研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 【建信期货研究发展部】 宏观金融研究团队 021-60635739 有色金属研究团队 021-60635734 黑色金属研究团队 021-60635736 石油化工研究团队 021-60635738 农业产品研究团队 021-60635732 量化策略研究团队 021-60635726 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜再创历史新高，现货涨 715 至 92300，铜价持 ...

中国11月主要大宗商品进口呈现鲜明分化态势，关键农产品与高端制造业相关产品表现强劲，成品油、天然气进口则呈现"量增价跌"特征，铜 矿"量价齐增"，煤炭"量价齐跌"。 12月7日，海关总署公布的数据显示，11月份，我国货物贸易增速回升，进出口总值3.9万亿元，增长4.1%。其中，出口2.35万亿元，增长5.7%； 进口1.55万亿元，增长1.7%。 进口端，大宗商品呈现复杂的"量价分离"态势。一方面，集成电路、大豆及铜矿砂等关乎制造业升级与粮食安全的产品进口量价齐升或量增价 稳；另一方面，能源进口出现明显分化：成品油与天然气进口量分别增长4.07% 和10.67%，但进口金额却分别下降2.85% 和5.40%，凸显"量增价 跌"的格局。同期，机电产品作为高技术代表，前11个月进口额保持5.5% 的稳健增长。 关键矿物出口中，11月中国稀土出口环比激增26.5%。 | | | | 中国11月主要进口大宗商品 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 进口量:万吨(集成电路单位为亿个 | | | 2025年11月份 | 202 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月8日 证监许可【2011】1288号 11月份，中国出口机电产品2059亿美元，同比增长9.7%，1-11 月累计同比增长8.0%，去年全年增长7.5%。1-11月高新技术产品出 口同比增长6.6%，去年全年增长4.8%。1-11月集成电路出口同比增 长24.7%，去年全年增长17.4%。前11个月出口汽车（包括底盘）同 比增长16.7%，去年全年增长15.5%。前11个月出口船舶同比增长26. 8%，去年全年增长57.3%。前11个月出口家电同比下降3.6%，去年 全年增长14.1%。前11个月出口手机同比下降11.2%，去年全年下降 3.1%。前11个月出口箱包及类似容器同比下降13.5%，去年全年下降 3.2%。前11个月出口玩具同比下降12.1%，去年全年下降1.7%。前1 1个月出口服装及衣着附件同比下降4.4%，去年全年增长0.3%。前1 1个月出口家具及零件同比下降5.9%，去年全年增长5.8%。今年中国 出口更高科技含量产品和传统优势出口产品的增长速度明显分化。 11月位于中国进口金额前列的还是集成电路和大宗商品。11月中 国进 ...

数据来源：海关总署 出口方面，中国11月未锻轧铝及铝材出口量为 57.0万吨，1-11月累计出口量为558.9万吨，同比下滑9.2%。 海关总署网站12月8日发布数据显示，中国11月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为252.6万吨，1-11月累计进口量为2,761.4万 吨，同比增加8.0%。 | | | | | | | | | 金额单位：亿元人民币 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称 | 计量单位 | 11月 | | | 1至11月累计 | | 2024年1至11月累计 | | 累计比去年同期±% | | | | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | | 进口 | | | | | | | | | | | 未锻轧铜及铜材 | 万吨 | 42.7 | 333.0 | 488.3 | 3.514.4 | 512.4 | 3.464.6 | -4.7 | 1.4 | | 铜矿砂及其精矿 | 万吨 | 252.6 | 521.3 | 2,761.4 | 5,344.9 | 2,5 ...

以下为2020年3月以来中国铜矿砂主要进口来源国供应情况： 数据来源：海关总署 据海关总署在线查询平台数据显示，中国2025年10月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为2,451,487.80吨，环比减 少5.24%，同比增长6.08%。其中智利、秘鲁、蒙古、哈萨克斯坦等主要供应国输送量环比都有不同程 度的回升，不过其他来源国供应量多有下滑。目前国内铜精矿现货加工费徘徊在-40美元/干吨附近，矿 紧局面仍难以明显缓解。 （文华综合） ...

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年10月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为2,451,487.80 吨，环比减少5.24%，同比增长6.08%。 智利是第一大进口来源地，当月从智利进口铜矿砂及其精矿769,360.14吨，环比上升18.44%，同比上升 18.45%。 秘鲁是第二大进口来源地，当月从秘鲁进口铜矿砂及其精矿658,535.98吨，环比上升11.56%，同比上升 2.62%。 以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年10月中国铜矿砂及其精矿进口分项数据一览表： | 原产地 | 2025年10月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利 | 769,360.14 | 18.44% | 18.45% | | 秘鲁 | 658,535.98 | 11.56% | 2.62% | | 蒙古 | 186,579.27 | 1.22% | 20.64% | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 138,434.96 | 60.01% | 32.94% | | 俄罗斯 | 102,758.53 | 6.42% | 153.25% | | 刚果民主共和国 | 75.4 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's copper ore and concentrate imports, with a total of 2.59 million tons imported in September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [1] - The import value for the same period reached $7.304 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 25.4% [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a robust demand for copper in the market [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]

Trade Data Overview - In October 2025, exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, down from 8.3% in September, while imports increased by 1.0%, down from 7.4%[2] - The trade surplus for October was $90.07 billion, a decrease of $5.64 billion compared to the same month last year[2] Export Performance - The two-year compound growth rate for October exports was 5.55%, indicating resilience despite the month-on-month decline of 7.0%[2] - Exports to the U.S. saw a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.17%, improving by 1.86 percentage points from September[2] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Japan all experienced declines, with year-on-year decreases of 13.26, 4.67, and 7.52 percentage points, respectively[2] Import Trends - October imports showed a significant month-on-month decline of 9.5%, weaker than the four-year average of -6.22%[2] - Key imports such as fertilizers and copper ore saw notable increases, while traditional demand-related imports like iron ore and steel continued to decline[2] Sector Insights - Midstream products dominated exports, with machinery and high-tech products experiencing declines of 9.7% and 11.4% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Certain sectors like shipbuilding and automotive showed significant recovery, reflecting ongoing strengths in midstream manufacturing[2] Economic Outlook - The report highlights the need for policy support to stabilize domestic demand, as import growth remains low despite five consecutive months of positive growth[3] - Risks include potential delays in domestic policy implementation and changes in U.S.-China tariff issues[3]

Core Insights - In October, China's copper ore and concentrate imports reached 2.451 million tons, with a cumulative import of 25.086 million tons from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - In contrast, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in October were 503,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 5.02 million tons from January to October, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [1] Import Data - Copper ore and concentrate: October imports were 2.451 million tons valued at $6.957 billion; cumulative imports from January to October were 25.086 million tons valued at $67.064 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - Unwrought copper and copper products: October imports were 438,000 tons valued at $4.662 billion; cumulative imports from January to October were 4.456 million tons valued at $44.361 billion, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [1] Export Data - Unwrought aluminum and aluminum products: October exports were 503,000 tons valued at $1.758 billion; cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons valued at $17.383 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [1]

Group 1: Rare Earth Exports - In October, China's rare earth exports increased by 9% month-on-month, totaling 4,343.5 tons, marking the first monthly rise after three consecutive months of decline [2] - For the first ten months of the year, rare earth exports reached 52,699.2 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [2] Group 2: Soybean Imports - China's soybean imports in October reached 9.48 million metric tons, a 17.2% increase from 8.09 million metric tons in the same month last year, setting a record for October imports [3] - The total soybean imports for the first ten months of the year amounted to 95.68 million metric tons, up 6.4% year-on-year [3][4] - October's soybean import volume decreased by 26.3% compared to September, which is consistent with seasonal trends [3] Group 3: Major Commodity Price Trends - Major commodity import prices have generally declined, with coal, natural gas, and crude oil import volumes and values both decreasing [4][5] - For the first ten months, coal imports fell by 11% to 38.8 million tons, with an average price drop of 24.5% [4] - Natural gas imports decreased by 6.2% to 10.3 million tons, with a price decline of 8.8% [4] Group 4: Electrical and Mechanical Products - The import value of electrical and mechanical products grew by 5.5% in the first ten months, reaching 6.05 trillion yuan [4]