加强标准规则衔接，夯实碳市场建设的技术基础。数据是碳市场运行的基础，如果各部门数据采集标准 各异，不仅将影响配额分配与交易效率，也将成为制度衔接的突出障碍。建议构建全国统一的碳排放核 算、监测、报告与核查（MRV）体系，整合来自不同部门的碳排放数据、经济数据、消费数据等，制 定统一的碳排放核算指南与数据接口规范，实现数据实时比对与交叉验证。特别是在新一轮NDC目标 下，加强与国际标准对接，提升数据可比性与互认度，对增强我国碳市场的公信力至关重要。可引入区 块链、物联网等技术实现数据实时采集与防篡改，并明确企业、核查机构、交易所的数据报送义务与质 量责任。同时，应强制披露重点行业碳排放强度、配额清缴情况等信息，并建立数据纠偏机制，对异常 值进行跨部门联合核查。此举将提升数据权威性与协同效率，为配额分配、金融衍生品创新及跨市场联 动提供支撑。 加强配额分配衔接，增强碳市场运行的经济激励。配额分配是碳市场核心环节，其与宏观经济政策、行 业政策的衔接直接影响减排成本与市场公平。当前以免费分配为主的方式难以充分反映行业差异与减排 潜力，且与电力、钢铁等行业政策协调不足。可逐步提高有偿分配比例，通过经济手段强化政策协同。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国碳市场：市场扩容，创新产品激发市场活力 碳市场系列研究报告之四 证券分析师： 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 陆灏川 A0230520080001 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.10.22 核心结论 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 碳市场建设：已进入扩容发展期。2025年3月20日，生态环境部发布《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、 水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方案》，提出将钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业纳入全国碳市场。2025年5月24日发布的 《关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》，提出四项具体措施加强碳市场建设。 ◼ 全国碳市场：1）交易规模：截至2025年10月20日，累计成交量7.42亿吨，成交额504.61亿元；2）交易 特点：临近年度履约期，放量交易；3）交易方式：以大宗交易为主；4）碳配额分配：以免费碳配额为主； 4）碳价：2025年碳价有所下跌；6）成效：2023年度配额清缴完成，排放强度大幅下降。 ◼ 试点碳市场：1）控排企业数量：广东省最多；2）碳价：除天津外，其他试点碳价均有所下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting green transformation, with significant growth in trading volume and market participation since its inception four years ago [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon market has achieved a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating a rise in market activity and participant engagement [3]. - The number of trading accounts opened by newly included key emission units reached 1,277 by the end of August 2025, expanding the market's participant base [2]. Industry Inclusion and Impact - The carbon market has expanded to include four major industries: power generation, steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials, enhancing market diversity and trading opportunities [2][3]. - The structural changes in market participants have led to increased trading opportunities due to varying judgments on market transactions among different enterprises [2]. Local Market Role - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue supporting local "dual carbon" goals and green development, even as they face challenges from the national market's expansion [6]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises and numerous investment and financial institutions, contributing to its trading volume and activity [5]. Future Directions - The carbon market is set to transition towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on policy coordination and the establishment of a total control mechanism for carbon emissions [11]. - Shanghai plans to further diversify its market participants and explore innovative environmental rights, including water rights and pollution rights trading, to enhance market functionality [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become the largest in the world, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, with significant growth in trading volume and market participation observed in 2023 [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume in 2023 has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating a rise in market activity and participant engagement [4]. - The number of key emission units that have opened trading accounts has reached 1,277, contributing to a more diverse market structure [2][3]. Market Structure and Participants - The expansion of the carbon market to include industries such as steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials has diversified the market, enhancing the richness and variety of market participants [3]. - The quality of market participants has improved, with many companies establishing dedicated carbon asset management departments, leading to a more proactive approach to carbon management [4]. Local Market Dynamics - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue playing a crucial role in supporting local carbon reduction goals and green development, despite a reduction in quota coverage due to the national market's expansion [5][7]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 key emission enterprises, which contributes to its high trading activity [6]. Future Directions - The carbon market is set to transition towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on policy coordination between industrial and carbon market policies [10]. - Plans are in place to include all major industrial emission sectors in the carbon market by 2027, with ongoing research into paid allocation mechanisms to enhance market efficiency [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become the largest in the world, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, and is evolving towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][10]. Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume in the carbon market has increased significantly, with a 40% growth compared to the same period last year, and trading activity has improved with a 75% increase in transaction volume, number of trading enterprises, and transaction counts in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][3]. Market Structure and Participants - The inclusion of new key emission units has expanded the market's participant base to 1,277 entities, enhancing market diversity and creating more trading opportunities [2]. - The market now covers four major industries: power generation, steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials, which has diversified the market structure and improved trading dynamics [2]. Local Market Role - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue supporting local "dual carbon" goals and green development, even as they face challenges from the national market's expansion [4][6]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises and 1,800 investment and financial institutions, contributing to high trading activity [5]. Future Directions - The Shanghai Environmental Energy Exchange is focusing on expanding industry coverage, researching paid allocation mechanisms, and promoting market participant diversification [8][9]. - The transition to a "paid allocation + total control" model is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an emphasis on policy coordination between industrial and carbon market policies [10].

Core Insights - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a new phase in the development of China's carbon market, emphasizing its role as a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and facilitating a comprehensive green transition in economic and social development [1][5]. Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has completed three compliance cycles, with a cumulative trading volume of 680 million tons and a transaction value of 47.41 billion RMB as of August 22, 2025, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1]. - The carbon market will expand to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries starting in 2024, increasing the number of covered enterprises to approximately 3,600 and the annual carbon dioxide emissions covered to 800 million tons, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2]. Group 2: Compliance and Emission Reduction - Power generation companies have shown a strong commitment to compliance, achieving a compliance rate of 99.98% in the third compliance cycle, reflecting a significant improvement in their awareness and management of carbon emissions [3][4]. - The carbon emissions per unit of electricity generated in the power sector have decreased by 12.1% from 2018 to 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of the carbon market in promoting emission reductions [4]. Group 3: Transition in Carbon Allocation Mechanism - The shift from intensity-based control to total emissions control, along with the introduction of a mixed allocation method of free and paid carbon quotas, is expected to enhance the market's regulatory power and better reflect the actual costs of emissions for enterprises [5][6]. - This new allocation mechanism is anticipated to create a scarcity value for carbon quotas, encouraging companies to transition from passive compliance to proactive emission reduction strategies [7]. Group 4: Financial Mechanisms and Market Liquidity - The development of carbon finance is highlighted as a key mechanism for supporting green and low-carbon projects, with the potential to reduce economic risks for compliance enterprises and enhance the carbon price formation mechanism [11]. - The carbon market's turnover rate is projected to increase from 2.0% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, driven by policy adjustments such as the reduction of compliance cycles and the introduction of quota rollover mechanisms [12]. Group 5: Future Opportunities and Challenges - The tightening of quota benchmarks and rising carbon prices may increase compliance costs for power generation companies, leading to potential market imbalances and heightened financial risks [8]. - Companies are advised to adopt diversified carbon asset development strategies, including participation in green electricity and carbon credit projects, to mitigate risks and enhance long-term profitability [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's carbon market is experiencing significant growth, with the annual transaction value of carbon emission allowances reaching 18.114 billion yuan in 2024, marking a new high since the market's launch in 2021 [1] - The carbon market serves as a crucial tool for incentivizing low-carbon economic growth by increasing the costs of carbon-intensive goods and services, thereby encouraging a shift towards low-carbon alternatives [1] - The World Bank's report indicates that nearly two-thirds of the global economy has implemented carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, highlighting the global trend towards carbon pricing [1] Group 2 - China's carbon market is still in its early stages, having launched the national carbon emissions trading market in 2021 and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market in 2024 [1] - The carbon market is expected to accelerate its development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with key factors such as management changes and effective price signaling influencing long-term investment decisions by companies [1] - The expansion and allocation of carbon allowances are critical components in the growth of the carbon market [1] Group 3 - The national carbon market has recently expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which together account for over 60% of the country's total carbon dioxide emissions [3] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is also working on a plan to include the aviation industry in the national carbon market, indicating a broader scope for carbon trading [3] - The central government's guidelines aim for the carbon market to cover major industrial sectors by 2027, accelerating the decarbonization process for industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, and paper [3] Group 4 - The guidelines propose a shift from intensity-based control of carbon allowances to total quantity control, prioritizing stable industries for total quantity control by 2027 [3] - This approach will involve determining the total emissions for an industry first, followed by the allocation of allowances to individual companies, with an annual reduction in total emissions to enhance the scarcity of carbon allowances [3] - The anticipated decrease in total emissions is expected to signal rising carbon prices in the market, influencing corporate expectations and behaviors [3]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Carbon Market Conference emphasized the importance of a stable carbon pricing mechanism to drive green and low-carbon development [2] - The national carbon market, launched in July 2021, has expanded to include key industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, covering approximately 80 billion tons of CO2 emissions, which is about 60% of the national total [2][6] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The carbon market is a widely accepted tool for carbon reduction, with 38 countries and regions having established their own markets [2] - The national carbon market has registered around 3,700 key emission units, covering approximately 80 billion tons of CO2 emissions [2][6] - The market has implemented measures like carbon quota prepayment and guidance to address supply-demand mismatches, ensuring stable operation [5] Group 2: Industry Impact and Technological Innovation - The carbon market has led to significant improvements in energy efficiency and cost reductions for companies, as seen in a case where a power company reduced its carbon compliance costs by approximately 10 million yuan after technological upgrades [3][6] - The carbon price is becoming a new pricing tool that reflects the costs and benefits of emissions reduction, encouraging companies to invest in technological upgrades [3][6] - The introduction of carbon trading has allowed companies to profit from surplus carbon quotas, promoting a market-driven approach to emissions reduction [5][6] Group 3: Policy and Future Directions - Recent policies aim to enhance market vitality by encouraging financial institutions to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions [5] - The proposal to combine free and paid carbon quota distribution aims to provide a feasible path for industries like cement to overcome competitive pressures [7] - The ongoing development of the national carbon market is expected to help companies break free from competitive pressures and foster new competitive advantages through green transformation [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Province is actively implementing the "Beautiful Hubei" strategy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on ecological protection and sustainable development, with significant improvements in environmental quality and a robust carbon market [1][2]. Group 1: Ecological Protection and Environmental Quality - Hubei has prioritized ecological protection, implementing the "Double Ten Actions" and "Ten-Year Fishing Ban," leading to enhanced biodiversity and stability in the Yangtze River ecosystem [3]. - The province has achieved a 99.8% completion rate in the remediation of 12,462 pollution outlets into the Yangtze River, maintaining Class II water quality for six consecutive years [3][4]. - PM2.5 concentration has decreased by 15.6% compared to pre-2019 levels, and the proportion of days with good air quality has increased by 7.7 percentage points [4]. Group 2: Carbon Market Development - Hubei has established itself as a key base for the national carbon market, with a cumulative transaction volume of 4.18 billion tons and a transaction value exceeding 10.3 billion yuan, ranking first in the country [5]. - The province's carbon market has completed two compliance cycles, with a total transaction volume of 6.93 billion tons and a transaction value of 47.63 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Economic Development - Yichang, as a model for ecological protection and economic development, has achieved a GDP exceeding 600 billion yuan, focusing on high-level protection of the Yangtze River [6]. - Significant investments have been made in wastewater treatment and solid waste management, improving the sewage collection rate from 43.34% to 81.95% over five years [6][7]. Group 4: Community Engagement and Volunteerism - Hubei has over 20,000 environmental protection volunteer organizations and more than 1,800 university teams participating in ecological conservation efforts [5].

Carbon Neutrality Policy - The first central document for the national carbon market was issued, outlining a long-term development roadmap and tasks for the market [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will focus on expanding the coverage of mandatory carbon markets, enhancing market vitality, and improving management levels [2][3] - The national carbon market has achieved significant results, with a cumulative trading volume of 669 million tons and a transaction value of 45.93 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [3] Energy Development Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the share of renewable energy in total electricity consumption is expected to reach 60%, with every third kilowatt-hour being green electricity [4][6] - The non-fossil energy share in national energy consumption is projected to exceed the 20% target set for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with coal's share decreasing by 1 percentage point annually [5][6] Local Dynamics - Shaanxi Province has introduced a plan to support private enterprises in signing long-term green electricity purchase agreements, aiming to reduce energy costs and simplify electricity access processes [7] - The plan includes measures to encourage private enterprises to participate in electricity market transactions, particularly in industries like steel and chemicals [7] Corporate Practices - Sinopec is participating in the construction of the world's largest green hydrogen/ammonia complex in Saudi Arabia, which will utilize wind and solar power for production [8] - The project is expected to produce 400,000 tons of green hydrogen and 2.8 million tons of green ammonia annually, contributing to the global energy transition [8]