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碳酸锂周报:基本面预期边际走弱,锂价或有二次探底-20250428
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 03:04
Group 1: Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. In terms of supply, some lithium salt plants had regular production cuts in April, and the resumption of production in May will increase domestic lithium salt supply. Meanwhile, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased significantly in March, and there is also an expectation of an increase in imported resources. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles under the Passenger Car Association's statistics has weakened, and the boost from the April auto show to consumption was slightly less than expected. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics remains at a low level, indicating a gap between actual consumption and enterprise expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. As the automotive consumption enters the seasonal off - season, the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. Technically, the lithium price initially bottomed out last period, but the subsequent correction was less than the previous high, and after the short - covering rebound, many long - positions also left, suggesting that trend - following long - positions are not firm. With the marginal weakening of the fundamentals, lithium prices may have a second bottoming [4]. Group 2: Market Data - Imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from $118/ton to $116/ton, a change of -$2.00 and -1.69% [5]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8.00 and -1.10% [5]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8 and -1.10% [5]. - The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.82 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.22 million yuan and -3.13% [5]. - The spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.05 million yuan/ton to 0 million yuan/ton, a change of -7.05 million yuan and -100.00% [5]. - The main contract price of lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.84 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -2.90% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) decreased from 6.93 million yuan/ton to 6.80 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.13 million yuan and -1.88% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) decreased from 7.42 million yuan/ton to 7.37 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.05 million yuan and -0.67% [5]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 96,705 tons to 95,843 tons, a change of -862 tons and -0.89% [5]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.32 million yuan/ton to 3.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.03 million yuan and -0.90% [5]. - The price of lithium cobalt oxide increased from 21.10 million yuan/ton to 21.30 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.20 million yuan and 0.95% [5]. - The price of ternary material (811) decreased from 14.95 million yuan/ton to 14.75 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -1.34% [5]. - The price of ternary material (622) decreased from 13.30 million yuan/ton to 13.15 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.15 million yuan and -1.13% [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 31,792 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 72,280 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 217,300 lots [7]. - As of April 25, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,305 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous period. Domestic production remains at a relatively low level, but with the end of maintenance in some lithium salt plants in May, domestic supply may be marginally corrected. With the ramping - up of northern salt lake resources and limited demand growth, the new supply will be internally replaced, and the cost center of lithium salt is expected to move down [7]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Among them, 12,700 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%; 4,646 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. Chile's lithium carbonate exports in March were about 23,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 8%/37%. Among them, 16,600 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 3%/38%. In the future, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina is relatively stable, and the increase in domestic resources from Argentine salt lakes is limited in the short term. The main change in imports comes from Chile's shipments. The significant increase in Chile's lithium salt shipments to China in March may push up the domestic lithium salt supply scale in May [8]. - In March, about 534,500 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Among them, 307,700 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 32.6% and a year - on - year increase of 30.5%; 51,800 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month decrease of 65.3%; 58,400 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 39.9%; 85,100 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month - on - month increase of 82.8% [8]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of April 25, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,996 tons, with an operating rate of 59.27%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 38,378 tons, an increase of 60 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,600 tons, with an operating rate of 45.02%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,775 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous period. During the reporting period, the cathode material prices changed little. Most downstream enterprises have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and when the price broke through this time, downstream spot price - fixing during trading was more cautious. The spot market had only rigid - demand purchases, and the price stimulus to material manufacturers' purchases was less than before. Currently, some material manufacturers may start a second price - increase negotiation with battery manufacturers, but the price - increase results may still show quality differentiation [9][10]. - From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. Under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics, the new energy sales - to - production ratio is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is less than in previous periods. The weak resilience of demand has led to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production scheduling and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. Short - term consumption may depend on the effectiveness of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric vehicle prices, which will replace the tariff plan with a minimum pricing plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will weaken marginally, and external demand for exports is not optimistic. Technologically, there have been many breakthroughs recently. CATL announced that it will launch a new sodium battery at the end of 2025. At the same time, Great Wall Motor and Guoxuan High - tech have both made progress in solid - state batteries [11]. - As of April 25, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 95,843 tons, a decrease of about - 862 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 32,560 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 63,283 tons, a decrease of 3,722 tons from the previous period. Overall, after excluding the change in exchange inventory, the market inventory is still decreasing, showing a divergence from the significant increase in factory inventory, indicating that after the second price breakdown, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and they mainly focus on digesting existing inventory [12]. This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. The supply in May will increase due to the resumption of production in some lithium salt plants and the expected increase in imports from Chile. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has weakened, the boost from the auto show was less than expected, the sales - to - production ratio is low, and the consumption is entering the seasonal off - season. Technically, the lithium price's previous correction was less than the previous high, and long - positions left after the short - covering rebound. The increase in open interest slowed down while trading volume increased significantly [4][13]. Group 4: Industry News - The largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia obtained a mining license. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine in Keshiketeng Banner, Chifeng City, is the largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia and the largest single - tin mine north of the Yangtze River. On April 21, the Ministry of Natural Resources officially approved and granted the mining license to Inner Mongolia Verasto Mining Co., Ltd., marking the implementation stage of lithium and tin resource development and utilization in Chifeng City. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine mainly contains valuable metal elements such as lithium, tin, tungsten, and zinc, with characteristics of shallow burial, thick ore bodies, large resource reserves, and high grades. The total proven ore reserves are 55.27 million tons, including 41.98 million tons of Li2O (lithium oxide) ore, with a metal content of 576,000 tons and an average grade of 1.37% [14]. - CATL launched the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery. On April 21, CATL released the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery, a lithium iron phosphate battery. According to CATL, the battery has a range of 800 kilometers, a peak charging rate close to 12C, and a peak charging power of more than 1.3 megawatts, enabling "5 - minute charging for a range of over 520 kilometers" [14]. - Hunan Yueneng plans to invest in a 20,000 - ton lithium battery recycling project. Recently, the official website of Xiangxiang City Government in Hunan Province released the environmental impact approval decision and publicity of the "Annual 20,000 - ton Waste Lithium - Ion Battery Disassembly and Recycling Project of Hunan Yueneng Circular Technology Co., Ltd." [14]. - The second - phase project of a 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate production base started. Recently, under the strategic background of deepening new energy industry cooperation between China and Indonesia, the second - phase project of the 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate cathode material production base of Longpan Technology's (603906) Indonesian lithium source was launched in Semarang, Indonesia [15].
阳光电源涨超6%,锂电池ETF(561160)持有该股票9.28%
news flash· 2025-04-28 01:32
打包市场龙头,抢反弹就买指数ETF>> 阳光电源(300274)涨幅扩大至6.26%,锂电池ETF(561160)持有该股票9.28%,当前涨幅为0.44%,成 交额15.45万元,较昨日此时放量332.15%,近1月份额减少4800万份。 ...
出口额连续21个月居全国首位 福建锂电池“蓄能”出海
Zhong Guo Chan Ye Jing Ji Xin Xi Wang· 2025-04-27 22:15
"在技术创新方面,公司持续加大研发投入。我们密切与高校、科研机构的合作,共同攻克锂电池能量 密度提升、安全性增强、快充技术优化等关键技术难题。"该公司物流仓储部负责人刘小华介绍,今年 一季度,该公司出口货值超2.5亿美元,较去年同期实现了跨越式增长,订单已排到几个月后。 为助力福建省锂电池产业发展,厦门海关推进智慧化、集约化、便利化监管模式,上线"产品线预审 +装配线可视"远程智慧监管项目,实施并批检验、集中出证的"一站式"服务。依托智慧海关建设,联合 港口码头推行"提前申报+出口直装"模式,确保危险货物冷藏箱通关全程"不落地";为重点企业开辟"专 属通道",实施"提前申报+优先查验",进一步提升通关效率。 厦门海关相关负责人表示,将进一步畅通关企沟通渠道,紧跟企业需求和产业发展趋势,优化出口锂电 池包装检验流程,推广"绿色通道""云上监管"等便利通关模式,帮助企业实现"高周转低库存",全力支 持锂电池出口。(张文科) 目前,锂电池产业已成为福建省的优势特色产业,以宁德、厦门为南北双引擎,正领跑全球新能源赛 道。据厦门海关统计,今年一季度,福建省锂电池出口总值达305.02亿元,同比增长21.72%,连续21 ...
【光大研究每日速递】20250428
光大证券研究· 2025-04-27 13:12
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【电新】上海车展趋势观察:大电量增程、商用车电动化、宁德时代引领新技术——碳中和领域动态追踪(一 百五十五) 宁德时代引领新技术突破,骁遥双核+自生成锂/钠负极再次拉开产品代差。增程车型有望成为电动化下半 场主力,大电量增程成为趋势。重卡等商用车电动化加速。上海车展新车型发布,大电量增程、商用车电 动化等趋势有望带动锂电需求,新技术突破有望催化固态电池、钠电等主题行情。 (殷中枢/陈无忌) 2025-04-27 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【汽车】2025上海车展开幕,聚焦智能化主旋律——汽车和汽车零部件板块跟踪报告 2025上海车展开幕,智驾+机器人共振,全产业链变革加速。1)预计2025E销量提振前景依然可期, ...
亿纬锂能携多项创新技术亮相上海车展 展示大圆柱电池研发进展
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-04-27 09:43
在工艺层面,亿纬锂能称已突破四项关键技术:实现-30℃环境下25分钟快充的低温解决方案;系统成 组精度达垂直方向200μm、水平方向250μm;焊接熔深精度控制在80μm;全域发泡技术使电池包扭转刚 度超15000NM。目前,公司在大圆柱电池领域累计申请专利超2300项,覆盖15个国家。 此外,亿纬锂能针对低空飞行器领域推出分层能源方案,涵盖320Wh/kg以下的高成组效率产品及更高 能量密度的软包电池技术。公司同时发布全球化锂电回收网络"摇篮计划",在四大洲30余国布局回收网 点,构建从电池回收到材料再生的闭环体系,目前已实现累计装车超3.2万台。 据悉,亿纬锂能将持续推进大圆柱电池技术研发,并与全球车企深化合作,进一步拓展新能源技术应用 场景。 亿纬锂能副总裁江吉兵在技术分享中指出,大圆柱电池具备三方面技术特点:其一,标准化设计可提升 制造效率,系统零部件标准化率较方形电池提高10倍;其二,"固定尺寸+多元化学体系"技术路线兼容 磷酸铁锂、磷酸锰铁锂及三元锂等多种体系,支持电量、续航等参数的灵活调整,缩短电池系统研发周 期至3-6个月;其三,圆形结构设计实现全生命周期"零膨胀",减少电池系统应力管理需求。 ...
鹏辉能源(300438):短期利润承压,新品+出海提供增长潜力
Ping An Securities· 2025-04-26 07:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current stock price of 22.67 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company faces short-term profit pressure due to intense competition in the lithium battery market, but new products and international expansion provide growth potential [5][10]. - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.83%, but reported a net loss of 252 million yuan, primarily due to fierce price competition in the lithium battery market [5][9]. - The company plans to not distribute cash dividends or issue bonus shares [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 7.961 billion yuan, up 14.83% year-on-year, but a net loss of 252 million yuan compared to a profit in the previous year [5][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 1.690 billion yuan, a 5.83% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 45 million yuan [5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 12.80%, down from 16.51% in 2023, while the first quarter of 2025 showed a slight recovery to 14.19% [9][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks among the top 9 globally in terms of lithium battery shipments and is positioned as the second in China's commercial energy storage systems [10]. - The company is actively developing new products and has made significant progress in solid-state battery technology and other advanced battery technologies [10]. - The company has established nine overseas offices and is expanding its global market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia [10]. Future Outlook - The company plans to strengthen its three main business segments: energy storage, consumer products, and power systems, while enhancing its global footprint [10]. - The report has adjusted the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 140 million yuan and 250 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 320 million yuan [10].
每日速递 | 亿纬锂能2025Q1营业收入128亿元
高工锂电· 2025-04-25 11:13
02 赣锋锂业公告称,公司与杭州市拱墅区人民政府、杭州市能源集团有限公司分别签署《框架合作协议》《战略合作协议》,三方将开展产业培育和长 效发展合作,建立共赢的长期战略合作发展关系。公司拟在杭州拱墅区投资建设高比能固态电池研发及产业化基地,围绕交通领域电动化新能源产业 拓展、能源供应链拓宽、动力电池综合循环利用等领域开展合作。 03 鹏辉能源2025Q1营收16.9亿元 4月24日,鹏辉能源连续披露2024年及2025年一季度业绩情况,两段时期公司营收均实现增长。具体来看,2024年,鹏辉能源实现营收79.61亿 元,同比增长14.83%;净利润-2.52亿元;扣非净利润-3.22亿元。2025年一季度,鹏辉能源实现营收16.9亿元,同比增长5.83%;净利 润-4498.31万元;扣非净利润-8030.16万元。 ◆ 材料 ◆ GGII: 2024年中国锂电回收市场 ◆ 电池 ◆ 亿纬锂能2025Q1营业收入128亿元 01 亿纬锂能发布2025年第一季度报告, 公司Q1实现营业收入127.96亿元,同比增长37.34%; 扣非归母净利润8.17亿元,同比增长16.60%。 亿 纬锂能动力电池一季度出货达1 ...
一季度营收增长37.34%,扣非净利润增长16.60%,亿纬锂能储能电池领跑,商用车动力电池跻身头部阵营
Cai Fu Zai Xian· 2025-04-25 03:15
在消费电池方面,亿纬锂能持续领跑,新兴市场拓展加大。消费电池作为亿纬锂能的传统强项,亿纬锂 能依然保持领先地位。锂亚硫酰氯电池、SPC电容器等产品稳居国家级单项冠军地位,2024年电子雾化 器电池全球累计出货超20亿只。同时,公司在人形机器人、eVTOL(电动垂直起降飞行器)、无人机等新 兴领域完成样品交付,单月小圆柱电池产销量突破1亿只,展现出强大的市场响应能力和技术储备。 4月24日晚间,亿纬锂能(股票代码:300014)发布2025年一季报,一季度公司营收127.96亿元,同比上升 37.34%;扣非归母净利润8.18亿元,同比上升16.60%。在全球新能源汽车产业蓬勃发展和储能需求爆发 式增长的大背景下,作为锂电池领域的领军企业,公司凭借技术创新、全球化布局和战略聚焦,不仅巩 固了行业地位,更在多个关键领域实现了突破。 在储能电池方面,亿纬锂能业务增长迅猛,全球市占率稳步提升。一季度,公司储能电池出货量达 12.67GWh,同比增长80.54%,主要受益于全球储能市场需求激增及公司产品的高质量与稳定交付能 力。回顾2024年,亿纬锂能储能业务迎来迅猛增长,全年出货量达50.45GWh,同比飙升91.9 ...
亿纬锂能:2025年第一季度净利润11.01亿元,同比增长3.32%
news flash· 2025-04-24 13:14
亿纬锂能(300014)公告,2025年第一季度营业收入127.96亿元,同比增长37.34%。净利润11.01亿 元,同比增长3.32%。 ...