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会议纪要 | 不确定性中的确定性机会—CFC年中策略会新能源&金属篇
对冲研投· 2025-06-27 12:46
欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 江露 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 在当今百年未有之大变局下,全球产业竞争加剧,地缘政治扰动频繁,国内经济转型面临挑战。2025年6月24日,中信建投期货在上海浦东新 区香格里拉酒店举办年中策略会,探讨在冲突与危机背后,期货全品种的潜在交易机会。 主要议题 以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ,作者江露 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件,进行专业的解读和评论,分享专业的价值观点,提出专业的投资策略,力争为普通投资者、产业人士 打造专业的投资交流平台,并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 王彦青:近处低谷,远景光明 一、碳市场发展与趋势 当前受宏观经济下行影响,碳价呈现短期下跌趋势,但市场活跃度和成交量仍在提升,表明市场本身在蓬勃发展。国内碳排放配额目前 较为宽松,企业减排紧迫感不强。然而从长远看,预计从2026年起碳排放配额将逐步收紧,迫使企业转向绿色能源和节能减排技术。 长期碳价上涨的方向是明确的,政策将推动其上行。国际上,欧盟持续推进碳政策,而美国受政治因素影响存在不确定性,特朗普上台 可能弱化碳政策。未来欧盟碳关税的实施 ...
华夏银行广州分行:以数字金融解绿色发展,创产数融资新范式
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-06-26 13:44
在数字经济浪潮席卷全球的当下,数字金融已成为推动实体经济高质量发展的核心引擎。2025年3月5 日,国务院办公厅印发的《关于做好金融"五篇大文章"的指导意见》进一步指出,到2027年,金融机构 数字化转型要取得积极进展,数字化金融监管能力要有效提升,强调要推动数字金融高质量发展,巩固 拓展数字经济优势。 值得关注的是,该行参展的《国内首个试点碳市场数字金融创新》项目凭借"数字技术+碳资产"的突破 性融合,成功入围2024年"点数成金"数字金融评选名单并获评"数字金融十佳案例"。 从"数翼通"到碳市场金融创新 华夏银行的产业数字金融方法论 这一创新成果并非偶然,而是华夏银行广州分行以"数翼通"品牌为战略抓手,深耕"金融五篇大文章"融 合发展的必然结果。 面对数字经济的蓬勃发展,华夏银行紧跟时代步伐,积极探索和实践产业数字金融的新模式,面向全市 场推出"数翼通"品牌及系列产品,致力于通过数字化转型赋能实体经济,以产业数字金融新模式助力"五 篇大文章",为产业升级提供强有力的金融支持。华夏银行广州分行立足湾区,以总行"数翼通"品牌产品 为导向,不断深化产业数字金融业务创新实践。 为推动广东碳交易试点持续深化发展,释 ...
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第94期)-20250613
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 13:00
全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第94期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-06-13 秒底需求增加,CEA强势反弹 今日 1、CEA:CEA23、24重回70元上方;挂牌1.5万吨,大宗42.0万吨 行情 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量0.11万吨,成交均价89.32元/吨(2.34%) 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 大宗协议成交量 42.00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 3004. 64 0. 00 0. 00 88. 75 0.00 图表3:CEA大宗成交均价(元/吨) 图表2:CEA收盘价(元/吨) 元/吨 -- 碳配额19-20 --- 碳配额21 -- 碳配额22 元/吨 -- 碳配额19-20 -- 碳配额21 -- 碳配额22 120 120 碳配额24 碳配额23 碳配额24 碳配额23 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 2023-07 2024-07 2022-07 2021-07 2024-07 ...
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第93期)-20250612
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 09:50
(1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2CEA价格跌至70元附近后,抄底需求有所显现,但目前强制流通配额释放不足,潜在 抛压仍存、市场价格震荡磨底,仍缺乏上行驱动;考虑到核查节点,6月中下旬成交量 有望攀升,预计6月底部区间62~66元/吨。 3若盈余企业卖出节点继续后移,价格底部或越低,反弹高度越有限;若单日成交量 能够明显起量,强劲上涨动能或出现在三季度末。 风险 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第93期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-06-12 CEA缩量反弹,参与者挺价意愿较强 今日 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废:2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现;3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 ...
厚植绿色发展底色 解码威海银行“双碳”目标下的金融实践
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-06-11 02:23
在国家"双碳"战略的驱动下,威海银行将绿色金融作为服务实体经济重要抓手,构建起涵盖绿色技术研 发、场景应用、产业转型等全周期服务矩阵,通过优化信贷资源配置、创新金融工具应用,精准对接区 域特色化绿色发展需求,持续为区域经济绿色转型注入金融活水,在绿水青山与金山银山之间架起畅通 的金融桥梁。 在威海,一农业发展公司受行业结算模式影响,面临着严峻的资金压力:上游客户要求现款结算导致采 购资金支出集中,而下游客户回款周期长达6个月,造成现金流持续紧张。同时,企业可用抵押资产有 限,传统融资渠道受阻,发展受到制约。针对这一困境,威海银行通过深入调研,与企业充分沟通后, 创新授信方案,成功发放950万元绿色贷款,专项用于苗木培育与采购。该方案不仅缓解了企业的短期 资金压力,还支持其构建"育林—固碳—增收"的循环发展模式,在解决融资难题的同时强化了生态效 益,实现了经济效益与环境效益的双赢。 同期,威海银行重点支持聊城某塑胶科技公司的3亿元绿色项目贷款也成功落地。该企业贷款资金主要 用于9.36万吨氯化聚乙烯和20万吨聚合氯化铝生产,聚合氯化铝作为高效净水剂,较传统产品节省30% 用量及40%成本,投产后将推动我国水处理 ...
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第91期)-20250610
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 12:13
全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第91期) 国泰君安斯员 发布日期:2025-06-10 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废:2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现;3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量2.00万吨,成交均价88.00元/吨(1.64%) 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2CEA价格跌至70元附近后,抄底需求有所显现,但目前强制流通配额释放不足,潜在 抛压仍存、市场价格震荡磨底,仍缺乏上行驱动;考虑到核查节点,6月中下旬成交量 有望攀升,预计6月底部区间62~66元/吨。 3若盈余企业卖出节点继续后移,价格底部或越低,反弹高度越有限;若单日成交量 能够明显起量,强劲上涨动能或出现在三季度末。 风险 单日成交量再次突破100万吨,CEA价格弱稳运行 今日 1、CEA: CEA23、24走势分化:挂牌2.7万吨,大宗99.0万吨 行情 | ...
40万亿+,创纪录!
和讯· 2025-06-09 10:40
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the continuous deepening of China's green finance system, with local pilot projects accelerating, market scale steadily expanding, and innovative products emerging, providing strong financial support for the "dual carbon" goals [1]. Group 1: Policy Dynamics - In the first five months of 2025, numerous green finance policies were introduced, with central and local efforts working in tandem to accelerate the formation of a multi-level green finance system [2]. - Shanghai has established a "1+N+X" green finance organizational structure, while Jiangsu has launched a "1+N+N" transformation financial support directory targeting eight high-carbon industries [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission released a new version of the "Green Technology Promotion Directory," covering 112 low-carbon technologies [2]. - China successfully issued 6 billion yuan in green sovereign bonds on the London Stock Exchange, indicating strong international market recognition of Chinese green assets [2]. Group 2: Market Data - In the first five months of 2025, China's green finance market maintained high activity levels, with 236 new green bonds issued, totaling 411.03 billion yuan [3]. - The balance of green loans reached 40.61 trillion yuan by the end of March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.2% [3]. - The national carbon market saw a trading volume of 22.74 million tons and a transaction value of 1.751 billion yuan from January to May [4]. Group 3: Innovation and Product Diversification - In May 2025, several innovative green finance products were launched, including the first "green + rural revitalization + dual basin" labeled bond [5]. - Agricultural Development Bank introduced the "twin green bond" mechanism, exploring market comparisons between green and ordinary bonds [5]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank launched a multi-currency carbon-neutral offshore bond, focusing on clean transportation and renewable energy projects [5]. Group 4: Outlook - Green finance is becoming a key engine for high-quality economic development, with expectations for further advancements in climate investment and financing trials, unified ESG standards, and continuous industrialization of green technologies [6][7].
江苏银行:全“绿”以赴,让美好生生不息
Jiang Nan Shi Bao· 2025-06-08 16:13
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the commitment of Jiangsu Bank to sustainable development and green finance, highlighting its role as a leader in promoting green financial practices in alignment with national strategies for a harmonious relationship between humans and nature [1][10]. Group 1: Strategic Development - Jiangsu Bank has integrated green finance into its core business strategy since 2013, collaborating with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to launch energy efficiency loan projects [2]. - The bank established a dedicated green finance department in 2015 and adopted the Equator Principles in 2017, becoming the first city commercial bank in China to do so [2]. - In 2023, Jiangsu Bank set up a leadership group for green finance to implement national policies and released a three-year work plan for green finance development [3]. Group 2: Product and Service Offerings - Jiangsu Bank has developed a comprehensive green finance product system covering nine sectors, including corporate credit, investment banking, and retail banking [4]. - The bank has introduced innovative products such as "green innovation combination loans" and "contract energy management loans" to support the renewable energy sector [4]. - Jiangsu Bank has also launched transformation finance services, including "ESG performance-linked loans" and "carbon account-linked loans," to assist enterprises in their transition to low-carbon operations [5]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - Jiangsu Bank actively collaborates with government agencies and other financial institutions to create a green finance ecosystem, establishing partnerships with various departments to enhance green finance initiatives [7]. - The bank has taken a leading role in setting industry standards for green finance, participating in the development of multiple national and local green finance standards [7][8]. - Jiangsu Bank has engaged in international cooperation, joining the UK-China Green Finance Workgroup and adopting the United Nations' Principles for Responsible Banking (PRB) [8][9]. Group 4: Future Commitments - Jiangsu Bank aims to deepen its green finance innovations and optimize resource allocation to contribute significantly to the vision of a beautiful China, aligning with the "Two Mountains" theory [10].
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第89期)-20250606
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 11:45
全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第89期) 国泰君交期货 发布日期:2025-06-06 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 67.00 | 67. 50 | 67. 00 | 69. 26 | 68.76 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0. 00% | 0.00% | 0. 36% | 0.98% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | 0. 50 | -0. 50 | 2. 26 | -0. 50 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 68. 45 | | 总成交量(万吨) | 0.00 | 0. 00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 121.94 | | 挂牌协议成交 ...
江苏银行:全“绿”以赴,让美好生生不息 ——金融之力呵护美丽中国,谱写绿色金融大文章
Zhong Jin Zai Xian· 2025-06-05 01:49
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the commitment of Jiangsu Bank to green finance and sustainable development, highlighting its role as a leader in promoting a harmonious relationship between humans and nature in China [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Development - Jiangsu Bank has integrated green finance into its strategic planning since 2013, collaborating with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) on energy efficiency projects [2]. - The bank established a dedicated green finance department in 2015 and adopted the Equator Principles in 2017, becoming the first city commercial bank in China to do so [2]. - In 2023, Jiangsu Bank set up a leadership group for green finance to implement national policies and released a three-year work plan for green finance development [3]. Group 2: Product and Service Offerings - Jiangsu Bank has developed a comprehensive green finance product system covering nine sectors, including corporate credit, investment banking, and retail [4]. - The bank has introduced innovative products such as "green innovation combination loans" and "ESG performance-linked loans" to support various green projects [5]. - Jiangsu Bank's ecological finance services focus on environmental protection and urban green development, offering products like solid waste loans and soil restoration loans [5]. Group 3: Collaboration and Ecosystem Building - Jiangsu Bank actively collaborates with government agencies and other financial institutions to create a green finance ecosystem, enhancing its professional capabilities [7]. - The bank has established partnerships with various government departments and has been involved in setting industry standards for green finance [7][8]. - Jiangsu Bank promotes knowledge sharing and collaboration among banks through initiatives like the establishment of a green finance alliance for small and medium-sized banks [8]. Group 4: International Engagement - Jiangsu Bank has engaged in international cooperation, joining the UK-China Green Finance Working Group and becoming a signatory to the UN Principles for Responsible Banking (PRB) [8][9]. - The bank has taken leadership roles in international forums, contributing to the development of new standards for sustainable finance [9][10]. - Jiangsu Bank aims to align its operations with global best practices in sustainable finance while addressing local market needs [8].