查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 整体观点： 1、氢氨醇+风电：在中国未来产业、26年欧盟碳关税双重利好加持下，氢氨醇作为新能源消纳和绿电非电 领域应用的重要方向有望获得更多投资；此外，全球航运业正加快脱碳转型，国际海事组织（IMO）推动 绿色燃料政策出台，绿色甲醇价格在船用需求快速提升和供给阶段性受限的情况下有望维持高位。氢氨醇 板块当前的市场预期较低，亦可与风电板块形成共振。 点击注册小程序 2、美国缺电：逻辑持续演绎，英伟达当前出货规模对应数据中心功率水平、美国实际电源与电网装机功 率能力的差值是市场博弈的重点。短期受降息预期和空头交易影响，相关标的股价整体有波动，但从趋势 来看，未来科技仍为主线，重点关注海外储能、SST等板块超跌反弹的机会。 3、国内储能：黑龙江省发 ...

"一边是新能源汽车与储能需求的'双爆发'，一边是材料企业连续三年多的'持续亏损'，这个行业的矛盾已经到了必须解决的地步。"安达科技 副总经理刘家成道出了磷酸铁锂产业的核心困境。 价格倒挂的原因协鑫锂能邓松给出了解释： "磷酸铁锂市场在 2022 年迎来一波资本热潮，结果 2023 年价格崖式下跌后，资本开始割肉自 保，无新的投资者再关注，电池厂的话语权进一步加强，材料厂难以主导定价。" 锂电行业新周期来临，动力及储能磷酸铁锂电池出货量暴增，行业市场火热，但是另外一方面磷酸铁锂作为绝对的主材已经亏损超过36个月 并且仍然在持续亏损中，磷酸铁锂材料行业正处于出货热和企业失血的"冰火两重天"！磷酸铁锂材料何时才能利润转正？ 11月18日，在工信部新闻发布中心9层， 湖南裕能、万润新能、德方纳米、安达科技、丰元锂能、浙江友山、协鑫锂电 7家磷酸铁锂企业的 代表，应行业协会邀请，前来讨论有关磷酸铁锂产业存亡的问题。 近年来，新能源汽车与储能需求呈现出爆发式增长，可增长过度带来的严重内卷又把产业链拖得精疲力竭，接单与亏损同时存在，全行业连续 亏损超 36 个月，严重影响企业能力。 这一切原因来自行业无序竞争，产能增长和实 ...

Core Insights - The price of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) has rebounded, increasing approximately 10% since early October, driven by strong demand from automotive manufacturers and battery producers, as well as a surge in global energy storage needs [2][3] - Major companies in the LFP sector are experiencing high order volumes, with production lines operating at full capacity, indicating a robust market environment [3][5] - The development of high-pressure compact LFP technology is prompting material companies to upgrade their technology and adjust production capacity structures [2][6] Price Trends - As of November 14, the average price of LFP reached approximately 38,400 yuan per ton, reflecting a cumulative increase of 3,300 yuan per ton since early October, which corresponds to a 10% rise [3] - Leading LFP producers have initiated a new round of price negotiations, increasing prices by 1,000 to 2,000 yuan per ton for certain customers, signaling a potential bottoming out of prices [3] Demand and Production - The domestic power battery installation volume in China reached 84.1 GWh in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with LFP battery installations at 67.5 GWh, up 43.7%, capturing an 80.3% market share [4] - Companies such as Hunan Youneng and Deyang Nano are reporting full order books and continuous full-capacity production, with LFP orders extending into the first half of next year [5][6] Technological Advancements - The shift towards high-pressure compact LFP technology is changing the competitive landscape, with leading firms holding technological advantages in advanced product iterations [6][7] - Companies are actively innovating and iterating their products, with Hunan Youneng's new series of high-pressure compact LFP products gaining market traction [6][7]

Core Insights - CATL's fifth-generation lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery has officially entered mass production, enhancing energy density and cycle life compared to its predecessor [3] - The new battery technology is expected to significantly improve the performance of electric vehicles [3] - The second-generation Shenxing supercharging battery, launched in April 2023, boasts an 800 km range and a peak charging power exceeding 1.3 MW [3] Group 1: Product Development - The fifth-generation LFP battery shows notable improvements in energy density, cycle life, and low-temperature performance [3] - The second-generation Shenxing supercharging battery can charge over 520 km of range in just 5 minutes and 75 km in 30 seconds, demonstrating rapid charging capabilities [3] - The battery supports full temperature range and can deliver a maximum power of 830 kW even at a 20% state of charge [3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - CATL has established partnerships with 16 automakers for the second-generation Shenxing supercharging battery, covering 39 mass-produced models, indicating a strong market penetration expected by 2025-2026 [4] - In 2024, CATL's Shenxing and Kirin batteries are projected to account for 30%-40% of power battery sales, increasing to 60%-70% by 2025 [4] - CATL maintains a leading position in the LFP battery market, with over 170 GWh shipped in the first ten months of the year, representing approximately 36.4% market share [4] Group 3: Supply Chain and Material Requirements - CATL is focusing on high-density LFP materials, frequently ordering from LFP suppliers to meet the demand for high-pressure solid LFP [5] - In September 2025, CATL made a prepayment of 1.5 billion yuan to secure LFP supply and became the controlling shareholder of Jiangxi Shenghua [6] - CATL is also constructing a 450,000-ton high-pressure solid LFP production line, expected to be operational by 2026, ensuring stable raw material supply [6]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing a significant recovery starting from Q3 2025, driven by strong downstream demand and improved capacity utilization across the sector [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first nine months of the year, Hunan Youneng reported LFP sales of 784,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.86% [2]. - The overall capacity utilization in the LFP industry has improved, with major companies operating at high loads due to strong market demand [3][5]. - The cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China reached 578 GWh from January to October, with LFP batteries accounting for 470.2 GWh, representing 81.3% of the total and a year-on-year growth of 59.7% [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The LFP market is witnessing a "volume and price increase" trend, with companies like Andar Technology reporting a robust operational status and saturated orders [3]. - The demand for LFP batteries is being driven by the growth in the electric vehicle market and the acceleration of energy storage projects, particularly in renewable energy [4][5]. - The industry is expected to maintain high levels of prosperity until 2026, supported by policy incentives and strong market confidence [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Hunan Youneng achieved a net profit of 340 million yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 235.31% [7]. - Companies like Wanrun New Energy and Longpan Technology have significantly reduced their losses, indicating an improvement in financial health [7]. - The overall profitability of LFP companies is expected to improve in 2026, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand structure [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the LFP industry will see a reduction in losses and a return to profitability by mid-2026, as high-end capacity is gradually released to meet growing demand [9]. - The ongoing upgrade to high-pressure LFP technology is expected to enhance performance and broaden application scenarios, further supporting demand growth [5][6].

Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry has shown significant improvement in the third quarter of 2025, with many companies turning losses into profits and a clear trend of recovery in the sector [1][3] Group 1: Performance of Positive Electrode Material Companies - Tianqi Lithium's revenue for the first three quarters was 7.397 billion yuan, down 26.5%, but it achieved a net profit of 180 million yuan, marking a turnaround [2] - Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of 14.625 billion yuan, a growth of 5.02%, with a net profit of 2.552 billion yuan, also a turnaround [2] - Huaneng Technology and other companies have seen significant profit increases, with Huaneng's revenue reaching 23.226 billion yuan, up 46.27%, and a net profit of 645 million yuan, up 31.51% [2][3] Group 2: Trends in Positive Electrode Materials - High-pressure compact lithium iron phosphate has become a focal point for companies, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector and advancements in technology [3][4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded, maintaining a range of 80,300 to 81,700 yuan per ton, contributing to the positive performance of many positive electrode material companies [4] - Major companies like Longpan Technology have secured large orders from leading firms, enhancing their market position [4] Group 3: Performance of Negative Electrode Material Companies - The negative electrode materials sector has also seen a recovery, with a total shipment of 201.1 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [7] - Shanshan Co. achieved a net profit of 33.14 million yuan in Q1, marking a successful turnaround, and its stock price has rebounded significantly [7][8] - Companies like BTR and Putailai are expanding their overseas business and solid-state battery technology, contributing to their recovery and growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery material industry has shown significant improvement in performance during the first three quarters of the year, with most companies turning losses into profits and a clear trend of industry recovery [3]. Group 1: Performance of Positive Electrode Material Companies - Tianqi Lithium's revenue for the first three quarters was 7.397 billion yuan, down 26.5%, but it achieved a net profit of 180 million yuan, turning losses into profits [4]. - Ganfeng Lithium reported revenue of 14.625 billion yuan, a growth of 5.02%, with a net profit of 255.2 million yuan, also turning losses into profits [4]. - Hunan Yunneng's revenue increased by 46.27% to 23.226 billion yuan, with a net profit of 645 million yuan, up 31.51% [4]. - The demand for high-pressure solid-state lithium iron phosphate has surged, driven by the booming energy storage market and the competitive landscape among major companies [9][10]. Group 2: Performance of Negative Electrode Material Companies - The negative electrode material sector has seen a recovery, with a 34.7% year-on-year increase in shipments, totaling 1.269 million tons in the first half of the year [13]. - Shanshan Co. achieved a turnaround in Q1 with a net profit of 33.14 million yuan, reflecting the company's resilience and improved market conditions [14]. - Better performance from companies like BTR and Putailai is attributed to their expansion into overseas markets and advancements in solid-state battery technology [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing demand for high-density lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, driven by advancements in energy storage and electric vehicle technologies, and discusses the investment plans of Fujilin Precision Engineering in this sector [2][3][4]. Investment and Production Plans - Fujilin Precision Engineering's subsidiary, Jiangxi Shenghua, plans to invest in a new project in Deyang-Abazhou Ecological Economic Industrial Park, aiming for an annual production capacity of 350,000 tons of new high-pressure dense LFP [2][3]. - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase targeting an annual output of 175,000 tons and the second phase also aiming for 175,000 tons [2]. Market Demand - There is a significant market demand for high-pressure dense LFP materials, with a reported monthly shipment exceeding 40,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The demand is driven by the need for larger capacity, higher energy density, and fast-charging capabilities in energy storage and power batteries [4]. Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing a shift towards fast-charging batteries, with many manufacturers announcing 800V high-voltage platform fast-charging models [5]. - Leading companies like CATL are expected to achieve mass production of 587Ah batteries next year, indicating a trend towards higher capacity batteries [6]. Production Techniques - The mainstream production methods for high-pressure dense LFP include the phosphoric acid method and the oxalic acid iron method, with the latter being favored for its efficiency and lower energy consumption [7][8]. - The oxalic acid iron method requires only one sintering process, making it more efficient, although it comes with higher costs [8]. Competitive Landscape - Major companies are rapidly expanding their production capacities for high-pressure dense LFP, with a critical period expected in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year [9]. - Companies such as Fujilin Precision Engineering, Hunan Youneng, Longpan Technology, Defang Nano, and Bangpu are all accelerating their capacity expansion efforts [9].

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing significant growth, with a focus on new technologies and ecosystem development, highlighted by the upcoming 2025 Solid-State Battery Industry Conference and Awards Ceremony in Guangzhou [4]. Industry Overview - The solid-state battery industry is set to gather over 1,000 participants at the conference, indicating strong interest and investment in this sector [4]. - The event will feature concurrent exhibitions and conferences, showcasing advancements in both solid-state and sodium battery technologies [4]. Company Performance - Hunan Youneng, a leading company in the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) sector, reported a revenue of 23.226 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the year, marking a 46.27% year-on-year increase [5]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 8.868 billion yuan, a 73.97% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 340 million yuan, up 235.31% [6]. - The company's Q3 net profit surpassed the total for the first half of the year, driven by rising iron-lithium prices and a shortage of high-density product capacity [6]. Market Dynamics - The demand for energy storage has exceeded expectations, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and sustained price increases for products [7]. - The utilization rate of LFP production capacity approached full capacity, reaching 73.46% in September, indicating a thriving industry environment [7]. - Major companies have begun raising prices due to increased demand, with LFP market prices reaching 34,800 yuan per ton as of October 28 [7]. Product Development - Hunan Youneng's LFP product shipments reached 784,900 tons in the first three quarters, a 64.86% increase year-on-year, with Q3 shipments alone at approximately 304,000 tons, up 82% [7]. - The company is focusing on high-density LFP products, which accounted for 40% of sales in the first half of the year, with expectations to increase this share to over 60% [8]. - A new research institute has been established to enhance collaboration on high-density LFP technology, which is expected to drive further demand [8]. Expansion Plans - Hunan Youneng is advancing multiple expansion projects, with new production capacities planned for its facilities in Hunan, Guizhou, and Sichuan, expected to come online between 2025 and 2026 [9]. - The company is also pursuing international market opportunities, including projects in Spain and Malaysia, which will help expand its global market share and profitability [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive performance of Hunan Youneng, a leading domestic lithium battery material company, reporting a significant net profit increase of 235.31% year-on-year to 340 million yuan in Q3 2023, marking the second-highest profit in its history, only behind the peak in 2022 [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2023, Hunan Youneng achieved an operating revenue of 8.868 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 26%, with net profit rising by 61% to 340 million yuan [7]. - For the first three quarters of 2023, the company reported cumulative revenue of 23.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 46.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 645 million yuan, up 31.51% year-on-year [8]. Market Dynamics - The rapid recovery in profitability reflects the stabilization and rebound of iron lithium material prices, alongside a structural upgrade in high-pressure solid products, leading to a "reverse involution" effect [6][9]. - The sales volume of phosphate positive materials reached 784,900 tons in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.86%, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand in the industry [9]. Product Demand - The demand for high-pressure solid lithium iron phosphate in energy storage and power sectors has surged, driving the performance rebound of Hunan Youneng [10]. - In the first half of the year, the sales volume of high-pressure solid products was approximately 193,400 tons, accounting for 40% of total sales [11]. Strategic Developments - Hunan Youneng is accelerating its international expansion and collaboration in research and development, including a project in Spain for an annual production of 50,000 tons of positive materials and a 90,000-ton project in Malaysia [15]. - The company has partnered with Geely Group to establish the "Hunan New Energy Materials Research Institute," focusing on high-pressure solid technology and manganese-based positive materials [16].