Gold is currently soaring, while Bitcoin decreases | Source: Image created with Gemini Key Takeaways Gold has continued to surge in price as we head towards the beginning of 2026. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has continued to suffer a significant fall. Market opinion is split on whether Gold or Bitcoin will be the winner entering the new year. The global precious metals market is extending its record-setting rally as Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies continue to lose momentum. As we approach the en ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency sector is experiencing a decline, with several companies showing significant drops in their stock prices, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Company Performance - Riot Platform (RIOT.US) decreased by 4.6% - Hut 8 fell by 4.5% - Canaan Creative (CAN.US) dropped by 3.8% - Robinhood (HOOD.US) and Marathon Holdings (MARA.US) both declined by 3.7% - Coinbase (COIN.US) saw a decrease of 3.3% [1]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 3.9% to $3.54 trillion, while the 24-hour trading volume increased to $223 billion, indicating a slight uptick in trading activity despite the overall market decline [1][8]. Crypto Performance - Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, 9 experienced losses in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin (BTC) down 2.8% to $104,577 and a market cap of approximately $2.08 trillion. Ethereum (ETH) fell 6.4% to $3,493, and BNB (BNB) lost 8.3%, trading at $946 [3][8]. - Other notable declines included XRP (XRP) down 6.7% to $2.25 and Solana (SOL) down 11.0% to $157. Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped 6.6% to $0.1625, while Cardano (ADA) fell 7.4% to $0.5349 [4][8]. Altcoin Highlights - Despite the downturn, some altcoins showed significant gains, with Jelly-My-Jelly (JMJ) surging 183.3%, Decred (DCR) increasing by 150%, and Zcash (ZEC) rising 19.4%. Trending tokens included Dash, Decred, and Zcash, reflecting renewed interest in privacy and masternode-based cryptocurrencies [4]. Institutional Activity - Michael Saylor's firm, Strategy, announced plans to launch a Euro-denominated credit instrument, STRE, aimed at European and global institutional investors. The company plans to offer 3.5 million shares of its 10% Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, with proceeds intended for general corporate use and additional Bitcoin acquisitions [5]. - Strategy also made a recent Bitcoin purchase of 397 BTC worth $45.6 million between October 27 and November 2 [6]. Market Sentiment - The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 27 (Fear) from 36 the previous day, indicating a shift in market sentiment. Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $186.5 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded $135.76 million in outflows. In contrast, Solana ETFs experienced inflows of $70.05 million [8]. - On-chain data suggests that institutional accumulation of Bitcoin has slowed, with inflows falling below new Bitcoin issuance for the first time in seven months [9].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping as much as 3% before closing down 1.76% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and the China Enterprises Index fell by 0.79% and 0.92% respectively, indicating a very low market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks, which serve as market indicators, mostly declined, with Xiaomi and JD.com both down nearly 3%, Alibaba down 2.57%, Meituan down 2.35%, and NetEase down 1.54% [1] - Baidu saw a rise of nearly 3% after reportedly securing 260,000 autonomous taxi orders weekly [1] - Gold stocks led the decline in the non-ferrous metal sector due to short-term demand pressure from adjustments in gold value-added tax, with Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zhaojin Mining all declining [1] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a flash crash, with over $1.2 billion in positions liquidated within 24 hours, leading to a collective drop in cryptocurrency-related stocks [1] - Other popular sectors such as Apple-related stocks, biopharmaceuticals, paper, automotive, semiconductors, and military industry stocks also showed weakness [1] Entertainment and Banking Sector - The total box office revenue for the first three quarters of the year surpassed 40 billion yuan, leading to active trading in the film and entertainment sector [1] - The investment income reported in the banking sector showed a stark contrast, with China Construction Bank experiencing a 150% increase, contributing to a sustained upward trend in domestic bank stocks, with Everbright Bank leading the rise at 3% [1]

Core Insights - The current state of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire cryptocurrency market is identified as a typical second wave capitulation phase in the ongoing bull market cycle [1][3] - This capitulation phase follows a significant B wave correction, where market sentiment is at a low point, leading investors to abandon positions before a parabolic rise [1][3] Market Analysis - Henrik Zeberg notes that capitulation is an emotional adjustment before the final phase, indicating that this is the most uncomfortable time during a bull market [3] - Bitcoin recently experienced a brief drop to around $114,000, currently trading at approximately $108,000, near its 200-day moving average [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 40, suggesting panic and weakness in the market, but a structural collapse has not yet occurred [3] - Historically, accumulation phases before rebounds often exhibit similar conditions [3] Future Projections - Zeberg anticipates that the next phase, the 3(4)-5 wave, will lead to the most explosive market movements to date, fueled by new liquidity and risk appetite [3] - Ethereum is expected to experience a vertical price increase, potentially reaching $6,000, $7,500, $10,000, or even $12,000, while Bitcoin's price could exceed $160,000 [3] - This phase is described as the "end of everything bubble," preceding a large-scale deflationary collapse [3] - Market sentiment at the peak is expected to emit contrary signals, indicating that euphoria may obscure warning signs [3] Market Cleanup - The current adjustment is seen as a process to cleanse the market, eliminating weak investors and preparing for the final and strongest rebound of the macro cycle [3] - Zeberg emphasizes that the bull market remains strong despite the ongoing adjustments [3]

Group 1 - Bitcoin-related stocks collectively declined, with Yunfeng Financial down 8.69% to HKD 3.89, Mici Strategy down 7.26% to HKD 2.3, Boyaa Interactive down 6.54% to HKD 5, and OK Blockchain down 5.66% to HKD 0.25 [1] - The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin's price dropping below USD 105,000 [1] - Institutional demand for Bitcoin has fallen below the new coin mining rate for the first time in seven months, indicating a potential retreat from large buyers [1] Group 2 - Data from Glassnode shows that the weekly net inflow of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF has been below 600 Bitcoins for the past three weeks, a significant drop compared to previous cycles where inflows exceeded 10,000 Bitcoins [1] - Analysts from Glassnode indicate that the slowdown in institutional demand is evident based on the current inflow levels [1]

Core Insights - Nvidia's market capitalization reached $5 trillion, marking a historic milestone for publicly traded companies, achieved in just 113 days, showcasing the explosive growth of AI technology [2][4] - In stark contrast, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a severe downturn, characterized by capital flight, innovation stagnation, and a collapse of confidence [2][10] Group 1: Nvidia's Market Performance - Nvidia's valuation surpasses that of most countries' annual GDP, with its market cap exceeding the total value of global cryptocurrencies by $1.2 trillion [5] - The company's market cap is over 60% of the combined valuations of Apple and Microsoft, establishing it as a new benchmark in the tech industry [6] - The S&P 500 index has shown strong performance, with a return rate that has outpaced Bitcoin this year, positioning it as a safe haven for capital [6][18] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Decline - The cryptocurrency market, once thriving, is now facing a significant decline, with Bitcoin's market cap at approximately $2.3 trillion, accounting for 62% of the total crypto market [7] - Altcoins have suffered greatly, with a combined market cap of about $1.5 trillion, down nearly 30% since the beginning of the year, leading to liquidity crises for many tokens [9] - The shift in capital from cryptocurrencies to stocks is evident, particularly in the South Korean market, where the KOSPI index has surged nearly 71% this year [10][11] Group 3: Internal Challenges in Cryptocurrency - The cryptocurrency market is facing internal issues, with a 30% decrease in the number of developers on GitHub, indicating a halt in innovation [16] - Many altcoins lack clear use cases and have flawed economic models, leading to a reliance on speculative trading rather than real value creation [15] - The absence of regulatory frameworks has exacerbated the uncertainty in the crypto market, highlighted by recent events that have shaken investor confidence [22][23] Group 4: Comparative Analysis with Traditional Assets - In the competition with traditional assets, cryptocurrencies have failed to maintain their "high risk, high reward" appeal, as evidenced by the S&P 500's superior returns supported by solid corporate earnings [18][20] - Gold has emerged as a preferred safe-haven asset, with prices surpassing $4,300 per ounce, while Bitcoin struggles to transition from a risk asset to a reliable hedge [21][22] - The current capital migration reflects a preference for assets with visible profitability and controlled risks, making it challenging for cryptocurrencies to attract investment [24]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing substantial price drops, leading to over $12 billion in liquidations and heightened investor fear due to a recent hack on a DeFi protocol [1][2][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin fell from $110,000 to below $106,000, while Ethereum dropped over 9%, breaking the critical support level of $3,600, marking a 25% decline from its August high of $4,885 [2][3]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market exceeded $12.78 billion within 24 hours, affecting over 340,000 traders, with long positions accounting for the majority of liquidations [3][4]. Institutional Demand - Institutional demand for Bitcoin has decreased, with the net inflow of Bitcoin into ETFs dropping significantly, indicating a retreat from large buyers [5][8]. - Recent data shows that the weekly net inflow for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has been below 600 Bitcoin, a stark contrast to previous periods where it exceeded 10,000 Bitcoin [8]. Regulatory Developments - The European Union is planning to enhance regulatory oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges and stock exchanges by granting broader powers to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) [6]. - This initiative aims to reduce regulatory fragmentation and lower cross-border trading costs, with a draft proposal expected in December [6]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is shifting towards risk aversion, as evidenced by the increase in put options for Ethereum, indicating traders are betting on further declines [2][5]. - Despite the recent drop in inflows, some analysts note that large asset management firms are actively managing their cryptocurrency holdings, suggesting a strategic adjustment rather than outright selling [9].

Core Insights - Bitcoin's performance in 2025 has been disappointing compared to traditional assets, with a return of only 5.78% while gold surged past $4,000 and major stock indices like NASDAQ and S&P 500 saw increases of 16.17% and 11.95% respectively [2][4] - The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a significant structural transformation, moving from a speculative phase dominated by retail investors to a more institutionalized and regulated environment [6][15] Market Performance - Since Trump's inauguration, Bitcoin has seen a modest increase of 5.78%, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have risen by 11.95% and 16.17% respectively [4] - Bitcoin has faced repeated failures to break the $100,000 mark, leading to significant sell-offs by miners and a shift of institutional funds towards AI sectors [4][9] Institutional Involvement - Over 5% of Bitcoin's total supply is now held by publicly listed companies, indicating a significant increase in institutional participation [7][15] - The derivatives market for Bitcoin has experienced explosive growth, with open interest in options reaching a historical high of $63 billion, surpassing the spot market for the first time [22][26] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price movements are increasingly correlated with traditional financial markets, with a correlation coefficient of over 0.6 with the S&P 500 [26] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with long-term holders reducing risk and miners selling off their holdings to cover operational costs [27][29] Challenges and Risks - Bitcoin's price struggles to maintain above critical support levels, with the $97,000 to $100,000 range identified as a crucial threshold [12][29] - The market is experiencing a "bloodbath" phase, where weak hands are exiting, and if support levels are breached, it could trigger a wave of forced selling [28][31] Future Outlook - The potential for a new bull market in 2026 hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold key support levels and the macroeconomic environment, including Federal Reserve policies [29][35] - Innovations such as RWA tokenization and improvements in scalability may provide new growth opportunities for Bitcoin in the future [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin dropping from $110,000 to below $106,000 and Ethereum seeing a decline of over 9%, exacerbated by a hacker attack on the DeFi protocol Balancer, resulting in potential losses exceeding $100 million [1][3][4]. Market Performance - In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market saw over $1.278 billion in liquidations, affecting more than 340,000 traders, with over 90% of the liquidations being long positions [1][3][4]. - Bitcoin's price fell over 3% to $106,200, while Ethereum dropped over 7% to $3,595, with other cryptocurrencies like XRP, BNB, and Solana also experiencing declines exceeding 7% [3][4]. Institutional Demand - Institutional demand for Bitcoin has decreased, with the net inflow of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF falling below 600 Bitcoin per week, a stark contrast to previous weeks where inflows exceeded 10,000 Bitcoin [7][8]. - The recent decline in demand is noted as one of the weakest periods for institutional accumulation since the ETF's launch, indicating a potential retreat by large buyers [8]. Regulatory Developments - The European Union is considering expanding the regulatory powers of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) to include oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges, aiming to reduce regulatory fragmentation and lower cross-border trading costs [5][6]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is shifting towards risk aversion, influenced by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, which has led to a defensive posture among investors [1][5].