高低硫均偏弱震荡 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 高硫近端库存高位维持压抑市场价格。俄罗斯能源设施受袭持续，但梁赞及伏尔加格勒等大炼厂设施也处于陆续回归恢复状态，预期 于9月下旬逐步回归，关注后续乌克兰对俄轰炸情况。中东高硫出口随着发电需求消退有所回升，其中伊朗出口仍受限制。墨西哥高 硫出口在Olmeca和Tula二次装置投产背景下持续回落。需求端，夏季发电需求彻底消退。高硫裂解下行及税改的低成本背景下，进 料需求支撑仍不明显。高硫近月关注新仓单生成及后续库存消化节奏。 低硫燃料油现货贴水低位震荡。低硫供应持续回升且下游需求无具体 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the cracking of high-sulfur 380cst in Singapore fluctuated, the spread of near-month contracts oscillated, the basis strengthened, the EW spread oscillated at a high level, and the fluctuation of the near-month spread between domestic and foreign FU contracts intensified due to delivery factors. The cracking of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened rapidly, the spread of contracts weakened at an accelerated pace, and the spread between domestic and foreign LU contracts compressed to $6 - 7 per ton, with the basis of MF0.5 oscillating [4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory decreased by 871,000 barrels, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residue inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue inventory continued to increase. The peak season for high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has passed. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provides support, and the EW spread has completed its repair. The spread between domestic and foreign high-sulfur fuel oil has risen again due to the impact of delivery warehouses, with short-term repair between domestic and foreign markets. This week, LU prices declined at an accelerated pace, and the basis of the overseas MF0.5 contract was weak. Given the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity for the spread between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oil to widen in the fourth quarter can be monitored [5]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 fluctuated between $372.49 - $380.24, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 between $429.51 - $439.86, etc., with some prices remaining unchanged on September 11 - 12 [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of Singapore 380cst M1 fluctuated between $388.46 - $395.14, Singapore 180cst M1 between $397.37 - $399.61, etc., with the spread of Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreasing by $0.12 [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, FOB 380cst prices fluctuated between $388.92 - $396.90, FOB VLSFO between $463.14 - $469.80, etc., with no change in prices on September 11 - 12 [3]. Domestic FU Contract Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, FU 01 prices fluctuated between 2679 - 2802, FU 05 between 2693 - 2754, etc., with changes of -85, -61, -37 for FU 01, FU 05, FU 09 respectively [3]. Domestic LU Contract Prices - From September 8 - 12, 2025, LU 01 prices fluctuated between 3259 - 3385, LU 05 between 3259 - 3347, etc., with changes of -105, -74, -74 for LU 01, LU 05, LU 09 respectively [4].

国家统计局数据显示，2025年8月份，全国规上工业原油加工量6346万吨，同比增长7.6%；日均加工204.7万吨。2025年1-8月份，全国规上工 业原油加工量48807万吨，同比增长3.2%。 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 国家统计局数据显示，8月份，规上工业原油加工量6346万吨，同比增长7.6%；日均加工204.7万吨。1 —8月份，规上工业原油加工量48807万吨，同比增长3.2%。 ...

Group 1 - In the first five months of 2025, the petroleum coke production in Yunnan Province reached 129,000 tons, representing a 6.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 12.0 percentage points higher than 2024 and 11.2 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The total petroleum coke production in China during the same period was 13,124,000 tons, with Yunnan's contribution accounting for 1.0% of the national total [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, Yunnan Province's petroleum coke production was 31,000 tons, marking a 24.5% increase from May 2024, with a growth rate 44.9 percentage points higher than the previous year and 32.5 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - The national petroleum coke production for May 2025 was 2,469,000 tons, with Yunnan's share being 1.3% of the total [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1] Core Insights - International oil prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions, including OPEC+ production adjustments and potential U.S. sanctions on Russia [2][8] - As of September 12, 2025, Brent and WTI oil prices were $66.99 and $62.69 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.27% and 1.33% from the previous week [2][29] - The oil and petrochemical sector showed a mixed performance, with the sector down 0.41% while the broader market (CSI 300) rose by 1.38% [9][12] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.99 per barrel, up $1.49 (+2.27%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $62.69 per barrel, up $0.82 (+1.33%) [2][29] Offshore Drilling Services - As of September 1, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 372, a decrease of 1 from the previous week [38] U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 72,000 barrels per day from the previous week [57] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 416, up by 2 rigs from the previous week [57] U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing averaged 16.818 million barrels per day, down by 51,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.90%, up 0.6 percentage points [69] U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 830 million barrels, an increase of 4.453 million barrels (+0.54%) from the previous week [78] Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [2]

Core Insights - The Xinjiang region is experiencing significant development in its power transmission capabilities, particularly through the ±1100 kV Changji Converter Station, which enhances the efficiency of electricity transmission across multiple provinces [1][2] - The Jiquan DC project has successfully integrated various energy sources, including coal, wind, and solar power, with a growing proportion of renewable energy being transmitted [2] - The collaboration between local government and companies like TBEA has been crucial in advancing technology and supporting sustainable development in the energy sector [2][3] Group 1: Infrastructure and Technology - The Changji Converter Station is a key component of the Jiquan DC project, with a total line length of 3,293 kilometers and an annual electricity transmission capacity exceeding 62 billion kWh [1] - TBEA has developed the highest voltage level and most advanced technology in the industry with its ±1100 kV converter transformer, showcasing the company's leadership in the power transmission sector [2] - The company has overcome over 20 technical challenges related to converter valves and transformers, demonstrating its innovation capabilities [2] Group 2: Resource Utilization and Innovation - The transformation of crude oil into specialized transformer oil at PetroChina Karamay has addressed issues related to corrosion, heat dissipation, and insulation, significantly increasing the value of the product [3] - The development of dielectric cooling liquids by Karamay Petrochemical has extended the application of oil products, contributing to the local cloud computing industry [3] - The region is shifting from resource dependency to innovation-driven development, reflecting a broader trend of industrial transformation in Xinjiang [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Bohui Co., Ltd. (SZ 300839) held its 28th meeting of the fourth board of directors on September 11, 2025, to discuss the proposal for issuing A-shares to specific targets for the year 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Bohui Co., Ltd. is as follows: self-produced refined petroleum products account for 99.16%, materials account for 0.57%, and trade accounts for 0.26% [1] - As of the time of reporting, the market capitalization of Bohui Co., Ltd. is 4.3 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - As of September 12, asphalt futures showed a significant decline of 2.11%, settling at 3386.00 yuan/ton [1] - The average national asphalt price this week was 3783.14 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 4.21 yuan/ton or 0.11% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 34.9%, an increase of 6.8% compared to the previous week, with a weekly production of 608,000 tons, up by 99,000 tons [2] Group 2 - In Shandong, the transition of certain refineries to residual oil has led to a noticeable decrease in inventory, with improved transaction conditions, although competition among brands remains fierce [3] - In East China, prices are relatively high, resulting in low purchasing willingness from downstream buyers, while in South China, there is an increase in reluctance to sell [3] - Overall demand is slow due to issues such as delayed funding, with a cautious purchasing attitude prevailing among downstream users and traders [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt demand continues to be weak, and the market atmosphere is dull. The crude oil price fluctuates, with high short - term uncertainty and limited guidance for asphalt price direction. The terminal demand for asphalt is poor, especially in the southern region, with an unobvious peak - season feature. The supply of asphalt spot resources in some areas has increased, suppressing market sentiment. If the rebound of oil prices is insufficient, the upward driving force for the asphalt market is limited [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On September 11, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3,463 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 252,780 lots, a net increase of 8,010 lots, and the trading volume was 186,437 lots, a net increase of 36,014 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,490 - 3,820 yuan/ton; South China: 3,480 - 3,540 yuan/ton; East China: 3,560 - 3,700 yuan/ton [1] - The asphalt prices in North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing markets dropped yesterday, while that in the Shandong market rose slightly, and the prices in other regions remained generally stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly; no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, futures - spot, and options [2] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]