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美国就业“塌方式”降温?特朗普移民政策副作用炸裂!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-01 11:13
Group 1 - The Trump administration's immigration policies are increasingly straining an already weakening labor market, with July non-farm payrolls expected to show only 110,000 new jobs, down from 147,000 in June and below the average of 130,000 for the year [2] - The demand for labor is decreasing due to uncertainty from Trump's tariff policies, particularly affecting industries reliant on foreign labor such as agriculture, construction, and food manufacturing [2][3] - The U.S. labor force decreased by 130,000 in June, with a total decline of 364,000 since the beginning of the year, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, the lowest since December 2022 [2] Group 2 - The number of immigrants detained by ICE has increased from an average of 15,000 per month in 2024 to nearly 40,000 by June this year, while deportations have risen from an annualized rate of 400,000 to about 600,000 [2] - The total number of foreign workers in the U.S. has decreased by over 1 million in the past four months, with a record 5.4 million people exiting the labor market in May alone [3][4] - The share of foreign workers in the U.S. labor force fell to 19.1% in June from 19.8% in March, indicating a significant impact on industries struggling to replace lost labor [5] Group 3 - The labor shortage related to immigration could reduce the potential annual economic growth rate in the U.S. from 2% to 1% [6] - The job market is experiencing a split, with labor shortages in construction, hospitality, and agriculture, while white-collar job recruitment is slowing due to economic uncertainty [6] - The stable unemployment rate, which slightly decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, may lead the Federal Reserve to refrain from interest rate cuts despite a significant slowdown in job growth [6]
固收事件点评:量减价升,反内卷影响初现
East Money Securities· 2025-08-01 06:36
Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for July recorded at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [5][6][10] - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, with the construction sector PMI declining significantly by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6% [5][17] - The overall PMI output index decreased to 50.2%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point drop from the previous month [5][6] Group 2 - Both supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI showed marginal weakening, but prices improved significantly due to anti-involution policies, leading to a situation of reduced volume but increased prices [4][10][11] - New orders, production, and material inventory all contributed negatively to the PMI, with new orders dropping 0.8 percentage points to 49.4% [6][11][20] - The price index for factory output and major raw material purchases increased by 2.1 percentage points and 3.1 percentage points respectively, indicating substantial improvement [11][20] Group 3 - The construction sector's PMI was adversely affected by weather conditions and a weak real estate market, leading to a notable decline [17][20] - The service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 50.0%, supported by seasonal improvements in industries such as aviation and dining due to holiday travel [17][20] - The overall economic outlook remains weak, with both internal and external demand showing signs of fatigue, which continues to support long-term interest rates [20]
“反内卷”下的价格分化
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-01 05:41
证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号:S1500521040002 | | 联系电话:010-83326858 | | 邮 箱: xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号:S1500524070002 邮 箱: mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] "反内卷"下的价格分化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 1 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编:100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 打破制造业 PMI 连涨的两重因素。7 月制造业 PMI 打破了其在二季度连涨 的走势,我们认为 7 月制造业 PMI 走弱是订单回流阶段性结束、极端天 气扰动两重因素共振的结果。首先,极端天气对生产活动产生扰动。 ...
固定收益点评报告:极端天气与反内卷致量价反向波动
Huaxin Securities· 2025-08-01 04:05
2025 年 08 月 01 日 极端天气与反内卷致量价反向波动 分析师:罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师:杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 事件 受制造业进入传统生产淡季,部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害 等因素影响,7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3,环比下降 0.4,连续 4 个月低于枯荣线,7 月为 4 个月以来最低;非制造业 PMI 为 50.1,环比下跌 0.4;综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2,环比下降 0.5 个百分点。 7 月份中国战略性新兴产业 EPMI 为 46.8,比上月回落 1.1 个 百分点。服务业健康医疗服务业、新材料产业表现最好。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业:极端天气影响生产 极端天气与反内卷共同作用下,供需两端边际回调,生产指 数扩张幅度下降 0.5 至 50.5,新订单指数大幅下降 0.8,重 回荣枯线以下(49.4),其中新出口订单指数下降 0.6 至 47.1,一定程度受前期抢出口的影响,内需下滑或有 618 的 影响。企业生产经营活动更趋谨慎:进口指标保持 47.8;原 材料库存下降 0 ...
兼评国家生育补贴和7月PMI数据:PMI供需均放缓,“反内卷”提振价格
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-01 02:42
Group 1: National Fertility Subsidy - The national fertility subsidy covers a wider range, with a total subsidy of 10,800 CNY per newborn over three years, compared to a median of 6,600 CNY and an average of 8,700 CNY for local subsidies[3][16] - The first-year budget for the national fertility subsidy is approximately 100 billion CNY, expected to promote the birth of about 330,000 newborns[4][16] - The short-term leverage effect of the subsidy is estimated at 0.9 times, potentially increasing to about 1.4 times in the medium to long term, with a GDP increase of 926 billion CNY in 2025[4][19] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[5][13] - The production PMI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders, new export orders, and imports fell to 49.4%, 47.1%, and 44.7% respectively[5][22] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to boost commodity prices, with July PPI projected to improve slightly to -3.0% year-on-year[5][29] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, indicating a potential continuation of the slowdown in infrastructure investment[6][35] - The service sector remains relatively stable, with a service PMI of 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, and new orders declining to 46.3%[6][42] - Infrastructure investment may be affected by high base effects in Q3 and Q4, requiring policy measures to mitigate the impact[6][35] Group 4: Risks and Economic Outlook - Risks include unexpected policy changes and a potential recession in the U.S. economy[7][45] - The overall economic impact of the fertility subsidy includes direct boosts to consumer spending and indirect effects on child-rearing and housing demand[4][18]
电建铁路公司入列红色警示两个月:因施工现场存在重大安全隐患等
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-08-01 02:24
Group 1 - The core issue is that China Electric Power Construction Group's subsidiary, China Electric Power Construction Railway Investment Group Co., Ltd., has been placed under a red warning by the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau due to significant safety hazards at construction sites that were not rectified on time [1][3] - The warning is effective from July 30, 2025, to September 29, 2025, indicating a serious compliance issue within the construction industry [3] - The company operates under the umbrella of a Fortune Global 500 enterprise and is involved in various infrastructure projects both domestically and internationally, with a total contract amount of approximately 470 billion yuan [5] Group 2 - China Electric Power Construction Railway Investment Group Co., Ltd. was established in 2011 with a registered capital of 600 million yuan and is wholly owned by China Electric Power Construction Group [7] - The company has a total asset value of 30.383 billion yuan as of the end of 2024 and employs nearly 900 people across 42 subordinate units [5]
7月份制造业PMI回落,新动能持续增长——经济总体产出保持扩张
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-01 00:53
Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, production activities maintained expansion, indicating a solid foundation for economic recovery [3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, still in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - The consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI improved slightly to 48%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was at 48.3%, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials in sectors like petroleum and coal processing, as well as black metal smelting, showed significant recovery [2] Business Activity by Company Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained good operational conditions [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, showing continued improvement in business sentiment [2] - The PMI for small enterprises was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points, reflecting weaker business conditions [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather conditions [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was 50%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, while sectors related to travel and consumption showed strong performance with indices above 60% [4] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintained stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating positive outlooks for the second half of the year [4]
21评论丨短期扰动不改经济向好趋势
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-31 22:57
非制造业稳中有进,极端天气影响建筑业景气度回落。非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%,虽较上月下降 0.4个百分点,但仍连续多月位于扩张区间,成为支撑经济稳定的重要力量。受近期部分地区持续高 温、暴雨洪涝灾害等不利因素对建筑业施工带来明显影响,使得建筑业景气度回落,是影响非制造业商 务活动指数下降的主要原因。随着超长期特别国债和地方专项债券的发行使用,加快中央预算内资金对 重点领域的投资,城市更新、水利工程、数字基础设施建设加快推进,建筑业有望保持稳健的扩张势 头。 服务业总体运行稳定,暑期消费带动效应较为显著。服务业商务活动指数位于荣枯线上,整体保持平 稳,存在明显的结构性分化。一方面,受房地产市场仍处于调整阶段的影响,与房地产相关的商务活动 指数普遍低于临界点,景气度偏弱。近期极端天气也对部分服务业带来影响,尤其是户外娱乐业、物流 运输、餐饮业等。另一方面,受暑期假日效应带动,消费市场表现较为活跃,铁路运输、航空运输、文 化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数均高于60%,业务总量快速增长。服务业业务活动预期指数上升到 56.6%,表明服务业整体市场预期走势乐观。 新动能持续增长,部分重点行业表现亮眼,高质量发展持续推 ...
浙江交科: 2025年第二季度建筑业经营情况简报
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-31 16:05
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Transportation Technology Co., Ltd. provides an update on the operational status of its subsidiary, Zhejiang Jiaogong Group Co., Ltd., for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting significant contract values and project progress. Group 1: Order Situation - As of the report date, the total contract amount for ongoing projects is 224.09 billion yuan, with confirmed revenue of 90.87 billion yuan and remaining uncompleted project value of 133.21 billion yuan [1] - The company has secured new contracts in the second quarter, contributing to its overall project pipeline [1] Group 2: Important Project Performance - The performance of key projects shows that the construction progress of the Rui-Cang Expressway (Long-Li to Yong-Tai-Wen) is at 85.90%, with no significant changes in the counterpart's performance capability [1] - The construction progress of the Zhejiang Jiaogong Group's Huanghe Expressway project is at 88.41%, indicating strong execution [2] - The Hang-Jin-Qu Expressway project has a completion rate of 82.66%, with no major issues reported regarding the counterpart's performance capability [2] Group 3: Other Investment Projects - A joint venture project involving multiple companies has been established, with a total investment of approximately 25.377 billion yuan, and the construction contract is yet to be signed [6] - A new energy vehicle and auto parts industrial park project has a total investment of about 3.559 billion yuan, with a construction period of 5 years and an operational period of 20 years [7][8]
首单获批的数据资产ABS发行,华鑫证券落笔“数字金融”大文章
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-31 15:05
Group 1 - The first approved data asset ABS in China, "Huaxin-Xinxin-Data Asset Phase 1 Asset-Backed Special Plan," was issued on July 31, with a scale of 133.7 million yuan and a priority interest rate of 2.0% [1] - The project is seen as a milestone in the financial market, reflecting high recognition of data as a new asset class and a significant breakthrough in financial services for the real economy [2][4] - The underlying assets of the project come from nine companies across various industries, including listed companies and private enterprises, indicating strong credit quality and stable repayment capacity [2][3] Group 2 - The issuance of the Xinxin data ABS coincides with a period of intensive policy releases regarding data elements, aiming to explore the inclusion of data rights into pledgeable intellectual property categories [4] - The successful issuance is a vivid interpretation of Huaxin Securities' service to national strategies, promoting the standardization of data asset recognition and evaluation across regions [4][5] - The deep impact of data asset securitization is expected to support the construction of a unified national data element market, potentially unlocking a trillion-level data asset market for sustainable economic growth [5]