Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $25.12, down from a previous $27.88, reflecting a 27x PE for 2025, which is higher than the global comparable company's average of 22.7x [4][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a 54.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, reaching 31.13 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations by 7% [1]. - The Gross Transaction Value (GTV) increased by 55.5% year-on-year to 1.14 trillion RMB, also surpassing expectations by 9% [1]. - The revenue growth across different segments includes existing homes (47.5%), new homes (72.7%), home decoration (12.8%), and rental services (108.7%) [1]. - Adjusted net profit decreased by 21.6% year-on-year to 1.34 billion RMB, falling short of expectations by 40%, primarily due to one-time expenses [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach 110.04 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 17.74% [6][22]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is 8.12 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 29.6% from previous estimates due to rising personnel costs and a declining take rate [4][22]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in market share in the existing home segment, projecting a 5-7 percentage point increase in market share in first-tier cities [2][13]. Segment Performance - The existing home business outperformed expectations with a 47.5% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, and GTV growth of 59.1%, particularly strong in first-tier cities [2]. - The new home business also exceeded expectations with a 72.7% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, and GTV growth of 49.3% [2]. - The home decoration segment showed a 12.8% year-on-year revenue growth, with a significant increase in contract amounts [3]. Operational Efficiency and Innovations - The company is leveraging AI tools to enhance operational efficiency, including AI-driven customer service and property management systems, which have shown improvements in operational metrics [15][18]. - The home decoration business is expected to achieve quarterly breakeven due to improved supply chain management and the introduction of new product offerings [3][16][17]. Market Context - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, particularly in existing homes, driven by favorable policies and a significant increase in transaction volumes [13]. - The rental business has seen a substantial increase in managed properties, with operational efficiencies improving customer satisfaction and reducing vacancy periods [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and 5% compared to the CSI 300 index [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that on March 19, 2025, the real estate sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index dropping by 0.10% and 0.40% respectively, while the Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 0.64% [3][4]. - China Resources Land signed a loan financing agreement for HKD 6.342 billion, which is expected to be drawn down within three months from the agreement date [9][10]. - The report notes significant land transactions, including China Overseas winning a residential land parcel in Beijing's Haidian District for CNY 7.502 billion, with a floor price of CNY 102,347 per square meter, marking a 27.93% premium [5]. Market Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector included Yatong Co., Gree Real Estate, Nanshan Holdings, Huangting International, and Huangting B, with respective increases of 10.05%, 10.00%, 4.64%, 3.31%, and 1.68% [4]. - Conversely, the top five losers were Guangming Real Estate, Yuehongyuan A, I Love My Home, Yunnan Chengtou, and China Merchants Jiyu, with declines of -5.15%, -3.09%, -2.64%, -2.62%, and -2.55% [4]. Sub-industry Ratings - The report does not provide specific ratings for sub-industries such as real estate development and operations, and real estate services [3]. Company Announcements - Jin Ke Real Estate Group announced progress on its restructuring process, with a court accepting its restructuring application [7][9]. - The first creditors' meeting is scheduled for July 25, 2024, and the company has signed restructuring investment agreements with multiple investors [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's market share is expected to continue increasing, with significant expansion in new business segments. Despite uncertainties in the real estate transaction market, the company's platform advantages and store expansion are driving market share growth. The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to drive secondary growth. The current stock price of HKD 60.0 corresponds to a PE ratio of 26.7/23.5/21.5 for 2025-2027, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue was HKD 31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of HKD 28.8 billion. This was driven by better-than-expected property transaction volumes and new home fee rates. However, the non-GAAP net profit was HKD 1.34 billion, below expectations of HKD 1.77 billion due to lower gross margins and higher-than-expected expenses [7]. - The company's GTV for existing homes in Q4 2024 grew by 59.1% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 47.5%. The GTV for new homes increased by 49.3%, with revenue rising by 72.7%. The new business segments, including home decoration and rental services, saw revenue growth of 12.8% and 109%, respectively [7][8]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to HKD 7.33 billion and HKD 8.33 billion, down from previous estimates of HKD 8.98 billion and HKD 10.37 billion. A new forecast for 2027 projects a net profit of HKD 9.14 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.5%/+13.6%/+9.7% for 2025/2026/2027, respectively. The diluted EPS is projected at HKD 2.1/2.4/2.6 for the same years [6][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's market share is expected to continue increasing, with significant expansion in new business segments. Despite uncertainties in the real estate transaction market, the company's platform advantages and store expansion are driving market share growth. The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to drive secondary growth. The current stock price of 60.0 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 26.7/23.5/21.5 for 2025-2027, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [6][8]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company reported a revenue of 311 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations. However, the non-GAAP net profit was 13.4 billion CNY, below expectations due to lower gross margins and higher expenses [7]. - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 73.3 billion CNY and 83.3 billion CNY, respectively, down from previous estimates of 89.8 billion CNY and 103.7 billion CNY. A new forecast for 2027 is set at 91.4 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.5%/+13.6%/+9.7% [6][10]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 77,777 million CNY, 93,457 million CNY, 104,460 million CNY, 116,695 million CNY, and 126,005 million CNY, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 28.2%, 20.2%, 11.8%, 11.7%, and 8.0% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 93.46 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while the adjusted net profit was 7.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.4% [1]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to rising costs and taxes, with operating costs increasing by 25.8% year-on-year, surpassing revenue growth [2]. - The company is focusing on long-term sustainable growth by increasing investments in stores and agents, which is expected to gradually improve performance [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, with an adjusted net profit of 1.34 billion yuan, down 21.6% year-on-year [1]. Operational Analysis - The company experienced growth in both existing and new housing revenues, with a notable increase in the monetization rate for new homes [2]. - The gross transaction value (GTV) for existing homes increased by 10.8%, while new homes saw a decrease of 3.3% [2]. Non-Transaction Business Growth - Non-property transaction revenue accounted for 34% of total revenue, up 9.1 percentage points year-on-year, with home decoration and rental income showing significant growth [3]. - Home decoration GTV increased by 27.3%, and rental income surged by 135%, with over 430,000 managed rental units by year-end [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 is 8.65 billion, 9.88 billion, and 10.96 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 20.0%, 14.2%, and 10.9% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23.1x, 20.2x, and 18.2x for 2025-2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a total transaction volume of 3.35 trillion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The existing home transaction volume was 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, accounting for 67.1% of total transactions. The new home transaction volume was 0.97 trillion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with a market share of 11.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023. The company's net revenue for 2024 was 93.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while adjusted net profit was 7.21 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year [1][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The second-hand housing market showed a 6% increase in transaction area in 35 key cities, while the new housing market saw a 12.9% decline in transaction area nationwide. The company, as a leading internet intermediary, is expected to benefit from the market recovery [2] Operational Efficiency - The company's operating expenses for 2024 were 19.2 billion yuan, with a fee rate of 20.5%, down 1.2 percentage points from 2023. The number of stores increased to 51,573, with active stores at 49,693, a growth of 18.3%. The number of agents reached 500,000, with active agents at 445,000, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [3] Revenue Growth from New Segments - The home decoration business generated net revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, accounting for 15.8% of total revenue. The rental business saw net revenue of 14.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 135% year-on-year, contributing to 15.3% of total revenue. The "second curve" revenue contribution reached 34%, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of 6.8 billion yuan in 2025, with an adjusted earnings per share of 1.89 yuan. The revenue for 2025 is projected to be 101.37 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% growth [11][10]

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 持续锚定居住品质升级趋势。 来源丨投中网 3月18日，科技驱动的一站式新居住服务平台贝壳（NYSE:BEKE;HKEX:2423）发布2024年第四季 度及全年财务业绩。面对不断升级的美好居住市场需求，贝壳聚焦服务品质提升，并持续投入基础设 施建设及科技研发，为长期发展做好前瞻布局。 去年年底，中央经济工作会议首提"稳住楼市"，贝壳多业务协同发力，精准承接政策利好背景下居住 需求的释放，推动业绩实现高质量增长。2024年四季度，贝壳实现总交易额（GTV）为11,438亿元 （人民币，下同），同比增长55.5%，净收入311亿元，同比增长54.1%，经调整净利润13.44亿元。 2024全年GTV 33,494亿元，同比增长6.6%，净收入935亿元，同比增长20.2%，经调整净利润72.11 亿元。 贝壳联合创始人、董事长、首席执行官彭永东表示："过去的一年，中国的房地产行业加速迈向新阶 段，客户需求转向降低决策风险和追求居住品质。我们以科技赋能服务者，构建决策最优解能力，推 动行业向服务效率跃迁。在积极的增长和优化生态策略下，2024年我们平台上的多个业务实现显 ...

Group 1 - The highest increase in commercial land prices in Japan is observed in the JR Chitose Station area in Hokkaido, which rose by 48.8%, accelerating from last year's 30.3% [1][2] - The surge in land prices is driven by an increase in foreign tourists in popular sightseeing areas and the successful introduction of semiconductor-related factories [1] - In Kinosaki Onsen, Hyogo Prefecture, commercial land in the central area increased by 20.2%, significantly up from last year's 7.0%, with new restaurants and specialty shops opening [1] Group 2 - In Nagano Prefecture's ski resorts, the demand for villas has surged due to the increase in foreign visitors, with residential land in Hakuba Village rising by 29.6%, the second highest in Japan [1] - The area around semiconductor factories is also experiencing significant land price increases, with ongoing projects for logistics facilities, hotels, and office buildings in Chitose City [2] - Real estate development companies like ES CON and CBRE are planning to establish warehouses in response to the rising demand in these areas [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments to the housing provident fund loan and interest subsidy policies in Shenzhen aim to optimize the loan process, increase loan limits, and reduce down payment ratios, thereby enhancing accessibility for homebuyers, particularly for families with multiple children and first-time buyers [1][2][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Adjustments - Shenzhen's housing provident fund loan management regulations have been officially implemented, with new policies set to take effect on March 24, 2025 [1]. - Nationwide, over 430 new policies related to the optimization of the housing provident fund have been released in 2024, with more than 20 policies introduced in 2025 [3]. Loan Limits and Subsidies - The maximum loan amount for individuals has increased from 500,000 to 600,000 yuan, while for families, it has risen from 900,000 to 1,100,000 yuan [6]. - The highest loan amounts can be further increased based on specific conditions, allowing individuals to borrow up to 1.26 million yuan and families up to 2.31 million yuan, effectively doubling the previous limits [6][7]. Down Payment and Interest Subsidies - The minimum down payment ratio for first and second homes is set at 20%, while for affordable housing, it is reduced to 15% [12]. - Interest subsidies have been enhanced, with rates increasing based on the length of contribution to the provident fund, reaching up to 20% for those with over 10 years of contributions [17]. Accessibility for Families - Families with multiple children can benefit from additional loan amount increases, with the maximum increase for first-time homebuyers raised from 20% to 40% and for multi-child families from 10% to 50% [6][14]. - The policy allows for cumulative increases in loan limits, potentially reaching a total increase of 110% [7]. Impact on Homebuyers - The new policies are expected to significantly lower the purchasing threshold and monthly payment pressures for young residents and new citizens in Shenzhen, contributing to a stable real estate market [20]. - In 2024, over 100,000 residential units were sold in Shenzhen, marking a 49% year-on-year increase, with both new and second-hand housing transactions reaching record highs [20].

证券研究报告 房地产 土地收储指引更加明晰，落地进程有 望提速 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 11 日│中国内地 动态点评 3 月 11 日，自然资源部、财政部发布《关于做好运用地方政府专项债券支 持土地储备有关工作的通知》。相较于 24 年 11 月的自然资源部文件（明确 了收地范围、价格和用途，具体可参考我们的报告《收地指引出炉，关注三 大要点》（24.11.11）），本次文件增量信息在于：1、进一步规范收地范围； 2、明确申报审核流程；3、强调资金和收益的综合平衡。根据中指院的数据， 截至 3 月 10 日，广东、四川、吉林、江西等已公示拟使用专项债券收地的 金额约 500 亿元；同时，北京、广东已率先发行用于土地储备的专项债券共 424 亿元，其中广东的 307 亿元全部用于回收闲置土地。我们预计规范文件 的持续出台有望给予地方政府更加明晰的操作指引，加速专项债券收地的落 地，从而平衡土地供需、改善房企流动性，进一步筑牢"止跌回稳"的趋势。 增量信息 1：进一步规范收地范围 本次文件指出，各地要优先将处置存量闲置土地清单中的地块纳入土地储备 计划，24 年 11 月 7 日之后供应的土地不列入存量闲 ...