证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 药明康德(603259) [Table_Author] 唐爱金 医药首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin1@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 维持全年指引不变，TIDES 业务逆势增 长 药明康德(603259)：高基数下稳定增 长，盈利能力持续提升 药明康德(603259)：业绩符合预期， 多业务协同稳健发展 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B [Table_Title] 业绩边际改善趋势明确，2025 年有望实现双 位数增长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 18 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]3 月 17 日，公司发布《2024 年年度报告》。2024 年公司实 现营业收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for WuXi AppTec, indicating a potential for double-digit growth in 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 39.24 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, but a 5.2% increase when excluding COVID-19 commercialization projects. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.45 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit increased by 2.5% to 9.99 billion yuan [1][2]. - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 11.54 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.3% and a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. The adjusted net profit for Q4 was 3.24 billion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company expects revenue from continuing operations to return to double-digit growth in 2025, with a projected revenue of 41.5 to 43 billion yuan, representing a growth of 10% to 15% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported quarterly revenues of 7.98 billion yuan, 9.26 billion yuan, 10.46 billion yuan, and 11.54 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1.91 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, 2.97 billion yuan, and 3.24 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The total revenue for 2024 was 39.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.7%. The adjusted net profit was 10.58 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Business Segments - The chemical business generated 29.05 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 0.4%, but a growth of 11.2% when excluding specific commercialization projects. The TIDES business saw a significant revenue increase of 70.1% to 5.8 billion yuan [3][4]. - The testing business reported a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in order prices [4][5]. - The biological business achieved a revenue of 2.54 billion yuan, with a 29.9% growth in non-tumor-related areas [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to 7 to 8 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on expanding global D&M capacity [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 42.32 billion yuan, 47.08 billion yuan, and 52.24 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 11.02 billion yuan, 12.50 billion yuan, and 14.09 billion yuan [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report rates Thermo Fisher as "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential upside of 31.8% [2] Core Insights - The performance of C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies is showing positive trends, while clinical CRO companies are experiencing a decline in demand [1][4] - The overall revenue and profit growth for the tracked companies in 2024 remains under pressure, but half of them showed improvement in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [6][7] - The demand outlook for 2025 varies significantly across different segments, with C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies being optimistic, while clinical CRO companies maintain a cautious stance [1][4][38] Summary by Sections Profit Recovery - Profit recovery is outpacing revenue recovery, with the median and average profit growth rates for the industry in 2024 at +2.4% and +3.5%, respectively, compared to -6.2% and -7.2% in 2023 [7][24] - The average gross margin for the tracked companies decreased from 46.4% in 2022 to 41.7% in 2024, indicating pressure from demand weakness [24][25] Demand Trends - C(D)MO companies are witnessing strong commercial production demand, with Lonza and Samsung Bio reporting significant growth in their C(D)MO revenues [38][39] - Life sciences upstream companies are benefiting from the completion of inventory destocking by downstream clients, leading to a recovery in demand [39][40] 2025 Performance Guidance - C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies are providing improved performance guidance for 2025, while clinical CRO companies are showing a notable deterioration in their outlook [1][4][39] - Lonza expects its C(D)MO revenue growth to approach 20% in 2025, while Samsung Bio anticipates a continued growth of 20-25% [1][4] Long-term Growth Support - The global healthcare financing is stabilizing, with a 1.4% year-on-year increase in 2024, marking the first positive growth since 2021 [1][4] - Pharmaceutical companies' strong free cash flow will continue to support innovation and research and development [1][4] Market Reactions - Following the 4Q24 earnings releases, stock price reactions varied significantly across different segments, with C(D)MO and clinical pre-CRO stocks performing better than life sciences upstream and clinical CRO stocks [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [7] Core Views - The report highlights the performance of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index, which decreased by 2.72% during the week of February 24-28, 2024, outperforming the ChiNext Index but underperforming the CSI 300 Index. It emphasizes the identification of high-growth pharmaceutical companies for potential investment opportunities in 2024 [12][19] Summary by Sections Recent Review - The market showed stability in the first half of the week, with a significant drop on Friday. The technology sector faced adjustments, while the steel and food & beverage sectors performed well. The report notes that innovative drugs and companies with strong performance metrics are favorable, while AI medical applications experienced some adjustments [2][13] Future Outlook - The report suggests focusing on two main areas: market mapping related to AI applications in healthcare and policy expectations from the Two Sessions, such as fertility policies. It also emphasizes the ongoing innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, including international expansion and commercialization of early-stage innovative products [3][14] Strategy Configuration - The report outlines two strategic approaches: 1. **Pharmaceutical Style Rhythm**: Focus on innovative drugs such as BeiGene, Kelun-Biotech, and others, as well as AI medical applications like International Medical and Meinian Health [4][15] 2. **Pharmaceutical Industry Logic**: Emphasizes the commercialization of innovative drugs, new technologies, and internationalization strategies, including companies like Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine [6][16] High-Growth Company Analysis - The report lists several high-growth pharmaceutical companies based on their 2024 performance forecasts, including BeiGene and BGI Genomics, noting that companies with strong quarterly performance are likely to maintain high growth throughout the year [19][22]

Market Review - The overall market sentiment for the pharmaceutical sector remains cautious, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index declining by 2.78%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.56 percentage points, ranking 21st among 30 primary industries [4] - The top ten stocks by growth this week include Nuo Cheng Jian Hua-U, Chang Yao Holding, and Shanghai Yi Zhong, with growth rates of 20.98%, 20.96%, and 18.78% respectively [3][4] - Conversely, the bottom ten stocks include Jiangsu Wu Zhong and Xin Gan Jiang, with declines of 4% and 6% respectively [4] Industry and Stock Events - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation is currently low, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) also underweight in this sector. The outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025 remains optimistic due to macroeconomic factors such as the recovery of US Treasury yields and the driving effect of large categories and products [7] - In the innovative drug segment, there is a shift from quantity logic to quality logic, emphasizing the importance of product differentiation and internationalization. Companies to watch include Heng Rui, Bai Ji, and Nuo Cheng Jian Hua [7] - The medical device sector is expected to benefit from the acceleration of equipment renewal policies, with key companies like Mai Rui Medical and Xin Hua Medical positioned to gain from increased orders [7] - The IVD market is anticipated to return to high growth, with a focus on companies like An Tu Biology and Di Rui Medical, as domestic market penetration continues to expand [7] - The blood products sector is set for growth, with a favorable regulatory environment for plasma collection and increasing demand post-pandemic. Companies such as Tian Tan Biology and Bo Ya Biology are recommended [12] Antibiotics Industry Update - The global antibiotic market is projected to grow steadily, with a market size of approximately 98 billion yuan in China from 2017 to the third quarter of 2024. The top three hospital antibiotics in 2024 are expected to be injectable formulations of Piperacillin and Tazobactam, with sales of 4.94 billion yuan [15][16] - The production capacity for key antibiotic intermediates is under strict regulatory control, with the latest guidelines from the National Development and Reform Commission continuing to restrict new capacity in antibiotic intermediates [17] - The price trends for key antibiotic products such as Penicillin and 6-APA have shown fluctuations, with 6-APA's price reaching 320 yuan per kilogram by January 2025 [24][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is maintained at "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery process for the CXO sector, driven by a rebound in global healthcare investment and the potential of AI in drug development [6][9][10] - The FDA has granted priority review status to a potential "first-in-class" small molecule for cancer treatment, indicating significant advancements in the pharmaceutical pipeline [3][43] Market Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3379.11, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.00% [1] - The pharmaceutical industry index increased by 0.96%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industry indices [1] - Weekly performance of various segments within the pharmaceutical industry showed mixed results, with traditional Chinese medicine down by 2.30% and medical services up by 6.87% [1] CXO Recovery Process - Global healthcare investment is showing signs of recovery, with 2024 global pharmaceutical investment amounting to $57.747 billion, a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, significantly narrowing from a 34% drop in 2023 [7][22] - Domestic investment in the pharmaceutical sector for 2024 is projected at 517.97 billion yuan, also reflecting a narrowing decline [7][22] - The failure of the 2024 Biodefense Act to pass is expected to alleviate valuation pressures on CXO companies [8][28] AI Empowerment in Drug Development - The rise of artificial intelligence is transforming drug development, addressing challenges such as long development cycles and high costs [9][29] - Companies that achieve breakthroughs in AI applications within the CXO sector are likely to gain competitive advantages in future drug development [9][29] Industry News - The RuiPath pathology model, developed by Huawei and Ruijin Hospital, aims to enhance diagnostic accuracy and efficiency in pathology [2][43] - Chimerix's dordaviprone has received FDA priority review, marking a significant milestone for potential cancer therapies [3][43]

适时转身。 投资界（PEdaily.cn）旗下，专注并购动态 以下文章来源于并购最前线 ，作者岳笑笑 并购最前线 . 作者 I 岳笑笑 先来看并购的两位主角—— 根据公开资料，收购方奥浦迈是一家专门从事细胞培养产品与服务的科技型企业，曾在 20 22年登陆科创板，被称作"细胞培养基CDMO第一股"。巅峰时期，公司市值一度超过 10 0亿元，但随后股价持续下滑，如今市值浮动在45亿元左右。 宣布收购前，奥浦迈业绩持续下滑。2 02 2年及2023年，公司的营业收入分别为2.94亿 元、2. 4 3亿元；毛利率分别为 6 3. 9 7%、58.85%；归母净利润分别为1.05亿元、0. 5 4亿 元。前不久发布的业绩预告更是显示，公司2024年预计实现归母净利润0.20亿元，同比 下降62 . 37%。 奥浦迈迫切需要一条出路。于是在去年11月，公司公告拟出资不超过3亿元参设产业投资 基金，对中国境内生物制造、制药设备和耗材、生物医药等领域的早中期项目和并购项 目进行投资活动。此前奥浦迈还称，投资并购是公司一直想做的事情，具体的进展会根 据公司实际情况推进。 报道 I 投资界-并购最前线 医药圈又诞生一例并购案。 ...