热点报告——外汇期货 美国 11 月非农喜忧参半， 失业率持续抬升 走势评级： 美元：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 17 日 ★ 美国 11 月非农喜忧参半，失业率持续抬升： 美国 11 月非农新增就业 6.4 万人，超出市场预期的 5 万人，10 月 减少 10.5 万人，主要受政府裁员影响。过去 12 个月平均每月新增 7.8 万人，劳动力市场维持韧性。8 月新增就业人数由减少 4000 人 下修至减少 2.6 万，9 月由新增 11.9 万人下修至 10.8 人，合计下修 3.3 万人。失业率回升至 4.6%，高于市场预期和前值，劳动参与率 小幅回升至 62.5%；时薪环比增速 0.1%，较前值回落，低于预期的 0.3%，同比增速 3.5%，低于预期和前值。数据公布后，美元指数 和十年期美债收益率震荡下行，黄金高位震荡，美股冲高回落。 分行业而言，新增就业主要来自于：教育和医疗保健(6.5 万人）， 建筑业(2.8 万人)，专业和商业服务（1.2 万人），零售业（6200 人）。运输和仓储行业、制造业和联邦政府延续裁员态势，此前作 为主要新增就业来源的休闲和酒店业也大幅裁员。 总体而言，9 ...

当地时间周二（12月16日），美国劳工统计局发布报告称，11月的美国非农就业人数略高于预期。美联储将在明年1月举行2026年首次议息会 议。市场普遍预期，美联储继续降息的概率不大。 非农数据公布后，国际油价快速跳水，WTI原油、布油跌破60美元后加速下挫。现货黄金上扬逾20美元，最高至4330美元/盎司。 美联储继续降息概率低 就业和通胀数据是美联储货币政策制定的关键指标。在最近一次会议上，美联储将基准利率下调了25个基点，但暗示进一步降息的门槛更高。 自9月以来，美联储已连续三次降息，将基准基金利率降至3.5%—3.75%的目标区间。 11月就业数据发布后，芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具数据显示，明年1月降息概率仅为24.4%，和数据发布前变化不大。而Polymarket网站 最新预测显示，美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率78%，降息25个基点的概率21%，降息50个基点的概率1.7%。 就业数据好于预期 美国劳工统计局周二公布11月就业报告和10月的部分报告。因为联邦政府停摆，美国政府关闭了43天，无法收集足够的数据，此次劳工统计局 并没有发布10月的失业率和其他10月数据。 报告显示，11月非农就业岗位 ...

当地时间周二，美国劳工统计局（BLS）一次性公布了10月和11月的非农就业数据。 数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，好于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，高 于9月的4.4%，也略高于预期的4.5%。 但与此同时，10月就业人数大幅减少10.5万人，降幅明显超过此前市场预期的-2.5万人。由于政府停摆 期间暂停了家庭调查，BLS不会公布10月失业率等数据。 美国劳工统计局表示，无法量化政府关门对10-11月就业人数调查的影响。这也意味着，最新公布的数 据在完整性和可比性上仍存在一定不确定性。 从修正数据来看，就业市场加剧"降温"。数据显示，8月非农新增就业由-0.4万人下修至-2.6万人，9月 由11.9万人下修至10.8万人，两个月合计较修正前减少3.3万人，进一步印证了就业增长动能正在减弱。 就业结构分化明显，医疗成主力，政府部门拖后腿 多位经济学家将当前劳动力市场形容为一种"低解雇、低招聘"的状态：企业并未大规模裁员，但招聘意 愿明显趋谨慎。 部分企业认为，部分岗位未来可被人工智能替代，也降低了扩张用工的迫切性，往年年底常见的季节性 临时招聘今年明显减少。 非农坏消息，市场的好 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding expectations and indicating a stable labor market despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [1][3][4] - The job growth was primarily driven by traditional sectors, with healthcare adding 43,000 jobs and bars and restaurants contributing 37,000 jobs, while transportation and warehousing saw a decline of 25,000 jobs [3][7] - The report suggests that the labor market remains stable but cautious, with employers hesitant to make significant hiring or layoffs, reflecting a slow but steady economic pace [3][4] Group 2 - The market's interpretation of the employment report varied, with the stock market reacting positively due to better-than-expected job data, while the bond market welcomed the rise in unemployment and slower wage growth, which may keep the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December alive [3][4] - Analysts noted that the non-farm data was surprising overall, and despite downward revisions in the previous two months' data, the impact on September's figures was minimal [7] - The report on initial jobless claims showed a decrease to 220,000, indicating that employers are generally retaining their workforce despite economic uncertainties [6][7]

Economic Overview - Singapore's economy grew by 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a decrease from the revised 4.4% growth in Q2, but still above market expectations of 2% [1] - The quarterly seasonally adjusted growth was 1.3%, slightly lower than Q2's 1.5%, indicating a continued recovery trend [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing sector growth was nearly stagnant in Q3, significantly down from 5.5% in Q2, primarily due to declines in biomedical manufacturing and general manufacturing output [1] - However, the manufacturing sector showed a positive change with a 6.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, indicating adaptation to market changes [1] Construction Industry - The construction industry experienced a 3.1% year-on-year growth in Q3, a significant slowdown compared to Q2 [2] - Despite growth from public and private sector construction, the industry faced short-term pressure with a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction in Q3 [2] Services Sector - The services sector showed mixed performance, with wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and warehousing growing by 2.5% year-on-year, down from 4.9% in Q2 [2] - Core service sectors such as information and communication, finance and insurance, and professional services maintained robust growth at 4.4%, consistent with Q2's performance [2] Other Services - Other service sectors, including accommodation and food services, real estate, and administrative support, grew by 4.1% year-on-year, stable compared to Q2 [3] - The recovery of international tourist numbers significantly boosted the accommodation sector, supported by stable domestic consumption [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the resilience shown in Q3, global economic uncertainties remain a significant risk factor [3] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore decided to maintain the nominal effective exchange rate policy to balance potential inflation risks with economic growth uncertainties [3] - Long-term economic growth in Singapore will continue to be influenced by global economic conditions, trade tensions, and policy adjustments in major economies [3]

阿塞拜疆"OXU"网9月11日报道，阿塞拜疆国家统计委员会数据显示，截 至2025年8月1日，阿全国就业人员176.8万人。其中，公共部门就业人数85.8万 人，私营部门就业人数91万人。18.9%的就业人口从事贸易和汽车维修行业， 18.1%从事教育，13.8%从事工业，8.5%从事卫生和社会服务，6.8%从事建筑 业，6.3%从事社会管理和国防，4.2%从事运输和仓储，3.9%从事专业、科学 和技术活动，2.4%从事农业、林业和渔业，2.3%从事金融和保险，14.8%从事 其他经济领域。1-7月，全国人均名义月工资为1098.1马纳特（645美元），同 比增长9.5%。薪资最高的行业是采掘业、金融和保险业、信息通信业、科技和 物流运输业。 （原标题：1-7月阿塞拜疆人均名义月工资为645美元） ...

Economic Overview - Brazil's GDP grew by 0.4% in Q2 2025, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of positive growth and the highest level since the series began in 1996, with a total economic output of 3.2 trillion reais [1] - The growth rate in Q2 was lower than the 1.3% recorded in Q1, indicating a moderate slowdown, but still exceeded market expectations of 0.3%. Year-on-year, the economy grew by 2.2% [1] Sector Performance - The services sector grew by 0.6%, reaching a historical high and serving as the main driver of overall economic growth, particularly in financial services, information and communication, and transportation and storage [1] - The industrial sector saw a 0.5% increase, primarily driven by mining, especially in oil and gas extraction, although manufacturing, electricity, and construction experienced slight declines [1] - Agriculture experienced a minor decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter but showed a significant year-on-year growth of 10.1%, benefiting from strong soybean and corn harvests earlier in the year [1] Demand Side Analysis - Government consumption decreased by 0.6%, while household consumption increased by 0.5%. Investment fell by 2.2%, mainly due to weaknesses in construction and capital goods production [1] - On the external front, exports grew by 0.7%, while imports declined by 2.9% [1] Industry Insights - The manufacturing and construction sectors, closely tied to credit, are under significant pressure, while the resilience of the services sector and household consumption plays a crucial supporting role [2]

Core Insights - Dubai's GDP grew by 4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 119.7 billion dirhams (approximately 32.79 billion USD), indicating the resilience and vitality of the economy [1] Economic Performance by Sector - The healthcare and social work sector experienced the fastest growth at 26%, contributing 1.5% to GDP [1] - The real estate sector followed with a growth rate of 7.8%, accounting for 7.5% of GDP [1] - Wholesale and retail trade remains the largest single contributor to Dubai's economy, with a GDP share of 23% and a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [1] - The financial and insurance sector contributed 13.4% to GDP, growing by 5.9% [1] - The transportation and warehousing sector accounted for 13% of GDP, with a growth of 2% [1] - The manufacturing sector represented 7.3% of GDP, growing by 3.3% [1] - The information and telecommunications sector contributed 4.4% to GDP, with a growth rate of 3.2% [1] - The accommodation and food services sector accounted for 4.1% of GDP, growing by 3.4% [1] - Other activities made up 26% of GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [1]

Economic Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, Dubai's GDP reached 119.7 billion dirhams, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [2] - The growth demonstrates the resilience and vitality of Dubai's economy [2] Sector Contributions - The real estate sector experienced a significant growth of 7.8% [2] - The financial and insurance sector grew by 5.9% [2] - The wholesale and retail trade sector saw an increase of 4.5% [2] - The information and telecommunications sector grew by 3.2% [2] - The accommodation and food services sector increased by 3.4% [2] - The manufacturing sector grew by 3.3% [2] - The transportation and warehousing sector experienced a growth of 2% [2]

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]