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沥青周度行情分析:沥青需求低位,假期不确定性较大-20260214
Hai Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-02-14 01:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: As of the week of February 13, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 2.5 percentage points week - on - week to 29.12%, and the weekly asphalt output decreased by 22,500 tons to 442,800 tons. Some refineries in Shandong stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production, while others planned to resume production. In the Northeast, Dalian Xitai plans to resume asphalt production after the Spring Festival in April. In the Northwest, Xinjiang Karamay Petrochemical's daily asphalt output has recovered to 2,100 tons, with a planned production of about 60,000 tons in February. Although the high valuation of asphalt has declined, the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing, and continuous attention should be paid to the Venezuela event and raw material supply [5]. - Demand side: As of the week of February 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 154,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,400 tons. The开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 2%, a week - on - week decrease of 7 percentage points, and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 5%, a week - on - week decrease of 10 percentage points. During the Spring Festival holiday, rigid demand and logistics basically stagnated, traders gradually closed for the holiday, and major refineries mainly fulfilled orders [5]. - Inventory side: Asphalt refineries slightly increased their inventory by 5,000 tons, and social inventories continued to increase by 46,400 tons [5]. - Unilateral: Although the asphalt valuation has slightly declined, it is still at a high level, and the demand side remains weak. It is expected to mainly fluctuate with crude oil. Due to the high uncertainty of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to wait and see. - Cross - variety arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see for asphalt cracking arbitrage. - Spot - futures and inter - period arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Hold short put options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Angle - Refinery production status: Jincheng Petrochemical in Shandong stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production on February 11, Qilu Petrochemical did the same on February 12. Lanqiao Petrochemical will resume asphalt production after the end of equipment maintenance at the end of February, Qicheng Petrochemical will resume production on February 18, and Shengxing Petrochemical stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production on February 4. Dalian Xitai in the Northeast plans to resume asphalt production after the Spring Festival in April. Xinjiang Karamay Petrochemical in the Northwest has its daily asphalt output recovered to 2,100 tons, with a planned production of about 60,000 tons in February [5][7]. -开工率 and output: The asphalt开工率 decreased by 2.5 percentage points week - on - week to 29.12%, and the weekly asphalt output decreased by 22,500 tons to 442,800 tons [5][9][19]. - Equipment maintenance plan: Many refineries across the country are in a state of equipment maintenance, suspension of production, or production switching, including those in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, Central China, East China, the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Southwest regions [22][23]. Demand Angle - Market situation during the Spring Festival: During the Spring Festival holiday, rigid demand and logistics basically stagnated, traders gradually closed for the holiday, and major refineries mainly fulfilled orders. Different regions had different demand situations, such as demand stagnation in Shandong, slow - down in shipment in North China, and reduced market transactions in East China [26]. - Seasonal decline: As of the week of February 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume, the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt all seasonally declined to low levels. The asphalt shipment volume was 154,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,400 tons; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 2%, a week - on - week decrease of 7 percentage points; and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 5%, a week - on - week decrease of 10 percentage points [5][28][29]. - Weather impact: In the next ten days, there will be strong precipitation in the northern part of the Yangtze River Basin, and the average temperature in most parts of the country will be high but with large fluctuations in cold and warm. This may have an impact on asphalt demand [31][33]. Inventory Angle - Refinery inventory: As of the week of February 13, domestic asphalt refinery inventories slightly increased by 5,000 tons to 846,600 tons. Inventories in different regions showed different trends [36]. - Social inventory: As of the week of February 13, domestic asphalt social inventories continued to increase by 46,400 tons to 1,570,500 tons. Inventories in different regions also showed different trends [44]. Basis Angle - Recent basis changes are not significant, as shown by the basis data of different contracts such as BU02, BU05, etc. [60][61][62]. Spread Angle - It is recommended to wait and see for spread arbitrage, as shown by the spread data of different contract combinations such as BU02 - 03, BU05 - 06, etc. [74][75][76]. Profit Angle - Production profit: As of the week of February 13, the asphalt production gross profit was 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton, and the asphalt production cost was 3,216 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton. The port inventory of domestic diluted asphalt was 980,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The high valuation of asphalt has declined, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing. Attention should be paid to whether the Venezuela event affects raw material supply [89]. - Cracking spread: The asphalt cracking spread at a high level has slightly declined, as shown by the data of different contract combinations such as BU02/SC03, BU02/Brent04, etc. [91][92][93]. Warehouse Receipt Angle - Warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipts slightly increased. - Virtual - to - real ratio: The virtual - to - real ratios of contracts 04 and 05 have declined from high levels, while those of other contracts are neutral [108][109].
沥青春节假期持仓报告:供需双弱,易受原油波动影响
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 09:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is characterized by weak supply and demand and is susceptible to crude oil price fluctuations During the Spring Festival holiday, due to the potential US - Iran negotiations and the uncertainty of the results, oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly, and asphalt prices will follow suit It is recommended to participate cautiously, hold no positions during the holiday, and close the 03 - 06 reverse spread for profit [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years In February 2026, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [1] - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week In Shandong, after the price increase, the terminal demand was weak, and the shipment volume decreased significantly, with the national shipment volume decreasing 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week and was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - Crude oil impact: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic local refineries is severely restricted, which affects domestic asphalt production and costs Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price and trading: Shandong asphalt prices are stable, and the basis is still at a low level It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March Logistics gradually stops approaching the Spring Festival, and spot trading has become lighter [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.24% to 3343 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average The lowest price was 3320 yuan/ton, the highest was 3398 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5812 to 154,728 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 133 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Individually, some refineries postponed their resumption of production, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the period from January to October 2025 but was still negative In 2025, from January to December, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% in the period from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% in the period from January to November 2025 As of the week of February 6, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the period from January to November The recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand is still weak [4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]
儋州税务:以绿色税制为笔 绘就自贸港绿色发展新图景
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-12 08:58
Group 1: Core Perspectives - The article highlights the commitment of enterprises in the Yangpu Economic Development Zone towards green and low-carbon development, supported by precise tax guidance from the Danzhou Tax Bureau [1][2][3] Group 2: Green Tax System and Environmental Initiatives - The Danzhou Tax Bureau is enhancing green tax collection and management, utilizing environmental taxes and corporate income taxes to encourage companies to reduce emissions and improve efficiency [2][3] - Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co., as a leading enterprise in the Yangpu petrochemical industry, has increased its environmental investments and achieved a 100% compliance rate in pollution discharge and environmental facility operation [3] - The company has implemented measures such as rooftop solar panels and waste heat recovery, saving over 100,000 tons of standard coal annually [3] Group 3: Traditional Industry Transformation - The Danzhou Tax Bureau is promoting the transformation of traditional industries, such as energy and water supply, towards low-carbon development through targeted policies and green tax systems [4] - Yangpu New Energy Development Co. is utilizing agricultural waste for biomass heating, producing 90,000 tons of steam annually and generating over 200 million yuan in revenue [4] Group 4: Industrial Park Development - The Danzhou Tax Bureau is focusing on transforming industrial parks into zero-carbon demonstration zones, promoting the use of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power [5] - The Yangpu International Smart Supply Chain Center has achieved carbon neutrality and annually saves approximately 1,328 tons of standard coal while reducing carbon emissions by 1,473 tons [5]
【图】2025年8月广西壮族自治区石油焦产量统计分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2026-02-12 05:59
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the production statistics of petroleum coke in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region for August 2025, indicating a decrease in production compared to the previous year [1] - In August 2025, the petroleum coke production reached 42,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, but with an increase in growth rate by 1.4 percentage points compared to the same month last year [1] - The production in Guangxi accounted for 1.6% of the national petroleum coke production of 2,549,000 tons during the same period [1] Group 2 - From January to August 2025, the total petroleum coke production in Guangxi was 216,000 tons, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 36.7% [1] - The growth rate for the first eight months of 2025 was 39.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 32.1 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - Guangxi's production during this period represented 1.0% of the national total petroleum coke production of 2,083,100 tons [1]
石油焦:偏强震荡呈现结构性分化
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2026-02-12 00:38
Core Viewpoint - The petroleum coke market in China is expected to experience strong fluctuations in 2026, with a structural differentiation in supply and demand, particularly in the low-sulfur coke market, which is likely to remain tight [1] Market Performance - In 2025, the petroleum coke market exhibited a significant upward trend, with prices rising from 1615 RMB/ton on January 1 to 2598.25 RMB/ton by December 31, marking an annual increase of 60.88% [2] - The market followed an "M" shaped trajectory, with a notable price surge before the Spring Festival due to reduced supply and increased downstream stocking demand [2] - In the first half of 2025, prices fluctuated downwards as imported petroleum coke arrived at ports, leading to increased inventory and a cautious demand outlook from downstream buyers [2][3] Supply Dynamics - The growth rate of new petroleum coke production capacity is expected to slow down in 2026, resulting in limited supply increases [5] - Analysts indicate that the rapid expansion phase for delayed coking units ended in 2022, with new capacity growth from 2026 to 2030 expected to be significantly lower than the previous cycle [6] - The total new capacity for delayed coking units from 2026 to 2030 is projected to be 9.5 million tons, primarily concentrated in East China, with most projects likely to be completed between 2027 and 2028 [7] Demand Trends - The demand for petroleum coke is anticipated to grow strongly, driven by stable demand in the aluminum carbon industry and increasing orders for negative electrode materials in energy storage and power applications [8] - The calcination process remains the most critical intermediary step for petroleum coke, with significant demand from downstream industries such as prebaked anodes and graphite electrodes [8] - The negative electrode materials market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with 2025 production reaching approximately 2.95 million tons and a utilization rate of 77.6% [9] Price Outlook - The supply tightness in low-sulfur coke is expected to lead to sustained high prices, while medium-sulfur coke will rely on traditional industrial demand, and high-sulfur coke prices are likely to remain low due to fuel substitution effects [10] - Overall, the petroleum coke prices in 2026 are projected to exhibit a strong fluctuating trend, with further structural differentiation anticipated [10]
大越期货沥青期货早报-20260211
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 02:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the overall demand is currently below the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price trends and the trend of the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [13][14]. - The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price and Spread**: The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and basis of various asphalt futures contracts, as well as some inter - month spreads [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; factory inventory was 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [9][17]. - **Production and Sales**: The weekly output of sample enterprises was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The weekly shipment volume was 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% [17]. - **Profit**: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month [17]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand is currently below the historical average, with varying degrees of decline in the开工率 of different types of asphalt [8].
石油焦:偏强震荡呈现结构性分化   
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2026-02-11 02:21
Core Viewpoint - The petroleum coke market in China is expected to experience strong fluctuations in 2026, with a structural differentiation in supply and demand, particularly in the low-sulfur coke segment, which is likely to remain tight [1] Group 1: Market Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the petroleum coke market exhibited a significant upward trend, with the price rising from 1615 RMB/ton on January 1 to 2598.25 RMB/ton by December 31, marking an annual increase of 60.88% [2] - The price surge was driven by supply constraints and increased downstream stocking demand, particularly before the Spring Festival, leading to a tight supply situation [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, prices fluctuated due to an influx of imported petroleum coke and a cautious demand outlook from downstream sectors [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Analysts predict a slowdown in the growth of new petroleum coke production capacity in 2026, with limited supply increases expected [5] - The peak period for delayed coking capacity expansion ended in 2022, and the new cycle from 2026 to 2030 will see a significant reduction in the pace of capacity growth [5] - New capacity additions are primarily focused on refinery upgrades, with a projected total of 9.5 million tons of new delayed coking capacity expected from 2026 to 2030, mainly in East China [5] Group 3: Demand Trends - The demand for petroleum coke is expected to remain strong, driven by stable needs in the aluminum carbon industry and increasing orders for negative electrode materials in energy storage and power applications [6] - The calcination process remains the most critical intermediary for petroleum coke, with significant growth anticipated in the calcined coke sector from 2026 to 2027 [6] - The negative electrode materials market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with a production volume of approximately 2.95 million tons in 2025 and a utilization rate of 77.6% [6][7] Group 4: Price Outlook - The price of low-sulfur coke is expected to remain high due to tight supply, while medium-sulfur coke will rely on traditional industrial demand, and high-sulfur coke prices are likely to stay low due to fuel substitution effects [7] - Overall, the petroleum coke prices in 2026 are anticipated to show a strong fluctuating trend, with further structural differentiation expected [7]
克石化原油月加工量创历史新高   
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2026-02-11 02:13
Core Viewpoint - Karamay Petrochemical Company (referred to as KPC) reported a year-on-year increase of 40,000 tons in crude oil processing for January, achieving the highest monthly processing volume for the same period in history [1] Group 1: Production Performance - KPC's main products, including lubricants, base oils, and white oils, exceeded production and sales plans [1] - Specialty product output increased by 8.64% year-on-year, while petroleum coke production rose by 17.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company has optimized production by advancing "molecular refining," expanding crude oil resources, and optimizing the structure of incoming materials [1] - KPC strictly implements 24-hour control of production issues and three disciplinary management measures to ensure stable and optimal operation of its facilities [1] Group 3: Risk Management - The company has strengthened responsibility and system control, regularly conducting risk identification, early warning, management, and hidden danger investigation and remediation [1] - These measures provide a solid guarantee for a successful start to production and operations in the new year [1]
沥青日报:震荡运行-20260210
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 11:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand. It is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Some refineries postponed resuming production, and this week some refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical resumed asphalt production, with the operating rate increasing slightly from a low level [1][4]. - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt dropped 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. In Shandong, after the price increase, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level. Logistics gradually stopped approaching the Spring Festival, and spot trading became light [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. The discount of Venezuelan crude oil offered by Vitol China has shrunk significantly. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be much lower than before the US intervention. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1]. - Crude oil: The US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.21% to 3,350 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,340 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,379 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,502 to 156,425 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 140 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4]. - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased 0.2 percentage point compared with January - November. The recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4].
中期原料成本抬升及缺口担忧仍存
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 13:38
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have expanded and volatility has intensified. The asphalt futures market has followed the fluctuations of crude oil. The demand in various regions has gradually weakened with the cooling of the weather and the approaching of the Spring Festival. However, supported by low inventory and low supply, the spot prices in various regions have remained basically stable, and the supply-demand imbalance in the off - season is becoming more apparent. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material shortage and cost increase in asphalt production [4]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, expect high - level fluctuations and consider going long on BU2606 at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the spread between going long on BU and going short on LU; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased volatility in the asphalt market, which follows crude oil prices. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventory and supply support stable spot prices. There are concerns about future raw material shortages and cost increases [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level fluctuations, go long on BU2606 at low prices; Arbitrage: focus on the spread of going long on BU and going short on LU; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Southern Demand and Refinery Price Support**: There is still demand in the South, leading some refineries to support prices. This week, the asphalt price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the asphalt futures market are performing well, and there is some rush - work demand in the South. Low refinery operating rates are beneficial for social inventory sales [12]. - **Stable Spot Prices and Rising Futures Prices**: Geopolitical instability makes the crude oil cost fluctuate widely. Chinese refineries are seeking alternative raw materials, leading to an increase in feedstock costs. As of February 6, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was - 78.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.6 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the asphalt futures price rose in a volatile manner, while the spot market price remained stable [15]. - **Slight Decline in Asphalt Operating Rate**: The overall asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. Different regions had different changes in operating rates due to factors such as production adjustments in individual refineries [17][18]. - **Low Refinery Inventory**: The refinery inventory remained at a low level. The inventory in different regions changed due to factors such as production, demand, and contract delivery [20][21]. - **Increased Social Inventory**: Social inventory increased steadily due to winter storage resource warehousing. However, there was still some rush - work demand in the South, which affected the local inventory level [23]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Chain Data**: It includes data on spot and futures prices, spreads, and profits. For example, on February 6, 2026, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3386 yuan/ton, and the Brent 15:00 closing price was 68.36 US dollars/barrel. The operating rate of refineries was 31.62%, the refinery inventory rate was 23.95%, and the social inventory rate was 25.63% [26].