铜周报 降息预期回落，铜价高位调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 11 月 24 日 ⚫ 上周铜价高位调整，主因美国非农数据超预期打压12月降 息前景，部分官员表示为了支持就业市场而降低利率可能 会延长高通胀周期，美元指数反弹承压金属市场。基本面 来看，印尼Grasberg有望将于2026年二季度复产，全球精 矿短期维持紧缺，国内精铜产量下滑，社会库存区间震荡 运行，高铜价对传统终端消费略有抑制，近月盘面转向C 结构。 ⚫ 整体来看，美国超预期的非农表现令年底降息进一步降 温，而全球科技股估值过高及AI泡沫破裂的风险令海 ...

Core Insights - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in October 2025 reached 2,451,487.80 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 5.24% but a year-on-year increase of 6.08% [1] - Major supplying countries such as Chile, Peru, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan showed varying degrees of recovery in their shipments, while supplies from other countries generally declined [1] - The current spot processing fee for domestic copper concentrate hovers around -40 USD per dry ton, indicating that the tight supply situation remains difficult to alleviate [1] Import Sources - The data regarding China's main sources of copper ore imports since March 2020 is available from the General Administration of Customs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian government plans to auction mining rights for 120 gold and copper mining areas, allowing participation from both the private sector and foreign investors [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Iranian Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade is facilitating the sale of mining rights for 120 mining areas [1] - The initiative aims to attract both domestic and foreign investment in the mining sector [1] Group 2: Market Development - The Ministry is also exploring the possibility of trading mineral resources as commodities on exchanges [1]

【文/观察者网 陶立烽】 横亘在非洲南部两国、长达1860公里的坦赞铁路，西方人当年叫它"竹子铁路"（bamboo railway），意 思是不靠谱。1976年它开始运营时，连接了赞比亚的铜矿和坦桑尼亚的达累斯萨拉姆港。50年过去，铁 轨锈蚀，列车晃晃悠悠，远未满负荷运转。现在它要复活了。 1965年11月11日改变了一切。那天当时的英国殖民地罗德西亚（现津巴布韦）的白人总理伊恩·史密斯 宣布单方面独立，同时拒绝把权力交给黑人。赞比亚是内陆国家，出海只能走罗得西亚的铁路。史密斯 想用这个卡住黑人掌权的赞比亚，逼它别支持罗德西亚的黑人解放运动。 赞比亚总统卡翁达和支持反殖民运动的坦桑尼亚总统尼雷尔很清楚这意味着什么。赞比亚的铜要运出 去，就得走罗得西亚和南非的港口。被人掐着脖子，谈不上独立。赞比亚需要另一条出海通道——从东 边走，通向印度洋。 当地时间11月20日下午，中、坦、赞领导人再次聚首，在赞比亚首都卢萨卡共同出席坦赞铁路激活项目 开工仪式。 一年多前，中、坦、赞元首在北京共同见证签署《坦赞铁路激活项目谅解备忘录》。一个多月前，中国 土木工程集团于9月29日签下协议，11亿美元先期投资，再追加2.38亿美 ...

中方今年6月宣布，愿通过商签共同发展经济伙伴关系协定，落实对53个非洲建交国实施100%税目产品 零关税举措。这一决定受到好评，"更远的非洲"网站评论说，这显著扩展了免税对象，中国在非洲国家 面临贸易不稳定环境时提供了包容、可预测的贸易政策，成为非洲工业和经济转型的重要伙伴。 除了在贸易领域的各项合作，坦赞铁路的动向也受到赞比亚国内关注。赞比亚ZNBC网站18日报道称， 预计坦赞铁路激活项目的奠基仪式将在中国总理访问期间举行。希奇莱马表示，坦赞铁路激活项目对赞 比亚意义重大，"就像上世纪70年代一样"。 2024年，中坦赞三国元首共同见证《坦赞铁路激活项目谅解备忘录》的签署。今年9月，坦赞铁路激活 项目签约仪式在北京举行。据悉，升级完成后坦赞铁路的年货运能力有望提升至240万吨，运输时间将 缩短近2/3。 【环球时报驻肯尼亚、南非特派特约记者 黄炜鑫 董嘉怡 环球时报记者 王琪】当地时间19日，应赞比亚 政府邀请，国务院总理李强乘包机抵达卢萨卡国际机场，开始对赞比亚进行正式访问。"中国总理对赞 比亚进行历史性访问。"路透社称，这是时隔28年，赞比亚再次迎来中国总理。赞比亚媒体高度关注此 次访问，并透露赞中双方 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Rio Tinto's iron ore profit margin is projected to decline from 81% in 2023 to 48% in 2026, indicating a significant shift in revenue sources as global steel demand decreases [1] - The copper business of Rio Tinto has shown substantial growth, with EBITDA reaching $3.105 billion in the first half of 2025, a 69% increase year-on-year, and now accounting for over 20% of the group's EBITDA [3] - BHP's copper production reached a record 2.017 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year, marking a 28% increase from the previous year, with copper contributing 45% to the group's EBITDA [3][5] Group 2: Company Strategies and Investments - BHP plans to invest between $7.3 billion and $9.8 billion for technological upgrades and new concentrator plants, aiming to stabilize copper production at around 1.4 million tons annually by 2031 [5] - Rio Tinto's key copper assets include the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia and the Escondida mine in Chile, with plans to expand copper resources significantly through various projects [6] - Vale's copper production is expected to grow, with a target of reaching 700,000 tons annually by 2030, reflecting the increasing focus on copper as a strategic asset [7] Group 3: Market Trends and Demand - The demand for copper is surging due to its applications in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers, prompting mining companies to invest heavily in copper assets [9] - Despite a stable demand for iron ore, the supply is slightly increasing, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics as companies explore copper resources in various regions [9]

Core Insights - African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) is evaluating a partnership with Newmont Corporation to develop a large copper mining project in Papua New Guinea, with potential investments reaching $4-5 billion [1] Investment Strategy - The company is currently making significant investments in Papua New Guinea and has established a partnership with Newmont [1] - The majority of the funding will be allocated to Australia and Papua New Guinea, which are key copper mining regions [1] Long-term Vision - The investment in Papua New Guinea is viewed as a long-term strategy, aligning with global trends of decarbonization and increasing demand for critical minerals [1]

Core Points - The Chilean presidential and parliamentary elections held on November 16 resulted in leftist candidate Jeannette Jara and far-right candidate José Antonio Kast advancing to a runoff on December 14, as neither secured over 50% of the votes in the first round [1][2] - The election reflects a significant rightward shift in Chilean politics, with approximately 70% of voters supporting right-leaning candidates, indicating a potential change in the political landscape after decades of leftist dominance in Congress [2][3] Political Context - The elections will determine 155 members of the lower house and about half of the Senate, with investors closely monitoring the possibility of a right-wing majority in Congress, which has been predominantly left-leaning since 1990 [2] - The current political climate is influenced by rising crime rates and immigration issues, leading to a shift in voter sentiment and preferences [2][3] Candidate Positions - José Antonio Kast has capitalized on public concerns regarding crime and immigration, labeling undocumented immigrants as a "national security threat" and proposing strict border control measures similar to those of former U.S. President Trump [3] - Kast's platform includes comprehensive reforms to combat organized crime and promises tighter fiscal policies and market-friendly measures to restore confidence in the Chilean economy, which has seen growth rates slightly above 2% in recent years [3] Economic Implications - Chile is part of the "lithium triangle" in Latin America, possessing about one-third of the world's known lithium reserves and a quarter of copper reserves, critical for electric vehicle battery production [4] - A potential victory for Kast could lead to significant domestic policy changes and strengthen Chile's cooperation with the United States, as he has expressed admiration for Trump's policies [4] Regional Impact - The current situation poses a challenge not only for the left in Chile but also for leftist movements across Latin America, with recent elections in Argentina and Bolivia indicating a shift towards more market-friendly governance [4]

2025年前九个月，销售收入同比增加100%至9.254亿美元。净溢利为3.446亿美元，较2024年同期的净亏 损300万美元增加3.476亿美元。黄金总产量由2024年同期的102,245盎司增加27%至129,350盎司。铜总 产量为1.193亿磅(约54,127吨)，较2024年同期的6150万磅(约27,909吨)增加。 中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)发布公告，2025年第三季度，销售收入同比增加36%至3.45亿美元。净 溢利为1.423亿美元，同比增长410.0%，连续两个季度创单季度历史新高。黄金总产量由2024年同期的 50,160盎司减少18%至41,150盎司。铜总产量为4230万磅(约19,204吨)，较2024年同期的3830万磅(约 17,361吨)增加。 公司董事长兼首席执行官侯晨光先生评论说："我们连续两个季度创下单季净利润新高，这不仅印证了 我们战略决策的前瞻性，也反映出公司运营效率的显著提升。在全体员工的共同努力和不懈追求下，中 国黄金国际将把握机遇，持续提升行业地位和市场价值。" ...

公司董事长兼首席执行官侯晨光先生评论说："我们连续两个季度创下单季净利润新高，这不仅印证了 我们战略决策的前瞻性，也反映出公司运营效率的显着提升。在全体员工的共同努力和不懈追求下，中 国黄金国际将把握机遇，持续提升行业地位和市场价值。" 2025年前九个月，销售收入同比增加100%至9.254亿美元；矿山经营盈利为4.741亿美元，较2024年同期 的6480万美元增加4.093亿美元；净溢利为3.446亿美元，较2024年同期的净亏损300万美元增加3.476亿 美元。黄金总产量由2024年同期的102,245盎司增加27%至129,350盎司。铜总产量为1.193亿磅(约54,127 吨)，较2024年同期的6150万磅(约27,909吨)增加。 格隆汇11月14日丨中国黄金国际(02099.HK)发布公告，2025年第三季度，销售收入同比增加36%至3.45 亿美元；矿山经营盈利为1.97亿美元，较2024年同期的矿山经营盈利4680万美元增加1.502亿美元；净溢 利为1.423亿美元，较2024年同期的2790万美元相比增加1.144亿美元，连续两个季度创单季度历史新 高。黄金总产量由2024年同期 ...