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美国7月非农:“修订风波”暴露美国就业市场脆弱性
LIANCHU SECURITIES· 2025-08-05 10:54
Employment Data - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 106,000 and the previous value of 14,000[3] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, with the previous value at 4.1% and the forecast at 4.3%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for May and June, with May's initial value of 139,000 adjusted down to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward revision of 253,000[3] Labor Market Trends - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is now only 35,000, a sharp decline from the first quarter's average of 111,000, indicating a potential overestimation of previous employment strength[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%, contributing to the stability of the unemployment rate despite job losses[10] - The number of foreign-born workers decreased by 1.241 million from January to July, while the domestic-born workforce increased by 3.073 million, affecting overall labor supply[12] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock markets fell, bond yields declined, and the dollar weakened, reflecting heightened market risk aversion[5] - The disappointing employment figures have led to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and October[5] - Key factors for the Fed's decision will include inflation data for July and August and the potential impact of political pressures from the Trump administration[15]
2025年上半年采矿业企业有12704个,同比增长1.46%
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-08-05 04:58
2025年上半年,采矿业企业数(以下数据涉及的企业,均为规模以上工业企业,从2011年起,规模以上 工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元)为12704个,和上 年同期相比,增加了183个,同比增长1.46%,占工业总企业的比重为2.44%。 相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国采矿业市场竞争态势及投资方向分析报告》 上市公司:甘肃能化(000552),新大洲A(000571),冀中能源(000937),蓝焰控股(000968), 山西焦煤(000983),电投能源(002128),首华燃气(300483),郑州煤电(600121),兰花科创 (600123),兖矿能源(600188),晋控煤业(601001),中国神华(601088),昊华能源 (601101),陕西煤业(601225) 知前沿,问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构,十数年持续深耕产业研究领域,提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力,专注于提供完善的产业解决方案,为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源:国 ...
非洲53国加入中国零关税“朋友圈”
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-08-04 19:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China is expanding its zero-tariff policy to 53 African countries, which will enhance trade relations and promote deeper industrial cooperation between China and Africa [1][3][4] - The zero-tariff policy will significantly lower barriers for African products entering the Chinese market, facilitating an increase in the variety and scale of exports from Africa [3][4][6] - In 2022, the trade volume between China and Africa reached $295.6 billion, marking a historical high for the fourth consecutive year, with China maintaining its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 years [3][4] Group 2 - The zero-tariff policy includes a wide range of products such as oil, minerals, agricultural products, and processed goods, all of which will enjoy complete tax exemption when entering the Chinese market [4][5] - The policy aims to provide equal market access for all African partners, moving from a limited opening model to a more comprehensive approach that benefits various developing countries [5][6] - The implementation of the zero-tariff policy is expected to increase exports of minerals, energy, and agricultural products from Africa to China, supporting economic diversification and industrial upgrading in African nations [6][10] Group 3 - Chinese enterprises are actively investing in African economic zones and promoting industrial chain cooperation, contributing to local tax revenue, employment, and export earnings [8][9] - The establishment of processing bases and procurement centers in Africa by Chinese companies is anticipated to enhance global capital allocation and attract more value-added industries to local markets [10] - The zero-tariff policy is expected to create competitive pressure that encourages Chinese companies to adopt advanced technologies and improve product quality, thereby fostering a mutually beneficial relationship between China and Africa [9][10]
2025年上半年蒙古经济增长率为2.4%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-04 16:50
Core Viewpoint - The economic growth rate of Mongolia for the first half of 2025 is reported at 2.4%, significantly impacted by lower-than-expected performance in the mining sector, which adversely affected related transportation, logistics, and trade industries [1] Group 1: Economic Growth - Mongolia's economic growth rate for the first half of 2025 is 2.4% [1] - The mining sector's output growth was notably below expectations, leading to negative repercussions for transportation, logistics, and trade sectors [1] Group 2: Banking Sector - The overall development of the banking sector in Mongolia is reported to be stable [1] - The top five banks in Mongolia experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 27% [1] - There was a reduction in the scale of non-performing loans across major banks, alongside a significant increase in loan applications from individuals and businesses [1] - The number of individuals opening Mongolian Tugrik accounts has also increased [1]
宏观解读报告:经济运行平稳,推动高质量发展:深圳市2025年上半年经济数据跟踪与解读
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-04 14:50
Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 18,322.26 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%[3] - The GDP growth rate in Shenzhen exceeded that of Guangdong Province by 0.9 percentage points, with Guangdong's GDP growing by 4.2%[3] Trade Dynamics - Total import and export volume in Shenzhen decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, totaling CNY 21,675.45 billion[8] - Exports fell by 7.0% to CNY 13,086.81 billion, while imports increased by 9.5% to CNY 8,588.64 billion[8] - Shenzhen's share of Guangdong's total trade rose from 46.31% in Q1 to 47.65% in H1 2025[10] Industrial Production - Industrial added value in Shenzhen grew by 4.3% year-on-year, slightly above Guangdong's 4.0%[15][16] - Key sectors such as general equipment manufacturing and electrical machinery saw growth rates of 17.1% and 8.2%, respectively[15] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen declined by 10.9%, with real estate development investment down by 15.1%[18] - Industrial technology renovation investment surged by 47.1%[18] Consumer Market - Retail sales in Shenzhen reached CNY 4,948.68 billion, growing by 3.5% year-on-year[23] - The proportion of Shenzhen's retail sales to Guangdong's total increased from 20.54% at the beginning of 2025 to 21.58% in H1[24] Financial Sector - Financial institutions in Shenzhen reported a deposit balance of CNY 141,600.14 billion, up 5.7% year-on-year[31] - Loan balances increased by 3.5% to CNY 98,469.91 billion[31] Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Shenzhen rose by 0.1% year-on-year, while Guangdong's CPI fell by 0.4%[37]
荣晖国际(00990.HK)拟购买PT AnekaTambang Resources Indonesia的60%权益
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-04 11:39
格隆汇8月4日丨荣晖国际(00990.HK)公告,于2025年8月1日,公司与(a) PT MitraUnggul Berjaya(卖 方)及(b)杨成林先生(卖方担保人)就买卖于PT AnekaTambang Resources Indonesia(目标公司)的 60%权益订立具法律约束力的谅解备忘录。 谅解备忘录载有关于公司拟购买及卖方拟出售目标公司(一家在印度尼西亚共和国注册成立的公司,持 有生产经营采矿业务许可证,可开采镍商品,覆盖位于印度尼西亚哈马黑拉岛以南的奥比群岛的608公 顷面积)60%的全部已发行股本的若干谅解及条款。 ...
美国非农数据不及预期,金价回暖
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-04 11:29
Market Overview - As of last Friday (August 1), London spot gold closed at $3362.64 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $26.42 per ounce, representing a 0.79% rise [1] - The highest gold price reached $3362.64 per ounce, while the lowest dipped to $3275.05 per ounce during the week [1] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in gold prices, with potential benefits if a rate cut is initiated [1] Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was below expectations, with an increase of 73,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 104,000 [2] - Significant downward revisions were made to the May and June data, totaling a reduction of 258,000 jobs [2] - The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, lower than expected, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell [4] - The Fed's statement acknowledged economic uncertainty and the need to monitor inflation risks, while not providing a clear response regarding a potential rate cut in September [4] Long-term Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is expected to support gold prices, as central banks continue to increase their gold reserves [7] - China's central bank reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [7] - The potential impact of the U.S. government's legalization of stablecoins may influence the demand for gold as a hedge against currency depreciation [6]
至源控股(00990) - 自愿公告 - 有关一项拟定交易之谅解备忘录
2025-08-04 11:28
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 至源控股有限公司 (前稱榮暉國際集團有限公司) (於百慕達註冊成立之有限公司) (股份代號:990) 自願公告 有關一項擬定交易之 諒解備忘錄 本公告乃由本公司根據上市規則第13.09條及證券及期貨條例第XIVA部內幕消息 條文作出。 諒解備忘錄 董事會宣佈,於二零二五年八月一日(星期五)交易時段後,本公司與(a) PT Mitra Unggul Berjaya(「賣方」)及(b)楊成林先生(「賣方擔保人」)就買賣於PT Aneka Tambang Resources Indonesia(「目標公司」)的60%權益(「擬定交易」)訂立具法律 約束力的諒解備忘錄(「諒解備忘錄」)。諒解備忘錄載有關於本公司擬購買及賣方 擬出售目標公司(一家在印度尼西亞共和國註冊成立的公司,持有生產經營採礦 業務許可證,可開採鎳商品,覆蓋位於印度尼西亞哈馬黑拉島以南的奧比群島的 608公頃面積(「鎳礦」))60%的全部已發行 ...
【数据发布】2025年1—6月份全国规模以上工业企业利润下降1.8%
中汽协会数据· 2025-08-04 08:23
Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating a challenging economic environment for the industrial sector [1][4]. Group 1: Profit Performance - In the first half of the year, state-controlled enterprises reported a profit of 1,109.12 billion yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year, while joint-stock enterprises saw profits of 2,533.04 billion yuan, a decline of 3.1% [1]. - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises achieved a profit of 882.31 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%, and private enterprises reported a profit of 938.97 billion yuan, up 1.7% [1]. - The mining industry experienced a significant profit drop of 30.3%, while the manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 4.5% [1]. Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - In the first half of the year, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating revenue of 66.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with operating costs rising by 2.8% to 57.12 trillion yuan [2]. - The operating profit margin was recorded at 5.15%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: Financial Health Indicators - As of the end of June, total assets of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 183.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, while total liabilities increased by 5.4% to 105.98 trillion yuan [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stood at 57.9%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Accounts receivable amounted to 26.69 trillion yuan, up 7.8%, and finished goods inventory was 6.60 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1% [3].
宏观深度:我们如何理解,国内“低通胀”?
Bank of China Securities· 2025-08-04 06:31
Group 1: Economic Overview - China's retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, consistent with the growth rate from January to May[18] - The average year-on-year growth rate of retail sales from June 2024 to June 2025 was 4.1%, indicating an overall upward trend[18] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate during the same period was only 0.1%, highlighting a divergence between the volume and price of consumer spending[18] Group 2: Low Inflation Factors - Low inflation is primarily influenced by weak domestic demand, external input factors, and "involutionary competition" in the market[1] - The correlation coefficient between the year-on-year growth rates of production materials and living materials, after shifting the production materials curve back by 10 months, is 0.7, indicating a strong relationship[22] - The year-on-year decline in profits for coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and black metal mining industries was 53.0%, 11.5%, and 36.2% respectively, contributing to a 5.5 percentage point drag on industrial profits in the first half of 2025[3] Group 3: Impact of Low Inflation - As of June 2025, the average yield on ten-year government bonds was 1.66%, down 44 basis points from September 2024, while the actual interest rate rose slightly to 2.84%, up 12 basis points[3] - The weak inflation level has interfered with the downward path of actual interest rates, limiting the reduction in financing costs for the real economy[46] - The correlation coefficient between urban residents' future income confidence index and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial profits from 2020 to 2024 is 0.5, indicating a positive correlation[3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include persistent inflation in developed economies, complex geopolitical situations, and slow recovery of expectations in the real estate sector[4] - The significant decline in real estate investment has negatively impacted construction industry investment growth, further affecting demand in the building materials sector[37]