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Group 1 - The "Seven Giants" of the US stock market are experiencing a breakdown, with only Alphabet and Nvidia outperforming the S&P 500 index in the past year [2][3] - The market is shifting towards a more selective investment approach, moving away from blind investments in the entire sector to targeted bets on companies that can demonstrate AI's impact on their business [3][6] - The correlation among the "Seven Giants" has collapsed, with their stock price movements no longer synchronized, despite all having trillion-dollar valuations [6][8] Group 2 - The AI trading logic has evolved, with some investors expecting AI benefits to spread to sectors like healthcare, while others continue to invest heavily in chip manufacturers or energy companies [7] - Companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are investing hundreds of billions in training new AI models and expanding cloud capabilities, while Nvidia remains a leader in the chip market for advanced AI models [8] - Tesla's stock has significantly underperformed due to a slowdown in electric vehicle sales, and its retail trading activity has dropped by 43% compared to two years ago [12][8] Group 3 - Despite the performance divergence, the "Seven Giants" still hold significant market influence, collectively accounting for about 36% of the S&P 500 index's market capitalization [13] - Historical trends show that popular investment groupings can become outdated, with no current alternative to the "Seven Giants" emerging yet [13]

Core Viewpoint - The release of Claude Code has reignited concerns about the disruption of the software industry by AI, leading to a significant decline in U.S. software stocks, marking one of the worst starts to the year in recent history [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, a basket of SaaS stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley has dropped by 15%, following an 11% decline in 2025, marking the worst opening performance since 2022 [1]. - Software stocks are currently trading at a record low valuation of 18 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, significantly below the past decade's average of over 55 times [1]. - Companies like ServiceNow Inc. have seen their stock prices fall to multi-year lows, while Intuit Inc. experienced a 16% drop, the largest weekly decline since 2022 [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Many buy-side institutions believe there is "no reason to hold" software stocks amid the disruptive uncertainty brought by AI, with no visible catalysts for valuation recovery in the short term [4][6]. - The release of the "Claude Cowork" service by Anthropic has intensified fears among investors regarding the future growth prospects of software companies [5][6]. Group 3: AI Integration Challenges - Most software manufacturers have not demonstrated significant appeal in their AI products, with Salesforce and Adobe struggling to show revenue impact from their AI initiatives [7]. - Existing software companies need to exhibit accelerated growth to drive stock price rebounds, which appears unlikely in the short term [7]. - In contrast, other tech sectors, particularly semiconductor companies, are expected to see substantial profit growth, with projections of nearly 45% profit growth in 2025 and 59% in 2026 [7][8]. Group 4: Valuation Discrepancies - Despite low valuations, there remains a divide in market sentiment regarding the future of software stocks, with some analysts optimistic about a rebound by 2026 due to stable customer spending and attractive valuations [8]. - Barclays and Goldman Sachs predict that rising AI adoption will expand the total addressable market for software companies, potentially benefiting them in the long run [8]. - Wealthspire's chief market strategist notes that while the sector is not yet a clear buy opportunity, it is approaching a more attractive point for investment [9].

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the need for macro policy certainty to address various uncertainties in 2026, with a recommended asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [1][4]. Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index fell by 0.57% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures decreased by 0.44%. Thermal coal futures dropped by 0.34%, and iron ore futures remained flat. The expected yield for bank wealth management products remained stable at 1.85%, while the annualized yield for Yu'ebao decreased by 2 basis points to 1.00%. The yield on ten-year government bonds fell by 4 basis points to 1.84%, and active ten-year government bond futures rose by 0.27% [2][12][39]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies. Bonds are recommended for underweight due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect. Currency is also underweight, with yields expected to fluctuate below 1.5%. Commodities are recommended for standard allocation, with attention to fiscal spending in 2026 [4][13][39]. Economic Data Insights - In December, new social financing increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 910 billion yuan. M2 money supply grew by 8.5% year-on-year. Exports in December saw a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, while imports rose by 5.7% [20][21]. Industry-Specific Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the TMT sector, with the leading indices being the ChiNext Index and the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Board Index, which rose by 1.55% and 2.18%, respectively. The computer and electronic components industries showed significant gains, while the defense and agriculture sectors faced declines [39][41]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China has introduced a series of monetary policy measures to support high-quality economic development, including lowering various structural monetary policy tool rates and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises. The report indicates that there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026 [21][46].

宏观新闻 1、中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局1月17日联合发布通知称，商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房 贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 2、多名中国公民在柬失联失踪，中国驻柬埔寨大使汪文斌约见柬副首相。汪大使表示，中方高度重视 保护在柬中国公民安全及合法权益，敦促柬方采取切实措施严打针对中国公民的非法拘禁、暴力伤害等 犯罪行为及网络诈骗活动，提高营救效率，确保在柬中国公民安全。 3、东部战区新闻发言人徐承华陆军大校表示，1月16日至17日，美"菲恩"号导弹驱逐舰、"西尔斯"号海 洋测量船过航台湾海峡。中国人民解放军东部战区组织海空兵力对美舰过航行动全程跟监警戒，有效应 对处置。 6、央广网17日发布财经评论文章称，2026年开年以来，A股两融余额屡创新高，市场交投活跃度持续 攀升。当火热情绪退潮，留给市场更多的应该是冷静思考：上市公司与其蹭热点、炒作股价，不如扎实 修炼内功，持续提升经营质量与信息披露水平。只有真正成为符合高质量发展要求的市场主体，才能穿 越周期波动，实现公司与投资者的共赢，让A股能够实现"慢牛""长牛"型健康发展，共享中国经济高质 量发展的红利。 7、资深投资人麦朴思表示，在经历 ...

Group 1 - The broad-based index ETFs experienced significant net outflows, totaling 212.6 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 seeing a net outflow of 103.4 billion yuan, while 117 industry-themed ETFs attracted over 1 billion yuan in net inflows, particularly in software and non-ferrous metals sectors [2][7] - SpaceX's valuation has surged nearly threefold in two years, reaching 800 billion dollars by the end of 2025, driven by the rapid growth of its Starlink user base, which increased 114 times in four and a half years, establishing a multi-layered commercial monetization system [2][7] - Huabao Fund's heavy investment in NIO has led to dissatisfaction among investors due to the company's ongoing losses and the fund's underperformance compared to benchmarks, highlighting issues with active management capabilities [2][7] Group 2 - China has achieved a significant breakthrough in chip manufacturing with the successful development of its first series-type high-energy hydrogen ion implanter, marking a milestone in self-sufficiency in key semiconductor technologies [3][8] - The annual electricity consumption in China is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth and indicating improvements in both economic stability and energy structure [3][8] - The sales of major German automotive brands (BBA) in China have collectively declined, with Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi experiencing year-on-year drops of 19%, 12.5%, and 4.9% respectively, as they face challenges in the new energy and smart vehicle sectors [3][8] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has recognized outstanding contributions from inspection and enforcement teams, emphasizing a commitment to maintaining a high-pressure stance against illegal activities in the capital market [4][9] - Elon Musk is seeking damages ranging from 79 billion to 134 billion dollars from OpenAI and Microsoft, alleging that OpenAI has deviated from its non-profit mission and that their partnership constitutes fraud, which both companies have denied [4][9] - The People's Bank of China has announced a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial property loans to 30%, aimed at accelerating inventory reduction in the real estate market and adapting to changing supply and demand dynamics [5][9]

1、 中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局发布通知，调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例政策，商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷款最低首 付款比例调整为不低于30%。 中国人民银行各省级分行、国家金融监督管理总局各省级派出机构根据辖区各城市政府调控要求，按照因城施策原 则，在全国统一的最低首付款比例基础上，自主确定辖区各城市最低首付款比例下限。 2、 马斯克已正式向法院提起诉讼，要求OpenAI及其合作伙伴微软赔偿790亿美元至1340亿美元。 指控称，OpenAI背弃其非营利创始使命，转向营 利模式并与微软深度结盟的行为构成欺诈。本案即将于4月下旬在加州奥克兰开庭。 1、 2025年我国全社会用电量历史性突破10万亿千瓦时，达到10.4万亿千瓦时，同比增长5%。 这一数字在全球单一国家中尚属首次，相当于美国全 年用电量两倍多，超过欧盟、俄罗斯、印度、日本四个经济体年用电量总和。 2、 工信部修订发布《优质中小企业梯度培育管理办法》，自2026年4月1日起实施。 《办法》首次将科技型中小企业纳入梯度培育范围，未来的优 质中小企业将包含科技和创新型中小企业、专精特新中小企业和专精特新"小巨人"企业。 3、 海关总署 ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel's EMIB interconnect solution demonstrates advantages over traditional 2.5D technology in advanced chip packaging design, showcasing its application in various products and its potential for next-generation chips [1][14]. Group 1: EMIB Technology and Applications - Intel's EMIB technology has been implemented in several of its products, including Ponte Vecchio, Sapphire Rapids, Granite Rapids, Sierra Forest, and the upcoming Clearwater Forest series [1]. - The company emphasizes its advanced packaging capabilities, which include large-scale packaging using EMIB and other proprietary technologies, specifically designed for data center solutions [1][12]. - EMIB technology allows for efficient and cost-effective connections between multiple complex chips, supporting both 2D and 3D expansions, which traditional 2.5D methods cannot achieve [12][14]. Group 2: Comparison with Competitors - Competitors like TSMC utilize 2.5D and 3D packaging technologies that rely on silicon interposers and TSV (Through-Silicon Vias) for interconnections, which can increase design complexity and costs [3][7]. - Intel points out the drawbacks of 2.5D packaging, such as additional costs for silicon used solely for interconnections and limitations in chip size and flexibility [7]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Industry Position - Intel's advancements in EMIB, including the "T" type packaging and Foveros packaging, have attracted attention from industry giants, intensifying competition in the chip manufacturing sector previously dominated by TSMC [14][15]. - The company aims to leverage its advanced packaging solutions to establish a foothold in the foundry business, particularly with the 14A process node designed for third-party customers [28]. - Intel's upcoming products, such as the Jaguar Shores and Crescent Island GPU, are critical for regaining market share, with a focus on securing orders from third parties [30].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened positively with all three major indices rising: Dow Jones up 0.11%, Nasdaq up 0.47%, and S&P 500 up 0.22% [1] - AST SpaceMobile, a U.S. satellite communications company, surged by 6.2% after confirming its qualification as the main contractor for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's "SHIELD" project [1] - ASML increased by 1.6%, with Morgan Stanley projecting a potential 70% rise as chip manufacturers ramp up spending to meet soaring AI demand [1] - Micron Technology saw a gain of over 5%, following the purchase of 23,200 shares of common stock by board member Teyin Liu, totaling approximately $7.8 million [1]

Group 1 - Ford is in discussions with BYD for battery supply for hybrid vehicles produced at its overseas factories, with no agreements reached yet [1] - BYD is the world's leading electric vehicle manufacturer by sales [1] Group 2 - Song Xuan, Vice President of Public Relations at Xibei, has left the company for personal development reasons, following significant pressure from past events [2] Group 3 - Damai Entertainment has officially entered the museum sector by launching a collaboration plan with various museums to create innovative exhibitions [3] - The plan aims to enhance exhibition marketing, content production, and ticketing systems in partnership with museums [3] Group 4 - Major smartphone manufacturers including Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Transsion have lowered their annual shipment forecasts due to rising upstream storage costs, with Xiaomi and OPPO reducing orders by over 20% [4] - Huawei is considering price reductions for certain product lines to capture market share despite the challenges posed by rising storage prices [4] Group 5 - Dingdong Maicai is expanding its operations by opening a new warehouse in Yancheng, Jiangsu, as part of its strategy to strengthen its presence in the Jiangsu market [5] - The company has opened over 200 new front warehouses in the past two years, with more than 60% located in lower-tier cities [5] Group 6 - MediaTek has launched the Dimensity 9500s and 8500 mobile chips, with the 9500s featuring a flagship 3nm process and a high-performance CPU [6] - The Dimensity 8500 offers a 25% increase in peak performance and a 20% reduction in power consumption compared to its predecessor [6] Group 7 - Meituan has released its first open-source "Reconsideration" model, which significantly reduces training costs for adapting new tools in complex tasks [7] - The new model supports simultaneous execution of tasks by eight "brains" and is available for free on the LongCat website [7] Group 8 - Mitsubishi Corporation announced the acquisition of U.S. shale gas assets for $7.53 billion, aiming to strengthen its position in the U.S. energy market [9] Group 9 - Huawei's CEO of the Intelligent Automotive Solutions BU expects over 80 models equipped with Huawei ADS to be launched this year, with significant user engagement metrics shared [10] Group 10 - TSMC's Chairman expressed concerns about power supply issues affecting AI development and the company's ability to expand production capacity [11] Group 11 - China's power and energy battery sales are projected to grow by 63.6% in 2025, with total sales reaching 1,700.5 GWh [11] - The report indicates that power batteries account for 70.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 51.8% [11] Group 12 - Spain is expected to receive a record 97 million international tourists in 2025, marking a 3.5% increase from the previous year [12] - The tourism sector's contribution to employment has also increased, with a 2.4% rise in jobs related to tourism, reaching 2.75 million [12]