Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently in a high-level oscillation state, with the index needing to transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to a fundamentals-driven bull market to stabilize above 4000 points [1][2] - The report assesses that most core A-share indices have a PE valuation percentile above 70%, indicating limited room for a cross-year rally due to the lack of further liquidity easing [1][2] - The report highlights that the current market structure is characterized by rapid sector rotation, with retail and social services sectors performing well, while the overall market lacks a clear mainline [1][2] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a relaxed investment mindset strategically, as only about 60% of the time in a year has a clear mainline, while the remaining 40% is often characterized by chaotic sector rotation [1][2] - The report suggests that tactical identification of clues is crucial, as new mainlines often emerge amidst confusion, and investors should avoid hasty decisions that could lead to losses [2] - The report notes that the current high-low switching market is nearing its end, and a new mainline is likely to form, with potential scenarios including tightening liquidity or new capital inflows [2] Group 3 - The report states that the A-share market's pricing structure is shifting from "new winning over old" to "new and old dancing together," indicating a focus on structural changes in technology and traditional industries [3] - It highlights that the technology sector is currently sensitive to positive news but more reactive to negative news, with AI applications being a key area for potential investment [3] - The report mentions that traditional industries are recovering from the negative impacts of the real estate sector, with profit growth expected in Q3 2025, suggesting a positive outlook for 2026 [3] Group 4 - The report indicates that the current market is experiencing a high degree of sector rotation, with the mainline clarity index at 48%, suggesting that the market is still in a chaotic state [1][2][3] - It emphasizes that the end of the high-low market phase is normal, and historical patterns suggest that such phases last about 3-4 weeks, with a focus on cross-year market positioning [1][2][3] - The report also notes that the technology sector is expected to regain its leading position in the market, particularly in the context of global AI trends and the performance of US tech stocks [3][4]

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 布局"春季躁动"行情，低吸科技成长方向 财信证券宏观策略周报（12.22-12.26） 2025 年 12 月 21 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -1.25 1.53 15.03 沪深 300 0.00 1.56 15.89 -9% 1% 11% 21% 31% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。从"日历效应"来看，从中央经济工作会议至次年全国两会召开 期间，A 股市场通常演绎"春季躁动"行情。我们统计了 2009 年至 2025 年 "春季躁动"行情表现，万得全 A 指数的平均上涨时间为 57 天，平均上涨幅 度为 18.30%，其中大盘蓝筹股在第四季度（尤其是 12 月份）表现较佳，科技 成长股在第一季度（尤其是 2 月份）表现较佳。随着 11 月份经济数据公布以 及海外三大央行利率决议落地，宏观经济数据对市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector, recommending stocks such as Han's Information, Rilian Technology, Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, Hikvision, Newland, Daotong Technology, and Haiguang Information, with Zhongke Shuguang as a related stock [3][4]. Core Insights - The domestic AI large model industry is experiencing a critical phase of accelerated technological productization and deepening capital market engagement. Volcano Engine released the Doubao large model 1.8 and the video generation model Seedance 1.5 Pro, achieving significant technological breakthroughs and reducing enterprise usage costs through innovative business models [3][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the first L3 level autonomous driving vehicle permits, marking a transition to "conditional commercial application" for autonomous driving in China. This includes specific models from Changan and BAIC Arcfox, with speed limits set for initial operations [3][4]. - Domestic GPU companies are actively pursuing capital market opportunities, with TianShu ZhiXin and BiRan Technology having passed listing hearings, aiming to raise funds for advanced chip development and market expansion. The successful listings of MoEr Thread and MuXi shares on the STAR Market have demonstrated strong market interest in domestic high-end chip sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections AI Large Model Development - Volcano Engine's Doubao large model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro have entered the global first tier in multi-modal and intelligent capabilities, with daily token processing exceeding 50 trillion [3][4]. - The listings of Zhizhu AI and MiniMax on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are expected to provide quantifiable secondary market valuation benchmarks for the large model industry [3][4]. Autonomous Driving - The issuance of L3 level permits signifies a cautious regulatory approach prioritizing safety, with vehicles' operational responsibilities assigned to manufacturers rather than drivers [3][4]. - Initial sales of these vehicles will be limited to designated operators, providing essential practical data for refining technical standards and legal frameworks [3][4]. GPU Market Dynamics - Domestic GPU firms are intensifying their efforts to enter the capital market, with TianShu ZhiXin planning to raise $300 to $400 million and BiRan Technology also pursuing a listing [3][4]. - The successful market entries of MoEr Thread and MuXi have highlighted the strong investor interest in the domestic semiconductor industry, particularly in high-end chip design [3][4].

12月22日-12月26日新股申购一览 | 公司发行市盈率 | 12.37 | 行业平均市盈率 | 26.9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同业可比公司 | 黄山旅游、丽江股份、峨眉山A | | | | 一句话亮点 | 公司依托陕西省内华清宫、华山等稀缺旅游资源 成为以"景区+文化旅游"为核心业务的旅游目F | | | | | 头企业，是5年来A股首家文旅类IPO过会公司。 | | | *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 未来一周有2只新股于周一申购，陕西旅游是5年来A股首家文旅² 过会公司，新广益是国内特种膜细分领域龙头。 | 新广益 (创业板，301687) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申购日期 12月22日 周一 | | 申购代码 | 3016 | | 计算机、通信和其 所属行业 他电子设备制造业 | | 总市值 | 24.16 | | 公司发行市盈率 28.59 | | 行业平均市盈率 | 57.9 | | 同业可比公司 | | 方邦股份、斯迪克 | | | 句话亮点 | 公司是国内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has rebounded strongly since July, with the CSI 500 Index leading the performance among major indices, driven by the technology and cyclical sectors, presenting a "dumbbell" opportunity structure [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 30, the CSI 500 Index has achieved a 34.98% increase over the past year, outperforming other major indices like CSI 800 and CSI 300 [1] - The CSI 500 Index has shown strong adaptability and ability to capture mainline opportunities, with historical performance indicating significant outperformance during various market cycles [3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly electronics and computing, has been boosted by AI breakthroughs, while cyclical sectors like steel and new energy vehicles have also strengthened due to supportive policies [2] - The CSI 500 Index allocates over 28% to technology sectors and 25% to cyclical sectors, providing both offensive and defensive positioning for investors [2] Group 3: Investment Tools - The launch of the CSI 500 ETF (code: 159500) offers investors an efficient tool to capture opportunities in both technology growth and cyclical recovery [5] - The CSI 500 ETF has seen significant net inflows, with 408 billion yuan in the past year, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in its growth potential [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The CSI 500 Index is expected to benefit from dual drivers of valuation recovery and profit growth, with projected net profit growth rates of 38.61% and 15.81% for 2025-2026 [4] - The ETF structure is increasingly favored by both institutional and individual investors due to its simplicity, transparency, and cost-effectiveness [4]

天眼查工商信息显示，近日，北京迪信通商贸股份有限公司出资200万元成立定西迪信通商贸有限公 司，持股100%，所属行业为计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业。 资料显示，定西迪信通商贸有限公司成立于2025年12月18日，法定代表人为刘亮，注册资本200万人民 币，公司位于定西市，日用百货销售、办公用品销售、家用电器销售、文具用品批发、办公设备销售、 日用品销售、卫星移动通信终端制造、光通信设备制造、移动终端设备制造、通信传输设备专业修理、 光通信设备销售、互联网设备制造、移动通信设备制造、移动通信设备销售、网络设备制造、终端测试 设备制造、通信交换设备专业修理、轨道交通通信信号系统开发、广播电视传输设备销售、5G通信技 术服务、物联网设备制造、卫星移动通信终端销售、通信设备销售、卫星通信服务、商务代理代办服务 （除许可业务外，可自主依法经营法律法规非禁止或限制的项目）。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：情报员 ...

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the retail trade sector leading the gains. The Ministry of Commerce recently held a meeting to promote the "Three New" (new consumption formats, new models, new scenarios) pilot work, providing policy support for industry recovery. The concept of "reward economy" has emerged, further boosting sentiment in the consumption sector. Currently, the overall PB (LF) of the retail trade sector is at the historical 37.0 percentile, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [1][8]. Valuation Overview - This week, the overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 21.74 times last week to 21.73 times this week, while the PB (LF) remained stable at 1.77 times [10]. - The main board's PE (TTM) increased from 17.46 times last week to 17.54 times this week, and the PB (LF) rose from 1.48 times to 1.49 times [17]. - The ChiNext's PE (TTM) fell from 72.27 times to 71.32 times, and the PB (LF) decreased from 4.27 times to 4.21 times [19]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's PE (TTM) dropped from 210.87 times to 205.59 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 5.17 times to 5.04 times [25]. Relative Valuation Analysis - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators/resource categories, decreased from 4.47 times last week to 4.28 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) fell from 4.66 times to 4.46 times [28]. - In terms of static PE (TTM), major industries such as discretionary consumption, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption and consumer staples exceeding the historical 90th percentile [32]. - From the perspective of PB (LF), industries like resources, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while discretionary consumption, midstream materials, financial services, services, and consumer staples are below the historical median [34]. Dynamic Valuation Insights - Analyzing the full dynamic PE, industries such as discretionary consumption, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption exceeding the historical 90th percentile [41]. - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like agriculture, public utilities, and oil and petrochemicals exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [59]. - The comparison of odds (full dynamic PE) and win rates (25-26 consensus expected net profit compound growth rate) shows that industries such as building materials, power equipment, media, and defense industry possess both low valuations and high performance growth [62]. ERP and Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.87% last week to 0.89% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.12% to -0.05% [63]. - The full dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares rose from 2.77% to 2.80% this week [70].

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 12 月 20 日 字节豆包 1.8 重磅发布！壁仞提交 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《 OpenAI GPT 5.2 发布！重磅中航信深 度发布！——计算机行业周报 20251208- 20251212》 2025/12/13 《计算机 2026 年策略！合合信息深度发 布！——计算机行业周报 20251201- 20251205》 2025/12/06 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@swsresearch.com 徐平平 A0230525080002 xupp@swsresearch.com 曹峥 A0230525040002 caozheng@swsresearch.com 陈晴华 A0230525100001 chenqh@swsresearch.com ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising due to favorable policy implementation and improved market sentiment. The Shanghai 50 Index performed the best with a gain of 0.3%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index saw a decline of 3.0%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is at the 85.7 percentile since 2010 [1][11][12] - The retail, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective gains of 6.7%, 2.9%, and 2.9%. In contrast, the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors lagged behind, with declines of 3.3%, 3.1%, and 1.6% [1][13][19] Group 2 - Historically, the A-share market experiences a "spring rally" almost every year, driven by factors such as abundant liquidity at the year's end and optimistic policy expectations. Since 2012, there have been 13 instances of this rally, excluding 2022 [2][19] - Key catalysts for the spring rally include adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank, the release of important economic data, and significant meetings. These events provide new operational logic and upward momentum for the market [2][19][20] Group 3 - During the "spring rally" period from 2012 to 2025 (excluding 2022), major broad indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index had average gains of 21.0% and 20.7%, respectively. The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors also performed well, with average gains of 22.2% and 21.3% during the same period [3][21][24] - Specific industries such as computers, non-ferrous metals, and machinery showed strong performance during the "spring rally," with average gains of 24.7%, 23.9%, and 22.7%, respectively [21][26] Group 4 - The 2026 cross-year market is expected to begin, with policies likely to continue supporting growth and various funds expected to flow into the market. This week, a strong market rally may indicate the start of this cross-year trend, particularly following a period of lackluster performance [4][29][30] - The central economic work conference has outlined a focus on maintaining a stable economic environment and promoting domestic demand, which is expected to bolster market confidence and attract long-term capital inflows [28][30] Group 5 - The growth and consumption sectors are highlighted for investment focus, with TMT and advanced manufacturing historically showing greater elasticity during the "spring rally." The current market environment suggests that the consumption sector may also attract attention due to its relatively low performance this year [5][35][42] - The consumption sector has lagged in performance this year, making it a potential target for "missed opportunity" funds. Recent performance indicates that sectors like retail and beauty care are beginning to show stronger gains [5][42][45]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with major indices showing mixed performance, indicating a "three changes in direction over three days" characteristic [1][56] - Future trading strategies are shifting from "defensive volatility and reduced elasticity" to "finding entry points and waiting for opportunities" as the market adjustment becomes more sufficient [1][58] - The report suggests a cautious approach to timing, advising against chasing prices and increasing costs, while setting "strike zones" based on previous index lows [1][58] Market Overview - Major indices showed mixed results this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai 50 rising by 0.03% and 0.32% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.28% [12][56] - The consumer sector showed signs of recovery, with significant gains in retail and consumer services, while technology-related sectors experienced adjustments [15][57] - Average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.74 trillion yuan, down from 1.94 trillion yuan the previous week [17][28] Sector Analysis - The consumer sector saw notable recovery, with retail and consumer services rising by 6.58% and 4.40% respectively, while non-bank financials increased by 2.99% [15][57] - Conversely, technology-related sectors such as electrical equipment and electronics saw declines, with drops of 3.09% and 3.02% respectively [15][57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector, which is showing signs of underperformance but expanding market share, and suggests monitoring the home appliance sector, which historically performs well in December [1][58] - Individual stocks in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and AI application sectors that are relatively low in price should be considered, along with low-performing stocks above the annual line [1][58]