Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the carbon market expansion and its impact on the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting sectors [30][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of the allocation plan for carbon emission rights in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking a significant step towards substantial carbon market expansion [1][11]. - The allocation plan emphasizes a stable transition with increased carryover allowances and a narrowed deviation range for carbon emission intensity, which is expected to enhance long-term emission reduction incentives while maintaining market stability [2][17]. - The carbon market is entering a new phase of systematic expansion and institutional deepening, with expectations for broader coverage and more precise regulation in the future [3][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the allocation plan for carbon emissions in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, which is a concrete implementation of earlier expansion policies [11][12]. - The plan focuses on direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes, excluding indirect emissions from electricity and heat consumption [12][13]. 2. Policy Impact - The continuity of the policy is strong, with a clear emphasis on using market mechanisms to control greenhouse gas emissions and promote green transformation in industries [21][22]. - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to follow a principle of gradual inclusion, with new industries being added as they mature [23][24]. - Near the end of the year, carbon prices are showing signs of support, although the impact of the new allocation plan on carbon prices is expected to be limited [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released, which are expected to boost carbon prices, and carbon prices are likely to recover at an accelerated pace. The potential buyer demand in the market may increase by over 100 million tons in the remaining month of this year, and the actual procurement demand of the three industries is estimated to be around 30 million tons [5]. - MEG is in a weak mid - term trend, with short allocation recommended, and the monthly spread maintains a reverse arbitrage. The supply is expected to return in the future, and there is a pattern of supply - demand surplus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [6][7]. - The repair market of treasury bond futures has reached its limit. The subsequent market is expected to show a steeper curve and a bearish trend with fluctuations. The probability of scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) is relatively high [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Carbon Market - The 2024 and 2025 national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released. In 2024, the free - allocated quotas equal the quotas to be cleared, and the basic carry - over volume is increased from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. In 2025, the overall balance of the three industries is maintained, and the adjustment coefficient of the carbon emission intensity coefficient is expanded from 10% to 15% [5]. MEG - The load of the synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit has decreased from 80% to below 70% in the previous two weeks, but some device overhauls have ended, and new devices are put into production. The monthly import is expected to exceed 600,000 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the polyester load declines in December, resulting in a supply - demand surplus [6][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market had a repair market due to weak economic data and a decline in global risk appetite. Currently, it is difficult to stimulate the long - end price to continue rising. The bond market curve is expected to become steeper, and the market trend is bearish. There are two scenarios in the future, with scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) having a higher probability [8][9]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are under pressure due to increased internal and external inventories; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead prices are restricted from falling due to reduced inventories; tin prices are falling from a high level; aluminum shows a slight stabilization, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; nickel prices break through the support level and are under pressure to oscillate, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality but have limited downward space [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Carbonate lithium may have a short - term correction; industrial silicon may see production cuts to support prices in the future, and polysilicon is in a weak and volatile pattern; iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese experience a weakening market sentiment and supplementary price drops; coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation; logs are in a volatile and repeated state [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking process in the producing areas; soybean oil is oscillating strongly; soybean meal and soybeans are in an adjustment and oscillation; corn is oscillating; sugar is in a range - bound arrangement; cotton prices are still suppressed by the pressure of new cotton listing; eggs show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; live pigs' price increase expectation due to cooling fails, and the pressure is gradually released; peanuts require attention to the spot market [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the importance of enhancing the national carbon market to achieve China's new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets, emphasizing the need for systematic integration and improved regulatory frameworks to facilitate effective carbon market operations [1]. Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Framework - Strengthening legal frameworks is essential for establishing a solid foundation for the carbon market, with recommendations to expedite the introduction of the Carbon Emission Trading Management Regulations to clarify its relationship with existing environmental laws [2]. - The current regulations are deemed insufficient to meet the comprehensive emission reduction requirements set by the new NDC targets, necessitating a higher legal standing and clearer applicability [2]. Group 2: Technical Standards and Data Integration - A unified carbon emission accounting, monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system is recommended to enhance data consistency across departments, which is crucial for efficient quota allocation and trading [3]. - The integration of advanced technologies like blockchain and IoT is suggested to ensure real-time data collection and integrity, alongside mandatory disclosure of carbon emission intensities for key industries [3]. Group 3: Quota Distribution and Economic Incentives - The document advocates for a gradual increase in the proportion of paid quota distribution to better reflect industry differences and reduce emissions costs, linking quota allocation to national emission reduction goals [4]. - Establishing a mechanism for quota reserves and borrowing is proposed to mitigate market price volatility and enhance coordination with monetary policy tools [4]. Group 4: Policy Tool Integration - The integration of energy and financial policies is crucial for unlocking the carbon market's potential, with suggestions to align carbon costs with electricity pricing and promote the development of carbon-related financial products [5][6]. - The establishment of a unified carbon asset evaluation method and regulatory framework is emphasized to facilitate the financialization of carbon assets [6]. Group 5: Ecological Compensation and Market Value - The document highlights the need for synergy between carbon markets and ecological compensation mechanisms to enhance the monetization of carbon sink values [7]. - Proposals include allowing emissions units to offset quotas through verified carbon sink projects and linking local ecological compensation funds with carbon market revenues [7]. Group 6: Cross-Regional and Cross-Market Coordination - Strengthening cross-regional coordination is essential to eliminate market fragmentation, with recommendations for unified MRV standards and quota allocation methods across pilot and national markets [8][9]. - The establishment of a national market coordination mechanism is suggested to ensure policy alignment and effective resource allocation across different markets [9]. Group 7: International Linkages - The document stresses the importance of enhancing international connections in carbon markets to bolster global emission reduction efforts, with a focus on aligning with established markets like the EU [10]. - Initiatives to develop a regional carbon trading network and establish a framework for cross-border capital flow management are proposed to mitigate financial risks and enhance China's role in global carbon governance [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The carbon market construction has entered an expansion and development period. In March 2025, the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries were included in the national carbon market, and in May 2025, four specific measures were proposed to strengthen carbon market construction [3]. - As of October 20, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market was 742 million tons, with a turnover of 50.461 billion yuan. Trading volume increases near the annual compliance period, and bulk trading is the main method. Carbon price declined in 2025, and the 2023 - year quota settlement was completed with a significant drop in emission intensity [3]. - Among the pilot carbon markets, Guangdong has the most regulated enterprises and is the most active in terms of trading volume. Except for Tianjin, carbon prices in other pilot areas have declined [3]. - Pilot carbon markets have innovative mechanisms. Hubei established the first provincial "electricity - carbon - finance" linkage market; Beijing refined quota repurchase principles; Chongqing realized the "carbon market - carbon offset - carbon inclusive" linkage mechanism [3][4]. - The Guangzhou Carbon Exchange promotes low - carbon development in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. It has a policy framework of government guidance, market operation, and public participation, develops 5 carbon financial products, tightens the proportion of free carbon quotas, and promotes the construction of the Greater Bay Area carbon market [4]. - The "Qin Carbon Star" in the Hengqin - Macao Cooperation Zone is an innovative product that encourages individuals to participate in low - carbon activities through carbon credits [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Carbon Market Construction: Entered the Expansion and Development Period - **National Carbon Market Expansion and Policy Issuance**: Since 2024, a series of carbon footprint management policies have been issued, and the national carbon market has expanded to cover steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries. The government has set goals for the future expansion of the carbon market, aiming to basically cover major industrial emission industries by 2027 and build a complete carbon market by 2030 [6][7]. - **Revisions of Pilot Carbon Market Management Measures**: Starting from May 2024, relevant regulations required pilot areas to improve carbon market management systems. Each pilot area has successively formulated carbon emission and trading management measures [12][13]. - **Development Stages of the Carbon Market**: From 2011 - 2013, China launched carbon emission trading pilot projects; from 2014 - 2019, it established the overall framework of the national carbon market; since 2020, the national unified carbon market has been officially launched, and in March 2025, the market expanded for the first time [15]. 3.2 National + Pilot Carbon Markets: Guangdong is the Most Active - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: As of October 20, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market was 742 million tons, with a turnover of 50.461 billion yuan. Trading volume increases near the annual compliance period, and bulk trading is the main method [26]. - **Carbon Price**: In 2024, the carbon price rose, with an average of 91.82 yuan/ton. In 2025 (from January 1 to October 20), the carbon price declined, with an average of 76.73 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Achievements**: The 2023 - year quota settlement was completed, and the carbon emission intensity decreased significantly. The carbon market has achieved good emission reduction results [33]. - **Pilot Areas**: In 2024, Guangdong had the most regulated enterprises. Except for Tianjin, carbon prices in other pilot areas declined, and Guangdong was the most active in terms of trading volume [38][40]. 3.3 Carbon Market Innovation Mechanisms: Stimulate Market Vitality - **Hubei's "Electricity - Carbon - Finance" Linkage Market**: In May 2024, relevant parties in Hubei signed a coordinated agreement. The background was that the carbon emissions of regulated enterprises were calculated without deducting the green electricity part. This mechanism allows regulated enterprises to obtain low - interest loans to buy green electricity, reducing compliance costs [47][50]. - **Beijing's Refined Quota Repurchase Principles**: In 2024, Beijing issued relevant management measures to regulate market supply and demand through measures such as quota repurchase, aiming to address carbon price fluctuations and supply - demand imbalances [52][53]. - **Chongqing's "Carbon Market - Carbon Offset - Carbon Inclusive" Linkage Mechanism**: In 2024, Chongqing established the "Carbon - Friendly" voluntary emission reduction system and platform. By May 2025, it had attracted over 3.7 million participants, with more than 30 low - carbon application scenarios for residents and over 208 registered enterprise users [47][56]. 3.4 Guangzhou Carbon Exchange: Promote Low - Carbon Development in the Greater Bay Area - **Development History**: The Guangzhou Carbon Exchange has a long - standing development history, from the initial establishment to the launch of various platforms and business expansions [59]. - **Policy Framework**: It follows a policy framework of government guidance, market operation, and public participation, and has established a multi - industry quota trading system and innovative carbon financial tools [60]. - **Transaction Volume and Carbon Price**: The trading volume and carbon price in the Guangdong carbon market have been affected by factors such as the postponement of compliance time and the expansion of the national carbon market [67][71]. - **Carbon Financial Products**: The Guangzhou Carbon Exchange has developed 5 carbon financial products, with carbon quota repurchase having the highest trading volume and turnover [72][73]. - **Promotion of the Greater Bay Area Carbon Market**: The Guangzhou Carbon Exchange actively promotes the construction of the Greater Bay Area carbon market, conducts cooperation and exchanges with Hong Kong and Macao, and participates in relevant research projects [76][77]. - **Carbon Inclusive Mechanism**: The "Qin Carbon Star" in the Hengqin - Macao Cooperation Zone encourages individuals to participate in low - carbon activities through carbon credits and has attracted the participation of many low - carbon businesses [81][83].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting green transformation, with significant growth in trading volume and market participation since its inception four years ago [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon market has achieved a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating a rise in market activity and participant engagement [3]. - The number of trading accounts opened by newly included key emission units reached 1,277 by the end of August 2025, expanding the market's participant base [2]. Industry Inclusion and Impact - The carbon market has expanded to include four major industries: power generation, steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials, enhancing market diversity and trading opportunities [2][3]. - The structural changes in market participants have led to increased trading opportunities due to varying judgments on market transactions among different enterprises [2]. Local Market Role - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue supporting local "dual carbon" goals and green development, even as they face challenges from the national market's expansion [6]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises and numerous investment and financial institutions, contributing to its trading volume and activity [5]. Future Directions - The carbon market is set to transition towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on policy coordination and the establishment of a total control mechanism for carbon emissions [11]. - Shanghai plans to further diversify its market participants and explore innovative environmental rights, including water rights and pollution rights trading, to enhance market functionality [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become the largest in the world, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, with significant growth in trading volume and market participation observed in 2023 [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume in 2023 has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating a rise in market activity and participant engagement [4]. - The number of key emission units that have opened trading accounts has reached 1,277, contributing to a more diverse market structure [2][3]. Market Structure and Participants - The expansion of the carbon market to include industries such as steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials has diversified the market, enhancing the richness and variety of market participants [3]. - The quality of market participants has improved, with many companies establishing dedicated carbon asset management departments, leading to a more proactive approach to carbon management [4]. Local Market Dynamics - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue playing a crucial role in supporting local carbon reduction goals and green development, despite a reduction in quota coverage due to the national market's expansion [5][7]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 key emission enterprises, which contributes to its high trading activity [6]. Future Directions - The carbon market is set to transition towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on policy coordination between industrial and carbon market policies [10]. - Plans are in place to include all major industrial emission sectors in the carbon market by 2027, with ongoing research into paid allocation mechanisms to enhance market efficiency [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become the largest in the world, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, and is evolving towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][10]. Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume in the carbon market has increased significantly, with a 40% growth compared to the same period last year, and trading activity has improved with a 75% increase in transaction volume, number of trading enterprises, and transaction counts in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][3]. Market Structure and Participants - The inclusion of new key emission units has expanded the market's participant base to 1,277 entities, enhancing market diversity and creating more trading opportunities [2]. - The market now covers four major industries: power generation, steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials, which has diversified the market structure and improved trading dynamics [2]. Local Market Role - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue supporting local "dual carbon" goals and green development, even as they face challenges from the national market's expansion [4][6]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises and 1,800 investment and financial institutions, contributing to high trading activity [5]. Future Directions - The Shanghai Environmental Energy Exchange is focusing on expanding industry coverage, researching paid allocation mechanisms, and promoting market participant diversification [8][9]. - The transition to a "paid allocation + total control" model is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an emphasis on policy coordination between industrial and carbon market policies [10].

Core Insights - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a new phase in the development of China's carbon market, emphasizing its role as a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and facilitating a comprehensive green transition in economic and social development [1][5]. Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has completed three compliance cycles, with a cumulative trading volume of 680 million tons and a transaction value of 47.41 billion RMB as of August 22, 2025, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1]. - The carbon market will expand to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries starting in 2024, increasing the number of covered enterprises to approximately 3,600 and the annual carbon dioxide emissions covered to 800 million tons, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2]. Group 2: Compliance and Emission Reduction - Power generation companies have shown a strong commitment to compliance, achieving a compliance rate of 99.98% in the third compliance cycle, reflecting a significant improvement in their awareness and management of carbon emissions [3][4]. - The carbon emissions per unit of electricity generated in the power sector have decreased by 12.1% from 2018 to 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of the carbon market in promoting emission reductions [4]. Group 3: Transition in Carbon Allocation Mechanism - The shift from intensity-based control to total emissions control, along with the introduction of a mixed allocation method of free and paid carbon quotas, is expected to enhance the market's regulatory power and better reflect the actual costs of emissions for enterprises [5][6]. - This new allocation mechanism is anticipated to create a scarcity value for carbon quotas, encouraging companies to transition from passive compliance to proactive emission reduction strategies [7]. Group 4: Financial Mechanisms and Market Liquidity - The development of carbon finance is highlighted as a key mechanism for supporting green and low-carbon projects, with the potential to reduce economic risks for compliance enterprises and enhance the carbon price formation mechanism [11]. - The carbon market's turnover rate is projected to increase from 2.0% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, driven by policy adjustments such as the reduction of compliance cycles and the introduction of quota rollover mechanisms [12]. Group 5: Future Opportunities and Challenges - The tightening of quota benchmarks and rising carbon prices may increase compliance costs for power generation companies, leading to potential market imbalances and heightened financial risks [8]. - Companies are advised to adopt diversified carbon asset development strategies, including participation in green electricity and carbon credit projects, to mitigate risks and enhance long-term profitability [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's carbon market is experiencing significant growth, with the annual transaction value of carbon emission allowances reaching 18.114 billion yuan in 2024, marking a new high since the market's launch in 2021 [1] - The carbon market serves as a crucial tool for incentivizing low-carbon economic growth by increasing the costs of carbon-intensive goods and services, thereby encouraging a shift towards low-carbon alternatives [1] - The World Bank's report indicates that nearly two-thirds of the global economy has implemented carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, highlighting the global trend towards carbon pricing [1] Group 2 - China's carbon market is still in its early stages, having launched the national carbon emissions trading market in 2021 and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market in 2024 [1] - The carbon market is expected to accelerate its development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with key factors such as management changes and effective price signaling influencing long-term investment decisions by companies [1] - The expansion and allocation of carbon allowances are critical components in the growth of the carbon market [1] Group 3 - The national carbon market has recently expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which together account for over 60% of the country's total carbon dioxide emissions [3] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is also working on a plan to include the aviation industry in the national carbon market, indicating a broader scope for carbon trading [3] - The central government's guidelines aim for the carbon market to cover major industrial sectors by 2027, accelerating the decarbonization process for industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, and paper [3] Group 4 - The guidelines propose a shift from intensity-based control of carbon allowances to total quantity control, prioritizing stable industries for total quantity control by 2027 [3] - This approach will involve determining the total emissions for an industry first, followed by the allocation of allowances to individual companies, with an annual reduction in total emissions to enhance the scarcity of carbon allowances [3] - The anticipated decrease in total emissions is expected to signal rising carbon prices in the market, influencing corporate expectations and behaviors [3]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Carbon Market Conference emphasized the importance of a stable carbon pricing mechanism to drive green and low-carbon development [2] - The national carbon market, launched in July 2021, has expanded to include key industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, covering approximately 80 billion tons of CO2 emissions, which is about 60% of the national total [2][6] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The carbon market is a widely accepted tool for carbon reduction, with 38 countries and regions having established their own markets [2] - The national carbon market has registered around 3,700 key emission units, covering approximately 80 billion tons of CO2 emissions [2][6] - The market has implemented measures like carbon quota prepayment and guidance to address supply-demand mismatches, ensuring stable operation [5] Group 2: Industry Impact and Technological Innovation - The carbon market has led to significant improvements in energy efficiency and cost reductions for companies, as seen in a case where a power company reduced its carbon compliance costs by approximately 10 million yuan after technological upgrades [3][6] - The carbon price is becoming a new pricing tool that reflects the costs and benefits of emissions reduction, encouraging companies to invest in technological upgrades [3][6] - The introduction of carbon trading has allowed companies to profit from surplus carbon quotas, promoting a market-driven approach to emissions reduction [5][6] Group 3: Policy and Future Directions - Recent policies aim to enhance market vitality by encouraging financial institutions to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions [5] - The proposal to combine free and paid carbon quota distribution aims to provide a feasible path for industries like cement to overcome competitive pressures [7] - The ongoing development of the national carbon market is expected to help companies break free from competitive pressures and foster new competitive advantages through green transformation [7]