2、专访生态环境部气候司司长夏应显：中国碳市场迈新阶，坚定参与全球气候治理 碳中和周报关注"双碳"领域的最新前沿动态，包括碳中和政策、地方动态、企业实践等。我们将通过精 选每周碳中和领域的重大事件，并进行点评的方式，提供一个及时全面的碳中和信息平台。 一、碳中和政策 1、全国碳市场迎首份中央文件，生态环境部划三大重点 8月26日，生态环境部召开8月例行新闻发布会，生态环境部新闻发言人裴晓菲表示："近日，中共中央 办公厅、国务院办公厅印发的《关于推进绿色低碳转型 加强全国碳市场建设的意见》，这是我国碳市 场领域第一份中央文件，明确了全国碳市场中长期发展的时间表、路线图、任务书。 在上述例会上，裴晓菲表示，经过四年多的发展，全国碳市场建设实现了起步稳、运行稳，取得了较为 显著的成效。接下来，生态环境部将从以下三个方面抓好文件落实。第一，深入推进全国碳市场建设， 有序扩大强制碳市场的覆盖行业范围。第二，着力提升碳市场活力，建立碳质押、碳回购等政策制度， 提升节能减碳积极性和主动性。第三，提高管理水平，严格规范碳排放核查，压实重点排放单位主体责 任，加强数据质量全过程监管。 21碳中和课题组快评：中办、国办发文为全国 ...

Core Insights - The carbon market in China is increasingly important as a key policy tool in achieving the dual carbon goals, with significant developments over the past 20 years [1] - The national carbon market has established a stable institutional framework, with a cumulative trading volume of nearly 700 million tons and a trading value of approximately 48 billion yuan as of the end of August [1][2] - The market is undergoing a critical transformation with the inclusion of additional high-emission industries and the introduction of innovative trading mechanisms [2][4] Group 1: Market Development - The national carbon market officially started trading on July 16, 2021, and has since shown a steady increase in compliance rates, maintaining above 99% over the last three compliance cycles [1] - The market has implemented three main mechanisms to promote emissions reduction: imposing pressure on high-emission enterprises through carbon quotas, quantifying emission reduction benefits for trading, and establishing carbon pricing to guide investments into green sectors [2][3] Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2027, the national carbon market aims to cover all major industrial sectors and transition from intensity control to total control, with a gradual increase in paid allocation [4] - The voluntary carbon market (CCER) is expected to face high-quality project requirements and will need to enhance trading volume, as current supply is significantly lower than theoretical demand [3][5] - To enhance market vitality, the introduction of diverse carbon financial products and the expansion of trading participants, including financial institutions and individuals, is essential [5]

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）注意到，推进重点行业产能治理；规范地方招商引资行 为；增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性；企业家要勇立潮头，以优质产品和服务赢得市场竞争主动等 表述是首次出现在中共中央政治局会议中。 从主要目标看，2015年为化解过剩产能，此次为推进重点行业产能治理。7月1日，中央财经委员会第六 次会议召开，明确"推动落后产能有序退出"。落后并非过剩，且强调依法依规治理企业无序竞争。 经济学家、新质未来研究院院长张奥平在接受每经记者微信采访时表示，此次提出的推进重点行业产能 治理，与2015年供给侧结构性改革去产能相比，在目标、范围、手段上都有所区别。 关于增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，北京师范大学教授、一带一路学院研究员万喆则表示，吸引 力的核心在于持续创造价值。资本市场的吸引力与包容性并不矛盾，二者可以形成正向循环。 此外，知名经济学者、工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林表示，会议提出企业家要勇立潮头， 以优质产品和服务赢得市场竞争主动，这一提法的实质含义是引导企业之间良性竞争，避免内卷式竞争 和恶性竞争。 ...

参观者在"模拟交易系统"前排起小长队，他们化身"碳资产管理员"，操作买卖碳配额， 身临其境的体验让市民更清晰地理解了碳交易的市场机制。通过零距离接触和沉浸式互动， 国家"双碳"战略的宏大目标融入了市民的认知与行动。 近日，中碳登举办"碳索未来，绿动你我"开放日文明实践活动，来自武汉社区、学校、 环保组织及企业的百名市民代表走进中碳登大厦，近距离感受碳市场的发展活力。 "第一次走进中碳登，感觉很新奇！"武昌区水果湖街道机安社区的刘女士兴奋签名，开 启"碳索"之旅。在三楼展厅，武昌区的青少年低碳环保宣讲员化身"导游"。"讲得真清楚， 让我马上明白了国际碳市场的情况和我国建立碳市场的必要性。"带孩子前来的张先生频频 赞许。 展厅内生动的模型和图文展示了全国碳市场如何运用市场化机制引导企业减排，以及作 为"碳资产大脑"和"碳交易枢纽"的中碳登如何护航全球最大碳市场的平稳运行。碳市场四周 年成就展的数据图表令人振奋。"覆盖这么多行业了！""累计成交额这么高！"市民们驻足惊 叹，湖北省的突出贡献和企业取得的实际减排成效让参观者倍感兴奋。 讲解员还介绍武汉市探索创新的碳普惠机制，将市民日常的绿色出行、垃圾分类、节能 节水等 ...

Group 1 - The carbon market is experiencing a short-term price decline due to macroeconomic factors, but market activity and transaction volume are increasing, indicating robust development. Long-term expectations suggest tightening carbon emission quotas from 2026, pushing companies towards green energy and energy-saving technologies [2] - The electricity market reform is driven by the surge in renewable energy installations, leading to increased pressure on grid peak regulation. The reform aims for full market-based pricing for renewable energy, which may create revenue uncertainties and has led to a drop in demand since June [3] - Domestic polysilicon production remains stable at 90,000 to 100,000 tons per month, with annual capacity exceeding 3 million tons. However, high inventory levels and unstable profit expectations from photovoltaic power generation have resulted in weakened demand [4] Group 2 - Industrial silicon prices have unexpectedly dropped below 7,000 yuan per ton, below the optimal cost line for leading companies. Despite losses, production remains stable due to employment and loan pressures, with monthly production at 300,000 tons [5] - The lithium carbonate market is facing increasing oversupply, with projected supply of 1.6 million tons and demand of 1.3 million tons by 2025, leading to a surplus of 200,000 tons. Prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term [6] - The aluminum alloy futures market has low participation and limited delivery sources, with a focus on cost factors such as scrap aluminum prices and industrial silicon [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the continuous deepening of China's green finance system, with local pilot projects accelerating, market scale steadily expanding, and innovative products emerging, providing strong financial support for the "dual carbon" goals [1]. Group 1: Policy Dynamics - In the first five months of 2025, numerous green finance policies were introduced, with central and local efforts working in tandem to accelerate the formation of a multi-level green finance system [2]. - Shanghai has established a "1+N+X" green finance organizational structure, while Jiangsu has launched a "1+N+N" transformation financial support directory targeting eight high-carbon industries [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission released a new version of the "Green Technology Promotion Directory," covering 112 low-carbon technologies [2]. - China successfully issued 6 billion yuan in green sovereign bonds on the London Stock Exchange, indicating strong international market recognition of Chinese green assets [2]. Group 2: Market Data - In the first five months of 2025, China's green finance market maintained high activity levels, with 236 new green bonds issued, totaling 411.03 billion yuan [3]. - The balance of green loans reached 40.61 trillion yuan by the end of March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.2% [3]. - The national carbon market saw a trading volume of 22.74 million tons and a transaction value of 1.751 billion yuan from January to May [4]. Group 3: Innovation and Product Diversification - In May 2025, several innovative green finance products were launched, including the first "green + rural revitalization + dual basin" labeled bond [5]. - Agricultural Development Bank introduced the "twin green bond" mechanism, exploring market comparisons between green and ordinary bonds [5]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank launched a multi-currency carbon-neutral offshore bond, focusing on clean transportation and renewable energy projects [5]. Group 4: Outlook - Green finance is becoming a key engine for high-quality economic development, with expectations for further advancements in climate investment and financing trials, unified ESG standards, and continuous industrialization of green technologies [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report tracks marginal changes in the carbon market since 2025, indicating a 60% expansion progress in the carbon market, with expectations for quota prices to rebound in the second half of the year [2][4] - The issuance of green certificates (绿证) is expected to achieve full coverage by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year increase in trading volume of 3.64 times, indicating an upward price trend [2][5] - The market activity of CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) is anticipated to continue expanding due to methodological expansion [2][7] - The dual carbon strategy is accelerating, with sectors such as waste incineration, carbon monitoring, CCUS, hydrogen energy, electric sanitation vehicles, and recycling resources expected to benefit [2][8] Summary by Sections Quotas - After the compliance period, quota prices have declined, with a current market expansion progress of 60%. The price dropped from over 100 yuan per ton at the end of last year to 68.46 yuan per ton by May 30, 2025, primarily due to weak demand during the non-compliance period [4][22] - The carbon market's coverage of carbon dioxide emissions is expected to increase from about 40% to over 60% with the inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries [4][24] Green Certificates - The issuance of green certificates has accelerated since mid-2024, with a completion rate of 95% for centralized renewable energy projects by the end of 2024. A total of 4.677 billion green certificates were issued, with wind, conventional hydropower, solar power, and biomass power accounting for 40.77%, 33.73%, 17.18%, and 8.15% respectively [5][29] - The trading volume of green certificates in 2024 increased by 3.64 times year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector consuming nearly 70% of the total [5][35] CCER - Since October 2023, the progress of CCER has accelerated, with the release of new methodologies and the establishment of a basic institutional framework for voluntary emission reduction trading [7][45] - The price of CCER is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend as more industries are included in the carbon quota management [49] Investment Strategy - The dual carbon strategy is advancing rapidly, with the carbon market construction accelerating. The report highlights potential investment opportunities in waste incineration, carbon monitoring, CCUS, hydrogen energy, electric sanitation vehicles, and recycling resources [8][52] - Companies such as Huanlan Environment, Guangda Environment, and Weiming Environment are expected to benefit from the green certificate replacing national subsidies, improving cash flow [52][53]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 20 日 全国碳市场：发电行业配额预分配在即，关注 市场活跃度 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting@gtht.com 2、新纳入行业 2024 年度履约不设配额缺口，全国碳市场缺口略有下调，但对供需平衡影响有限；扩 围方案带来短期情绪利空，或加速强制流通配额释放，综合价格短期支撑位 76 元/吨附近。 3、关注 2024 年度配额预分配期限前后（4 月 20 日）的成交活跃度；强制流通配额耗尽节点延后， 强势上涨动能或出现在 25Q2 及以后。 ◼ 推荐策略 建议缺口企业在 76 至 80 元/吨区间分批逢低采购。 报告导读： ◼ 本周价格走势：CEA 加速下跌，CCER 成交清淡 本周，全国碳市场综合价格加速下跌，收盘价 80.38 元/吨，周环比-5.79%，年同比-13.21%。分年 份看，碳配额 23 环比上周下跌 4.53%，碳配额 22 补跌超 9%。全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场最新单日 成交均价 101.22 元/吨，周环比+7.8%。 全国碳市场周度总成交量约 150 万吨，环比上周增长 319%，发电行业配额预分 ...