021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 1 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | | | | | | 表1：7月31日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1676.5 | 16 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress in China's energy sector in the first half of the year, showcasing a robust increase in renewable energy generation, improved energy security, and the acceleration of green energy consumption initiatives [1][2][3] Group 1: Energy Supply and Production - Renewable energy generation reached nearly 1.8 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for almost 40% of the total national power generation [1] - The production of raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas increased by 5.4%, 1.3%, and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Daily average industrial power generation increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with the maximum national power load reaching a historical high of 1.508 billion kilowatts [1] Group 2: Power Generation Capacity - Over 200 million kilowatts of new power generation capacity was added in the first half of the year, including 30 million kilowatts from renewable sources [2] - Renewable energy generation accounted for nearly 40% of total power generation, surpassing the combined electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residents [2] - By the end of June, the total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 2.159 billion kilowatts, representing 59.2% of the total installed capacity [2] Group 3: Green Certificate Market - A total of 348 million green certificates were traded in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 118% [3] - The average price of green certificates rose to 5 yuan per certificate, with June's average reaching 6.5 yuan, a 4.4-fold increase from the lowest price this year [3] - The establishment of a unified national electricity market has progressed, with new mechanisms for cross-regional electricity trading and the launch of continuous settlement trials in the southern region [3]

Core Viewpoint - The reliability of electricity supply remains stable despite extreme weather events, with the National Energy Administration actively monitoring and managing the situation to ensure safety and reliability [1][2][3] Group 1: Electricity Supply Reliability - The National Energy Administration reported that the overall electricity supply in the country has remained stable in the first half of the year, with effective measures taken to mitigate the impact of extreme weather on the power system [1] - The average electricity reliability rate nationwide was 99.948%, with a reduction in average outage time and frequency for users [3] Group 2: Generation and Transmission Performance - In terms of generation, the equivalent availability factor for coal-fired units was 92.12%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the average utilization hours decreased by 166.29 hours to 1961.31 hours [2] - The equivalent availability factor for conventional hydropower units was 92.93%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points, with average utilization hours down by 7.84 hours to 1631.61 hours [2] - The transmission and transformation systems showed improvements, with the availability factor for 220 kV and above transformers at 99.6%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points, and the energy availability rate for DC transmission systems at 97.09%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights that on July 31, several listed companies received target price upgrades from brokerages, with notable increases for Ningde Times, Su Shi Testing, and Yonghui Supermarket, showing target price increases of 66.28%, 48.13%, and 47.99% respectively [1][3] - Ningde Times received a "Buy" rating from Dongwu Securities with a target price of 440.00 yuan, indicating a significant potential upside [3] - Su Shi Testing was rated "Strong Buy" by Huachuang Securities with a target price of 24.22 yuan, reflecting a robust growth outlook [3] Group 2 - A total of 26 listed companies were recommended by brokerages on July 31, with Hisense Home Appliances receiving the most recommendations at four, followed by Su Shi Testing with three, and Yonghui Supermarket with two [4][5] - Hisense Home Appliances closed at 25.69 yuan and was recommended by four brokerages, indicating strong market interest in the white goods sector [5] - The article also mentions that Hunan Haili received its first coverage with a "Buy" rating from Great Wall Securities, indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural chemical products industry [7]

Core Insights - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of ensuring stable electricity supply during peak summer demand, highlighting the need for scientific scheduling and emergency preparedness [1][2] Group 1: Electricity Supply Management - The provincial government is focusing on the critical phase of electricity supply during the ongoing high-temperature weather, which has led to increased electricity demand [2] - There is a call for enhanced monitoring of the power grid and data analysis to better understand supply and demand dynamics [2] - The government aims to maximize electricity generation and ensure that all available power is supplied, while minimizing unplanned outages and operational disruptions [2] Group 2: Risk Management and Infrastructure - The government stresses the importance of comprehensive risk assessment and management across all aspects of electricity supply, including generation, transmission, and storage [2] - There is a focus on preparing emergency repair equipment and teams to respond to extreme weather events [2] - The need for a long-term strategy is highlighted, with plans to integrate renewable energy sources and improve electricity transmission infrastructure [2] Group 3: Demand-Side Management - The government advocates for demand-side management strategies, prioritizing demand response and orderly electricity usage to ensure efficiency [2] - Market-based approaches are encouraged to guide users in shifting their electricity consumption patterns [2] - There is an emphasis on promoting energy conservation to enhance the overall efficiency of electricity resource utilization [2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the long-term narrative of a bull market, mid-term visibility of fundamental turning points, and a short-term strategy of "looking long while acting short" [2][11] - The "anti-involution" strategy is distinct from supply-side reforms, requiring a shift in focus for investment opportunities [2][10] - The report draws parallels with the supply-side reform period of 2016-2017 to project the potential outcomes of the "anti-involution" market [2][13] Group 2 - Guo'en Co., Ltd. plans to establish a 1,000-ton PEEK full industry chain platform and a 300,000-ton modified and composite materials project, aiming to create a rare integrated production line for PEEK [3][18] - The company is set to enhance its competitive edge by leveraging high-value transformation and expanding its market presence through an upcoming Hong Kong IPO [3][22] - The report forecasts a steady increase in the company's net profit from 706 million yuan in 2025 to 1.068 billion yuan in 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][22] Group 3 - Figma's listing on the US stock market marks a significant step in the commercialization of AI design, with its core product being a cloud-based collaborative interface design tool [2][17] - The company achieved an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of over 100 million USD, indicating strong market demand and growth potential [2][17] - Figma's AI capabilities are not limited to creative generation but extend to enhancing the entire design workflow, appealing to a broad customer base [2][17] Group 4 - The report highlights the performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, noting that the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" portfolio has outperformed major indices since its inception [3][23] - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive to identifying new structural opportunities, particularly in technology and midstream manufacturing sectors [3][23] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with industrial trend catalysts and those benefiting from supply-demand improvements [3][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, achieving operating revenue of 36.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.984 billion yuan, up 14.22% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [2][6]. - The company has approved a proposal to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the construction of the Gezhouba shipping expansion project, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support the company's long-term growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 36.587 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.984 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.22% growth compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The performance was supported by favorable water inflow conditions, with the Wudongde reservoir's inflow increasing by 9.01% and the Three Gorges reservoir's inflow rising by 8.39% year-on-year [12]. Project Development - The board approved the investment in the Gezhouba shipping expansion project, which aims to enhance navigation capacity and support the company's high-quality development [12]. - The project involves the construction of new locks and the expansion of navigation channels, with a total construction period of 91 months [12]. Dividend and Valuation - The company maintains a long-term commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70%, positioning itself as a strong dividend stock [12]. - The expected dividend yield compared to the ten-year government bond yield has reached the 98.60th percentile for 2023, indicating a favorable investment value [12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.38 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.46 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.24, 19.22, and 19.06 [12].

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the potential growth of bond ETFs, suggesting that despite the inherent advantages of actively managed bond funds, there is room for ETFs to leverage their product strengths. It highlights the significant improvement in liquidity for credit bonds through ETFs and suggests expanding the range of tracked indices [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in the management scale of domestic index bond funds, particularly credit bond index ETFs and equity-linked ETFs, as the equity market recovers [1][16]. Macro Commentary - The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, signaling a hawkish stance as inflation targets remain distant compared to employment goals. This may delay rate cuts until Q4 2025, with expectations for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 4.05% and 4.5% respectively [2][17]. - The second quarter GDP growth in the U.S. was reported at +3.0%, reversing the previous quarter's -0.5% and exceeding market expectations. However, the core GDP indicator, PDFP, only grew by +1.2%, indicating that the growth was largely driven by inventory adjustments rather than strong internal economic growth [3][19]. Fixed Income Analysis - The report notes that the issuance of secondary capital bonds totaled 109.9 billion yuan, with a trading volume of approximately 288.1 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in market activity [7]. - Green bond issuance reached 35.9 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 61 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in sustainable finance [7]. Company-Specific Insights - Su Shi Testing (300416) reported a 26% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2, driven by strong growth in the integrated circuit sector. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 280 million, 350 million, and 430 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) slightly exceeded profit expectations, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 66.1 billion, 80.2 billion, and 96.6 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its leading position in the global battery market [11]. - Yonghui Supermarket (601933) plans to raise 4 billion yuan through a private placement to support store renovations, with adjusted profit forecasts reflecting a potential recovery in performance [13]. - Huaneng International (600011) reported a 24.3% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, benefiting from a 9.2% decrease in coal costs. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 13.78 billion, 16.02 billion, and 17.53 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [14].

近1.8万亿千瓦时，可再生能源发电量接近全国总发电量的四成；3.48亿个，绿证交易规模实现翻倍…… 7月31日，国家能源局举行新闻发布会，公布能源发展"半年成绩单"。"上半年，全国能源供应充足，供 需总体宽松，能源结构持续优化，新型能源体系建设加快推进，助力我国经济持续回升向好。"国家能 源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾说。 绿色低碳转型加速推进。继3月底全国风电、太阳能发电装机历史性超过火电后，5月底非化石能源发电 装机容量占比首次突破六成。上半年，风电、太阳能发电新增装机规模较去年同期翻一番。截至6月 底，全国可再生能源装机达到21.59亿千瓦，约占发电总装机的59.2%。其中，水电装机4.4亿千瓦，风 电装机5.73亿千瓦，太阳能发电装机11亿千瓦，生物质发电装机0.47亿千瓦。 随着绿色电力消费理念深入人心，绿证市场活力不断激发。上半年，全国共计交易绿证3.48亿个，同比 增长1.18倍。4月份以来，随着绿证市场建设提速，特别是国际可再生能源电力自愿消费倡议组织 （RE100）全面认可中国绿证，推动绿证需求快速增长，绿证价格稳步回升，上半年均价5元/个，6月 份均价达到6.5元/个，较今年最低价增长4.4倍 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，广东建润晟综合能源有限公司成立，法定代表人为鲁强，注册资本2000万人民 币，由深圳万润综合能源集团有限公司全资持股。 序号股东名称持股比例1深圳万润综合能源集团有限公司100% 经营范围含一般经营项目是：合同能源管理；节能管理服务；储能技术服务；太阳能发电技术服务；热 力生产和供应；光伏设备及元器件销售；光伏发电设备租赁；风力发电技术服务；新兴能源技术研发； 电池销售；电动汽车充电基础设施运营；充电桩销售；集中式快速充电站；机动车充电销售；新能源汽 车换电设施销售；新能源原动设备销售；太阳能热发电装备销售；太阳能热利用装备销售；太阳能热利 用产品销售；在线能源计量技术研发；在线能源监测技术研发；余热余压余气利用技术研发；供冷服 务；余热发电关键技术研发；人工智能行业应用系统集成服务。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执 照依法自主开展经营活动），许可经营项目是：供暖服务。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后 方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准） 企业名称广东建润晟综合能源有限公司法定代表人鲁强注册资本2000万人民币国标行业电力、热力、燃 气及水生产和供应 ...