Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, with core targets in the self-consumption sector (including gaming companies like Giant Network, Huatuo, and Kaiying, as well as Pop Mart, Cloud Music, and Damai) currently trading at a PE ratio of less than 20x for 2026, indicating a high safety margin [4][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural consumption dividend from young domestic users willing to pay for enjoyment, driven by globalization leading to a second growth curve. It suggests focusing on current layout opportunities [4][3]. - In the gaming sector, the report highlights the underestimation of the potential in the female-oriented market and the overseas expansion opportunities, with a significant portion of Gen Z users (65%) [5][3]. - For Pop Mart, the market's overly pessimistic expectations regarding single IPs are noted, with expansion in IP and regions (especially in Europe and North America) being crucial for mid-term growth [6][3]. Gaming Sector Summary - The gaming sector is characterized by a youthful demographic, with a significant opportunity in female-oriented games. The report suggests that the market underestimates the long-term operational capabilities of leading companies [5][3]. - Key companies highlighted include Giant Network, Tencent, Century Huatong, and Bilibili, with specific mentions of their upcoming products and growth strategies [5][3]. Toy Industry Summary - Pop Mart's global expansion is noted, with 171 overseas stores as of October 30, including 62 in North America and 28 in Europe. The report anticipates significant sales growth during the holiday season [6][3]. - The report also discusses the importance of extending the lifecycle of IPs and the successful innovation and iteration of products to maintain fan engagement [6][3]. Music Industry Summary - The valuation of Tencent's music companies is highlighted, with an average PE of 17x for 2026. The report indicates that the market is underestimating the potential for subscription-based revenue from young users [7][3]. - It contrasts Tencent's focus on premium content and community engagement with the low-cost model of competitors, suggesting a stable demand for music consumption [7][3]. Other Notable Companies - The report mentions other entertainment companies like Red Star and the potential for growth in the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly with Alibaba Cloud's AI narrative and the expected benefits from AI applications [8][3]. - The report also notes the ongoing developments in AI technology and its implications for various sectors, including advertising and video content [9][3].

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 - ⚫ 我们认为悦己消费核心标的（游戏巨人、华通、恺英等，泡泡玛特、云音乐、大麦）当 前已经消化至 26 年 PE 不到 20x，有较高安全边际，同时全球化带动第 ...

Group 1 - The core opportunity in the internet and media sectors for 2025 is centered around AI revaluation, particularly in cloud computing, and the globalization and youth-oriented trends in self-consumption, such as trendy toys, music, and concerts [3][4] - AI cloud capital expenditure (capex) is expected to expand in its second year, with a focus on return on investment (ROI) from AI investments, making capex/operating cash flow a key metric for investors [3][4] - Major companies to watch in the AI cloud space include Alibaba, Baidu, and Kingsoft Cloud, which are focusing on domestic production and infrastructure [3][12] Group 2 - The AI application landscape is shifting from conceptual discussions to a focus on commercial viability, with significant developments in AI advertising and video monetization expected in 2026 [3][4] - Tencent, Bilibili, Meitu, Kuaishou, and Focus Technology are highlighted as key players in the AI application ecosystem, with a particular emphasis on the monetization of chatbot applications and the evolution of AI video tools into community platforms [3][4] - The gaming sector is seeing structural opportunities driven by Generation Z and international expansion, with a focus on companies like Giant Network, Century Huatong, and Xindong Company [3][4] Group 3 - The self-consumption trend is expected to continue, with gaming, music, and trendy toys being key areas of growth, particularly as the market adjusts post-2025 [3][4] - The video sector is anticipated to reach a turning point, with policy stabilization and diverse monetization strategies being crucial for growth [3][4] - Companies such as Mango Super Media, Shanghai Film, and Reading Group are positioned to benefit from these trends [3][4] Group 4 - The report indicates a recovery in companies like Focus Media, Vision Source, and educational publishing firms, suggesting a positive outlook for these sectors [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous performance and valuation adjustments in the context of evolving market conditions [3][4] Group 5 - The domestic cloud computing market is witnessing increased capital expenditure from major internet companies, with Alibaba and Tencent leading the charge [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of measuring the health of cloud investments through the capex/operating cash flow ratio, with Tencent's ratio being notably lower than its peers [19][29] - AI-driven cloud services are expected to maintain higher profit margins compared to traditional cloud offerings, with a focus on internal workload efficiencies [29][30] Group 6 - The report outlines the competitive landscape of AI applications, noting that Chinese companies are making significant strides in the global market, particularly in productivity tools and content generation [34][35] - The emergence of ChatGPT as a multi-functional platform is reshaping the AI application ecosystem, with significant implications for user engagement and commercial applications [35][39] - Advertising remains a critical area for AI commercialization, with companies like Meta, Tencent, and Bilibili leveraging AI to enhance ad performance and efficiency [43][49]

Core Insights - The music industry is undergoing a transformation driven by AI technologies, with major tech companies competing to establish their presence in this evolving landscape [2][3][10] - The generative AI music market is projected to reach $2.795 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.4% from 2024 to 2030 [3][9] Group 1: AI Reshaping the Music Industry - AI is revolutionizing every aspect of the music industry, from creation and production to distribution and consumption, fundamentally altering the traditional music value chain [3][4] - Major players in the Chinese market, including Migu, ByteDance, Tencent, and NetEase Cloud Music, are intensifying their AI initiatives to capture a share of the lucrative generative AI music market [3][4] Group 2: Company Strategies and Innovations - Migu has introduced user-friendly AI music creation features, allowing users to generate personalized video ringtones easily [4] - ByteDance's strategy leverages its extensive product ecosystem, integrating its music platform with TikTok to enhance user engagement and reduce acquisition costs [4][5] - Tencent Music Entertainment Group launched "Qixing Star AI Singing/AI Song Creation," enabling users to create music with minimal effort, thus lowering the barriers to professional music production [5][6] - NetEase Cloud Music focuses on enhancing user experience through its "AI Tuning Master," which allows for personalized sound adjustments based on song characteristics [6][7] Group 3: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The rise of AI music raises complex copyright issues, as the collaborative nature of AI-generated music complicates ownership and originality [8][9] - Despite challenges, investment in AI music is surging, with companies like Suno securing significant funding, indicating strong market interest [9] - The competition in the music industry is shifting from merely acquiring existing market share to creating new value through innovative AI tools [10]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Infrastructure Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special bonds for "hard investment" projects in the last two years, supporting 1465 and 1459 projects respectively, reflecting strategic and forward-looking planning [2] - The NDRC plans to enhance parking facilities and upgrade existing infrastructure, with over 3.4 million new parking spaces added during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and a total of 18.645 million electric vehicle charging points as of October, marking a 54% year-on-year increase [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) aims to cultivate three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, based on comprehensive assessments of consumption trends and technological changes [4] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Innovations - The first clinical brain-computer interface (BCI) surgery in China was successfully completed, marking a significant step in the clinical application of BCI technology, with the procedure priced at 6,552 yuan per operation [6] - The establishment of the Industrial Artificial Intelligence Research Institute by the Chinese Academy of Sciences aims to drive innovation in industrial AI, focusing on the entire chain from top-level design to implementation [7] - Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, emphasized that the most valuable robots in the next decade will be cars equipped with autonomous capabilities, highlighting the need for vehicles to possess complete sensory and decision-making abilities [8] Group 3: Corporate Developments and Market Reactions - Anta Sports has been rumored to be considering a bid for Puma, with potential collaboration with a private equity firm, although the company has refrained from commenting on market speculation [10] - The resignation of Zong Fuli from her positions at Wahaha Group has been noted, with her retaining a 29.40% stake in the company [11] - SuperX announced a stock repurchase plan authorized by its board, allowing for the repurchase of up to 20 million USD in common stock over the next year [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of TME's internationalization is built on its domestic market capabilities, with the Chinese digital music market expected to reach 211.35 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 10.8% year-on-year, driven by music live streaming and short video consumption [1] - TME has upgraded its service model from early paid subscriptions and digital albums to a diversified service matrix that includes offline performances, online interactions, and artist-related services, resulting in a significant increase in online music service revenue by 27.2% to 6.97 billion yuan in Q3 [1] - The company has established a multi-tiered membership system that effectively converts free users into paying members, enhancing both penetration rates and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [1] Group 2 - TME's internationalization strategy is not merely about business output but involves three main paths: content dual activation, platform bridging, and industry ecosystem co-construction [2] - On the content side, TME collaborates with international labels like DREAMUS and KING RECORDS, while also distributing Chinese music to over 170 overseas platforms, achieving significant success with localized versions of songs [2] - TME's localized operations include events like "JOOX Music Night" in Bangkok and the "Star Power" monthly selection in collaboration with Billboard, aimed at promoting Chinese music internationally [2] Group 3 - TME's internationalization efforts have created a full-chain layout from content creation to platform distribution, addressing challenges in the Chinese music industry's overseas expansion [4] - The company aims to shift the industry from "single-point breakthroughs" to "cluster exports," leveraging the decentralization trend in the global music market [4] - TME's executives emphasize the importance of continuous innovation and expanding service boundaries to enhance user engagement and drive revenue growth [4] Group 4 - TME plans to deepen content co-creation and cross-cultural collaboration, promoting Chinese music in the global market while bringing quality overseas resources into China [4] - The exploration of "industry ecosystem internationalization" is expected to support TME's sustained growth and provide a replicable model for the globalization of the Chinese music industry [4] - This strategy aims to showcase the beauty of Eastern music on the world stage, backed by the trillion-yuan cultural and entertainment market [4]

Core Insights - The music industry is witnessing a shift where artists are increasingly deviating from traditional hit-making formulas, as exemplified by Rosalía's recent album release and Lily Allen's surprise album drop [1][3] - The rapid rise of songs on platforms like TikTok is not translating into long-term streaming success, indicating a decline in the conversion rate from viral moments to sustained popularity [5][8][9] Group 1: Trends in Music Consumption - The time required for songs to reach 100,000 uses on TikTok has drastically decreased from 340 days in 2020 to just 48 days in 2025, showcasing the acceleration of song virality [5][8] - Despite the increased speed of song uptake, the impact of TikTok on Spotify plays has diminished, with a TikTok video in 2025 equating to only 275 Spotify plays compared to 738 in 2020 [8][9] - The phenomenon of songs achieving peak popularity quickly but fading just as fast is evident, with nearly 40% of songs in Spotify's top 50 reaching their peak on the release day [13][20] Group 2: The Changing Landscape of Hits - The current environment has led to a proliferation of short-lived hits rather than enduring classics, with many songs only achieving significant traction for a brief period [20][32] - The traditional model of music release, which once involved anticipation and a ceremonial launch, has been replaced by a formulaic approach driven by social media algorithms [25][31] - The music industry is increasingly characterized by "micro-hits," where success is often fleeting and reliant on momentary algorithmic favor rather than sustained audience engagement [32][36] Group 3: Challenges for Artists - Artists face a dilemma between chasing short-term viral success and creating music with lasting value, leading to a compressed career trajectory [43][44] - Data indicates that less than 60% of Spotify's Top 50 artists since 2017 have entered the charts with a single song, highlighting the need for multiple hits to achieve sustained success [38][41] - The age demographic of successful artists is skewing younger, with a significant portion of popular singles coming from artists under 36, suggesting a trend towards shorter career spans [41][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of the "manga drama" sector as a significant application of AI in content production, highlighting its rapid growth and cost efficiency, which could lead to a transformation in the content industry [6][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The manga drama market is experiencing explosive growth, with daily revenues exceeding 30 million and an expected annual market size of 20 billion [6]. - The production cost for manga dramas has been reduced to 1,000-2,500 yuan per minute, with production cycles shortened to 10-13 days, allowing small teams to manage adaptations of major IPs [6][18]. - The traditional content industry is facing a "supply-side revolution," as AI fundamentally alters the production function, moving from a model focused on high costs and long cycles to one that emphasizes efficiency and speed [7][10]. Group 2: Content Production Evolution - The shift from PGC (Professionally Generated Content) to UGC (User Generated Content) and now to AIGC (AI Generated Content) indicates a trend towards decentralization in content creation, with AIGC offering higher efficiency and lower costs [10][11]. - AI serves as a powerful tool for automating repetitive tasks in content production, significantly enhancing productivity across various media formats, including text, audio, and video [13][20]. - The manga drama sector exemplifies AI's potential to reduce production costs and time, with traditional animation costs dropping from over 500,000 yuan to between 100,000 and 300,000 yuan [17][18]. Group 3: Content Distribution and Engagement - AI's role in content distribution is becoming increasingly vital, with the ability to create precise user profiles and enhance recommendation algorithms, leading to improved engagement and retention rates [30][32]. - The use of AI in analyzing user behavior allows for targeted content delivery, which has shown to increase click-through rates and user retention significantly [30][31]. - AI's capability to adapt content to various consumption scenarios enhances user experience and engagement, as seen in the gaming and music industries [34][35]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article posits that AI will continue to reshape the content industry, particularly in video production, gaming, and film, leading to a "small cost, big production" model [38][39]. - Companies that fail to adapt to AI-driven changes in content production and distribution may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage, as traditional methods become obsolete [40][41]. - The overarching theme is that AI is not merely a trend but a fundamental shift in how content is created and consumed, returning to the core of commercial value [41].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-over-year growth, indicating resilience and growth potential across its business segments [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.359 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.7% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.616 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 31.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.2% [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit was 9.502 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 26.7% but a slight quarter-over-quarter decrease of 0.3% [1]. - Gross margin improved to 64.1%, up 2.0 percentage points year-over-year, while the sales expense ratio increased to 15.7%, up 8.3 percentage points year-over-year [1]. Gaming Business - The gaming and value-added services segment generated revenue of 22.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking an 11.8% year-over-year increase and a 2.3% quarter-over-quarter increase [2]. - The company demonstrated strong operational capabilities with classic IPs performing well, including record-high concurrent players for "Dream of Dreams" [2]. - New game launches, such as "Fate: Stars" and upcoming titles like "The Sea of Forgotten," are expected to enhance global reach and player engagement [2]. NetEase Youdao - NetEase Youdao reported revenue of 1.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, showing a year-over-year growth of 3.6% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 14.9% [3]. - The AI-native strategy is yielding positive results, with collaborations enhancing resource integration and market demand targeting [3]. NetEase Cloud Music - NetEase Cloud Music achieved revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a slight year-over-year decline of 1.8% but stable quarter-over-quarter [4]. - The introduction of AI tuning features and award-winning recommendation models has improved user experience significantly [4]. Innovation and Other Businesses - Revenue from innovation and other businesses was 1.4 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-over-year and 15.3% quarter-over-quarter [4]. - The company is focusing on brand rejuvenation and leveraging AI technology to enhance content quality and community engagement [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company forecasts revenues of 114.8 billion yuan, 126.5 billion yuan, and 136.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 39.1 billion yuan, 44.1 billion yuan, and 49.1 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The target price for 2026 is set at 265 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the profitability and competitive landscape of different business segments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Open Source Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase-S (09999), highlighting robust third-quarter performance with both revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth, particularly a significant net profit increase of 31.8% driven by core games and AI technology applications [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase and a 1.7% quarter-on-quarter increase, with net profit reaching 8.6 billion yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 64.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 31.0%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability driven by fair value changes in stock investments and lower foreign exchange losses [1] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 35.7 billion, 38.3 billion, and 42.9 billion yuan respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 16.6, 15.5, and 13.8 times [1] Group 2: Gaming and New Releases - Revenue from games and related value-added services in Q3 reached 23.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year increase and a 2.3% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by titles like "Dream of the Red Chamber" and new games [2] - The gross margin for this segment was 69.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with "Dream of the Red Chamber" achieving record high concurrent users [2] - The company is expanding its overseas product offerings, with "Destiny: Stars" topping iOS download charts in multiple regions and new titles like "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" performing well internationally [2] Group 3: AI and Music Business - Cloud Music reported a revenue of 1.96 billion yuan in Q3, with a gross margin increase of 2.6 percentage points to 35.4%, driven by the launch of the "AI Tuning Master" [3] - Youdao's revenue reached 1.63 billion yuan in Q3, primarily due to over 40% growth in online marketing services, with a user retention rate exceeding 75% [3] - AI-driven subscription service revenue reached approximately 100 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 40%, indicating strong growth potential in music and education sectors [3]