Summary of the Conference Call for Lanhua Ketech Company Overview - **Company**: Lanhua Ketech - **Industry**: Coal and Chemical Industry Key Points and Arguments Operational Challenges - **Amei Danning's License Expiration**: Amei Danning has ceased operations due to the expiration of its business license, leading to a dispute with Lanhua Ketech regarding the cooperation period and resource recovery, which involves a significant number of employees [2][3][5] - **Investment Contribution**: Last year, the mine contributed over 200 million yuan in investment income to Lanhua Ketech, while in Q1 of this year, the contribution was approximately 5.5 million yuan, accounting for 41% of the shares [2][7] Valuation Enhancement Plan - **Background**: The valuation enhancement plan was initiated in response to the China Securities Regulatory Commission's guidelines for companies with long-term negative net asset values [2][8] - **Measures**: The plan includes integrating existing mines, upgrading coal chemical processes, and increasing dividend payout ratios to 30% of net profit [4][12] Coal Chemical Projects - **Energy Efficiency Upgrades**: The coal chemical energy-saving and environmental upgrade project aims to maintain existing production capacity while expanding the capacity for synthetic ammonia and urea, with expected outputs of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 800,000 tons of urea, and 920 million cubic meters of LNG [2][9] - **New Mining Operations**: The trial operation of new coal seams is planned for 2026-2028, which will extend the mining period by at least 20 years [2][9] Environmental Standards - **Tianwan Pure Oxygen Gasification Project**: This project aims to enhance environmental standards by converting from atmospheric gasification to high-pressure boilers, improving operational efficiency and production capacity [2][10] Financial Performance and Cost Management - **Cost Structure**: The production cost per ton is approximately 260 to 270 yuan, with total costs around 370 yuan [15] - **Revenue and Profit Goals**: The company aims for total revenue of 11.4 billion yuan and a profit of 850 million yuan for the year, with a production target of 14.5 million tons [16] Market Conditions - **Coal Inventory**: As of Q1 2025, coal inventory was around 600,000 to 700,000 tons, showing an increase compared to last year due to market supply and demand dynamics [13] - **Coal Price Trends**: The company continues to execute coal supply at a capped price of 570 yuan per ton, despite market fluctuations [21] Challenges in the Mining Sector - **Loss-Making Mines**: Three mines (Tongbao, Baisheng, and Qingyu) are currently at the brink of losses due to high fixed asset depreciation and poor coal quality [14] Future Capital Expenditure - **Investment Plans**: Future capital expenditures will focus on the Demei Chemical project with an estimated total investment of 3.962 billion yuan over two years, alongside smaller investments in new coal projects [30] Profitability Outlook - **Profit Coverage**: Expected profits are projected to cover annual capital expenditures, ensuring financial sustainability [31] Additional Important Information - **Employee Impact**: The operational halt affects approximately 1,000 to 2,000 employees, necessitating urgent communication to resolve the situation [5][6] - **Stockholder Engagement**: The company plans to enhance communication with investors and consider share buyback options as part of its valuation enhancement strategy [4][12]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年5月BCI读数为50.3，较前值小幅上行0.2个点。从这一指标可以理解"924"以来的经济节奏：2024年10-11月，政策初步见效，微观状况连续好 转；2024年12月，地方集中化债，经济景气度有所回踩；2025年1-3月，民营企业家座谈会叠加Deep Seek重大突破，微观景气度第二轮上行；4月，关税扰动 下经济再度出现回踩；5月，一揽子金融政策叠加关税缓和，经济再度企稳。从万得全A指数观测，股票市场基本上是相似的节奏，可见市场定价的有效性。 第二， 和总量上的弱修复特征对应，从主要分项指标来看，微观状况仍冷热参半：较前值好转的主要是企业融资环境、就业、消费品价格预期分项；继续下行的主 要是中间品价格预期、盈利预期、投资预期分项。 第三， 融资环境改善应主要与5月初一揽子金融政策有关，包括货币政策一端"降准+降息+结构性工具扩容"，以及金融政策一端确保外贸企业"应贷尽贷、应续尽 续"；同时中美日内瓦联合声明后，外需产业链的基本面和信用状况也有所改善。BCI融资环境指数环比上行1.1个点，估计5月信贷情况会好于4月。从大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 15.03% of Guanghui Energy by Fude Life Insurance and Fude Financial Holdings for 6.35 RMB per share reflects a growing trend of insurance capital investing in high-dividend assets, with a notable increase in such activities in 2023 [2][6][7]. Company Summary - Guanghui Energy announced that Fude Life Insurance and Fude Financial Holdings plan to invest 6.2 billion RMB to acquire 15.03% of its shares, translating to approximately 9.76 billion shares [3][6]. - Following the acquisition, Fude Life Insurance will hold 9.83% and Fude Financial Holdings will hold 5.20% of Guanghui Energy, while Guanghui Group will retain a 20.06% stake [6][7]. - Guanghui Energy has a strong focus on natural gas, coal, and coal chemical sectors, and has implemented a high dividend strategy, distributing a total of 13.72 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 134.27% in 2024 [7][8]. Industry Summary - Insurance capital has accelerated its entry into the capital market, with 16 reported acquisitions by May 23, 2023, nearing the total of 20 for the entire previous year [8][9]. - The preference for high-dividend assets among insurance companies is evident, with many of the top ten stocks acquired in Q1 2023 having dividend yields exceeding 3% [10]. - Regulatory changes and favorable policies are encouraging insurance companies to increase their equity investments, with a focus on long-term capital strategies [9][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of innovative and competitive enterprises in driving high-quality economic development in Ordos City, with a focus on government support and corporate efforts [1] - In the first quarter of this year, Ordos City's GDP reached 139.97 billion, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries growing by 6.0%, 6.1%, and 4.2% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - Inner Mongolia Jianheng Aoneng Technology Co., Ltd. has launched the world's first 720V high-voltage sodium salt battery, which operates effectively in temperatures ranging from -40°C to 60°C and has a cycle life of up to 7000 cycles, significantly surpassing traditional lithium battery safety [3] - The sodium salt battery production base, once fully operational, is expected to have an annual output value of 6 billion and generate tax revenue of 390 million [3] Group 3 - Northwest Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. has faced six consecutive years of losses due to high raw material prices and insufficient market demand, but has recently turned a profit of 17.42 million in the first four months of this year by leveraging favorable coal prices and stable methanol demand [5] - The company has implemented a detailed plan to reduce losses, including a responsibility checklist for achieving over 100 million in loss reduction by 2025, which has engaged all 400 employees in cost-saving initiatives [5][6] Group 4 - In April, the Ordos City Manufacturing Digital Transformation Pilot Fund provided 4.9419 million in support to various enterprises for smart upgrades, demonstrating government backing for technological innovation [8] - The "30 New Technology Policies" 2.0 version has allocated 449 million in subsidies to over 600 innovative enterprises, fostering a robust environment for technological advancement [8] - Ordos City has 102 enterprises listed in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region's 2025 Innovative Small and Medium Enterprises list, indicating a growing presence of technology-driven market leaders [8]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three commodities (urea, soda ash, and glass) are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea market is in short - term supply - demand game with clear ceiling for spot prices. Without new drivers, the futures market will continue wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to demand fulfillment and weather [1] - Soda ash market has limited new drivers in the short - term. Futures prices may continue range - bound oscillation, and the long - term pattern remains loose. Monitor industry开工 changes and demand follow - up rhythm [1] - Glass market lacks obvious positive support. With prices at a relative bottom, the market may see some purchasing by industry players. Before clear positive factors emerge, the market will be in bottom - wide range oscillation. Follow downstream low - price purchasing and macro/market sentiment [1] Group 3: Summary by Section Market Information Urea - On May 22, urea futures warehouse receipts were 7573, up 25 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4] - On May 22, urea daily production was 20.46 tons, down 0.02 tons from the previous day and up 3.12 tons year - on - year. The operating rate was 88.96%, up 8.89 percentage points year - on - year [4] - As of May 22, domestic small - particle urea spot prices in various regions were mostly flat. For example, Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, Henan was 1890 yuan/ton [4] - As of May 21, domestic urea enterprise inventory was 91.74 tons, up 10.02 tons or 12.26% week - on - week [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On May 22, soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 147, down 2170 from the previous day, with 2711 valid forecasts; glass futures warehouse receipts were 3459, down 109 from the previous day [7] - On May 22, soda ash spot prices in various regions were flat. For example, North China's light soda ash was 1400 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton [7] - As of the week of May 22, soda ash production was 66.38 tons, down 1.39 tons or 2.04% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, down 1.64 percentage points week - on - week [7] - As of May 22, soda ash factory inventory was 167.68 tons, down 1.07 tons or 0.63% from Monday [8] - On May 22, the average price of the float glass market was 1240 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily production was 15.67 tons, unchanged day - on - day [8] - As of May 22, the inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 6776.9 million weight cases, down 31.3 million weight cases or 0.46% week - on - week, up 13.67% year - on - year. The inventory days were 30.6 days, down 0.4 days from last week [8] Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those related to the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, and price spreads of urea and soda ash, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the futures price spreads of urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [11][12][17] Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different aspects of resource - related research and have won various industry honors [25]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力09合约收盘价1855元/吨，微幅上涨0.22%。现货 | 震荡 | | | 市场局部继续弱势下调，价格下调的区域降幅多在10~20元/吨，其余地区价格基本 | | | | 维稳。目前山东临沂地区市场价格1880元/吨，河南地区市场价格1890元/吨，二者 | | | | 日环比均下降10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应高位波动，日产量昨日小幅提升0.3 | | | | 万吨至20.48万吨。需求端稳步跟进，中下游在低价环境中存在逢低采购情况，现货 | | | | 产销率昨日多数回升至100%附近，个别地区仍有分化。后期北方麦收结束后农业用 | | | | 肥仍有跟进预期，等待需求验证的同时关注干旱天气对作物播种及施肥的影响。出 | | | | 口细节持续公布，后续或仍将对市场产生情绪扰动。整体来看，尿素现货价格上方 | | | | 天花板限制明显，短期市场若无新增驱动，期货盘面将延续宽幅震荡趋势。关注 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4]. Core Insights - The IEA and EIA have raised their oil demand forecasts, with the IEA projecting an increase of 100,000 barrels per day in emerging markets for 2026, while OECD countries are expected to see a decline in demand [1][2]. - OPEC+ production has decreased, with a total output of 40.916 million barrels per day in April, down by 106,000 barrels per day from the previous month [2]. - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose challenges to energy security, prompting major Chinese oil companies to increase capital expenditures for upstream operations [3]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The IEA has adjusted its 2025 global oil demand forecast upward by 10,000 barrels per day to 74 million barrels per day, driven primarily by emerging economies [1]. - The EIA's short-term energy outlook predicts a 1.38 million barrels per day increase in global oil demand for 2025, up by 30,000 barrels per day from last month [1]. - OPEC has maintained its 2025 oil demand forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC+ countries' production growth has been revised down by 100,000 barrels per day [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, highlight the importance of energy security [3]. - China's major oil companies plan significant capital expenditures for 2025, with China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC planning to spend 210 billion, 76.7 billion, and 130 billion yuan respectively [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]. - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, recommending companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4] Core Views - The IEA and EIA have raised their oil demand forecasts, with emerging markets expected to drive significant growth in oil demand in 2025, increasing by 860,000 barrels per day [1] - Despite economic slowdowns, emerging economies are projected to be the main contributors to oil demand growth, while OECD countries are expected to see a decline in demand [1] - OPEC+ production has decreased, and the execution of their production increase plans is under scrutiny, with potential impacts from geopolitical uncertainties [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of energy security amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with major Chinese oil companies planning significant capital expenditures for upstream operations [3] Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The IEA's May report adjusted the global oil demand forecast for 2025 upwards by 100,000 barrels per day to 74 million barrels per day, emphasizing the role of emerging markets [1] - The EIA also revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous month [1] - OPEC's April production fell to 40.916 million barrels per day, a decrease of 106,000 barrels per day from the previous month, influenced by declines in Iran, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan [2] Geopolitical and Energy Security - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, pose challenges to energy security, prompting major Chinese oil companies to respond with increased capital expenditures [3] - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and their associated service firms [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil sector, including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3] - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's 2024 revenue decreased by 1.4% to 338.375 billion yuan, with net profit down 1.7% to 58.671 billion yuan, indicating a challenging financial environment due to falling coal prices and rising production costs [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, a significant decline of 21.1%, and a net profit of 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [1] - The weighted average return on equity for 2024 was 14.04%, a decrease of 0.84 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Coal Division - Coal production in 2024 reached 327 million tons, an increase of 0.8%, while sales volume rose by 2.1% to 459 million tons [1] - The average selling price of coal (excluding tax) was 564 yuan/ton, down 3.4% year-on-year, with production costs rising by 1.45% to 180.439 billion yuan [1] - The coal division's revenue for 2024 was 268.618 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7%, with total profit down 7.1% to 54.365 billion yuan [1] Power Generation Division - In 2024, the power generation segment showed resilience with a sales volume of 210.28 billion kWh, up 5.3%, although the average selling price fell by 2.7% to 403 yuan/MWh [2] - The total profit for the power generation division increased by 2.0% year-on-year [2] Transportation and Coal Chemical Divisions - The transportation segment saw a stable growth with a turnover of 312.1 billion ton-km, up 0.9%, while revenue reached 43.115 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% [3] - The coal chemical division's revenue was 5.633 billion yuan, down 7.6%, with a gross margin of 5.8%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to deepen coal-electricity integration and expand new projects, with significant investments in coal production and power generation projects [5] - The company is expected to maintain high cash dividends, with a proposed dividend of 2.26 yuan per share, totaling 44.903 billion yuan, representing 76.5% of net profit [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 54.117 billion, 55.637 billion, and 55.035 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.72, 2.80, and 2.77 yuan [6]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of CNY 4.131 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.89% [8] - The total profit was CNY -380 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.02% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY -380 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.84% [8] - Operating costs amounted to CNY 3.996 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.78% [8] - The total period expenses reached CNY 320 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.58% [8] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 26.87% in 2024 [3] - The company reported a 70% year-on-year decline in net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 [3] - Financial expenses increased by 38% year-on-year, with interest expenses exceeding 200% of net profit [9] Government Subsidies and Profit Dependency - Government subsidies accounted for over 150% of net profit in 2024, totaling CNY 2.605 million [3] - The company does not rely on non-recurring gains for profitability and aims to enhance self-sustaining profit capabilities [3] Management and Operational Efficiency - The management expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, with management expenses rising by 10.32% [3] - The sales expense ratio rose by 1.7 percentage points to 6.5%, while sales expenses decreased by 20.07% [5] - Accounts receivable turnover days increased by 35 days, with overdue accounts receivable over 90 days rising to 18% [6] Market Conditions and Industry Outlook - The chemical industry faced significant pressure due to weak demand and intensified competition, leading to a decline in product prices [10] - The company maintains a competitive advantage compared to peers despite the challenging market environment [10] - The future of the coal chemical industry is expected to focus on clean energy and high-end chemical products, aligning with national policies [12] Debt and Financing - Short-term borrowings increased by 55%, while long-term borrowings decreased by 30% [20] - The company emphasizes maintaining a reasonable funding structure and managing cash flow safety [20]