Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has released opinions aimed at enhancing housing quality, emphasizing the development of new construction methods [1] Group 1: New Construction Methods - Accelerate the integration of the construction industry with advanced manufacturing technologies and next-generation information technologies [1] - Promote intelligent construction, green construction, and prefabricated decoration on a broader scale [1] Group 2: Digital Technology and BIM - Expand the application scenarios of digital technology in engineering and advance the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technology throughout the entire process of housing design, construction, and operation [1] - Promote the application of intelligent construction equipment [1] Group 3: Waste Management and Resource Utilization - Accelerate the reduction and resource utilization of construction waste [1] Group 4: Green Building Initiatives - Ensure that all new urban housing is built as green buildings and increase the proportion of high-star green buildings [1] - Promote energy-saving and carbon reduction in building operations and strengthen energy efficiency limit management [1] Group 5: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy - Establish a building energy efficiency grading system and compile carbon emission statistical accounting standards [1] - Promote the electrification of building energy use, conduct integrated photovoltaic pilot projects, and enhance the utilization of renewable energy [1] - Accelerate the transformation of the energy structure used in buildings [1]

核心观点：新动能、消费品行业拉动12月PMI，化债挤出效应缓解、出口韧性也有支撑。 事件： 12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%，非制造业PMI为50.2%、前值49.5%。 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 12月高频指标转弱下，制造业PMI却明显回升。 12月以来，高炉开工、PTA开工、货运量等高频指标均有走弱；但制造业PMI较前月回升0.9个百分点至 50.1%，时隔9个月再次站上荣枯线。其中生产、新订单指数分别较11月回升1.7、1.6个百分点。 支撑一：新动能相关领域PMI明显改善，但缺乏相关高频指标，可持续性需要继续观察。 从行业来看，黑色压延、化学纤维、化学原料等传统行业12月PMI 均有回落，与高炉、PTA开工等回落表现一致。但缺乏开工指标跟踪的电气机械、医药等新兴行业PMI却有回升。大类行业中，高技术、装备制造业PMI均有 改善，分别上行2.4、0.6个百分点至52.5%、50.4%。 支撑二：高频指标未跟踪到的部分消费行业PMI改善，尤其是受需求透支风险影响较小的领域。 12月汽车高频产销 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December increased to 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from 49.2% in November, marking a return to the expansion zone after 9 months[1][7] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[1][7] Group 2: Key Support Factors - New momentum and consumer goods sectors contributed to the PMI rebound, with manufacturing PMI supported by a 1.7 percentage point rise in production and a 1.6 percentage point rise in new orders[2][8] - Emerging industries such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals saw PMI increases of 1.3 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, indicating improvement despite traditional sectors declining[2][11] - The construction PMI rose significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, reflecting a reduction in the crowding-out effect of debt on investment[3][16] - Export resilience was noted, with the new export orders index improving by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, while domestic orders increased by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%[4][20] Group 3: Sector Performance - The overall consumer goods PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, with notable recovery in textiles and apparel, which rose by 4.5 percentage points[3][14] - The service sector PMI improved slightly to 49.7%, with new orders and employment indices showing marginal increases[5][31] - The construction sector's new orders index rose by 1.3 percentage points to 47.4%, indicating a positive trend in demand[5][36] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that economic growth remains resilient, driven by new momentum and supportive fiscal policies, despite traditional sectors facing downward pressure[4][22] - Risks include potential changes in the external environment and the pace of growth policies not meeting expectations[5][38]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first time it has entered the expansion zone since April [8] - The production index reached 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points, and the new orders index increased to 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, indicating significant improvement in manufacturing demand [8] - The new export orders index also improved to 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in external demand [8] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [10] - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.7%, indicating it remains in the contraction zone despite a slight increase [11] - The construction sector showed improvement with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, attributed to favorable weather and policy-driven infrastructure investments [12] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity in December showed signs of recovery, with both domestic and external demand improving due to effective growth stabilization policies [13] - The price indices showed mixed results, with the main raw material purchase price index decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, indicating potential for improved corporate profits [9] - Looking ahead, the manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in the expansion zone into early 2026, supported by ongoing growth policies and a recovering market demand [13][14]

宏观月度报告 中国 PMI 评论报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 亮眼数据迎新年 — 12 月中国 PMI 评论 研究员：王鹏 期货从业证号：F03127257 投资咨询资格编号：Z0020170 第一部分 中国制造业和非制造业 PMI 数据表格回顾】 | | | | | | | | | | | 中国制造业PMI及分项 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标名称 | 制造业PMI | 生产 | | 新订单 | | 新出口订单 | 在手订单 | | 产成品库存 | 采购量 | 进口 | | 出厂价格 | | 主要原材料购进价格 | 原材料库存 | 从业人员 | 供货商配送时间生产经营活动预期 | | | 2025-12 | | 50.1 | 51.7 | | 50.8 | 4 9 | | 4 6 | 48.2 | | 51.1 | 4 7 | | 48.9 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 二是采购量增加、出厂价反弹、预期改善。制造业采购量反弹 1.6 个百分点至 51.1%，原材料库存增 0.5 个 百分点至 47.8%，而原材料购进价回调 0.5 个百分点至 53.1%，反映企业趁着价格涨幅收窄而增加采购、库存降 幅也相应收窄。出厂价反弹 0.7 个百分点至 48.9%，为最近四个月高点。值得注意的是，生产经营预期大幅反弹 2.4 个百分点至 55.5%的高位，是最近 20 个月高点，指向企业对十五五开年预期乐观。 第二，建筑业大幅反弹。12 月建筑业商务活动指数反弹 3.2 个百分点至 52.8%，是下半年最高。统计局解 释主要是受部分南方省份近期气温偏高、以及两节临近企业抢抓施工进度等因素带动。新订单也反弹 1.3 个百分 点至 47.4%，是今年初以来最高，但仍低于荣枯线。而建筑业从业人员分项下跌 0.8 个百分点至 41.0%。从订单 和从业人员来看，建筑业还有修复空间。 第三，服务业也在反弹，但幅度小于制造业和建筑业。12 月服务业 PMI 反弹 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%，连续 第二个月低于 50%。新订单反弹 1.8 个百分点至 47.3%，表现 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - December Manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, indicating a return to expansion territory[2] - New orders index for December was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, with external demand contributing positively[2] - Production index increased to 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points, reflecting improved manufacturing activity[2] - Supplier delivery time index slightly increased to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating stable supply chain conditions[2] Group 2: Investment and Economic Outlook - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to remain promising at the beginning of 2026, despite some weakness in December[3] - December's main raw material purchase price index was at 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating high price levels[9] - The manufacturing profit margin is expanding as factory prices rise while raw material costs slightly decline[9] - Construction sector PMI rose to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activity[15] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - December Non-Manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating expansion[11] - New orders index for non-manufacturing was at 47.3%, up 1.6 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold[11] - Employment index in the non-manufacturing sector was at 46.1%, indicating contraction despite a slight increase of 0.8 percentage points[11]

宏 华福证券 观 研 究 PMI 为何重回扩张？ ——12 月 PMI 数据解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 PMI 表现如何？12 月全国制造业 PMI 显著回升，4 月以来首度升至扩 张区间，持平于过去五年同期中位数水平，构成制造业 PMI 指数的五大分 指数中，新订单、生产、原材料库存指数上升，从业人员指数下降，作为 逆指数的供应商配送时间指数上升。趋势变动情况看，供需同步改善，内 需相对外需走强，需求端库存有所积累，下游利润有所恢复。企业类型看， 大、中型企业景气明显改善，小型企业景气回落。 评 此外，有三点值得关注：一是产需同步修复。一方面是中美吉隆坡经 贸磋商后 11-12 月新出口订单指数连续大幅回升，虽然新出口订单指数尚 在荣枯线下，但新订单指数升至扩张区间；另一方面是生产指数环比改善 幅度超近十年同期，产需同步修复带动制造业 PMI 显著改善。二是出厂价 格相对购进价格改善。11-12 月出厂价格指数连续上升，或指向下游利润分 配出现改善迹象。三是生产经营活动预期指数大幅上升。制造业生产经营 活动预期指数环比升幅在近十年同期中仅低于 2022 年，创下年内新高，在 外部扰动暂时缓和、内部政策定调 ...

证券研究报告—宏观研究报告 撰写日期：2025 年 12 月 31 日 景气重返扩张区间 ——12 月 PMI 数据点评 2025 年 12 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.1%，较上月上升 0.9 个百分点，为 2025 年 4 月以来首次进入扩张区间，显示我国经济景气水平总体回升。从 分项指数看，产需两端同步改善，呈现积极态势。生产指数升至 51.7%，新 订单指数达 50.8%，为 2025 年 7 月以来首次突破荣枯线。产需缺口进一步 收窄，或反映国内市场需求逐步回暖，企业生产意愿随之增强。采购量指数 同步进入扩张区间，反映企业补库意愿有所提升。此外，新出口订单指数延 续回升，反映外贸环境进一步改善。价格端呈现回升态势，主要原材料购进 价格指数连续 6 个月处于扩张区间，表明原材料价格总体水平持续上升。 受原材料价格上涨和需求趋稳的双重带动，出厂价格指数回升至 48.9%，尽 管仍低于临界点，但降势持续收窄，制造业企业盈利空间或有望逐步改善。 供应商配送时间指数延续上升，反映原材料供应商交货效率略有提升，供应 链运行更加顺畅，为生产稳定提供了保障。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 重 返扩张区间，成为制造 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 50.1%, marking the first time since April that it has entered the expansion zone [2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [4] - The Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.7%, reflecting an overall expansion in business activities compared to the previous month [6] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In December, 16 out of 21 surveyed industries reported an increase in PMI, indicating improved production and operational conditions [2] - The Production Index and New Orders Index were recorded at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases from the previous month [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.5%, indicating a positive growth trend in this sector [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index showed a recovery, with the New Orders Index rising to 47.3%, the highest level this year [4] - The Services Business Activity Index was at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery in the service sector, although still below the expansion threshold [4] - The Construction Business Activity Index surged to 52.8%, reflecting a significant improvement in the construction sector's economic conditions [5]