1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The report presents the trading volume and open interest data of the commodity options market, including the overall market and different sectors such as agriculture, energy and chemicals, black metals, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals and new energy. The overall trading volume of the market this week was 6,628,465.8, a decrease of 0.95% from last week, and the open interest was 7,083,253, a decrease of 0.24% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.48%, while the trading volume of other sectors decreased to varying degrees [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the quantitative data of commodity options, including the at - the - money volatility, 60 - day quantile, skew, and 60 - day skew quantile of various options. For example, the at - the - money volatility of corn options is 8.65%, and the 60 - day quantile is 13.33% [15]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.61 Various Option Data - For each type of option (such as corn options, soybean meal options, etc.), the report details the closing price, trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and skew of the main and secondary contracts. For example, for corn options, the total trading volume of the main contract this week was 145,658, an increase of 48,066 from last week, and the volume PCR was 0.4574, a decrease of 0.0707 from last week [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant information provided Group 3: Option Quotes - The daily price increase rates of call options for tin, caustic soda, and copper are 145.46%, 114.29%, and 39.01% respectively. The daily price increase rates of put options for log, styrene, and asphalt are 62.50%, 54.94%, and 40.30% respectively [1]. Group 4: Option Positions - The daily changes in call option positions for soda ash, glass, and methanol are 28,697, 19,552, and 18,395 respectively. The daily changes in put option positions for caustic soda, PTA, and glass are 24,635, 18,672, and 14,859 respectively [2]. Group 5: Option Position Put - Call Ratio PCR - High - position PCR varieties include apple (1.6364), offset printing paper (1.2648), and propylene (1.0963). Low - position PCR varieties include soda ash (0.2516), live pigs (0.2569), and alumina (0.2755) [5]. Group 6: Option Trading Volume Put - Call Ratio PCR - High - trading - volume PCR varieties include apple (1.6044), offset printing paper (1.1722), and iron ore (1.1403). Low - trading - volume PCR varieties include ethylene glycol (0.1602), Chinese dates (0.183), and lead (0.2236) [6]. Group 7: Daily Selections - Call option selections include alumina (ao2605C2900), sugar (SR605C5300), and peanuts (PK605C8000). Put option selections include ethylene glycol (eg2605 - P - 3550), industrial silicon (si2605 - P - 8100), and plastic (l2605 - P - 6500) [7]. Group 8: Near - Expiration Options - For call options of near - expiration options, such as cotton (CF603C14800), the remaining days are 2, the option closing price is 22.0, and the break - even target price is 14,825.0 with a break - even target increase rate of 1.02%. For put options, such as cotton (CF603P14600), the break - even target price is 14,552.0 with a break - even target decrease rate of - 0.84% [8][9].

Group 1: Option Market Quotes - The daily price changes of call options for various commodities are as follows: asphalt 88.61%, corn starch 59.32%, liquefied petroleum gas 34.88%, p - xylene 21.31%, alumina 15.97%, corn 15.71%, fuel oil 14.54%, methanol 11.73%, short - fiber 9.96%, PTA 9.63% [1] - The daily price changes of put options for various commodities are as follows: caustic soda 90.67%, log 79.07%, palladium 47.03%, platinum 35.39%, tin 33.04%, nickel 31.24%, silver 27.03%, copper 22.04%, rebar 19.59%, coking coal 18.08% [1] Group 2: Option Positions - The daily changes in call option positions for various commodities are as follows: methanol 42,604, caustic soda 19,694, glass 17,313, soda ash 15,825, silver 13,395, asphalt 6,713, rapeseed meal 5,885, coking coal 5,587, soybean meal 4,790, ethylene glycol 3,320 [2] - The daily changes in put option positions for various commodities are as follows: PTA 8,361, methanol 6,189, alumina 4,191, cotton 3,781, caustic soda 2,834, styrene 2,239, rebar 1,355, silicomanganese 1,351, rapeseed meal 1,264, crude oil 1,103 [2] Group 3: Option Position Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - High - position PCR varieties: apple (1.6057), offset - printing paper (1.192), propylene (1.1382), bottle chips (1.0699), short - fiber (1.0328), cast aluminum alloy (1.0007), synthetic rubber (0.9576), iron ore (0.9511), lithium carbonate (0.9433), soybean No. 2 (0.8643) [5] - Low - position PCR varieties: caustic soda (0.2383), alumina (0.2431), live pigs (0.2615), soda ash (0.2619), red dates (0.2978), ethylene glycol (0.3744), methanol (0.3936), coking coal (0.3943), lead (0.3956), log (0.4008) [5] Group 4: Option Trading Volume Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - High - trading - volume PCR varieties: propylene (1.4211), silver (1.3878), nickel (1.2476), iron ore (1.1227), industrial silicon (1.0666), polysilicon (1.011), copper (0.9758), lithium carbonate (0.9645), zinc (0.9487), aluminum (0.9379) [6] - Low - trading - volume PCR varieties: alumina (0.1701), ethylene glycol (0.1962), red dates (0.2064), coking coal (0.2945), corn (0.3587), ferrosilicon (0.364), corn starch (0.3642), methanol (0.3754), silicomanganese (0.389), asphalt (0.4081) [6] Group 5: Daily Selections - Call options: alumina (ao2605C2900, trend degree 45, put - call ratio 0.24, remaining days 77), crude oil (sc2604C470, trend degree 37, put - call ratio 0.54, remaining days 35), sugar (SR605C5300, trend degree 35, put - call ratio 0.49, remaining days 66), asphalt (bu2604C3550, trend degree 23, put - call ratio 0.49, remaining days 47), apple (AP605C9900, trend degree 23, put - call ratio 1.61, remaining days 49), silicomanganese (SM605C5900, trend degree 21, put - call ratio 0.47, remaining days 66), glass (FG605C1140, trend degree 19, put - call ratio 0.41, remaining days 66), PVC (v2605 - C - 5100, trend degree 19, put - call ratio 0.46, remaining days 70) [7] - Put options: ethylene glycol (eg2605 - P - 3550, trend degree - 55, put - call ratio 0.37, remaining days 70), lead (pb2604P16000, trend degree - 55, put - call ratio 0.4, remaining days 47), iron ore (i2605 - P - 740, trend degree - 55, put - call ratio 0.95, remaining days 70), rebar (rb2605P3050, trend degree - 55, put - call ratio 0.44, remaining days 77), pulp (sp2605P4950, trend degree - 53, put - call ratio 0.86, remaining days 77), industrial silicon (si2605 - P - 8300, trend degree - 53, put - call ratio 0.49, remaining days 61), silver (ag2604P18500, trend degree - 53, put - call ratio 0.83, remaining days 47), caustic soda (SH605P2040, trend degree - 53, put - call ratio 0.24, remaining days 66) [7] Group 6: Near - Expiry Options - Call options: cotton (CF603C14800, remaining days 3, option closing price 42.0, break - even point 14845.0, break - even increase 1.26%, option doubling point 14890.0, doubling increase 1.57%), glass (FG603C1000, remaining days 3, option closing price 11.5, break - even point 1012.5, break - even increase 1.76%, option doubling point 1025.0, doubling increase 3.02%), etc. [8] - Put options: cotton (CF603P14600, remaining days 3, option closing price 67.0, break - even point 14530.0, break - even decrease - 0.89%, option doubling point 14460.0, doubling decrease - 1.36%), glass (FG603P990, remaining days 3, option closing price 9.5, break - even point 979.5, break - even decrease - 1.56%, option doubling point 969.0, doubling decrease - 2.61%), etc. [9]

1. Market Overview - The total trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8,927,530.8, up 0.4% from last week, and the total open interest was 9,142,747, up 0.02% [5]. - The trading volume of agricultural products options was 1,480,074.0, up 0.58%, and the open interest was 3,149,035, up 0.04% [5]. - The trading volume of energy and chemical options was 4,184,971.8, up 0.89%, and the open interest was 3,674,765, up 0.15% [5]. - The trading volume of black options was 340,558.0, down 0.65%, and the open interest was 738,944, up 0.12% [5]. - The trading volume of precious metal options was 812,581.6, down 0.97%, and the open interest was 334,994, down 0.37% [5]. - The trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy options was 2,109,345.4, up 0.42%, and the open interest was 1,245,009, down 0.21% [5]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the implied volatility, 60 - day quantile, skew, and 60 - day skew quantile of the at - the - money options for various commodities such as corn, soybean meal, and methanol [15]. 2.2 - 2.61 Specific Commodity Options - For each of the 61 types of commodity options (e.g., corn options, soybean meal options), the report details the closing price, price change, remaining trading days of the main and secondary contracts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, 10 - day historical volatility (HV - 10), 20 - day historical volatility (HV - 20), and skew. For example, in corn options, the main contract's closing price was 2271, down 29, with 14 remaining trading days [16].

Group 1: Report Structure - The report includes sections on asphalt market trend review, upstream crude oil trend analysis, asphalt supply and demand analysis, supply - demand balance sheet prediction, asphalt option analysis, technical and seasonal analysis, market outlook, and related stock price and return statistics [4] Group 2: Supply Analysis - Asphalt raw materials have shifted to high - cost quota crude oil [4] - Domestic asphalt refinery operations have been continuously restricted [4] - Asphalt imports have declined significantly [4] Group 3: Demand Analysis - During the "15th Five - Year Plan", the incremental investment in highway construction is expected to further decline [4] - The growth of asphalt road demand has continued to slow down [4] - The sluggish real - estate market has curbed the waterproofing demand for asphalt [4] Group 4: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet provides data on asphalt production, imports, initial inventory, total supply, domestic demand, exports, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory changes from January to December 2025, with some data for November and December being estimates [37] Group 5: Price Seasonality - The monthly price change statistics of asphalt from 2015 to 2025 show significant fluctuations, with different trends in each month and year [53] Group 6: Related Stocks - The report lists the stock abbreviations, codes, latest prices, and year - to - date returns of multiple asphalt - related stocks, such as Huajin Co., Ltd. with a 6.45% return and Longzhou Co., Ltd. with a 125.53% return [57]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Short - term, after a rapid price drop, the spot and futures are stabilizing near integer levels. The overall supply of asphalt has increased due to the resumption of production at some refineries this week. Demand has improved as prices declined, mainly consuming social inventory, with no significant end - of - peak - season performance. The inventory structure has improved, with a slight increase in refinery inventory and a decline in social inventory. The cost of crude oil has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the spot basis has been weakening. In the long - term, demand in the north will end as the temperature drops, while in the south, post - rainfall catch - up demand may boost consumption. The peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Short - term, attention should be paid to winter storage, and the adjustment of refinery prices may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Due to geopolitical disturbances in crude oil, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Asphalt Price and Risk Management Price Information - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.33% [2]. - On November 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3240 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2][6][9]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, for a long spot position: - Short 25% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Sell 20% of call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position: - Buy 50% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Sell 20% of put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Group 5: Other Information - There are various seasonal charts including asphalt 12 - contract basis seasonality in different regions (Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast), asphalt futures month - spread seasonality (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt refinery inventory rate seasonality, domestic asphalt social inventory rate seasonality, and asphalt warehouse and refinery warehouse receipt quantity seasonality [10][11][13][15][17][18][20][22][23].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report dated November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall supply of asphalt is decreasing due to refinery maintenance and suspension of production by some major refineries, but the resumption of production by Shengxing Chemical and the planned resumption of Jincheng Petrochemical will increase market supply. The demand is weak, mainly consuming social inventory, and the short - term peak season shows no unexpected performance. The cost - end crude oil is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is continuously weakening. In the short term, asphalt is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to trading rhythm. Long - term demand in the north will end with the drop in temperature, while the south may see increased consumption due to catch - up work [3] Group 4: Price and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.42% [2] Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) at a 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at a 20% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low standing inventory for procurement, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at a 20% hedging ratio with an entry range of 25 - 35 [2] Group 5: Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - No positive factors are clearly mentioned in the report Negative Factors - The asphalt consumption enters the off - season, and demand is under pressure. Shengxing Chemical has resumed production, and Jincheng Petrochemical has a production resumption plan [8] Group 6: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on November 12, 2025, was 3020 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3340 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The North China spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The South China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Crack Spread - The Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot to Brent crack spread was 59.8899 yuan/barrel, with a daily increase of 3.4658 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 31.0984 yuan/barrel [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better-than-expected performance. In the short term, due to increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short positions after the futures price reaches the resistance level. In the medium to long term, demand in the north will gradually end as the temperature drops, while in the south, the rush - repair demand may boost overall consumption after the rainfall decreases. The raw material shortage and high cracking spread situation persist, and the spot basis continues to weaken, indicating a gradual decline in demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.38% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.08% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 call option at 30 - 40 yuan with a 20% ratio to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 put option at 25 - 35 yuan with a 20% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3. Core Contradictions - Influenced by news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen. Although the short - term impact on Venezuelan crude oil shipments is not significant, the market is worried about asphalt raw material supply. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The cracking spread remained high due to raw material shortages. Crude oil prices rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand [3]. 4. Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela; Shandong's Shengxing and Lanqiao refineries plan to shut down for asphalt production; Sino - US tariff tensions may ease; The US canceled the "Trump - Putin meeting", imposed more sanctions on Russia, and the US is purchasing strategic petroleum reserves [5][6]. Bearish Factors - OPEC continues to increase production [6]. 5. Price and Basis Data - On October 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 30 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week. The basis and cracking spread data also showed corresponding changes [7].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing price fluctuations that follow the trends of crude oil and coal, with a focus on whether undervalued chemical products will rebound significantly [1] - For PTA, the current spot processing fee is consistently below 150 RMB/ton, while the breakeven point exceeds 250-300 RMB/ton, indicating a potential for processing fee recovery due to the negative basis [1] - New production facilities have been delayed, impacting the processing fees for the PTA industry, which has a capacity of over 80 million tons, suggesting that the current processing fees are unsustainable [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure from crude oil continues, with geopolitical risks needing attention [1] - Various chemical products are experiencing different market dynamics, such as methanol port inventory accumulation slowing down and urea transactions being limited [1] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with macroeconomic factors providing only temporary boosts to chemical prices, leading to an overall oscillating trend [1]