丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] "十五五"加码碳排放双控，电力何去何从？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月 20 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，会上再度重申了"双碳"目标，并提出全面实施 碳排放总量和强度双控，建立健全碳达峰碳中和综合评价考核、行业碳管控和产品碳足迹等制 度，完善激励约束政策。电力行业作为纳入碳市场的第一个行业，已经经历了多个履约周期， 在"十五五"碳排放双控加强的预期下，电力行业的碳排放控制也存在趋严的可能，对火电和 绿电将带来不同程度的影响。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 张子淳 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 火电减排压力下，优质个体获得交易回报 research.95579.com 1 公用事业 cjzqdt11111 根据中电联数据统计，2020 年以来全国单位火电发电量二氧化碳排放量呈现整体下滑的态 ...

欧盟正着手重新调整其全球最严格的碳市场规则，拟放宽对数以千计企业的减排要求。此举标志着该地 区在气候雄心与经济现实之间寻求新的平衡。 在下周欧盟领导人聚焦经济竞争力峰会前夕，有关改革排放交易体系（ETS）的讨论正迅速升温。据媒 体援引熟悉内情的欧盟政策制定者与外交官，距离上次为加速绿色转型而收紧该市场尚不足三年，各国 政府现已准备放慢减排步伐，并考虑推出一系列措施以缓解工业成本压力。 计划中的改革细节预计将由欧盟委员会于今年第三季度公布，其内容将直接影响碳配额供需，并可能在 成员国间引发激烈谈判。斯洛伐克总理罗伯特·菲佐已公开呼吁暂停ETS，捷克总理安德烈·巴比什则敦 促采取措施抑制碳价波动。市场对此已作出反应，周四欧盟碳期货价格下跌4.6%，跌至去年11月10日 以来的最低水平。 这一调整反映出欧盟在维持气候领导地位的同时，正试图为本土工业创造更具韧性的竞争环境。马德里 西班牙对外银行碳市场主管英戈·拉明对此评论称： "欧盟的叙事已经转变，从设定雄心勃勃的目标转向关注实施与执行，从理想主义转向务实 主义。" 政策优先级转变 随着欧盟重新评估与美国的长期伙伴关系，其雄心勃勃的绿色转型在政治议程上的优先级已经下 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the carbon neutrality sector, emphasizing the emergence of multi-layered and long-term investment opportunities driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and the deepening of the national carbon market [3][11]. Core Insights - The transition towards a green economy in China has moved from conceptual advocacy to a substantive phase, creating a systematic investment landscape centered around four dimensions: energy system restructuring, industrial green premium, carbon reduction technology expansion, and the rise of supporting services [3][11]. Summary by Sections Carbon Peak and Neutrality Policy Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" are critical periods for achieving carbon peak goals, with a comprehensive "1+N" policy system established to guide the transition [9][18]. - The energy consumption dual control is transitioning to carbon emission dual control, with a three-phase approach leading to comprehensive implementation by 2025 [9][22]. Market-Based Emission Reduction Mechanism - The carbon market's core mechanism is to guide carbon pricing through quotas, CCER, and green certificates [10][31]. - By the end of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the national carbon market is expected to reach 860 million tons, with a transaction value of 58.12 billion yuan and an average price of 67.6 yuan per ton [42][43]. Investment Strategy: Four-Dimensional Industrial Opportunities - The dual carbon process will create multi-layered, long-cycle investment opportunities across four dimensions: 1. **Energy System Restructuring**: Focus on new power systems, emphasizing photovoltaic and wind power technology advancements, and integrating non-electric applications like green hydrogen [11]. 2. **Industrial Green Premium**: The internalization of carbon costs is reshaping high-energy-consuming industries, providing cost advantages to companies with low-carbon processes [11]. 3. **Carbon Reduction Technology Breakthroughs**: Technologies in hard-to-abate sectors are entering a phase of scale, with significant demand for energy-saving equipment and recycling technologies [11]. 4. **Emergence of Carbon Management Services**: The assetization of carbon is driving demand for carbon monitoring, accounting platforms, and professional services to help companies manage risks and optimize assets [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both Utilities and Environmental sectors [8]. Core Insights - The carbon pricing market is undergoing a value reconstruction driven by both policy and market forces, with carbon prices expected to stabilize at 150-200 RMB/ton by 2030 [3][7]. - The green certificate market is currently underperforming, with prices at only 8% of the carbon price, indicating significant potential for value release [5][7]. - The upward pressure on electricity prices is anticipated from both carbon costs and green certificate revenues, with wholesale electricity prices projected to increase by 10% to 385 RMB/MWh [6]. Summary by Sections Carbon Price Trends - Carbon prices peaked at 98 RMB/ton by the end of 2024 but fell to a low of 38 RMB/ton in 2025 due to declining energy prices and increased renewable energy capacity [4]. - As of January 2026, carbon prices have stabilized at an average of 73 RMB/ton, supported by compliance demand from the power sector and the expansion of carbon markets in heavy industries [4]. Green Certificate Market - The average price of green certificates was 4.2 RMB per certificate in 2025 and increased to 5.5 RMB in 2026, still significantly lower than carbon prices [5]. - The low price of green certificates is attributed to the incomplete integration with the carbon market and insufficient market demand for green electricity [5]. Electricity Price Dynamics - Current carbon and green certificate prices are expected to push wholesale electricity prices from 350 RMB/MWh to 385 RMB/MWh, with further increases anticipated if carbon prices rise to 150-200 RMB/ton [6]. - If green certificate prices align with carbon prices, wholesale electricity prices could increase by 24-31% [6]. Future Outlook - The carbon market is expected to transition from "soft constraints" to "hard constraints" by 2027, with a gradual tightening of quotas and an increase in the proportion of paid allowances [7]. - Policies are being established to link the environmental value of green certificates with carbon reduction values, which may enhance the economic viability of green electricity [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power companies. Recommendations include major thermal power companies such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [4][20]. - Continuous government policies supporting the development of renewable energy are anticipated to lead to stable profitability in renewable power generation. Recommended companies include Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind power companies [4][20]. - The report notes that the growth in installed capacity and power generation will offset the downward pressure on electricity prices, with nuclear power companies expected to maintain stable profitability. Recommended companies include China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the defensive attributes of hydropower stocks in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending Jiangsu Yangtze Power as a stable and growth-oriented hydropower leader [4][20]. - The environmental sector is entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow. The report suggests focusing on "utility-like investment opportunities" in the environmental sector, recommending companies such as China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings [21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.57%, while the public utility index increased by 0.06% and the environmental index by 0.27%. The relative returns for public utilities and environmental sectors were 0.63% and 0.84%, respectively [13][22]. Important Events - Shanxi Province initiated a bidding process for the 2026 incremental renewable energy project mechanism, with a total bidding scale of 9.576 billion kWh, including 3.527 billion kWh from wind power and 6.049 billion kWh from solar power. The bidding price range is set between 0.2 and 0.32 yuan/kWh [2][14]. Special Research - The report outlines that over 26 cities in China have raised water prices in 2025, with adjustments primarily between 10% and 30%. The report emphasizes the necessity of price adjustments due to rising costs faced by water supply companies [3][17][19]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends various companies across different sectors, including thermal power, renewable energy, nuclear power, hydropower, and environmental services, based on their expected performance and market conditions [4][20][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shaanxi has been actively implementing carbon quota compliance as a key measure to promote the construction of the national carbon market, achieving significant milestones since the market's launch in 2021 [1][2] - The total carbon quota trading volume reached 45.21 million tons, with a transaction value of 3.121 billion yuan [1] - In 2024, the focus will be on ensuring 100% compliance for key emission units, with a projected carbon quota trading volume of 985,000 tons and a transaction value of 581 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Shaanxi is continuously improving its institutional framework to standardize carbon emission trading and data quality management, including the establishment of a carbon emission data audit room [2] - The monthly audit pass rate for carbon emission data has increased to 89.6%, indicating a significant improvement in data quality across the province [2] - The province has successfully implemented five carbon quota collateralized loans totaling 34.62 million yuan, enhancing financing channels for key emission units and encouraging energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives [2]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has achieved stable operation and is seen as a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a green economic transition [1][7] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances is expected to reach 865 million tons, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [1] - The market has shown significant growth, with a 24% year-on-year increase in trading volume in 2025, reaching 235 million tons and a transaction value of 14.63 billion yuan [2] Market Expansion - In 2025, 3,378 key emission units will be included in the national carbon market, covering industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting [2] - The average trading price for carbon allowances in 2025 was 62.36 yuan per ton, with a year-end closing price of 74.63 yuan per ton [2] - The Shanghai carbon market has successfully included over 400 enterprises and more than 1,800 investment institutions across 28 industries, being the first to include the aviation sector and the only one to include the shipping sector [2] System Innovation and Optimization - China's new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets aim for a 7% to 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 from peak levels, providing a roadmap for the next decade [4] - The release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition" marks a significant step in advancing the carbon market, indicating a phase of deepening and accelerating development [4] - Experts suggest establishing a comprehensive quota allocation scheme aligned with national carbon reduction goals to enhance the carbon market's effectiveness [5] International Cooperation - A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Beijing Green Exchange and the Singapore Metaverse Green Exchange to facilitate cross-border carbon credit technology integration [6] - China's carbon market is recognized internationally for its effective design and innovation, contributing to global carbon reduction efforts and providing valuable experience for emerging economies [7] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively exploring cross-border carbon trading and aims to establish management systems for such transactions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has become a key policy tool for controlling greenhouse gas emissions and promoting a comprehensive green transition in the economy and society, showing steady growth and increasing market vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market reached 865 million tons, with a total transaction value exceeding 57.663 billion yuan [1]. - In 2025, the trading volume of carbon allowances reached 235 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.63 billion yuan [2]. - The average trading price for the year was 62.36 yuan per ton, with the year-end closing price rising to 74.63 yuan per ton [2]. Group 2: Industry Coverage and Development - By 2025, 3,378 key emission units will be included in the national carbon market, expanding coverage from the initial power generation sector to critical industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum smelting [2]. - Shanghai's carbon market has included over 400 enterprises across 28 industries and has been a pioneer in incorporating the aviation and water transport sectors [4]. Group 3: Policy and Future Directions - 2025 is a crucial year for accelerating the construction of the carbon market system, with new national contributions (NDC) targets set to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035 [4]. - The release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks the beginning of a new phase for the national carbon market [4]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Influence - The international influence of China's carbon market is growing, with a memorandum of understanding signed between the Beijing Green Exchange and the Singapore Metaverse Green Exchange for cross-border carbon credit technology integration [5]. - International experts have praised China's carbon market achievements, noting its contribution to both domestic green transition and global carbon market development [5]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The dual growth in trading volume and value, along with the expansion of industry coverage, indicates an enhanced market function in guiding prices and resource allocation, with increasing awareness of carbon asset management among enterprises [6]. - The transition of China's carbon market from a domestic reduction tool to an internationally influential asset pricing center is underway, with potential future developments including carbon futures and alignment with international standards [6].

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has achieved stable operation and is seen as a crucial tool for addressing climate change and promoting a green economic transition [1][7] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances is expected to reach 865 million tons, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [1] - The market has shown significant growth, with a 24% year-on-year increase in trading volume in 2025, reaching 235 million tons and a transaction value of 14.63 billion yuan [2] Market Expansion - In 2025, 3,378 key emission units will be included in the national carbon market, covering industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting [2] - The average trading price for carbon allowances in 2025 was 62.36 yuan per ton, with a year-end closing price of 74.63 yuan per ton [2] - The Shanghai carbon market has successfully included over 400 enterprises and more than 1,800 investment institutions across 28 industries, being the first to include the aviation sector and the only one to include the shipping sector [2] System Innovation and Optimization - China's new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets aim for a 7% to 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 from peak levels, providing a roadmap for the next decade [4] - The release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition" marks a significant step in advancing the carbon market, indicating a phase of deepening and accelerating development [4] - Experts suggest that a comprehensive allocation scheme for industry quotas should be established to align with national carbon reduction goals [5] International Cooperation - A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Beijing Green Exchange and the Singapore Metaverse Green Exchange to facilitate cross-border carbon credit technology integration [6] - China's carbon market is recognized internationally for its effective design and innovation, contributing to reduced carbon intensity in electricity production and serving as a model for emerging economies [7] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively exploring cross-border carbon trading and aims to establish management systems for such transactions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].