1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution campaign, initiated by the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, is a 10 - year recurrence of the Juglar cycle. It is expected to have a profound impact on China's economy, with effects surpassing the previous supply - side reform [1][13][16]. - The anti - involution drive rapidly boosts commodity prices, which is the third and final wave of the current Kitchin cycle's upward phase, likely to last until the end of the year [2][17]. - It has a positive impact on listed companies' performance and stock prices. The A - share market shows a wealth effect, attracting more off - market funds [2][24]. - The Fed is likely to resume rate cuts in September 2025 and enter a steep rate - cut phase in 2026. This will narrow the Sino - US interest rate gap, prompting the accelerated return of China's overseas funds [2]. - Global professional investment institutions are reducing their exposure to US assets and increasing their allocation to Chinese assets [2][28][30]. - Gold is in a technical adjustment, and a major opportunity may emerge at the end of the year [2][4][31]. - The anti - involution campaign initiates an upward trend in inflation, opening up downward space for long - term treasury bonds [3][35]. - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is likely to strengthen [3][38]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Four Economic Cycles - **Kitchin Cycle**: A short - term economic cycle of about 3.5 years. The current upward phase of the Chinese Kitchin cycle started in June 2023 and is expected to peak at the end of 2025, while the US cycle will peak in Q1 2026 [7]. - **Juglar Cycle**: A medium - term cycle of 9 - 10 years, also known as the manufacturing investment cycle. China's current Juglar cycle is in the upward phase and is expected to peak in early 2027 [8]. - **Kuznets Cycle**: An economic cycle related to the housing construction industry with an average length of about 20 years. The current Chinese Kuznets cycle is expected to bottom out around 2030 [9]. - **Kondratieff Cycle**: A long - term cycle of 50 - 60 years, also called the technological innovation cycle. The current Kondratieff depression started in 2020 due to the COVID - 19 shock, is expected to end around 2030, and then enter a 10 - year recovery phase. China is the center of the current technological innovation cycle, with AI and AI humanoid robots as the representative innovations [10]. 3.2 Anti - Involution Campaign - **Campaign Initiation**: On July 1, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting called for in - depth construction of a unified national market, focusing on "five unifications and one opening". Subsequently, various industries carried out anti - involution measures [11]. - **Policy Response to the Juglar Cycle**: It is a response to the manufacturing investment cycle reaching its peak. Similar to the supply - side reform 10 years ago, its goal is to reduce overcapacity, but this time it focuses on emerging industries and the service sector [13][15][16]. - **Differences from the Previous Supply - Side Reform**: It focuses on emerging industries and the service sector, and is expected to have a more far - reaching impact on the Chinese economy [16]. 3.3 Impact on Asset Classes - **Commodities**: The anti - involution campaign drives up commodity prices, which is the third wave of the current Kitchin cycle's upward phase. Prices are expected to rise until the end of the year. After a second - wave correction in late July, they are likely to enter the main upward wave in late August [17][21][23]. - **Equities**: The A - share market shows a wealth effect, attracting off - market funds. The decline at the end of July was a pull - back after breaking through the 3,500 - point platform. The CSI 300 index will have more upward momentum, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes are expected to rise more strongly [24][39]. - **Gold**: Gold is in a technical adjustment, and a major opportunity may emerge at the end of 2025 [31][39]. - **Bonds**: The anti - involution campaign initiates inflation, opening up downward space for long - term treasury bonds [35][39]. - **Foreign Exchange**: China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB is likely to strengthen [38][39].

2025.08. 04 【今日推荐】 老百姓买国债的利息免税标准定了：每月不超过10万 国家税务总局官网近日披露一则政策指引，即《关于自然人购买国债等债券取得的利息收入适用小规 模纳税人月销售额10万元以下免征增值税政策的执行口径》。税务总局回应称，《财政部 税务总局 关于增值税小规模纳税人减免增值税政策的公告》（2023年第19号，下称19号公告）规定，截至 2027年12月31日，对月销售额10万元以下（含本数）的增值税小规模纳税人，免征增值税。经商财 政部，自然人购买新发行国债、地方政府债券、金融债券取得的利息收入，可以按照19号公告的规 定适用相关增值税免税政策。 过去七天 广东新增2892例基孔肯雅热本地病例 2025年7月27日0时至8月2日24时，广东全省新增报告2892例基孔肯雅热本地病例，未报告重症和 死亡病例。病例分布在佛山2770例，广州65例，东莞、中山各11例，深圳、江门、肇庆各6例，梅 州5例，珠海、惠州各4例，潮州2例，阳江、云浮各1例。 官方通报女司机亮证逼迫让路事件：亮证女司机非公职人员 7月31日以来，网传"农村公路惊现证件侠""会车遇奔驰女司机亮证逼迫让道"等多条视频，引 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing high growth in performance as indicated by preliminary reports, with increasing allocation value. The insurance sector is also expected to see a rise in new business value driven by an increase in value ratios. The equity market continues to rise, leading to favorable expectations for investment returns and profit growth. Current valuations imply a pessimistic long-term investment outlook, but the report considers current valuations to be safe, given the medium to long-term interest rate spread levels [2][4] - The report recommends companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have clear advantages in business models and market positions. Additionally, it suggests focusing on New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial index decreased by 2.4% this week, with a relative excess return of -0.6% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 22 out of 31 industries. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up by 4.0%, with a relative excess return of +1.0%, also ranking 21 out of 31 [5] - The market has seen a decline in activity, with an average daily trading volume of 18,096.34 billion yuan, down 2.11% week-on-week, and an average turnover rate of 2.12%, down 2.50 basis points [5] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's performance has been weak overall, with the securities sector down 3.1% this week. The report highlights that the average daily trading volume and turnover rate are above the 2024 averages, indicating a gradual recovery in brokerage business profitability [17][39] - Margin financing balances have increased to 1.98 trillion yuan, up 2.21% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in credit business [46] Investment Business - The equity market has seen an overall decline, with the CSI 300 index down 1.75% and the ChiNext index down 0.74%. The report notes that the proportion of equity investments in brokerage assets is approximately 10%-30%, while bond investments account for 70%-90% [43][44] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry reported a cumulative premium income of 37,350 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.31%. The report indicates that the premium income from property insurance was 9,645 billion yuan, up 5.10%, while life insurance income was 27,705 billion yuan, up 5.38% [21][22] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 39.22 trillion yuan as of June 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.08% [26][27]

Policy Focus - Recent policies continue to emphasize stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and combating "involution" in various sectors[2] - The Politburo meeting on July 30 confirmed the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in October to review the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals[2] - The Ministry of Finance announced a new tax policy on bond interest income, effective August 8, aimed at alleviating fiscal pressure and preventing excessive capital accumulation in interest-bearing bonds[6] Social and Economic Initiatives - The implementation of a childcare subsidy program was announced, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year until the age of three, aimed at boosting birth rates[7] - The State Council is promoting free preschool education to reduce childcare costs, with a focus on enhancing support for families with multiple children[3] Industry and Trade Policies - The introduction of "zero tariff" policies and relaxed trade management measures for the Hainan Free Trade Port aims to enhance trade efficiency and attract investment[8] - A new round of US-China trade talks has been initiated, with both sides agreeing to extend previously suspended tariffs for 90 days[5] Local Government Actions - Local governments are focusing on economic stabilization through measures such as urban renewal and artificial intelligence initiatives, with Shanghai planning a city renewal action plan for 2026-2028[9] - Beijing has allocated 10 million yuan for film viewing subsidies and is implementing various measures to support families with multiple children[10] Market Implications - The new tax on bond interest is expected to lead to a short-term decline in interest rates and create pricing discrepancies between new and existing bonds, potentially impacting the bond market negatively in the long term[6] - The emphasis on stabilizing the capital market and promoting service consumption indicates a cautious approach to economic stimulus, focusing on gradual recovery rather than aggressive measures[4]

险资长期投资试点加速落地。 近日，太保致远1号私募证券投资基金（下称"太保致远1号"）正式成立并进入运行。至此，进入运作状态的保 险系私募证券投资基金总数增至6只。 除此之外，据券商中国记者了解，险资系私募基金管理公司有望在近期进一步扩容。 又有一只基金成立 中国证券投资基金业协会披露，太保致远1号于近日成立。该基金由太保致远（上海）私募基金管理有限公司 （下称"太保致远"）担任基金管理人。 这是保险资金长期投资试点的落地案例之一。保险资金长期投资改革试点，指的是保险公司出资设立私募证券 基金，主要投向二级市场股票，并长期持有。 迄今，保险资金长期投资试点已有三批，试点金额合计2220亿元。获批参与试点的机构包括中国人寿、新华保 险、太保寿险、泰康人寿、阳光人寿、人保寿险、太平人寿、平安人寿、中邮保险及相关保险资管公司，以及 多家中小险企。 作为第二批保险资金长期股票投资试点公司之一，今年1月，太保寿险获准以契约制基金方式参与试点。 今年5月21日，太保致远成立，由中国太保集团旗下太保资产100%持股。6月23日，太保致远完成备案登记， 该基金目标规模200亿元。 随着太保致远1号进入运作阶段，意味着险资长期 ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[8] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[8] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, maintaining a similar pace to Q1[11] - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although this represented a decline of 2.0 percentage points from Q1[21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year[20] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 9.9% in Q1[20] Trade Dynamics - Total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7%[30] - The trade surplus remained high due to a "rush to export" effect amid tariff uncertainties[30] Price Indexes - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%[33] - The PPI decline was attributed to weak demand, falling costs, and overcapacity in several industries[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, showing stability compared to the previous year[40] - National public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure grew by 3.4% to 14.1 trillion yuan[46] Monetary Policy - The central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[53] - New loans in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.92 trillion yuan, with a focus on manufacturing and infrastructure sectors[58]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department's non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant miss against market expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added compared to the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - Revisions to previous months' job additions were substantial, with May and June's figures being downgraded from 144,000 and 147,000 to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - Following the disappointing employment data, President Trump ordered the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau chief, alleging manipulation of employment data for political purposes, raising concerns about the reliability of U.S. economic data [1] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from 37.7% to nearly 90% after the employment data release [2] - Economists noted that the widening cracks in the labor market are increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [2] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the employment data is a clear signal of a slowing job market, prompting a reassessment of the Fed's monetary policy stance [2]

（原标题：已清空所有美股！传奇投资家Jim Rogers重磅发声，"下一次美国危机将是我有生以来最严重 的"） 【导读】Jim Rogers：目前持有中国股票，下一次美国危机将是有生以来最严重的 中国基金报记者 吴娟娟 8月1日，传奇投资家Jim Rogers在诺亚控股于新加坡举办的"全球华人财富管理与传承"峰会上表示，目 前仅持有全球两个国家的股票，中国是其中之一，已清空所有美国股票。他认为，下一次美国危机将是 其有生以来最严重的。 Jim Rogers表示持有中国多个行业的股票，尤其看好旅游业前景。"中国所有行业都具备潜力，旅游业尤 其如此。过去几百年，中国人很少旅游。如今，中国人可以出境旅游。他们渴望看世界，外国人亦希望 了解中国。旅游业、酒店业拥有良好前景。" Jim Rogers表示："尽管最近几年中国股市表现乏善可陈，但是中国前景光明，政府正在采取措施支持经 济发展。" Jim Rogers提到了"一带一路"倡议的重要性。他说，铁路穿越世界时改变了许多国家和城市。同样 地，"一带一路"倡议将改变世界。 资产配置方面，Jim Rogers表示，他持有黄金和白银。历史经验显示，黄金和白银一直是危机时的 ...

针对相关责任人，监管对李飞、彭晓东处以终身禁止进入保险业的处罚。同时，对赵子良、洪军、贾春 伟等8名相关责任人采取禁止进入保险业1年、3年、5年、8年、10年不等的处罚。 此外监管还对李飞、赵子良等23位相关责任人进行警告并罚款共计232万元，且撤销了李飞、赵子良、 彭晓东等相关责任人的任职资格。 新京报贝壳财经记者 潘亦纯 编辑 程子姣 校对 赵琳 8月1日，国家金融监督管理总局发布行政处罚信息公示列表显示，华夏人寿及相关责任人员因报送的报 告中存在虚假记载和重大遗漏、客户信息不真实、产品宣传材料不合规、虚假列支费用、违规大幅虚增 偿付能力、违规运用资金造成重大损失等主要违法违规行为，监管吊销了华夏人寿的业务许可证。 贝壳财经记者注意到，相关责任人此前多为华夏人寿的高管，其中，被监管终身禁业的李飞、彭晓东曾 分别担任华夏人寿董事长、华夏人寿董事会秘书，赵子良则曾任华夏人寿总经理。 及时接收最新最热的推文 点击"在看"，分享热点 作为"明天系"旗下公司，近年来华夏人寿经历了一番变动。2020年7月，原银保监会宣布依法对华夏人 寿等六家机构实施接管。 2023年11月，监管批复瑞众人寿整体受让华夏人寿的保险业务 ...

小微企业是经济发展的生力军，记者昨天从金融监管总局了解到，今年以来，我国金融业对小微企业的支持持续增强，6月末全国普惠型小微企业贷款余额 同比增长12.31%，明显高于各项贷款平均增速。 数据显示，截至今年6月末，全国小微企业贷款余额87.74万亿元，其中普惠型小微企业贷款余额35.99万亿元，同比增长12.31%。今年1—6月全国新发放的 普惠型小微企业贷款平均利率比去年下降0.46个百分点。 金融监管总局普惠金融司综合处处长 何晓琳：今年上半年，金融支持小微企业融资依然保持了增量、扩面、降价的趋势，普惠型小微企业贷款余额同比增 长12.31%，对实体经济尤其是小微企业给予了良好的支持。 在当地小微企业融资协调专班工作人员来调查时，他们就把企业的需求和难点反映给了对方，专班工作人员把信息推送给银行之后，他们在2个工作日内就 获得了100万元纯信用贷款。 当记者来到企业采访时发现，高兴的不只是企业，银行也是受益方。 金融监管总局普惠金融司综合处处长 何晓琳：下一阶段要继续推进支持小微企业融资协调工作机制，同时结合国家经济形势的发展变化，把对接和帮扶的 资源向外贸、民营、科技、三农、消费等领域倾斜，充分激发各类 ...