Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report dated November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall supply of asphalt is decreasing due to refinery maintenance and suspension of production by some major refineries, but the resumption of production by Shengxing Chemical and the planned resumption of Jincheng Petrochemical will increase market supply. The demand is weak, mainly consuming social inventory, and the short - term peak season shows no unexpected performance. The cost - end crude oil is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is continuously weakening. In the short term, asphalt is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to trading rhythm. Long - term demand in the north will end with the drop in temperature, while the south may see increased consumption due to catch - up work [3] Group 4: Price and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.42% [2] Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) at a 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at a 20% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low standing inventory for procurement, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at a 20% hedging ratio with an entry range of 25 - 35 [2] Group 5: Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - No positive factors are clearly mentioned in the report Negative Factors - The asphalt consumption enters the off - season, and demand is under pressure. Shengxing Chemical has resumed production, and Jincheng Petrochemical has a production resumption plan [8] Group 6: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on November 12, 2025, was 3020 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3340 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The North China spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The South China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Crack Spread - The Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot to Brent crack spread was 59.8899 yuan/barrel, with a daily increase of 3.4658 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 31.0984 yuan/barrel [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better-than-expected performance. In the short term, due to increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short positions after the futures price reaches the resistance level. In the medium to long term, demand in the north will gradually end as the temperature drops, while in the south, the rush - repair demand may boost overall consumption after the rainfall decreases. The raw material shortage and high cracking spread situation persist, and the spot basis continues to weaken, indicating a gradual decline in demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.38% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.08% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 call option at 30 - 40 yuan with a 20% ratio to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 put option at 25 - 35 yuan with a 20% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3. Core Contradictions - Influenced by news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen. Although the short - term impact on Venezuelan crude oil shipments is not significant, the market is worried about asphalt raw material supply. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The cracking spread remained high due to raw material shortages. Crude oil prices rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand [3]. 4. Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela; Shandong's Shengxing and Lanqiao refineries plan to shut down for asphalt production; Sino - US tariff tensions may ease; The US canceled the "Trump - Putin meeting", imposed more sanctions on Russia, and the US is purchasing strategic petroleum reserves [5][6]. Bearish Factors - OPEC continues to increase production [6]. 5. Price and Basis Data - On October 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 30 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week. The basis and cracking spread data also showed corresponding changes [7].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing price fluctuations that follow the trends of crude oil and coal, with a focus on whether undervalued chemical products will rebound significantly [1] - For PTA, the current spot processing fee is consistently below 150 RMB/ton, while the breakeven point exceeds 250-300 RMB/ton, indicating a potential for processing fee recovery due to the negative basis [1] - New production facilities have been delayed, impacting the processing fees for the PTA industry, which has a capacity of over 80 million tons, suggesting that the current processing fees are unsustainable [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure from crude oil continues, with geopolitical risks needing attention [1] - Various chemical products are experiencing different market dynamics, such as methanol port inventory accumulation slowing down and urea transactions being limited [1] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with macroeconomic factors providing only temporary boosts to chemical prices, leading to an overall oscillating trend [1]