Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread increases on September 25, with major contracts such as shipping European routes, international copper, and glass rising over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1468.33 points, up 13.64 points or 0.94% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping European route continued its upward trend, with the main contract closing up 3.99%, driven by good cargo collection and stable current cabin quotes [2] Group 2 - International copper and Shanghai copper futures opened higher, reaching a six-month high, with respective increases of 3.58% and 3.40% due to supply disruptions from Freeport's Grasberg mine [3] - The suspension of operations at Grasberg is expected to tighten global copper supply further, with forecasts indicating a continued decline in supply growth through 2026 [3] - Other commodities such as glass, rapeseed oil, and coke also saw significant price increases, with glass futures closing up 3.08% [3] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced slight adjustments, with Shanghai gold down 0.45% while silver saw a minor increase, influenced by profit-taking and a lack of new stimuli [4] - Long-term bullish factors for gold remain, including rising U.S. debt and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term fluctuations [4] - Natural rubber and No. 20 rubber contracts saw slight declines, with limited impact from weather disturbances, as the Southeast Asian production season is expected to increase output [5]

智通财经APP讯，旗滨集团(601636.SH)发布公告，公司拟1亿元至2亿元回购股份，回购股份价格不超 过9元/股，将在未来适宜时机用于公司员工持股计划或股权激励，如公司未能在股份回购实施完成之后 36个月内使用完毕已回购的股份，尚未使用的已回购股份将予以注销。 ...

Group 1 - The company is actively responding to market changes in the 6th generation product segment by optimizing and adjusting its substrate glass product structure [1] - The company is exploring new markets for its products [1] - The company currently does not produce 5th and 7.5th generation substrate glass products [1]

Group 1 - The company is actively responding to market changes in the 6th generation product segment by optimizing and adjusting its substrate glass product structure and exploring new markets [1] - The company currently does not produce 5th and 7.5th generation substrate glass products [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened lower but closed up by 359 points or 1.37%, ending at 26,518 points, recovering above the 10-day moving average [3] - The market saw a total turnover of 288.77 billion, marking three consecutive days below 300 billion, with a net inflow of 13.704 billion from northbound trading [3] - Among 88 blue-chip stocks, 49 rose while 36 fell, with notable gainers including Xinyi Solar up 4.9% and Galaxy Entertainment up 2.2% [4] Group 2: Company Developments - Chow Tai Fook reported a net profit of 2.162 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.73%, with total revenue of 24.285 billion, down 8.09% [12] - Alibaba Cloud announced plans to establish data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, with further expansions planned in Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Dubai [13] - Baidu's A-share issuance plan has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for early drug research and development projects [14] Group 3: Industry Trends - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued 13 policy measures to support service exports, including optimizing tax procedures and enhancing cross-border financial management [10] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released guidelines to promote digital consumption, encouraging the development of new business models like live-streaming e-commerce [9] - Gaode, a subsidiary of Alibaba, announced a waiver of annual fees for all restaurant merchants, resulting in a 6.31-fold increase in new merchant registrations in a single day [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Low-level oscillation [1] - **PX**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **PTA**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [4] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [4] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to a short - term oil price rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. The price may decline to around $60 in the medium - to - long term [1][6]. - **LPG**: The cost - end oil price rebounds briefly, but the supply - surplus pressure increases. The price center is expected to continue to move down [1]. - **L**: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. The fundamentals show strong supply and demand, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - **PP**: The cost support improves, and the price stops falling and rebounds. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is entering the peak season [1]. - **PVC**: It rebounds due to the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry. The price is at a low level with strong exports, but the fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. The inventory is still relatively high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic device slightly increases its load, and the overseas devices change little. The consumption season is underperforming, and it is bearish with caution [39]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand improves. The cost support stabilizes, and the downside space is limited [42]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakly oscillating [47]. - **Natural Gas**: The U.S. natural gas inventory accumulates more than expected, causing the price to weaken, but the demand for winter storage provides some support [4]. - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases, so the price is under pressure [4]. - **Glass**: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4]. - **Soda Ash**: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long term [4] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.49%, Brent rose 2.22%, and SC rose 1.47% [5] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - the oil export of the Iraq Kurdistan region to Turkey has not restarted; demand - OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand; inventory - U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased [7] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [475 - 490] for SC [8] LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [9] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end has short - term support, but the long - term trend is downward. The demand is weakening, and the supply and inventory are increasing [11] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] for PG [12] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15] - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds following the cost. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is supported by the peak season of agricultural films [17] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,250] for L [17] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20] - **Fundamentals**: The cost support improves, the supply pressure eases, and the demand enters the peak season [22] - **Strategy**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6,830 - 6,950] for PP [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,919 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [25] - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds due to the glass industry. The price is low with strong exports, but the supply is strong and the demand is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] for V [27] PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [29] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side devices change little, the demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the later period, and the supply - demand balance is expected to ease [30] - **Strategy**: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6,575 - 6,665] for PX511 [31] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [32] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" is underperforming, and the demand is weak [34] - **Strategy**: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic device slightly increases its load, the overseas devices change little, and the consumption season is underperforming [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side pressure is large, but the demand improves, and the cost support stabilizes [42] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2,345 - 2,375] for MA01 [44] Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [45] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on dips [48] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: As of the week ending September 12, the U.S. natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory accumulates more than expected, the price weakens, but the demand for winter storage provides support [4] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases [4] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4] - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose [4] - **Strategy**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Rubber Industry**: Supply is affected by rainy seasons and typhoons, and future supply expectations suppress raw material prices. Downstream tire factories' pre - holiday restocking is mostly completed, and inventory reduction has slowed. Demand is lackluster with sub - optimal sales performance. The 01 contract range is 15000 - 16500, and follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in major producing areas [1]. - **Log Industry**: Logs are in an oscillatory pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. - **Glass and Soda Ash Industry**: Soda ash has a fundamental oversupply problem, and the inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches. In the medium - term, demand will continue the previous rigid pattern. It is recommended to hold short positions. Glass prices were driven up by rumors, and the spot market is expected to improve in the short - term, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas is high, and the long - term outlook depends on capacity clearance [4]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: The supply - side regulation is ineffective, and the industry has over - capacity. Downstream component inventory is high, and prices are unstable. Before the National Day holiday, polysilicon prices will oscillate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industrial Silicon Industry**: From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the balance turns loose. The price is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises [6]. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, while India's and China's decreased. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and exports decreased by 5.46% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 3.07% [1]. Log Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 25, the 2511 log contract closed at 803 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [3]. - **Cost and Import**: The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was stable [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 19, the total national coniferous log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters. The daily log shipment volume decreased by 3100 cubic meters as of September 12. This week, the number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 4, and the arrival volume increased by 126,000 cubic meters [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, the prices in North China, Central China, and South China increased slightly, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 3.35% and 2.52% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in all regions remained unchanged, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 2.42% and 1.84% respectively [4]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and glass melting volume decreased slightly. Glass factory inventory and soda ash factory inventory decreased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.28%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 53.14% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price increased by 2.23%, and the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, and monthly production increased by 23.31%. Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.29%, and monthly production increased by 6.24% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis of some types decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between some contracts changed slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Monthly national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, and the export volume increased by 3.56%. The production of related industries such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the stock price of Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co., Ltd., which fell by 5.17% to 76.28 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 856 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.16%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 39.839 billion CNY [1] - Hubei Feilihua was established on January 22, 1999, and listed on September 10, 2014. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of high-performance quartz glass materials and products for various sectors, including optical communications, semiconductors, solar energy, and aerospace [1] - The revenue composition of Hubei Feilihua is as follows: quartz glass materials account for 70.80%, quartz glass products for 28.91%, and other products for 0.30% [1] Group 2 - According to data, one fund under Bank of China, the Zhongyin Jingfu Return Mixed A Fund (005274), holds a significant position in Feilihua, with 12,700 shares, representing 0.75% of the fund's net value, making it the fifth-largest holding [2] - The Zhongyin Jingfu Return Mixed A Fund was established on April 17, 2018, with a latest scale of 86.5139 million CNY. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 4.93%, ranking 6739 out of 8173 in its category, and a one-year return of 10.55%, ranking 6689 out of 8003 [2] - The fund manager, Tu Haiqiang, has been in the position for 9 years and 273 days, managing assets totaling 730 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 60.72% and the worst being -5.75% [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-25 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1080元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1237元/吨，基差为-157元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6090.80万重量箱，较前一周减少1.10%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空 ...

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 玻璃纯碱早报 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 华北重碱 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 华北氨碱法利润 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 华北联碱法利润 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 华北轻碱 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 39083 39096 39109 39122 39135 39148 39161 39174 39187 39200 39213 39226 39239 3925 ...