文 ： 华创证券研究所首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1、华创宏观WEI指数震荡回升。 截至12月21日，该指数为5.22%，环比前一周上行0.06个点。 2、地产销售：商品房住宅成交面积同比降幅继续收窄。 我们统计的67个城市，截至12月26日当周， 商品房成交面积同比为-19%。12月前26日累计同比为-26%。11月同比为-34%。 3、基建：石油沥青装置开工率改善 。截至12月24当周，开工率为31.3%，较上周环比回升3.7个点， 较去年同期高5.4个点。 4、价格：铜价、金价、油价均上涨。 COMEX黄金收于4546.2美金/盎司，上涨4.6%；LME三个月铜 价收于12218美元/吨，上涨4.1%；美油收于56.7美元/桶，上涨1.1%，布油收于60.6美元/桶，上涨 1.4% 景气向下 1、耐用品消费：乘用车零售低位运行 。12月第三周，乘用车零售同比增速-11%，前值-17%。12月 前三周累计同比-18.8%。11月全月同比为-8.1%。 2、生产：行业开工率偏弱。 环比来看，江浙织机、全钢胎、P ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度延续回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 12 月 27 日）为 4.9%，与上周修订值 4.8%略有回 升，或表征经济增长景气有所回暖。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周涨跌互现。 从需求端来看，外需仍是最强变量，基建实物工作量小幅改善。 从价格端来看，消费品价格涨跌互现，工业品价格基本持平。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 51 期 乘用车零售降幅收窄 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数震荡。截至 12 月 14 日，该指数为 5.17%，环比 12 月 7 日上行 1.05%。 2、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度降幅有所收窄。12 月第二周，乘用车零售同 比增速-17%，前值-32%。12 月前两周累计同比-24%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 3、价格：三大新能源品种涨幅较大，铜价和金价续涨。工业硅连续合约收盘 价上涨 3.1%，多晶硅连续合约收盘价上涨 6.4%，碳酸锂连续合约收盘价上涨 16.4%。COMEX 黄金收于 4354 美金/盎司，上涨 1.2%；LME 三个月铜价收于 11837 美元/吨，上涨 0.4%。 4、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比抬升。截至 12 月 14 日，我国港口集装箱吞 吐量环比-0.9%，上周环比为-1.8%，四周同比 10.6%，上周为 9.5%。 （二）景气向下 1、生产：多数行业开工率继续回落。环比来看，除唐山高炉外，多数行业持 平或有所回落。同比来看，除唐山高炉、全钢胎外，多数行业弱于去年同期。 2、房价：1 ...

Market Overview - On November 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.95%, the STAR 50 went up by 0.43%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 1.31%, the ChiNext Index gained 1.77%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.69% [5] - The best-performing sectors on November 25 were telecommunications (+3.54%), media (+2.85%), non-ferrous metals (+2.42%), comprehensive (+2.21%), and electronics (+2.14%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-0.32%) and transportation (-0.11%) [5][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on November 25 was 1,826.2 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 11.166 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [5][4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights 吉祥航空 (China's private airline leader) as a key investment opportunity, noting that the airline industry is approaching a supply-demand inflection point. The company's aircraft utilization is expected to recover, and ticket prices are anticipated to rise, leading to potential earnings exceeding expectations [6] - The report suggests that the worst performance period for 吉祥航空 has passed, with a forecast for significant earnings recovery over the next three years. The expected aircraft utilization recovery is projected for 2026-2027, with the introduction of 5-6 new aircraft annually under the 九元 plan [6] - The target price for 吉祥航空 is set at a 20x PE for 2027, corresponding to a target market value of 45.9 billion yuan [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected operating revenue for 吉祥航空 from 2025 to 2027 is 22,044 million yuan, 23,196 million yuan, and 24,940 million yuan, with growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 8% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,007 million yuan, 1,571 million yuan, and 2,294 million yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 56%, and 46% respectively [7] - The earnings per share are expected to be 0.46 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 1.05 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 27.09, 17.36, and 11.89 [7] Important Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that the GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index was at 4.7% as of November 22, remaining stable compared to the previous week [8] - The report emphasizes that traditional economic indicators may not accurately reflect the current economic structure transformation, suggesting a need for updated measurement methods [8]

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index remains in the expansion zone, showing a slight recovery, indicating a transition towards normalization in economic conditions[1] - The industrial added value for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a monthly growth of 4.9% in October[2] - The production sentiment index significantly rebounded this week, becoming a key driver for the composite index[1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) showed slight growth, with a 1.7% increase when excluding real estate development investment[2] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, while high-tech industry investment continued to thrive, with information services and aerospace manufacturing investments increasing by 32.7% and 19.7% respectively[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 6.3%[3] Global Economic Context - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5% as of September, exceeding market expectations, indicating a cooling labor market[7] - Germany's consumer price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year in October, consistent with market expectations[7] - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, with an estimated GDP loss of about 1.5% for Q4 2025 due to the shutdown's impact on economic activities[8]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index decreased to 4.37% as of November 2, 2025, down 0.45 percentage points from the previous week[7] - Subway passenger volume in 26 cities increased by 7% year-on-year in the first six days of November, compared to a 0.8% increase in October[10] - Retail sales of passenger cars surged by 47% year-on-year from October 27 to 31, recovering from a previous decline of 9%[10] Trade and Exports - Port container throughput rebounded with a 13.8% increase week-on-week as of November 2, 2025, compared to a previous decline of 8.2%[25] - The four-week year-on-year growth rate for port container throughput rose to 8.2%, up from 6.6% the previous week[25] - The number of outbound vessels from the top twenty ports increased by 3.4% year-on-year in early November[30] Real Estate and Construction - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities fell by 43% year-on-year in the first week of November, worsening from a 26% decline in October[13] - The cement shipment rate was 37.1% as of October 31, 2025, down 0.3% from the previous week[15] - Second-hand housing prices continued to decline, with first-tier cities down 0.3% and a cumulative drop of 3.9% year-to-date[45] Commodity Prices - Domestic and international commodity prices continued to decline, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index down 0.5%[43] - LME three-month copper price fell by 1.6% to $10,744 per ton, while Brent crude oil dropped by 2.2% to $63.6 per barrel[43] - Pork prices increased by 2.4% and vegetable prices rose by 1.6%[44]

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of November 8 is 4.7%, slightly down from the revised value of 5.0% last week, indicating a slowdown in economic growth[10] - The service and industrial high-frequency indicators have both declined compared to last week[12] Production Sector - The industrial weekly prosperity index has decreased to 8.0% from 8.2%[11] - The service sector's weekly prosperity index has dropped to 2.9% from 3.4%[11] Demand Sector - Overall consumption and fixed asset investment have weakened, while exports have shown resilience, with container throughput rising to 671.8 thousand TEUs from 590.3 thousand TEUs last week, marking a significant increase[55] - The real estate market has seen a significant decline, with new home sales in 30 major cities dropping to 120.2 million square meters, a 43% decrease week-on-week and a 49% year-on-year decline[48] Price Trends - Consumer prices for agricultural products have shown a marginal increase, with the agricultural wholesale price index rising by 0.76% week-on-week[61] - The average price of pork has increased by 0.78% week-on-week, while the prices of key vegetables have risen by 2.16%[61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the commodity index rose and then fell, with both industrial and agricultural products weakening. The main reason for the decline from the high was the weak fundamentals and prominent supply - demand contradictions of most commodities, despite positive macro sentiment [4]. - The US economy showed resilience in 25Q2, with the revised real GDP seasonally - adjusted quarterly - on - quarterly annualized rate up 0.3 percentage points to 3.3% and the year - on - year growth rate up 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to make the contribution of private non - residential investment to real GDP year - on - year more prominent [4]. - US inflation pressure rebounded in July, with the core PCE year - on - year growth rate reaching 2.9%. The Fed needs to balance inflation control and employment market risks when considering interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a rate cut in September [4]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased again, but the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August dropped to 58.2, indicating weakened consumer confidence [4]. - Japan's Tokyo core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% in August, and the year - on - year growth rate of commodity retail sales in July dropped by 1.7 percentage points to 0.2%, showing weak domestic demand [4]. - China's manufacturing PMI index rebounded slightly in August, indicating improved economic sentiment, but it has been in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. The service PMI index rebounded more significantly and remained above the boom - bust line. The capital market is expected to inject vitality into the service industry and the overall economy in the third quarter [4]. - The slight recovery of industrial enterprise profits in July in China was due to the governance of disorderly price competition and the reduction of operating costs. However, effective domestic demand is still insufficient, and enterprise revenue growth is declining [4]. - Commodities are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the game between expectations and reality. They are supported by macro expectations but face pressure from weak real - world supply - demand contradictions, especially in the real estate chain and the crude - oil sector [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US GDP in 25Q2**: The revised seasonally - adjusted quarterly - on - quarterly annualized rate of real GDP was 3.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the initial value, and the year - on - year growth rate was 2.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points. The contribution of private non - residential investment to real GDP year - on - year is expected to be more prominent [4][8]. - **US PCE in July**: The core PCE year - on - year growth rate reached 2.9%, mainly affected by rising service costs and tariff cost transmission. The Fed needs to balance inflation control and employment market risks when considering interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a rate cut in September [4][11]. - **US Initial Jobless Claims and Consumer Confidence**: The number of initial jobless claims decreased again, but the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August dropped to 58.2, the first decline in four months, indicating weakened consumer confidence [4][14]. - **Japan's CPI and Retail Sales**: Japan's Tokyo core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% in August. The year - on - year growth rate of commodity retail sales in July dropped by 1.7 percentage points to 0.2%, the lowest since March 2022, showing weak domestic demand [4][17]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **China's PMI in August**: The manufacturing PMI index rebounded slightly, with most sub - indicators improving, indicating improved economic sentiment. However, it has been in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. The service PMI index rebounded more significantly and remained above the boom - bust line, and the capital market is expected to inject vitality into the service industry and the overall economy in the third quarter [4][22]. - **China's Industrial Enterprise Profits in July**: The slight recovery was due to the governance of disorderly price competition and the reduction of operating costs. However, effective domestic demand is still insufficient, and enterprise revenue growth is declining [4][25]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: On August 29, the开工率 of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 70%, that of POY was 86%, and that of weaving was 62%. The national blast furnace开工率 (247) was 83.18% [32]. - **Automobile Sales**: From August 1 to 31, the year - on - year growth rates of automobile factory wholesale and retail were 2.8% and 9.2% respectively; from August 1 to 22, the year - on - year growth rates were 6.2% and 2.0% respectively [39]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: On August 29, the price increase rates of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables, pork, and 6 kinds of key - monitored fruits were 1.74%, 0.78%, and 0.67% respectively compared with the previous day, and 0.49% compared with the previous week [40].

Market Overview - On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.88%, the STAR 50 surged by 2.14%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 1.69%, and the ChiNext Index jumped by 2.84%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.37% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on August 18 were telecommunications (+4.46%), comprehensive (+3.43%), computer (+3.33%), electronics (+2.48%), and defense industry (+2.4%). The worst-performing sectors included real estate (-0.46%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.1%), non-ferrous metals (+0.14%), construction decoration (+0.17%), and coal (+0.3%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on August 18 was 28,091 billion, with a net inflow of 1.386 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index for the week ending August 16 was 5.7%, remaining stable compared to the revised value of 5.7% from the previous week, indicating relative stability in economic growth [5] - The driving factors for this stability include updates to weekly data, with no significant changes in perspectives noted [5]

Core Viewpoint - The economic prosperity in Shanghai is on the rise, driven by the acceleration of three leading industries, which is expected to contribute significantly to both Shanghai's and the national economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - In the first half of the year, Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 826.041 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, an increase of 2.8% compared to the first quarter [1] - The retail sales of goods increased by 2.4% year-on-year, supported by the effectiveness of the consumer goods replacement policy [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The information service industry in Shanghai saw a revenue increase of 20.4% year-on-year, which is 6.1% higher than the national average and 5.9% higher than the growth rate in the first quarter [1] - The growth in integrated circuit design and platform economy is highlighted as a key factor in the acceleration of the three leading industries [1]