中药板块医药商业有望拐点，低估值、高股息吸引大 20260106 摘要 中药板块 2025 年受中成药集采续约和院外市场疲软影响业绩不佳，但 库存去化逐步完成，预计 2026 年将有所提升。以岭和特一等公司去库 存较早，而太极、葵花等公司压力较大。 基本药物目录（GML）对中药板块有显著提升作用，新版 GML 的发布 将带来增长机会。中成药集采对独家品种保护力度较大，降幅相对较小， 且原材料成本下降将在 26 年度报表中体现。 华润系公司如三九，其十五规划目标通常定在行业较高水平，且历史规 划完成情况良好，发展前景值得关注。佐力医业收购未来医业优质资产， 并胜诉百令胶囊仿制药诉讼，预计 26 年度利润将显著增长。 佐力制药预计 2025 年归母净利润约为 6.5 亿元，2026 年约为 9.1 亿 元，目前估值仅 13 倍左右，公司股息率接近 4.5%。三九医药受益于政 策利好，业绩稳健且估值便宜，具有吸引力。 方盛制药养血祛风成功纳入医保谈判目录，管线梯队完善且集采影响已 基本消化，预计 2025 年业绩约为 3.1 亿元，2026 年接近 3.7 亿元， 对应估值较低，且近期进行了特别分红。 Q&A 20 ...

益丰药房 20251225 摘要 益丰药房通过收并购和加盟门店扩展实现中期发展，当前行业不景气， 中型连锁药房面临生存挑战，为益丰提供了以较低 PS（0.4-0.5 倍）进 行并购的良好机会，同时，益丰精细化管理和运营能力为加盟业务的推 广奠定基础。 长期来看，医药行业处于出清阶段，处方外流趋势缓慢但持续，行业增 长速度相对较弱，但仍具发展潜力。目前线下药店数量减少，但出清速 度缓慢，线上销售增速较快，对线下市场形成一定冲击。 益丰药房 PE 估值位于历史低位，处于过去 10 年 1%左右的分位数，向 下空间有限，向上空间更大，是投资头部连锁药房的良好时机。整个药 房板块位于过去 10 年 20%左右的分位数。 益丰药房成立于 2001 年，通过内生扩张和并购成为领先连锁药房，门 店数量接近 1.5 万家，会员超过 1 亿。零售是主要收入来源，加盟及分 销业务毛利率相对较低。在中南、华东、华南等地区拥有较高市场份额。 司美格鲁肽在中国市场销售额快速增长，预计 2025 年上半年销售额约 为 4 亿美元，全年可能达到 70 亿元人民币，终端销售额可能达到百亿 级别，推动线上药品销售增长，但用于糖尿病和减重的具体 ...

大参林 20251225 摘要 大森林预计 2025 年第四季度业绩乐观，短期因素可对冲行业增速下滑 影响，但需关注 2025 年 11 月至 2026 年 1 月可能受到的盛行影响。 大森林主动转型，关闭 400 多家低效门店，从规模竞争转向质量优先， 通过供应链、数字化和精细化运营抢占市场份额，并保持华南地区基本 盘稳定。 大森林向轻资产加盟模式转型，截至 2025 年三季度末门店总数达 17,385 家，其中加盟店 7,000 多家，提高扩张效率和单店盈利能力。 大森林 ROE 显著高于行业平均水平，资本运用效率和盈利质量领先，通 过直营式加盟扩张、高效运营和强劲现金流实现高质量增长闭环。 顺德智慧物流中心启用，实现 24 小时覆盖珠三角、72 小时通达全国的 高效配送网络，有助于费用控制和利润提升。 政府放开非药品类销售限制，连锁药房可销售所有非药品类商品，提高 门店面积利用效率，有助于整体行业规模快速增长。 大森林自主开发东城阿胶、可可康等参茸滋补品，自由品牌超 1,000 个， 通过向上游延伸产业链改善利润端，并以慢病管理服务为核心建立客户 体系。 Q&A 大森林在行业深度调整期内如何展现出卓越的 ...

报告仅供4创证券有限责任公司的客户使用，本公司不会因接收人权到本报告而阅其为客户。华创证券的这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，提告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成本公风对所述证券买 卖的出价或海价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免费声明。 部分 行情回顾 01 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年12月12日 www.hczq.com 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第154期 2025Q3实体药店市场分析 本周专题联系人: 高初营 | 华创医药团队: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | 执业编号: S0360520110002 邮箱: zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | 执业编号: S0360520120002 | 邮箱:liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | 执业编号: S0360520110004 | 邮箱:lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 高初营 | | 执业编号: S ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company is a leading retail pharmacy chain in China, focusing on both traditional and modern medicine, with a wide coverage across 21 provinces. As of September 30, 2025, it operates 17,385 stores, including 10,356 direct-operated and 7,029 franchised stores. The company is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" and aims to enhance its core competitiveness through digital supply chains and specialized services [3][5][13] - The retail pharmacy industry is undergoing a transformation from scale expansion to quality competition, with a market size of 929.3 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 6.5% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed significantly [3][46] - The company achieved a revenue of 20.068 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and a net profit of 1.081 billion yuan, up 26.0% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 6.546 billion yuan, growing by 2.5%, and a net profit of 283 million yuan, up 41.0% year-on-year [3][19][26] Company Overview - The company has developed into a leading retail pharmacy chain through steady internal growth and strategic acquisitions since its establishment in 1999. It has expanded its network significantly, covering major markets across China [5][13] - The ownership structure is concentrated, with the controlling shareholders being three brothers who collectively hold 55.12% of the shares, ensuring efficient decision-making [8] Industry Status - The retail pharmacy market is experiencing a decline in growth rates, with the number of retail pharmacies decreasing from 706,000 in Q3 2024 to 699,000 in Q1 2025 due to various factors including online competition and regulatory changes [46][51] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration and chain rates, with larger chains likely to gain a competitive edge over smaller pharmacies [3][46] Financial Performance - The company’s profit margins have improved, with a gross margin of 34.8% and a net margin of 5.8% in the first three quarters of 2025. The retail business achieved a gross margin of 37.7% [26][29] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 27.205 billion, 30.071 billion, and 33.363 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.208 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.798 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [3][113]

Summary of Conference Call on Pharmacy Sector Industry Overview - The pharmacy sector is showing signs of recovery, with positive signals from industry policies and adjustments made by pharmacies, particularly leading pharmacies like YaoXingTang, which have achieved same-store sales growth through adjustments [1][2] - The three main trends in the pharmacy industry are prescription outflow, increased industry concentration, and diversified operations [1][3] Key Points Recovery Indicators - The pharmacy sector has been consolidating at the bottom for about a year since 2024, with leading pharmacies currently at historical valuation lows [2] - Positive changes in industry policies and pharmacy operations are evident, indicating a clear upward trend [2] Major Trends 1. **Prescription Outflow**: This long-term trend significantly contributes to increased customer traffic and sales, although online prescription transfer remains slow [3] 2. **Industry Concentration**: The concentration of the top ten pharmacies in China is around 30%, compared to 80% in Japan and 70% in the US, indicating substantial room for growth [3] 3. **Diversified Operations**: Successful implementation of comprehensive adjustments by leading pharmacies in 2026 is expected to significantly boost profits [4] Company Performances - **Yifeng Pharmacy**: Designated as a "gold stock" for December, with a valuation offering good value. Same-store sales are expected to recover to over 1% growth starting Q3 2025, with projected revenue growth returning to double digits in 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of less than 14 [5] - **Dafeng Pharmaceutical**: Achieved a profit growth of 26% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit margin increasing from 3% to nearly 6%. The company plans to restart its acquisition strategy, which is expected to support future performance [6] - **Laobaixing Pharmacy**: Same-store sales turned positive starting Q3 2025, with significant contributions from acquisitions. The company is also making progress in store adjustments [7] Future Expectations - **Yifeng Pharmacy**: Expected to see improved performance in 2026, with revenue growth projected to exceed double digits and a PE ratio of less than 14, indicating a favorable investment position [5] - **Dafeng Pharmaceutical**: Anticipated to achieve over 30% net profit growth for the year, with a strong performance trend continuing into the future [6] - **Yifeng Pharmacy's Adjustments**: Plans to increase the non-pharmaceutical product ratio to 40% over the next three to five years, with significant profit contributions expected from store adjustments [7] Industry Adjustments and Projections - The pharmacy sector is expected to conduct pilot adjustments in 150 stores in 2025, with plans for comprehensive adjustments in 2026. Adjusted stores are projected to achieve a sales share of over 30%, with daily sales increasing by 1,200 yuan and gross margins improving by 18% [7] - If 70% of stores implement these adjustments, the net profit increase could exceed 500 million yuan [7] Investment Opportunities - The pharmacy sector has largely moved past policy disruptions, with ongoing improvements in same-store sales and increasing industry concentration. Leading pharmacies are now at attractive valuation levels, with growth certainty in performance [9] - Recommendations include focusing on opportunities within the pharmacy sector, particularly on stable-performing leading pharmacies like Yifeng and Dafeng [9] Data Evaluation - Data Evaluation is actively expanding and collaborating with Taiwan's Dashi Pharmacy for pilot projects in Shandong, showing optimism for future performance despite limited current data [10]

Core Viewpoint - The prescription drug market in China is experiencing significant growth through e-commerce platforms, driven by policy changes and increasing consumer demand for innovative drugs, particularly in the chronic disease sector [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The online retail market for pharmaceuticals in China has surpassed 50 billion yuan, with a notable growth rate of approximately 40% expected from 2024 to the first half of 2025 [9]. - The share of public hospitals in the terminal drug market has decreased from about 70% in 2017 to approximately 59.8% in 2024, while online pharmacies have seen a growth rate of about 14.4% [5][10]. - E-commerce platforms are becoming a new growth point for prescription drug sales, with their market share reaching around 10% in the outpatient market [4][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The National Medical Products Administration and the State Administration for Market Regulation have intensified oversight of online medical advertising, particularly concerning prescription drugs [3][15]. - There is a need for stricter regulations on online pharmacies to prevent misuse and ensure compliance with prescription safety [15][19]. - New guidelines are being proposed to regulate promotional activities for prescription drugs, prohibiting practices such as "buy one, get one free" offers [18][19]. Group 3: Insurance and Payment Models - Some regions in China have begun allowing users to pay for online prescriptions directly from their medical insurance accounts, indicating a shift towards integrating e-commerce with healthcare financing [13]. - Commercial health insurance is increasingly being seen as a supplementary means to cover drug payments, with new products being developed to include online pharmacy discounts [11][13]. - The role of commercial insurance in the online drug purchasing landscape is evolving, focusing more on providing discounts rather than new coverage responsibilities [13][14]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Drug Attributes - Innovative drugs, particularly those for chronic diseases like diabetes and obesity, are gaining traction in the consumer market due to their perceived value and accessibility through online platforms [8][9]. - The sales dynamics for chronic disease medications are shifting, with a growing emphasis on consumer awareness and purchasing power influencing sales strategies [9][10]. - The rise of online platforms allows pharmaceutical companies to reach potential consumers more effectively, leveraging data analytics for targeted marketing [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The company has steadily developed into a leading chain pharmacy enterprise in China over the past 20 years, with a strong market presence in Central South, East China, and South China regions, and a total of over 14,666 stores by September 2025, serving 110 million members [3][4] - The retail pharmacy industry is undergoing a transformation from scale expansion to quality competition, with a market size of 929.3 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 6.5% year-on-year, but showing signs of slowing growth [3][46] - The company has shown slight revenue growth and strong profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with operating income of 17.286 billion yuan (up 0.4% year-on-year) and net profit of 1.225 billion yuan (up 10.3% year-on-year) [20][21] - The company is expected to maintain growth through refined operations and the development of a new retail system, with projected revenues of 24.546 billion yuan, 27.292 billion yuan, and 30.444 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 11.2%, and 11.5% respectively [3][20] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has expanded its operational regions and has a strong financing and acquisition capability, establishing itself as a leading chain pharmacy since its founding in 2001 [5] - The company has a clear shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder being Chairman Gao Yi, who holds 11.67% of the shares directly [8] Industry Status - The retail pharmacy market is experiencing a decline in growth rates, with the number of retail pharmacies decreasing from 706,000 in Q3 2024 to 699,000 in Q1 2025 due to industry slowdown and online competition [3][46] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration and chain rates, with larger chain enterprises likely to gain competitive advantages over smaller pharmacies [3][46] Operational Effectiveness - The company has implemented a "fleet-type" store network strategy, enhancing customer repurchase rates through a membership system and digitalization [3][29] - The company has issued convertible bonds to raise 1.797 billion yuan for projects aimed at improving operational efficiency and logistics capabilities [18] Performance Review - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with a gross margin of 40.4% and a net margin of 7.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [29] - The retail business remains the primary revenue source, while the franchise and distribution business has shown significant growth, with a 17.5% increase in revenue [32] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of prescription drug outflow, which is anticipated to provide new growth opportunities in the retail pharmacy market [57][62] - The company is focusing on expanding its new retail system, enhancing its O2O and B2C channels, and leveraging its large member base to drive sales [93]

Core Insights - Rongtai Pharmaceutical is a leading provider of marketing and supply chain solutions in China's outpatient pharmaceutical market, ranking fourth among service providers based on projected 2024 revenue [1] - The company has established partnerships with 1,291 pharmaceutical companies and offers a total of 5,161 SKUs, including products from 15 of the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies [1] - Despite revenue growth from 2.427 billion to 2.875 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, net profit has declined due to investments in five subsidiaries and ongoing digital platform and smart supply chain system developments [1][2] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Rongtai Pharmaceutical's total assets amounted to 1.46 billion yuan, with accounts receivable and inventory totaling 1.04 billion yuan [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.875 billion yuan for 2024, with a cash and cash equivalents balance of 116 million yuan at the end of the period [2] - Inventory turnover days are approximately 40 days, while accounts receivable turnover days are around 60 days [2] Market Trends - The outpatient pharmaceutical retail market is projected to increase its share of the overall pharmaceutical market from 40.2% in 2024 to 47.9% by 2030, according to Frost & Sullivan [2] - Rongtai Pharmaceutical is transitioning from a traditional distributor to a digital service provider, focusing on high-value digital services such as data monitoring and inventory management as future revenue sources [2] Strategic Direction - The company plans to strengthen its "supply chain + digitalization" model and continue investing in technology research and development [3] - The smart supply chain management system has shown improvements in logistics accuracy and timeliness, along with full-chain cost control [3] - As the pharmaceutical industry undergoes digital transformation and prescription outflow trends develop, Rongtai's investments and market positioning may influence its future competitive standing [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown impressive profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 20.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.081 billion yuan, up 26.0% [1][9] - The company is expanding its market presence across China, leveraging a combination of self-built stores, franchises, and acquisitions, establishing a leading position in the industry [3][78] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 27.205 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 2.7% [3][101] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's sales expense ratio decreased to 21.8%, while the net profit margin improved to 5.8% [2][17] - The gross profit margin for the retail business was 37.7%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase [2][17] - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit over the next few years, with net profit expected to reach 1.208 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of 32.0% [3][101] Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a diversified business model that includes direct retail, franchise operations, and distribution, focusing on high-margin products [41][90] - The company has developed a robust supply chain and logistics system to enhance operational efficiency and customer service [41][88] - The franchise model is becoming a significant growth driver, with the number of franchise stores increasing substantially [82][86] Market Position and Expansion - The company has established a strong presence in South China and is expanding into other regions, including the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China [3][78] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had a total of 17,385 stores, with a significant proportion being franchise stores [28][80] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing transformation in the pharmacy industry, which is shifting from rapid expansion to deeper integration [3][44] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from structural growth opportunities in the pharmacy sector, driven by trends such as prescription drug outflow and the professionalization of retail endpoints [3][60] - The projected revenue for 2026 and 2027 is 30.071 billion yuan and 33.363 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][101]