| 权益类证券大宗交易(协议交易) | | | | | | | 团 下载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 (元) | 成交量 (万股/万份) | 成交金额 (万元) | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 2025-11-07 | 002493 | 荣盛石化 | 10.80 | 100.00 | 1,080. 〔机构专用 | | 中国国际金融股份 有限公司上海分公 그 | 11月7日，荣盛石化大宗交易成交100万股，成交额1080万元，占当日总成交额的1.01%，成交价10.8 元，较市场收盘价10.8元持平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical's stock has reached a new high in trading volume since October 9, 2024, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 1: Trading Performance - As of 14:43, Rongsheng Petrochemical's trading volume was 1.017 billion RMB, marking a new high since October 9, 2024 [2] - The latest stock price increased by 4.66%, with a turnover rate of 1.01% [2] - The previous trading day's total volume was 361 million RMB [2] Group 2: Company Background - Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was established on September 15, 1995, with a registered capital of 9.989 billion RMB [2]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from Zhaochuang Information indicates that during the current retail price adjustment cycle for refined oil (from October 27 to November 10), international crude oil prices have shown a narrow fluctuation and a downward trend in average values, leading to a significant decrease in the crude oil price change rate, which is expected to result in a retail price increase for refined oil, although the anticipated increase is narrowing [1] Group 1 - The crude oil price change rate as of November 6 is reported at 3.12%, suggesting an expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 135 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] - The price adjustment window is set to open on November 10 at 24:00, with one working day remaining before the adjustment [1] - The probability of a price increase for refined oil is high, but the expected increase margin is likely to further narrow before the adjustment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase as refineries have recently increased production schedules [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average and is affected by the off - season, resulting in less - than - expected and sluggish demand [7]. - The cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken in the short term due to the decline in crude oil prices [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 3085 - 3133 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, the total planned production of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 331,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98%. The sample enterprises' output is 556,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 608,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.05%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt is 11.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 15.0301%, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 33%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, unchanged from the previous month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the decline of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On November 6th, the spot price in Shandong is 3100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking state, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a shift from long to short, showing a bearish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used for spread trading analysis [22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in cross - commodity price analysis [33]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profit differences between different production processes [42]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which can reflect the supply situation in the market [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply of raw materials [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall supply capacity [49]. - **Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025, which can affect the cost and supply of asphalt [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025, which can reflect the operating efficiency of the production side [58]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which can affect the supply in the market [60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025, which are important indicators for analyzing the overall inventory situation [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which can reflect the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can affect the domestic supply and demand balance [73]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It presents the historical spread trend of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025, which can be used for import cost analysis [76]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025, which can be related to the demand for asphalt [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025, which can affect the demand for asphalt [85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the downstream construction demand [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It presents the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the production and demand situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the demand in different application scenarios [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It presents the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the downstream demand for asphalt [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104].

Core Viewpoint - The company has significantly increased the yield of transformer oil base oil through technical optimizations and operational improvements, responding to the rising market demand driven by accelerated domestic power infrastructure construction [1][2]. Group 1: Production Enhancements - The yield of transformer oil components from the first set of atmospheric distillation units has increased from 10.5% to approximately 12%, enhancing raw material utilization [1]. - The hydrogenation treatment unit has doubled its output of transformer oil base oil since July, with the product yield rising from 8% to around 20%, achieving a historical high [2]. Group 2: Technical Innovations - The company has implemented a series of technical measures, including optimizing operational parameters and introducing a new refining process to efficiently recover previously underutilized transformer oil components [1]. - The second set of precision distillation units focuses on controlling raw material properties and optimizing operational processes to maximize the utilization of effective components during production [1]. Group 3: Market Impact - The company has established a normalized production increase model for transformer oil base oil, ensuring stable production capabilities across the entire supply chain from raw material assurance to product delivery [2]. - The continuous supply of qualified transformer oil base oil is filling market gaps and providing solid energy support for domestic power infrastructure construction, emphasizing the company's commitment to "increased production without quality degradation" [2].

贸易商基差 300 200 100 0 12/1 10/1 -100 -200 山东基差(+80) 华乐基差(镇江库) 华南基差(佛山库) U乐县差 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 21 3/1 10/1 11/1 -100 1 1 -200 -300 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/7 山东基差 (+80) 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 2020 2022 2019 2021 -2023 - 2024 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 11/1 -200 -300 s 加安期货 周度变化 5 75 35 =1 -7 1 -135 61663 -3490 -2430 -1.5 -150 -130 -60 -100 -28 41 2025 124 沥青早报 -2019 -2024 -2021 -2022 2020 =2023 -2025 2019 -2024 -2025 -2021 =2023 ·2020 -2022 BU12-03 BU12-01 200 300 250 150 200 150 10 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of Anhui Baoli New Materials Trading Co., Ltd. marks Baoli International's strategic expansion into the Anhui market and the enhancement of its asphalt business network [1][3] - The new company will leverage Baoli International's resources, technical expertise, and experience in the asphalt sector to optimize the supply chain in Anhui and surrounding areas [3] - Baoli International aims to localize its operations and professionalize its expansion in the Anhui market, which is expected to significantly improve market responsiveness and service capabilities, thereby unlocking greater business growth potential [3] Group 2 - The move is part of Baoli International's broader strategy to solidify its industry advantages in the asphalt business following the acquisition by Chizhou Investment Holding Group [1][2] - The company is positioned to engage in asphalt asset investments, major project bidding, and daily market operations in the Anhui region through its subsidiary's independent legal entity status [3] - This initiative is seen as a critical step in establishing a stable foundation for exploring innovative avenues and enhancing new production capabilities [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of fluctuating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but is still at a relatively low level in recent years, and the expected production in November has decreased. The downstream industry's start - up rate has mostly increased, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continues to decline and remains at a record low. The crude oil price fluctuates, and the forward low - price resources of refineries are released, causing the asphalt futures price to show a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The asphalt production rate last week increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% month - on - month, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected domestic asphalt production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year [1]. - Most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries increased last week. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather [1]. - The shipment volume of the main refineries in North China increased significantly last week. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% month - on - month to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and is still at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations. OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price fluctuated. The forward low - price resources of refineries were released intensively, and the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price showed a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.05% to 3,109 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,103 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3,167 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 1,885 to 201,642 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 9 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% month - on - month, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - From January to September, the investment in national highway construction decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but is still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - As of the week of October 31, most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, and is restricted by funds and weather [4]. - From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. The new social financing in September was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less year - on - year due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and is still at the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contracts of SHFE fuel oil futures and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose at night. The FU and LU prices fluctuated weakly following the crude oil trend, with an unclear short - term trend. The high - low sulfur spread rebounded from the bottom, indicating a marginal change in the strength - weakness pattern [1]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened recently, with the crack spread and monthly spread weakening and relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit has relieved local supply pressure, and the maintenance of Kuwait's Azur refinery has led to a phased decline in shipments. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipments from Kuwait in November are 0 tons, compared with 55500 tons in October. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain short - term repair conditions, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.15% at 2731 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.58% at 3296 yuan/ton [1]. - The high - low sulfur spread has rebounded from the bottom, and the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened with relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, local supply pressure has been relieved, and Kuwait's shipments are expected to decline in November [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish; Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2]. - Cross - variety strategy: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes of Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot, swaps, and domestic fuel oil futures [3][4][11][13]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in fuel oil supply and demand indicate a mixed outlook, with low-sulfur fuel oil supply tightening while high-sulfur fuel oil remains stable, influenced by geopolitical factors and refinery operations [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - As of November 4, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts at 45,730 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, while fuel oil warehouse receipts stood at 46,460 tons, also unchanged [1]. - In October, there was a notable decrease in high-sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia (-570,000 tons) and Iran (-200,000 tons), while Iraq (+650,000 tons) and Mexico (+370,000 tons) saw increases, indicating a slight contraction in overall export volumes [1]. - The CEO of Saudi Aramco noted that fuel demand in the U.S. and Europe is supporting healthy refining margins [1]. Group 2: Market Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the recent decline in Russian gasoline and diesel exports, along with maintenance at Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery, has led to an increase in the diesel crack spread in Asia, potentially tightening low-sulfur supply [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil inventories remain relatively ample, with stable inflows from Russia expected to continue into Asia. November's overall supply of fuel oil in Singapore is anticipated to remain sufficient [2]. - Demand for low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is lacking momentum for growth, while high-sulfur fuel oil demand remains stable. However, strong refining margins for high-sulfur fuel oil may suppress refinery raw material demand [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Southwest Futures indicated that the recovery of fuel oil supply in Singapore is bearish for fuel oil prices, while sanctions on Russia and reduced trade tensions between China and the U.S. could support prices [3]. - The strategy suggests focusing on short-selling opportunities in the main fuel oil contracts [3].