%% %% research.95579.com 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 碳中和系列："十五五"碳达峰决胜期，政策深化 下的投资机遇 %% %% 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在"双碳"战略的顶层设计与全国碳市场逐步深化的共同驱动下，中国经济的绿色转型已从理念 倡导进入实质性攻坚阶段。我们认为，这一波澜壮阔的转型进程将系统性地催生多层次、长周 期的产业投资机遇；其核心逻辑并非局限于单一赛道，而是围绕"能源系统重塑、工业绿色溢价、 降碳技术放量与配套服务崛起"四大维度展开的立体化投资图谱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 魏凯 赵超 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BUT911 SAC ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both Utilities and Environmental sectors [8]. Core Insights - The carbon pricing market is undergoing a value reconstruction driven by both policy and market forces, with carbon prices expected to stabilize at 150-200 RMB/ton by 2030 [3][7]. - The green certificate market is currently underperforming, with prices at only 8% of the carbon price, indicating significant potential for value release [5][7]. - The upward pressure on electricity prices is anticipated from both carbon costs and green certificate revenues, with wholesale electricity prices projected to increase by 10% to 385 RMB/MWh [6]. Summary by Sections Carbon Price Trends - Carbon prices peaked at 98 RMB/ton by the end of 2024 but fell to a low of 38 RMB/ton in 2025 due to declining energy prices and increased renewable energy capacity [4]. - As of January 2026, carbon prices have stabilized at an average of 73 RMB/ton, supported by compliance demand from the power sector and the expansion of carbon markets in heavy industries [4]. Green Certificate Market - The average price of green certificates was 4.2 RMB per certificate in 2025 and increased to 5.5 RMB in 2026, still significantly lower than carbon prices [5]. - The low price of green certificates is attributed to the incomplete integration with the carbon market and insufficient market demand for green electricity [5]. Electricity Price Dynamics - Current carbon and green certificate prices are expected to push wholesale electricity prices from 350 RMB/MWh to 385 RMB/MWh, with further increases anticipated if carbon prices rise to 150-200 RMB/ton [6]. - If green certificate prices align with carbon prices, wholesale electricity prices could increase by 24-31% [6]. Future Outlook - The carbon market is expected to transition from "soft constraints" to "hard constraints" by 2027, with a gradual tightening of quotas and an increase in the proportion of paid allowances [7]. - Policies are being established to link the environmental value of green certificates with carbon reduction values, which may enhance the economic viability of green electricity [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power companies. Recommendations include major thermal power companies such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [4][20]. - Continuous government policies supporting the development of renewable energy are anticipated to lead to stable profitability in renewable power generation. Recommended companies include Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind power companies [4][20]. - The report notes that the growth in installed capacity and power generation will offset the downward pressure on electricity prices, with nuclear power companies expected to maintain stable profitability. Recommended companies include China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the defensive attributes of hydropower stocks in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending Jiangsu Yangtze Power as a stable and growth-oriented hydropower leader [4][20]. - The environmental sector is entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow. The report suggests focusing on "utility-like investment opportunities" in the environmental sector, recommending companies such as China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings [21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.57%, while the public utility index increased by 0.06% and the environmental index by 0.27%. The relative returns for public utilities and environmental sectors were 0.63% and 0.84%, respectively [13][22]. Important Events - Shanxi Province initiated a bidding process for the 2026 incremental renewable energy project mechanism, with a total bidding scale of 9.576 billion kWh, including 3.527 billion kWh from wind power and 6.049 billion kWh from solar power. The bidding price range is set between 0.2 and 0.32 yuan/kWh [2][14]. Special Research - The report outlines that over 26 cities in China have raised water prices in 2025, with adjustments primarily between 10% and 30%. The report emphasizes the necessity of price adjustments due to rising costs faced by water supply companies [3][17][19]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends various companies across different sectors, including thermal power, renewable energy, nuclear power, hydropower, and environmental services, based on their expected performance and market conditions [4][20][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shaanxi has been actively implementing carbon quota compliance as a key measure to promote the construction of the national carbon market, achieving significant milestones since the market's launch in 2021 [1][2] - The total carbon quota trading volume reached 45.21 million tons, with a transaction value of 3.121 billion yuan [1] - In 2024, the focus will be on ensuring 100% compliance for key emission units, with a projected carbon quota trading volume of 985,000 tons and a transaction value of 581 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Shaanxi is continuously improving its institutional framework to standardize carbon emission trading and data quality management, including the establishment of a carbon emission data audit room [2] - The monthly audit pass rate for carbon emission data has increased to 89.6%, indicating a significant improvement in data quality across the province [2] - The province has successfully implemented five carbon quota collateralized loans totaling 34.62 million yuan, enhancing financing channels for key emission units and encouraging energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives [2]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has achieved stable operation and is seen as a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a green economic transition [1][7] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances is expected to reach 865 million tons, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [1] - The market has shown significant growth, with a 24% year-on-year increase in trading volume in 2025, reaching 235 million tons and a transaction value of 14.63 billion yuan [2] Market Expansion - In 2025, 3,378 key emission units will be included in the national carbon market, covering industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting [2] - The average trading price for carbon allowances in 2025 was 62.36 yuan per ton, with a year-end closing price of 74.63 yuan per ton [2] - The Shanghai carbon market has successfully included over 400 enterprises and more than 1,800 investment institutions across 28 industries, being the first to include the aviation sector and the only one to include the shipping sector [2] System Innovation and Optimization - China's new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets aim for a 7% to 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 from peak levels, providing a roadmap for the next decade [4] - The release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition" marks a significant step in advancing the carbon market, indicating a phase of deepening and accelerating development [4] - Experts suggest establishing a comprehensive quota allocation scheme aligned with national carbon reduction goals to enhance the carbon market's effectiveness [5] International Cooperation - A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Beijing Green Exchange and the Singapore Metaverse Green Exchange to facilitate cross-border carbon credit technology integration [6] - China's carbon market is recognized internationally for its effective design and innovation, contributing to global carbon reduction efforts and providing valuable experience for emerging economies [7] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively exploring cross-border carbon trading and aims to establish management systems for such transactions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has become a key policy tool for controlling greenhouse gas emissions and promoting a comprehensive green transition in the economy and society, showing steady growth and increasing market vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market reached 865 million tons, with a total transaction value exceeding 57.663 billion yuan [1]. - In 2025, the trading volume of carbon allowances reached 235 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.63 billion yuan [2]. - The average trading price for the year was 62.36 yuan per ton, with the year-end closing price rising to 74.63 yuan per ton [2]. Group 2: Industry Coverage and Development - By 2025, 3,378 key emission units will be included in the national carbon market, expanding coverage from the initial power generation sector to critical industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum smelting [2]. - Shanghai's carbon market has included over 400 enterprises across 28 industries and has been a pioneer in incorporating the aviation and water transport sectors [4]. Group 3: Policy and Future Directions - 2025 is a crucial year for accelerating the construction of the carbon market system, with new national contributions (NDC) targets set to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035 [4]. - The release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks the beginning of a new phase for the national carbon market [4]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Influence - The international influence of China's carbon market is growing, with a memorandum of understanding signed between the Beijing Green Exchange and the Singapore Metaverse Green Exchange for cross-border carbon credit technology integration [5]. - International experts have praised China's carbon market achievements, noting its contribution to both domestic green transition and global carbon market development [5]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The dual growth in trading volume and value, along with the expansion of industry coverage, indicates an enhanced market function in guiding prices and resource allocation, with increasing awareness of carbon asset management among enterprises [6]. - The transition of China's carbon market from a domestic reduction tool to an internationally influential asset pricing center is underway, with potential future developments including carbon futures and alignment with international standards [6].

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has achieved stable operation and is seen as a crucial tool for addressing climate change and promoting a green economic transition [1][7] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances is expected to reach 865 million tons, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [1] - The market has shown significant growth, with a 24% year-on-year increase in trading volume in 2025, reaching 235 million tons and a transaction value of 14.63 billion yuan [2] Market Expansion - In 2025, 3,378 key emission units will be included in the national carbon market, covering industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting [2] - The average trading price for carbon allowances in 2025 was 62.36 yuan per ton, with a year-end closing price of 74.63 yuan per ton [2] - The Shanghai carbon market has successfully included over 400 enterprises and more than 1,800 investment institutions across 28 industries, being the first to include the aviation sector and the only one to include the shipping sector [2] System Innovation and Optimization - China's new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets aim for a 7% to 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 from peak levels, providing a roadmap for the next decade [4] - The release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition" marks a significant step in advancing the carbon market, indicating a phase of deepening and accelerating development [4] - Experts suggest that a comprehensive allocation scheme for industry quotas should be established to align with national carbon reduction goals [5] International Cooperation - A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Beijing Green Exchange and the Singapore Metaverse Green Exchange to facilitate cross-border carbon credit technology integration [6] - China's carbon market is recognized internationally for its effective design and innovation, contributing to reduced carbon intensity in electricity production and serving as a model for emerging economies [7] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively exploring cross-border carbon trading and aims to establish management systems for such transactions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the carbon market expansion and its impact on the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting sectors [30][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of the allocation plan for carbon emission rights in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking a significant step towards substantial carbon market expansion [1][11]. - The allocation plan emphasizes a stable transition with increased carryover allowances and a narrowed deviation range for carbon emission intensity, which is expected to enhance long-term emission reduction incentives while maintaining market stability [2][17]. - The carbon market is entering a new phase of systematic expansion and institutional deepening, with expectations for broader coverage and more precise regulation in the future [3][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the allocation plan for carbon emissions in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, which is a concrete implementation of earlier expansion policies [11][12]. - The plan focuses on direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes, excluding indirect emissions from electricity and heat consumption [12][13]. 2. Policy Impact - The continuity of the policy is strong, with a clear emphasis on using market mechanisms to control greenhouse gas emissions and promote green transformation in industries [21][22]. - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to follow a principle of gradual inclusion, with new industries being added as they mature [23][24]. - Near the end of the year, carbon prices are showing signs of support, although the impact of the new allocation plan on carbon prices is expected to be limited [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released, which are expected to boost carbon prices, and carbon prices are likely to recover at an accelerated pace. The potential buyer demand in the market may increase by over 100 million tons in the remaining month of this year, and the actual procurement demand of the three industries is estimated to be around 30 million tons [5]. - MEG is in a weak mid - term trend, with short allocation recommended, and the monthly spread maintains a reverse arbitrage. The supply is expected to return in the future, and there is a pattern of supply - demand surplus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [6][7]. - The repair market of treasury bond futures has reached its limit. The subsequent market is expected to show a steeper curve and a bearish trend with fluctuations. The probability of scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) is relatively high [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Carbon Market - The 2024 and 2025 national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released. In 2024, the free - allocated quotas equal the quotas to be cleared, and the basic carry - over volume is increased from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. In 2025, the overall balance of the three industries is maintained, and the adjustment coefficient of the carbon emission intensity coefficient is expanded from 10% to 15% [5]. MEG - The load of the synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit has decreased from 80% to below 70% in the previous two weeks, but some device overhauls have ended, and new devices are put into production. The monthly import is expected to exceed 600,000 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the polyester load declines in December, resulting in a supply - demand surplus [6][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market had a repair market due to weak economic data and a decline in global risk appetite. Currently, it is difficult to stimulate the long - end price to continue rising. The bond market curve is expected to become steeper, and the market trend is bearish. There are two scenarios in the future, with scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) having a higher probability [8][9]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are under pressure due to increased internal and external inventories; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead prices are restricted from falling due to reduced inventories; tin prices are falling from a high level; aluminum shows a slight stabilization, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; nickel prices break through the support level and are under pressure to oscillate, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality but have limited downward space [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Carbonate lithium may have a short - term correction; industrial silicon may see production cuts to support prices in the future, and polysilicon is in a weak and volatile pattern; iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese experience a weakening market sentiment and supplementary price drops; coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation; logs are in a volatile and repeated state [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking process in the producing areas; soybean oil is oscillating strongly; soybean meal and soybeans are in an adjustment and oscillation; corn is oscillating; sugar is in a range - bound arrangement; cotton prices are still suppressed by the pressure of new cotton listing; eggs show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; live pigs' price increase expectation due to cooling fails, and the pressure is gradually released; peanuts require attention to the spot market [12][15].