Workflow
老旧装置淘汰
icon
Search documents
【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报:震荡下行-20251125
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the overall supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastics are expected to experience weak oscillations in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. In addition, the Trump administration is trying to promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky has shown an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 700,000 tons/year were recently put into operation. The plastics operating rate decreased slightly [1] - The agricultural film is entering the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season falling short of expectations. The price of agricultural film is stable. As the temperature drops, the demand in the north begins to decrease, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline [1] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is no actual policy for anti-involution in the plastics industry yet. Anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,822 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, below the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.28%. The position volume decreased by 9,070 lots to 488,359 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from -80 to +50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,640 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 685,000 tons compared to the previous day, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil: the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to $63/barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720/ton week-on-week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730/ton week-on-week [4]
PP日报:震荡下行-20251125
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PP market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, with limited follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving. There is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, and the anti - involution policy in the PP industry has not been implemented yet [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving start - up rate of the main downstream of drawstring remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 25th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Shanghai Secco's single - line led to an increase in the PP enterprise start - up rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price dropped. New production capacity was put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract increased positions and fluctuated downward, closing at 6317 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The position increased by 581 lots to 605,759 lots [2] - **Spot**: PP spot prices in various regions partially declined, with drawstring reported at 6180 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 25th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Shanghai Secco's single - line led to an increase in the PP enterprise start - up rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 21st, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving start - up rate of the main downstream of drawstring remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 68.5 tons week - on - week, 8 tons higher than the same period last year, and the petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down [4] 4. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]
聚烯烃周报:冠通期货研究报告-20251124
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 11:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The polyolefin industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic (PE)开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 89.5%, at a neutral level [14] - PP开工率 rose by 0.5 percentage points to around 83.5%, at a slightly below - neutral level [14] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 21, PE下游开工率 increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%, still at a relatively low level in recent years [19] - As of the week of November 21, PP下游开工率 rose by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [19] Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 150 yuan/ton, at a slightly below - neutral level [24] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 68.5 million tons, 8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed down [28] Market Situation and Outlook - The petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly above - neutral level in recent years [3][28] - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation, including ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical PE with an annual capacity of 700,000 tons, and PP with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons [3] - The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and orders for products like plastic weaving have limited follow - up, with the peak season falling short of expectations [3] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling goods at reduced prices [3] - There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the polyolefin industry yet, and relevant macro - policies will affect future market trends [3]
塑料日报:震荡下行-20251121
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as unchanged supply - demand patterns, slowing petrochemical inventory reduction, and insufficient downstream procurement willingness [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang's LDPE 1 line increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [1][4]. - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak - season end, with stable orders but lower - than - expected peak - season performance. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the lack of impact on Russian oil production from new sanctions and the potential for a cease - fire in the Ukraine conflict [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently [1]. 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 0.65% with a low of 6768 yuan/ton, a high of 6841 yuan/ton, and closed at 6770 yuan/ton below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 3991 lots to 512,746 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6790 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6950 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and slightly increased raw material inventory, and packaging film orders also slightly increased. However, the overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.85 million tons, 0.8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed [4]. - Raw materials: Brent crude oil's 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, while the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720 and $730 per ton respectively [4].
PP日报:震荡下行-20251121
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:06
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends due to factors such as increased supply from restarted devices and new capacity, limited downstream demand, high inventory levels, and falling crude oil prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **行情分析** - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product unchanged at 44.24% and slightly fewer orders than last year [1] - On November 21, some maintenance devices restarted, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to rise to around 83.5%, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 increased to around 27% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Crude oil prices fell due to factors such as Russia's oil production being unaffected by sanctions and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Ukraine conflict [1] - New capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, with limited order follow - up and lack of large - scale centralized procurement, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - Anti - involution policies and the elimination of old devices to address over - capacity are macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] **期现行情** - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract decreased by 0.61% to close at 6357 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8880 lots in open interest to 626,835 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined, with the拉丝 product priced at 6180 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] **基本面跟踪** - **Supply**: On November 21, some maintenance devices restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 83.5% [4] - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product was unchanged at 44.24% [1][4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 68.5 million tons on Friday, 8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and inventory reduction slowed down [4] **原料端原油** - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to 63 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at 730 US dollars per ton [6]
震荡运行:塑料日报-20251120
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of the plastic industry remains unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and downstream peak seasons, it is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [1][4]. - The end of the US government shutdown and the strengthening of refined oil crack spreads in Europe and the US led to a rebound in crude oil prices after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently. The agricultural film peak season is coming to an end, downstream operating rates are falling, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,779 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,835 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.32%. The position volume decreased by 11,929 lots to 516,737 lots [2]. Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,220 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,750 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,950 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $720 per ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [4].
震荡运行:PP日报-20251120
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply is increasing, with the overall supply - demand pattern unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost and season, it is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 20, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical increased the PP enterprise operating rate to about 81.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to about 25.5% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, after the end of the US government shutdown, the crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continued to strengthen, and the crude oil price rebounded after the decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus became more widely recognized, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices increased recently. The downstream is in the off - season, and the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, with no large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited impact on the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, with a minimum price of 6,368 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 6,431 yuan per ton, and finally closed at 6,400 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.34%. The position volume decreased by 2,378 lots to 617,955 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6,200 - 6,560 yuan per ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical increased the PP enterprise operating rate to about 81.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream operating rate rose 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]
【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报:震荡下行-20251118
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 14:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to experience weak and volatile trends as the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and the downstream peak season [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the downstream plastic weaving开工率 for the main拉丝 product decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 18th, new maintenance devices such as the single - line of Yuntianhua were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 82%, a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard - grade拉丝 remained around 24% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and crude oil prices rebounded after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become more widely recognized, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1] - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in a volatile manner with increased positions. The lowest price was 6,475 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,488 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,392 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 5,494 lots to 638,372 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 18th, new maintenance devices such as the single - line of Yuntianhua were added, and the PP enterprise开工率 dropped to around 82%, a moderately low level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 14th, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the downstream plastic weaving开工率 for the main拉丝 product decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $730 per ton week - on - week [4]
塑料日报:震荡上行-20251114
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 12:38
报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]
PP日报:震荡运行-20251112
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 11:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - PP downstream demand is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. With the restart of some maintenance devices and the increase in enterprise operating rates, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 12, some maintenance devices such as a line of Guangxi Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstrings increased to about 26%. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The cost side is in a narrow - range shock. The supply has increased, while the downstream demand has limited follow - up, and there is no actual anti - involution policy in the PP industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6434 yuan/ton, the highest was 6474 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6460 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.11%. The position decreased by 4959 lots to 636592 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions were mostly stable, with drawstrings quoted at 6260 - 6570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 12, some maintenance devices such as a line of Guangxi Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 84%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 01 oscillated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $710 per ton [6]