maintain a destocking trend. The cost is affected by the weak global oil supply - demand and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks, while the short - term deterioration of the Middle East geopolitical situation still supports oil prices. Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7200 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 7270, down 17; 1 - month contract is 7270, down 17; 5 - month contract is 7276, down 23; 9 - month contract is 7204, down 26. The 9 - 1 spread is - 66, down 9. The volume is 324382 hands, up 41667; the open interest is 468822 hands, up 28457. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30386 hands, down 8401 [2]. Spot Market - LLDPE(7042) average price in North China is 7300.87 yuan/ton, down 17.83; in East China is 7384.76 yuan/ton, down 0.95. The basis is 13.87, up 53.17 [2]. Upstream Situation - FOB: middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.19 dollars/barrel, up 0.44; CFR: middle price of naphtha in Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia is 831 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Northeast Asia is 841 dollars/ton, down 2 [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 78.68%, down 0.04 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 49.56%, down 0.29; of PE pipes is 30.17%, down 0.5; of PE agricultural film is 17.46%, up 2.93 [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 5.85%, down 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.47%, up 0.08. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.35%, up 0.01; of at - the - money call options is 9.36%, up 0.03 [2]. Industry News - From August 22nd to 28th, China's polyethylene production was 61.78 million tons, down 0.50% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.72%, down 0.04 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3%. As of August 27th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 42.70 million tons, down 14.92%; as of August 22nd, the social inventory was 56.20 million tons, up 0.99% [2].

Market Overview - On September 1, the plastic sector experienced a slight decline of 0.04%, with Meilian New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.53, up 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12828.95, up 1.05% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - Haizheng Biomaterials (688203) with a closing price of 16.66, up 20.03% on a trading volume of 124,500 shares [1] - Wankai New Materials (301216) closed at 18.07, up 6.29% with a trading volume of 289,400 shares [1] - Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928) closed at 18.49, up 5.96% with a trading volume of 262,200 shares [1] - Conversely, Meilian New Materials (300586) saw a significant decline of 14.83%, closing at 11.54 with a trading volume of 1,083,000 shares [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 537 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 384 million yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that major stocks like Dadongnan (002263) and Weike Technology (301196) had varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor types [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short - term and have a sideways movement in the medium - term [1][2] - The trend strength of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures data: The closing price of L2601 was 7287, with a daily decline of 0.88%. The trading volume was 282,715, and the open interest increased by 26,798 [1] - Basis and spread data: The basis of the 01 contract was - 107 (previous day: - 158), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 12 (previous day: - 4) [1] - Spot price data: In North China, the price was 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7200); in East China, it was 7280 yuan/ton (previous day: 7300); in South China, it remained at 7400 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market price of LLDPE decreased slightly, with a range of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment was poor. However, at the end of the month, petrochemical companies stopped sales for settlement, and factory prices remained stable, supporting the market quotes. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the trading volume was average [1] Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is continuously improving due to the upcoming peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports the PE price [2] - In recent days, the commodity sentiment has significantly declined, leading to a weak performance in futures [2] - In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August. The maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in East China [2] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a slight inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not significant. Therefore, PE may continue to trade in a range in the medium - term [2]