Market Overview - Major market indices opened lower today, with over 2100 stocks rising at the opening [1] - Lithium mining stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Dazhong Mining and Guocheng Mining hitting the daily limit [2] - The military equipment sector experienced significant gains, with Jianglong Shipbuilding and Changcheng Military Industry reaching the daily limit, while Beifang Changlong and Chenxi Aviation rose over 10% [3] - The Fujian sector saw a surge, with Hongxiang Co. and Zhongfutong hitting the daily limit, along with several other stocks like Pingtan Development and XG Group [4] New Stock Offerings - Two new stocks are available for subscription this week: Jingchuang Electric on Tuesday and China Uranium on Friday [5] - Jingchuang Electric specializes in cold chain equipment and IoT solutions, while China Uranium focuses on natural uranium supply and the comprehensive utilization of radioactive co-associated mineral resources [5] Financing Activities - As of November 14, the total market financing balance was 2.47 trillion yuan, a decrease of 134.56 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - The coal industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, up by 13.4 million yuan, with other sectors like retail and petrochemicals also showing increases [6] - A total of 377 stocks had a net financing buy-in of over 10 million yuan, with 13 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan, led by WuXi AppTec with a net buy-in of 207 million yuan [6] Institutional Research - In the past two trading days, 107 companies announced institutional research records, with six companies attracting over 50 institutions each [7] - Yutong Optical and Industrial Fulian were notably popular, with 167 and 122 institutions respectively conducting research [7] - The focus of the research on Yutong Optical included the rapid growth of its performance in the first three quarters and the demand for its glass aspheric lenses driven by new consumer markets [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium currently has a lithium fluoride production capacity of 10,000 tons per year and has not yet produced lithium hexafluorophosphate, with 1 ton of lithium fluoride theoretically capable of producing approximately 1.85 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate [1] Group 1 - The company's lithium fluoride production capacity is 10,000 tons per year [1] - The company has not yet started production of lithium hexafluorophosphate [1] - The theoretical conversion rate indicates that 1 ton of lithium fluoride can produce about 1.85 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

| | | | | 锂矿概念板块个股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅%↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | 1 | 000688 | 国城矿业 | 1 | 7.41 | 305亿 | 127.84 | | 2 | 002192 | 融劃股份 | 张 | 6.95 | 150亿 | 81.86 | | 3 | 002738 | 中矿资源 | | 6.77 | 484亿 | 91.65 | | 4 | 001203 | 大中矿业 | 1 | 6.45 | 451亿 | 252.34 | | 5 | 002240 | 盛新锂能 | 1 | 6.00 | 317亿 | 151.23 | | 6 | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | 1 | 4.86 | 974 Z | 79.88 | | 7 | 601969 | 国国航业 | 1 | 4.53 | 272亿 | 94.86 | | 8 | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 1 | 4.52 | 1443亿 | 65.67 | | ਰੇ | 002460 ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，11月17日，锂矿概念走强，大中矿业14天7板，天华新能涨超10%，永兴材料、融捷股 份、中矿资源、盛新锂能等涨幅靠前。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate rose significantly and then entered a high - level oscillation. The main reason was that on November 6, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province released the publicity of the evaluation of the transfer right - of - use fee for Zhenxiawo Mine, which increased the cost and limited the supply increment in November. However, bulls were cautious near the previous high, and the selling pressure was strong, leading to the high - level oscillation of the price [4]. - In the later stage, there will be a fierce game between bulls and bears, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely. From the bull's perspective, there is no expectation of Zhenxiawo Mine's resumption in the short term, with a bottleneck in supply increment. Terminal power demand is strong, inventory is accelerating depletion, and the fundamentals are improving. Also, driven by policies and large industrial orders, the demand for energy storage is expected to increase. From the bear's perspective, terminal power demand may decline in December, and the increment of imported resources is clear, which may cool down the fundamentals [4][13]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Market Data - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the price of imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from 147 to 140 dollars/ton, a decline of 5.10%; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from 904 to 891 dollars/ton, a decline of 1.44%; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from 904 to 891 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.44%; the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 8.23 to 8.74 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15%; the price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased from 8.05 to 8.57 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.54%; the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 123,777 to 121,140 tons, a decline of 2.13% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of November 14, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 27,170 lots, with the latest matching transaction price of 86,880 yuan/ton. The holding scale of the main contract 2601 was 516,800 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 23,850 tons, an increase of 385 tons from the previous period. Zhenxiawo Mine was still shut down, and it was difficult to resume production in November. Although the supply of lithium concentrate was abundant, the processing capacity of spodumene - based lithium production had a bottleneck, and the output of northern salt lakes would weaken with the cold weather, so the short - term supply shortage was difficult to ease [7]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import from Chile was about 1.08 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 55.2%; the import from Argentina was 6,948 tons, a year - on - year increase of 242.9%, accounting for about 35.5%. In October, the scale of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile to China was about 16,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of about 46%. With the ramp - up of Zijin Mining's 3Q project, there was a strong expectation of an increase in imports from Argentina [8]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In September, the total import of lithium ore was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia was 347,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.1%; the import from Zimbabwe was about 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%; the import from Nigeria was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; the import from South Africa increased significantly to about 108,700 tons [8][9]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of November 14, the total output of lithium iron phosphate was about 99,906 tons, with an operating rate of 87.92%, an increase of 2.68 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 39,732 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. The total output of ternary materials was about 19,784 tons, with an operating rate of 51.77%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,090 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period. The price of ternary materials was relatively stable, and the price of lithium iron phosphate increased [10]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From November 1 to 9, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 265,000, a year - on - year decrease of 5% compared with the same period in November last year and a month - on - month increase of 16%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,041.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 21%. There were large fluctuations in the delivery rhythm of car companies. Policies on new - energy vehicle subsidies varied among different provinces and cities [11]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 121,140 tons, a decrease of about 2,637 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 22,140 tons, a decrease of about 160 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 71,508 tons, a decrease of about 1,273 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 27,170 lots, a decrease of 162 lots from the previous week [12]. This Week's Outlook - There will be a fierce game between bulls and bears, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The short - term supply bottleneck and strong terminal demand support the bullish view, while the possible decline in terminal power demand in December and the clear increment of imported resources support the bearish view [13]. Industry News - Fosu Technology plans to jointly establish a project company with Zijin Lithium Yuan and others to invest in a battery - grade lithium sulfide pilot - scale platform project. The project company has a registered capital of 100 million yuan, and Fosu Technology will contribute 5 million yuan, accounting for 5% of the equity. The planned total investment of the project is 113 million yuan, and a 100 - ton/year lithium sulfide production line will be built [14]. - Posco Holdings will invest $765 million to acquire a 30% stake in the lithium business of Mineral Resources Ltd. in Australia and will form a joint venture. Posco Holdings will have partial ownership of two mines in Western Australia and will obtain lithium concentrate equivalent to its equity [14]. - After the technological transformation of Shilei Fluorine Materials is completed, the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate of New宙邦 will increase to 36,000 tons/year. Currently, the production capacity is 24,000 tons/year [14]. - Shenzhen Xingxing is arranging the installation of equipment before the production of 7,200 - ton lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity. The construction of this capacity was basically completed in mid - 2024 but was not put into production due to low market prices [14]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of the implementation of export controls on some items including lithium batteries from November 7, 2025, to November 10, 2026 [14].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has increased by over 4%, leading to a rise in Hong Kong lithium mining stocks, with Tianqi Lithium up over 5% and Ganfeng Lithium up over 4% [1] Industry Summary - The main contract for lithium carbonate has risen by 4% to 90,860 yuan per ton [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, stated that global lithium carbonate demand is expected to reach 1.45 million tons by 2025, but due to increased demand in the second half of the year, the annual demand forecast has been updated to 1.55 million tons [1] - Supply capacity is projected to be over 1.7 million tons, indicating a surplus of around 200,000 tons, which contributes to the current low prices [1] - It is predicted that lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to increase by approximately 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not be able to keep up, causing prices to potentially exceed 150,000 yuan per ton or even 200,000 yuan per ton [1]

港股锂矿股高开，其中，天齐锂业涨超5%，赣锋锂业涨超4%。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the lithium market, particularly the carbonate lithium segment, and its investment value as of November 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: The current inventory of carbonate lithium is decreasing faster than expected, with a weekly reduction of over 3,000 tons, despite the resumption of production by Ningde Times, which has an annual output of approximately 100,000 tons [3][4]. - **Downstream Demand Growth**: The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with projections for 2025 reaching 580 GWh, a 75% increase year-over-year. Each additional 100 GWh of storage demand translates to a need for 60,000 to 70,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [4][5]. - **Impact of Ningde Times**: Ningde Times dominates the Yichun region's mining sector, and its production resumption has a diminished impact on the current rapid inventory reduction [5][6]. - **International Supply Adjustments**: Rising domestic lithium prices have benefited overseas mining companies, particularly in Australia, which have raised their production forecasts for the upcoming year. However, capital expenditures have declined since 2024, leading to a slowdown in actual supply growth over the next 2-3 years [6][7]. - **African Mining Supply Trends**: African mines, while previously significant, are experiencing a slowdown in growth due to cost pressures and price fluctuations. Many companies are adjusting their supply plans in response to these challenges [7][8]. Price Expectations - **Future Price Projections**: The price of carbonate lithium is expected to exceed 100,000 yuan per ton in 2026, driven by increased demand and potential shortages due to downstream stocking and trading activities [9][14]. - **Cost Reduction Potential**: There is potential for cost reductions in lithium spodumene through process optimization and local production of lithium sulfate in Zimbabwe, with some companies targeting a fully loaded cost below 60,000 yuan [10]. Regional Developments - **Domestic Salt Lake Lithium Production**: The expansion of lithium production from Qinghai salt lakes is limited due to resource constraints, while projects in Tibet show promise but will not significantly impact supply in the short term [11][12]. - **Sichuan Lithium Spodumene Mines**: Several lithium spodumene mines in Sichuan are operational, with larger projects expected to come online, but they will not significantly affect the supply-demand balance in the near term [13]. Investment Opportunities - **Investment Focus**: Companies with future production growth potential, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua New Energy, Guocheng Mining, and Dazhong Mining, are highlighted as attractive investment targets. Additionally, leading firms like Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Zhongmin Yongxing are also recommended for long-term investment due to their strong performance in previous cycles [9][18]. Market Behavior and Corporate Strategies - **Proactive Corporate Actions**: Companies are taking proactive measures regarding production adjustments to respond to market conditions, with a lower likelihood of bankruptcies due to strong cash positions [15][16]. - **AISC Cost Considerations**: The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) concept may limit the ability of Australian mining companies to expand significantly due to high operational costs relative to selling prices [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the lithium market's current state, future expectations, and potential investment opportunities.

Core Insights - The chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, Li Liangbin, predicts that global lithium carbonate demand will increase from an original estimate of 1.45 million tons in 2025 to 1.55 million tons due to growth in the second half of the year [1][2] - Supply capacity is expected to exceed 1.7 million tons, resulting in a surplus of approximately 200,000 tons, which has led to low prices this year [1][2] - For 2026, lithium carbonate demand is projected to grow by 30% to 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to increase by around 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand and potential price increases [1][2] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not balance, and prices could exceed 150,000 yuan/ton, possibly reaching 200,000 yuan/ton [1][2]