证券研究报告 锦浪科技 (300763 CH) 去库影响需求，电站业务表现亮眼 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 电力设备与新能源 | 公司 24 年收入 65.42 亿元，同比+7.23%，归母净利 6.91 亿元，同比 -11.32%，扣非净利 6.37 亿元，同比-18.94%，归母净利低于我们此前 11.55 亿的预期，主要系海外光储去库影响需求；25Q1 收入 15.18 亿元，同比 +8.65%，归母净利 1.95 亿元，同/环比+860%/+774%，主要系电站收入同 比提升。公司位列逆变器第一梯队产品力突出，维持"增持"评级。 24Q4 业绩受去库拖累，25Q1 电站收入拉动增长 公司 24Q4 收入 13.81 亿元，同/环比-5.40%/-23.57%，归母净利 0.22 亿 元，同/环比-19.99%/-92.96%，主要系海外去库拖累。公司 24Q4 毛利率/ 净利率达 23.72%/1.61%，环比-12.71/-15.91pct，24Q4 期间费用率达 21.78%， ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the inverter, photovoltaic, and electrical equipment industries, with specific emphasis on the performance of companies like Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. [1][4] Key Points and Arguments Sungrow Power's Performance - Sungrow Power's Q1 revenue reached 3.8 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 800 million RMB, driven by strong exports to the U.S. and Middle Eastern markets [2][4] - Despite the strong performance, a decline in year-on-year comparisons is expected in Q2 and Q3 due to high export ratios to the U.S. in the previous year, leading to potential short-term stock price volatility [1][4] Market Dynamics - The European inverter market is recovering after a destocking phase, with demand expected to increase starting in March [1][5] - Asian and African markets are showing stable growth, with March figures indicating a year-on-year increase of over 10% in Asia and 80% in Africa [2][5] - Southeast Asia and South Asia are experiencing worsening electricity shortages, which is likely to drive demand for solar storage systems [1][2] Export Data - In March, the export value of photovoltaic modules was approximately 2.4-2.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline due to delays caused by the Spring Festival [1][6] - The transformer export total for January to March was 12.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, with large power grid transformers seeing a growth rate of 54.4% [3][10] - High-voltage switchgear exports in the same period reached 8.487 billion RMB, growing by 30% year-on-year [12] Future Outlook - Q2 is identified as a favorable investment window for the inverter and energy storage sectors, with many companies reporting good order conditions [1][8] - The export of electrical equipment is expected to maintain high levels of prosperity through March 2025, with transformers showing particularly strong performance in North America and Asia [9][14] Impact of Tariffs - U.S. tariffs have a limited impact on the profitability of electrical equipment like meters and high-voltage switches, but they affect market sentiment for export-oriented companies [15][16] - Companies with established global supply chains, such as Jinpan Technology and Igor, are less affected by U.S. tariffs due to their production facilities in Mexico and the U.S. [15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on non-U.S. export-oriented electrical equipment companies, such as Sifang Co., Ltd., Samsung Medical, and Huaming Equipment, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing trade dynamics [17] - Companies linked to IDEC, particularly in the Southeast Asian data center sector, are also recommended for investment consideration [17] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the inverter and electrical equipment markets remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by both domestic and international demand [1][2][5] - Monitoring future export data, particularly for photovoltaic components, is crucial for assessing market potential [6][7]

智通财经APP获悉，平安证券发布研报称，一季度逆变器出口需求略增，亚非新兴市场表现强劲，推荐 新兴市场户储赛道领先企业。户用光储逆变器企业主要布局的市场包括欧洲和新兴市场，美国户储市场 参与者以本土企业为主，国内企业所占份额相对较小。美国对等关税政策对户用光储企业影响幅度相对 较小，加之亚非新兴市场需求快速增长，相关企业具有关注价值。 2025年1-3月，我国出口欧洲逆变器42.3亿元，同/环比分别-5%/-10%。3月单月出口金额17.7亿元，同环 比分别+6%/+64%。荷兰和德国是我国逆变器出口欧洲的两大主要市场，一季度出口金额分别占欧洲市 场的40%和18%。荷兰是欧洲重要的出口中转地，产品发往欧洲各国;德国是欧洲户储的主要市场，户储 渗透率较高。一季度，我国出口荷兰的逆变器金额17.1亿元，同比-5%;出口德国、英国的逆变器金额分 别为7.8/2.8亿元，同比分别+36%/+28%。1-3月，德国户储装机同比减少，但大储装机快速增长。欧洲 高比例风光装机对电力系统的冲击正在凸显，大储装机的重要性有望提升，欧洲大储需求潜力可期。 欧洲：3月单月需求改善，德国、英国大储可期 拉美、非洲：非洲市场增长，拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinlang Technology is facing challenges with declining net profits and financial conditions, prompting attention from the market regarding its refinancing efforts [1][5]. Financing and Business Strategy - Jinlang Technology, a leading inverter manufacturer, has announced plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 1.694 billion yuan, targeting projects in distributed photovoltaic power stations and high-voltage inverters [3][5]. - The company has previously raised approximately 4.546 billion yuan through two private placements and one convertible bond from December 2020 to January 2023 [3]. - The new financing aims to optimize the structure of core products, expand into diversified businesses, and alleviate financial pressure [3][5]. Financial Performance and Challenges - Jinlang Technology's total liabilities have increased from 4.071 billion yuan at the end of 2021 to 13.55 billion yuan by September 2024, primarily due to growth in sales and production [5]. - The company's long-term borrowings have also risen, with non-current liabilities increasing from 30.01% at the end of 2021 to 62.21% by September 2024 [5]. - The liquidity ratios have shown a declining trend, with the current ratio decreasing from 0.96 in 2021 to 0.73 in 2023, although it rebounded to 1.06 by September 2024 [5]. Market Position and Global Expansion - Jinlang Technology's revenue growth has slowed significantly, with a 3.59% increase in 2023 compared to over 70% in 2022, and a 26.46% decline in net profit [8][9]. - The company has been recognized as one of the top three global photovoltaic inverter manufacturers, with significant international sales contributing to its revenue [10][11]. - In 2023, overseas revenue accounted for 39.52% of total revenue, increasing to 42.30% in the first half of 2024, indicating a strong global market presence [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating a projected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [48]. Core Insights - In March 2025, the export value of inverters from China reached 4.52 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 39.37% and a year-on-year growth of 6.22%, indicating a significant recovery in exports [2][15]. - Cumulative exports for the first three months of 2025 amounted to 12.152 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.06%, demonstrating stable market performance [2][15]. - The Asian market remains robust, with inverter exports in March 2025 amounting to 1.650 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 38.10% and a year-on-year increase of 12.28% [3][16]. - The European market is showing signs of recovery, with exports reaching 1.773 billion yuan in March 2025, a month-on-month increase of 63.70% and a year-on-year increase of 6.05% [4][26]. - North America has also seen a notable recovery, with exports to the region amounting to 207 million yuan in March 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 135.64% and a year-on-year increase of 26.39% [5][32]. - The African market is performing steadily, with exports reaching 363 million yuan in March 2025, a month-on-month increase of 9.87% and a year-on-year increase of 83.03% [10][33]. Summary by Sections Global Overview - The overall export value of inverters in March 2025 shows a significant month-on-month recovery and stable year-on-year growth [15][34]. Regional Performance - **Asia**: The Asian market is experiencing high demand, particularly from emerging markets like India and Pakistan, with significant year-on-year growth in inverter exports [3][16]. - **Europe**: The European market is recovering, with notable increases in exports to Germany and the UK, while exports to the Netherlands and Poland have decreased [4][26]. - **North America**: The North American market is showing strong recovery, particularly in exports to the United States [5][32]. - **Africa**: The African market is stable, with high growth rates in South Africa and Nigeria [10][33]. Export by Origin - In March 2025, the provinces of Guangdong and Zhejiang showed significant year-on-year growth in inverter exports, benefiting from the recovery in the household storage market [11][41]. Investment Recommendations - Long-term growth in global renewable energy installations and increasing demand for energy storage solutions are expected to drive market growth. Key regions include Europe, the United States, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa [12][46].

Group 1: Company Performance - Western Gold achieved operating revenue of 7.001 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 56.68%, and net profit of 290 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [1] - Jihong Co. reported operating revenue of 5.529 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, with net profit down 47.28% to 182 million yuan [2] - Sanli Co. achieved operating revenue of 227 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.35%, but reported a net loss of 49.88 million yuan, narrowing the loss by 56.50% [2] - Sanli Co. reported operating revenue of 2.590 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.25%, with net profit of 68.09 million yuan, up 59.07% [4] - Huaiqi Mountain achieved operating revenue of 1.631 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.60%, with net profit of 196 million yuan, up 17.74% [6] - Huayuan Holdings reported operating revenue of 2.449 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.60%, with net profit of 70.74 million yuan, up 739% [8] - Hangfa Power achieved operating revenue of 47.880 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.48%, but net profit decreased by 39.48% to 860 million yuan [10] - Zhongcai Energy reported operating revenue of 2.324 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.21%, with net profit down 94.70% to 760,240 yuan [10] - Longxing Technology achieved operating revenue of 4.355 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, with net profit of 142 million yuan, up 28.70% [11] - Jinying Co. reported operating revenue of 1.308 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.52%, with net profit down 36.73% to 22.35 million yuan [12] - Zhujiang Co. achieved operating revenue of 1.558 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 52.38%, but net profit turned to profit at 15.57 million yuan [12] - Chuanwang Media reported operating revenue of 288 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.05%, but net profit decreased by 24.02% to 23.80 million yuan [13] - Ronglian Technology achieved operating revenue of 2.022 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.91%, with net profit of 28.11 million yuan, up 107.87% [13] - Oufeiguang reported operating revenue of 20.437 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.19%, but net profit decreased by 24.09% to 58.38 million yuan [14] Group 2: Dividend Proposals - Western Gold proposed a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares [1] - Jihong Co. proposed a cash dividend of 1.58 yuan per 10 shares [2] - Sanli Co. proposed a cash dividend of 1.50 yuan per 10 shares [4] - Huaiqi Mountain proposed a cash dividend of 4.00 yuan per 10 shares [6] - Huayuan Holdings proposed a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Hangfa Power proposed a cash dividend of 0.97 yuan per 10 shares [10] - Zhongcai Energy proposed a cash dividend of 0.05 yuan per 10 shares [10] - Longxing Technology proposed a cash dividend of 1.20 yuan per 10 shares [11] - Jinying Co. proposed a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares [12] - Zhujiang Co. proposed a cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares [12] - Chuanwang Media proposed a cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares [13] - Ronglian Technology proposed a cash dividend of 0.0425 yuan per share [13] - Oufeiguang proposed a cash dividend of 0.0178 yuan per share [14]

文 ｜ 刘春彤 裘翔 ▍ 风险因素： 亮马组合是基于策略聚焦观点和行业研究精选推荐，遴选出的月度金股组合。本篇报告为2 0 2 5年 第4期，更新中信证券4月1 0大金股组合。时点上，关注4月初外部不确定性因素落地后的交易性机 会。配置上，我们建议从科技点火、供给侧反内卷、内续补短板角度，关注产业逻辑清晰的几大方 向：国产算力、端侧AI、创新药、新能源、可选消费等。此外，我们也在红利、制造等方向选择 了部分优质标的，以实现组合配置多元化。 中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策或经济复苏不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期 收紧等 ▍ 本期更新中信证券2 0 2 5年4月金股组合。 。 ▍ 板块配置：外部风险落地后，聚焦产业逻辑清晰的绩优成长股。 关键时点是4月初外部风险落地，包括美国优先贸易政策备忘录调查结果公布以及"对等关税"加 征方式和范围的明朗。从风险落地后的进攻方向上看，经过3月大幅调整且持续有催化的科技主 题，因其弱宏观关联和强产业催化，预计会成为4 - 5月占优方向。资金面角度，增量资金或来自 前期高切低回补、仓位回补及部分追逐港股的趋势资金回流。科技领域建议延续端侧AI+国产算 力的主线配置， ...

Core Viewpoint - The inverter sector is experiencing a recovery in sentiment, driven by expectations of a shift in market trading styles, fundamental turning points, and valuation corrections [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends and Expectations - Short-term focus is on the anticipated shift in market trading styles, fundamental turning points, and valuation corrections, while long-term views suggest that the industry logic is not deflationary, with potential for technological premiums in networked energy storage and AIDC [2] - The inverter sector has faced pressure on performance and valuation since 2024, nearing historical lows, but is expected to see a turnaround in 2025 Q1 due to sustained overseas large-scale storage demand and improved domestic orders and shipments [2][3] Group 2: Performance and Valuation Insights - In 2024 Q4, the U.S. installed capacity for energy storage reached a record high of 3.4 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 37%, and projections for 2025 Q1 suggest a further increase to 4.3 GW, doubling year-on-year [3] - The market is expected to see significant performance improvements for domestic companies in the second quarter of 2025, as channel inventory continues to decrease and seasonal impacts from Q1 fade [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Current PE valuations for storage companies are generally below the historical 30th percentile, indicating significant potential for performance improvement post-2025 Q2 due to policy stimuli and industry recovery [6] - The inverter sector is identified as a high-probability investment opportunity during the performance vacuum period in April, with recommendations to focus on undervalued leading companies and those with significant fundamental recovery potential [6]

Group 1: Power Equipment Exports - In January-February 2025, inverter exports met expectations, with good year-on-year growth in Asia [3] - Transformer exports showed rapid year-on-year growth in Asia, Europe, North America, and South America [3] - The export of electric meters performed well in Africa and South America, while high-voltage switch exports also saw significant year-on-year growth in Europe, North America, and South America [3] - The power equipment export sector shows a degree of sustainability, and current valuations of related stocks are low, suggesting a medium to long-term investment opportunity [3] Group 2: Internet Media Sector - Zhi Zi Cheng Technology reported a revenue of 5.092 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 53.9%, driven by strong performance in its social business [4] - The company achieved a gross profit of 2.608 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 51.2%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9 percentage points [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 480 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, but a 36% increase when excluding one-time investment income from the acquisition of Lan Cheng Brothers [4] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - Huafa Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 59.99 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8% [5] - The gross margin for real estate development was 14.3%, down 3.67 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.2%, primarily due to decreased gross margins and asset impairments [5] Group 4: Vanadium Industry - The installation of vanadium batteries is expected to see significant growth, with multiple all-vanadium flow battery projects recently starting bidding processes [6] - Projects include a 100MW/400MWh design and construction contract for various locations, indicating a robust demand for vanadium in energy storage [6] - The overall installation capacity of all-vanadium flow batteries is projected to maintain high growth in 2025 [6] Group 5: Agricultural Sector - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.881 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 4.263 billion yuan in the previous year [7] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 41.172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.61%, with a net profit of 7.4 billion yuan [7] Group 6: Retail Sector - Miniso reported a revenue of 16.99 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [8] - The adjusted net profit was 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [8] - The company has focused on enhancing inventory management and optimizing store stocking accuracy, while also improving operational efficiency overseas [8] Group 7: Health Supplements Sector - Tongchen Beijian reported a revenue of 6.838 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.3% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 653 million yuan, down 62.62% year-on-year [9] - In Q4 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 31.99%, with a net loss of 216 million yuan [9]