Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.3 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million, up 44% [1]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 6.5 billion, a 10% increase, but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42% due to goodwill impairment [1]. - The company is focusing on its core strategy of "focusing on the main business, 1+N brand, all-channel marketing, and internationalization" to adapt to market changes and seize development opportunities [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's self-operated revenue is projected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 7%, with a gross margin of 32% [1]. - Franchise revenue is expected to reach 3.3 billion, an increase of 32%, with a gross margin of 17% [1]. - Wholesale revenue is anticipated to be 200 million, up 7%, with a gross margin of 7% [1]. - Fashion jewelry product revenue is expected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 1%, while traditional gold product revenue is projected to be 2.9 billion, an increase of 30% [2]. User Base and Digital Management - The company has attracted over 20 million members, with 85% of its core consumer group being born in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, indicating strong appeal among younger demographics [5]. - The company has made significant advancements in digital management, optimizing supply chain structures and enhancing operational efficiency through digital retail applications [6]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted profit forecast for the company indicates net profits of 470 million, 630 million, and 800 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.71, and 0.90 [13]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 26.1% in 2025, followed by 25.9% in 2026 and 27.2% in 2027 [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [8][21]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.3 billion in Q1 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million, up 44% year-on-year [1]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 6.5 billion, a 10% increase, but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42% due to goodwill impairment [1]. - The company is focusing on its core strategy of "focusing on the main business, 1+N brand, all-channel marketing, and internationalization" to adapt to market changes and seize development opportunities [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's self-operated revenue is projected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 7%, with a gross margin of 32% [1]. - Franchise revenue is expected to reach 3.3 billion, an increase of 32%, with a gross margin of 17% [1]. - Wholesale revenue is anticipated to be 200 million, a 7% increase, with a gross margin of 7% [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from fashion jewelry products is expected to be 3 billion, a decrease of 1%, while traditional gold products are projected to generate 2.9 billion, a 30% increase [2]. - The company has successfully integrated cultural elements with modern fashion in its product offerings, creating a strong market presence with unique designs [4]. User Base and Digital Strategy - The company has attracted over 20 million members, with 85% of its core consumer group being post-80s, 90s, and 00s, indicating strong appeal among younger demographics [5]. - The company has made significant advancements in digital management, optimizing supply chain structures and enhancing operational efficiency through digital retail applications [6]. Financial Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts, estimating net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 470 million, 630 million, and 800 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.71, and 0.90 [13].

周大生（002867.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.03 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.60/9.97 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.97 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.96 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.90 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 53.6 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 周大生 沪深300 相关研究报告 《经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄 势能—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.1 《二季度终端销售承压，费用投入拖 累业绩表现—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，关注后续品牌矩阵优化 纺织服饰/饰品 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 受金价上涨影响，公司 2024 ...

纺织服饰/饰品 周大生（002867.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.03 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.60/9.97 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.97 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.96 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.90 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 53.6 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 周大生 沪深300 相关研究报告 《经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄 势能—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.1 《二季度终端销售承压，费用投入拖 累业绩表现—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，关注后续品牌矩阵优化 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 公司发布年报、一季报：2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan in 2024. The gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.8% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant revenue drop of 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, although the gross margin increased by 10.6 percentage points to 26.2% due to rising gold prices and product/channel optimization [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and channel structure to enhance performance in 2025, with expected revenue growth of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan and net profit growth of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan. The dividend payout was 0.95 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.32% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 26.1% to 2.5 billion yuan [2] Channel Performance - **Self-operated Offline**: Revenue grew by 7.8% to 17.44 billion yuan in 2024, with 353 self-operated stores, but Q1 2025 revenue declined by 16.29% to 5.27 billion yuan [3] - **Self-operated Online**: Revenue increased by 11.42% to 27.95 billion yuan in 2024, but saw a decline of 6.71% to 5.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [4] - **Franchise Business**: Revenue dropped by 23.26% to 91.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a further decline of 58.63% to 15.84 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [5] Product Performance - Revenue from gold jewelry and embedded jewelry decreased by 16.62% and 17.36% respectively in 2024, while gross margins were affected by rising gold prices [10] - The company plans to launch new products in 2025 to stimulate demand, focusing on both gold and non-gold categories [10] Financial Projections - The company expects a revenue increase of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 14 times [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit drop of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on product and channel optimization to improve performance amidst a challenging consumer environment [5][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan, while the gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, but gross margin increased significantly by 10.6 percentage points to 26.2% due to rising gold prices and product/channel structure optimization [2] Channel Performance - **Self-operated Offline**: Revenue grew by 7.8% to 17.44 billion yuan in 2024, with a net increase of 22 self-operated stores to 353 [3] - **Self-operated Online**: Revenue increased by 11.42% to 27.95 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on enhancing e-commerce capabilities [4] - **Franchise Business**: Revenue declined by 23.26% to 91.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant drop in performance expected to continue into 2025 [5] Product Performance - Revenue from gold jewelry and embedded jewelry decreased by 16.62% and 17.36% respectively in 2024, with a focus on optimizing product structure in 2025 [10] - The company plans to launch new products to stimulate demand in the gold category and enhance development in silver and jade products [10] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit growth of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan [11] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 10.43 billion yuan, 11.50 billion yuan, and 12.78 billion yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been adjusted from "Buy" to "Hold" [6][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.48 billion, a year-on-year decline of 32.0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 million, down 23.1% year-on-year [1][3] - The decline in performance is attributed to weak demand and a shift in consumer spending towards gold products, impacting the demand for diamond-set products [1][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 377% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online self-operated revenue for 2024 is 240 million, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, while offline direct sales revenue is 1.115 billion, down 37.0% [2] - In Q1 2025, online self-operated revenue reached 80 million, a significant increase of 80.75% year-on-year, while offline direct sales revenue was 290 million, down 16.7% [2] Channel Strategy - The company has closed 155 stores in 2024, with a net closure of 21 stores in Q1 2025, resulting in a total of 352 stores at the end of Q1 2025 [3] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is 65.5%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the lower margin of gold products [3] Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 100 million, 120 million, and 150 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 100, 85, and 69 [3][5] - The company’s total revenue is expected to decline by 32.01% in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 4.21% in 2025, before recovering in subsequent years [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [3][6] Core Views - The company's retail sales decline continues to narrow, with a 11.6% year-on-year decrease in RSV for FY2025Q4, showing improvement compared to FY2025Q3 [1][3] - The company is expected to experience a high double-digit revenue decline for FY2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 2.4% to HKD 6.342 billion [3][5] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For FY2025Q4, the mainland RSV decreased by 10.4%, attributed to macroeconomic fluctuations and high gold prices affecting same-store sales, alongside a continued net store closure strategy [2][3] - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, RSV fell by 20.7%, with same-store sales down 22.5%, primarily due to changes in consumer behavior and reduced spending by mainland tourists [3][11] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2025 is expected to decline by 19.3%, with net profit projected at HKD 6.342 billion, reflecting a 2.4% decrease year-on-year [5][14] - The report adjusts net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to HKD 6.342 billion, HKD 7.249 billion, and HKD 8.217 billion respectively, with a corresponding FY2025 PE ratio of 15 times [3][5] Store Operations - The company closed 395 stores in mainland China during FY2025Q4, focusing on improving operational efficiency and profitability [11][3] - As of March 2025, Chow Tai Fook operates 6,423 stores globally, with a strategy to optimize store performance by closing underperforming locations while opening new, higher-efficiency stores [11][3]

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 随着4月底临近，上市公司正迎来一季报的密集披露期。通常来讲，一季报作为上市公司每年首份公开 披露的业绩报告，对全年经营具有较强的前瞻性指引作用，因其不仅能够有效反映当下行业和公司的经 营状况，而且也能体现对未来经营的预期。我们以A股和港股总市值超过200亿元的所有上市企业，以 及其它具有行业代表性的公司为样本，梳理卖方分析师的盈利预测后，发现以下三个领域当前展现出了 明显的景气改善迹象： 1 AI产业链代表的科技行业 AI产业链代表的科技行业 数据来源：万得、淡水泉投资，选用数据区间为2024年1月1日至2025年4月18日。 超越经济周期、具有独立成长逻辑的优质公司 在宏观经济仍面临不确定性的大环境下，各行各业开始涌现出越来越多超越经济周期、具备独立成长逻 辑的优质公司。以储能产业链为例，虽然行业仍存在供给过剩的情况，但是部分龙头公司凭借全球化产 能布局在一定程度上规避关税影响，同时依靠先进技术带来的成本优势，海外产能充分受益于海外需求 增长带动的储能订单释放，形成量利 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 随着4月底临近，上市公司正迎来一季报的密集披露期。通常来讲，一季报作为上市公司每年首份公开 披露的业绩报告，对全年经营具有较强的前瞻性指引作用，因其不仅能够有效反映当下行业和公司的经 营状况，而且也能体现对未来经营的预期。我们以A股和港股总市值超过200亿元的所有上市企业，以 及其它具有行业代表性的公司为样本，梳理卖方分析师的盈利预测后，发现以下三个领域当前展现出了 明显的景气改善迹象： 1 AI产业链代表的科技行业 AI产业链代表的科技行业 超越经济周期、具有独立成长逻辑的优质公司 数据来源：万得、淡水泉投资，选用数据区间为2024年1月1日至2025年4月18日。 "以旧换新"政策的受益行业 政策也在经济恢复中起到了明显的推动作用，尤其是对商品消费的支持效果。自去年起，" 以旧换新 "推动家电和汽车需求快速增长，新能源乘用车国内市场渗透率从6月份开始连续7个月超过50%，家电 和音像器材零售额增速从9月份开始连续4个月保持在20%以上。今年以来，新增的两轮车补贴也有显 ...