（记者 王晓波） 截至发稿，立中集团市值为163亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——段睿：我与蔡磊是 "找钥匙的人"，纵使生前寻不到，也要为其他渐冻症患 者铺就近路 每经AI快讯，立中集团（SZ 300428，收盘价：25.45元）11月17日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第三十 四次董事会会议于2025年11月14日以现场和通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于提前赎回"立中转债"的议 案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，立中集团的营业收入构成为：工业占比100.0%。 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五" | 专访尹艳林：让有钱且愿消费的人顺利消费；个税起征点可 提高，最高边际税率可下调，让有关群体少缴税、多收入 每经AI快讯，ST复华（SH 600624，收盘价：6.08元）11月17日晚间发布公告称，公司第十一届第十八 次董事会会议于2025年11月17日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于变更会计师事务所的议案》等文 件。 2024年1至12月份，ST复华的营业收入构成为：工业占比48.28%，软件开发占比42.88%，房地产业占比 6.57%，其他业务占比2.27%。 截至发稿，ST复华市值为41亿元。 （记者 曾健辉） ...

格隆汇11月17日丨建设工业(002265.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示,公司暂未涉足建筑业相关领域。 ...

每经AI快讯，11月17日，日本9月工业产值终值环比增长2.6%；日本9月工业产值终值同比增长3.8%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The calendar effect in the convertible bond market results from the multi - dimensional intersection of macro - policy rhythms, micro - capital behaviors, and supply - demand changes. It provides a reference perspective for analyzing the fluctuations in the convertible bond and equity markets [4]. - There are significant "calendar effects" in the convertible bond and equity markets, which are formed by multiple factors such as policy meetings, capital - flow periodic fluctuations, earnings disclosure rhythms, and changes in investors' risk preferences. This offers a time - dimension reference for asset allocation [7]. - At the sector level, the "calendar effect" is related to industry rotation intensity, policy rhythms, and performance disclosure cycles. It can help identify phased allocation opportunities. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on industrial and information technology convertible bonds [8]. - From the perspective of supply - demand rhythms, the price center of convertible bonds is expected to continue rising. The supply - demand pattern of the convertible bond market shows certain seasonal characteristics, and grasping the rhythm changes may help in layout during phased supply - demand relaxation windows [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodically Appearing "Calendar Effect" - The "calendar effect" refers to the statistically repeatable return deviations or behavior patterns in the securities market within specific time cycles. The research focuses on the performance of A - share and convertible bond main indices from early 2018 to October 24, 2025 [18]. - In the weekly calendar effect, there is a "Monday strong" phenomenon. Mid - and large - cap indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500, as well as the CSI Convertible Bond Index, show a "Wednesday weak" feature, while small - and mid - cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 show a "Friday weak" feature. This may be related to the "T + 1" trading mechanism and the influence of public funds [18][21]. - In the monthly performance, the overall performance of major indices in the late part of the month is usually weaker than that in the first and middle parts. The "calendar effect" within a month may be related to the periodic fluctuations of the capital flow. The CSI Convertible Bond market also shows a significant monthly calendar effect [27][30]. 3.2 "Calendar Effect" under Policy Guidelines - Policy releases have certain time rules and rhythms, which are important sources of the A - share market's "calendar effect". Key economic meetings should be highly concerned, such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Central Financial Work Conference [35]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index show certain monthly seasonal characteristics. The risk premium of the market has declined, and the equity market still has relatively high cost - effectiveness. The monthly periodic performance of these indices may be related to the annual policy release rhythm and important meeting arrangements [38][43]. 3.3 "Calendar Effect" from the Perspective of Financial Reports - The equity market shows periodic stock - price fluctuations around financial report releases. After the annual report season, the performance of small - and mid - cap indices weakens, while the large - cap style is dominant at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Different sectors have different performances during and after the annual report performance disclosure period [45][47]. 3.4 "Calendar Effect" under Risk Preferences - Changes in risk preferences are a key factor driving the calendar effect in the convertible bond market. The convertible bond market is more active in the second and third quarters. The financing - margin trading volume ratio to the total A - share trading volume also shows periodic changes, which may be related to policy release rhythms and corporate earnings disclosure cycles [57][59]. 3.5 Opportunity Identification of the "Calendar Effect" at the Sector Dimension - Since September, the industry rotation intensity has increased. The periods of high rotation intensity are usually in April, August, September, and December, while February, June, October, and November are relatively flat. The narrowing of the conversion premium rate channel may indicate future directional changes in the convertible bond market [67][72]. 3.6 Monthly - Dimension Industry Rotation Rules - In the "Spring Rally" at the beginning of the year (January - February), technology - growth sectors perform prominently. During the annual report performance disclosure period (March - May), defensive sectors perform well. In the mid - year report performance game period (June - July), cyclical and growth sectors resonate. After the mid - year report is released (August - September), most sectors enter a callback. At the end of the year (October - December), there is a style switch and defensive allocation [75][81]. 3.7 Industrial Convertible Bonds Still Have Room for Growth during Supply - Demand Reconstruction - Industrial convertible bonds are a worthy allocation direction in November. Benefiting from the improvement of the supply - demand relationship and the overall contraction of the convertible bond market supply, industrial convertible bonds perform better than in previous years. Although the current valuation is high, it is still attractive, and the convertible bonds have the potential to rise after valuation digestion [85][90]. 3.8 The Information Technology Sector May Continue to Be the Main Line - The information technology sector has a higher probability of strengthening in March, July, and November. Currently, it is in the early stage of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and with policy support and technological iteration, its performance in the equity market may be sustainable. From August, the information technology convertible bond index has gradually recovered, and it may still have performance space from November to December [97].

Group 1 - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 19.31%, with 241 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - As of November 14, southbound funds hold a total of 4,878.54 million shares, accounting for 19.31% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a total market value of 63,648.87 billion HKD, representing 14.62% of the total market value [1] - The highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is in China Telecom, with 100.04 million shares held, accounting for 72.08% of the issued shares [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 56, 36, and 34 stocks respectively [2] - The top stocks with high southbound fund holdings include China Telecom (72.08%), Green Power Environmental (69.17%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (68.32%) [2][3] - A significant portion of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 53.53% of stocks having a shareholding ratio over 20% being AH shares [1]

在经历了一轮显著上涨后，为AI热潮提供基础设施的"卖铲"公司近期遭遇了市场的猛烈回调，但分析认为这并未改变其今年以来由强劲基本面支撑的优异 表现。 据追风交易台消息，瑞银一份最新报告指出，尽管这些工业股的估值有所扩张，但市场对其长期增长的预期仍相对温和，与科技巨头的高期望值形成对 比。 在11月14日发布的报告中，瑞银统计了一个包含约60家全球AI相关工业股的投资组合在前一个交易日普遍回调，平均跌幅约5%，部分个股跌幅甚至达到 10-20%。 然而，这次回调并未逆转全年的强劲势头。按市值加权计算，该投资组合今年迄今的回报率高达41%，表现远超大盘，也几乎是"科技七巨头+博通"等科 技龙头表现的两倍。这一轮上涨的背后，是企业经营业绩的实质性改善，包括现金流投资回报（CFROI）的飙升和资产增长的加速。 强劲的股价表现推动了估值扩张。瑞银的数据显示，该投资组合的经济市盈率（Economic P/E）已从一年前的约25倍扩张至目前的近35倍。这一水平使其 相较于更广泛的市场享有显著溢价，但仍低于头部科技巨头的估值，凸显了市场对这些AI基础设施供应商未来盈利增长的乐观情绪。 强劲基本面支撑股价表现 AI基础设施股的优 ...

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of November 15 is 4.7%, slightly down from the revised 4.8% of the previous week, indicating a slowdown in economic growth[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index is at 8.1%, down from 8.2% the previous week, while the service industry index is at 3.0%, down from 3.1%[9] Production Sector - Both service and industrial high-frequency indicators have declined compared to the previous week[12] - The average daily output of key iron-making enterprises has increased, indicating some recovery in industrial production[12] Demand Side - Domestic demand remains weak, while external demand shows resilience, with container throughput for exports increasing to 680.9 thousand TEUs, up from 671.8 thousand TEUs the previous week[53] - The consumer high-frequency index has slightly risen to 2.9%, up from 2.6% the previous week, reflecting a modest recovery in consumer activity[9] Real Estate Market - The weekly sales of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 146 million square meters, a 7% rise from the previous week, but down 34% year-on-year[45] - The land transaction area decreased significantly, with 631 million square meters sold, down 195.3 million square meters from the previous week[45] Price Trends - Consumer goods prices remained stable, while industrial goods prices showed signs of recovery, with the agricultural wholesale price index rising by 0.37% week-on-week[57] - The average price of pork decreased by 0.19% week-on-week, while the prices of key vegetables and fruits saw slight increases of 0.14% and 0.54%, respectively[63]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a downward trend from November 10 to November 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, a slight decline of 0.18% for the week [2] - Growth sectors faced significant pullbacks, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices dropping over 5%, indicating pressure on high-valuation sectors [2] - Structural differentiation continued, with the CSI Dividend Index rising 0.25%, showcasing the resilience of value styles, while the Wind Micro-Cap Index surged 4.11%, becoming one of the few market highlights [2] Industry Performance - The average performance of Wind's primary industry indices increased by 0.48%, with over half of the sectors achieving positive returns [9] - The healthcare sector rose by 3.27%, consumer staples by 2.72%, and real estate by 2.62%, marking the strongest performances [9] - Conversely, the information technology sector fell by 4.27%, industrials by 1.28%, and telecommunications services by 1.09%, indicating significant pressure on technology and manufacturing sectors [9] Fund Issuance - A total of 24 funds were issued last week, including 14 equity funds, 4 mixed funds, 2 bond funds, and 4 fund of funds (FOFs), with a total issuance of 14.173 billion units [13] Fund Performance - The Wind All-Fund Index decreased by 0.37% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index down by 0.40% and the mixed equity fund index down by 0.71% [3] - The bond fund index saw a slight increase of 0.06%, indicating a mixed performance across different fund types [3] Global Market Context - Global equity markets showed a mixed performance, with the US market stable and the Dow Jones rising by 0.34%, while European markets performed strongly, with France's CAC40 up by 2.77% and Germany's DAX up by 1.30% [4] - In the commodity market, natural gas rose by 4.47%, silver by 4.69%, and gold by 1.86%, while coking coal plummeted by 6.77% [4] - The US dollar index weakened amid strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which diminished the dollar's attractiveness [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].