Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - In August, the futures price of urea maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic supply declined, and demand entered the off - season. The overall contradiction was not prominent, and demand was mainly supported by exports. The short - term fundamentals did not change significantly, and additional bullish factors were needed for the price to break out of the range. Currently, the market is characterized by low valuation and weak drivers, and the price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price of urea maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Domestic supply decreased with the monthly output of 5.93 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase of over 11%. The daily output dropped to around 182,000 tons, reducing supply pressure. Exports continued to advance, and port inventories increased significantly, becoming the main demand support. The compound fertilizer market was weak, with the start - up rate peaking and then declining. Domestic agricultural demand entered the off - season [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal - based production profits were at a low level, and cost support would gradually strengthen. The basis and the 1 - 5 spread showed slight signs of stabilization. Export profits were high, and domestic prices were relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related varieties was at a medium - low level, indicating that the valuation of urea was not high. In August, port inventories increased by over 50,000 tons, and enterprise inventories increased by over 200,000 tons, with the current inventory at 1.095 million tons, which was at a high level compared to the same period [12]. - **Market Logic**: The market was characterized by low valuation and weak drivers, lacking more positive factors. The price was expected to remain range - bound, with limited upside and downside space [12]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: For the 09 contract, the price at the end of the month was 1,679, a decrease of 35 from the beginning of the month; for the 01 contract, it was 1,746, an increase of 10; for the 05 contract, it was 1,791, an increase of 16. The basis in Shandong and Henan decreased, and the 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads also changed [13]. - **Charts**: There are charts showing the 01 basis seasonality, Shandong urea spot market price, urea 1 - 5 spread, and urea term structure [22][24]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Enterprise profits were at a low level compared to the same period. The fixed - bed, water - coal - slurry, and gas - based production profits are presented in relevant charts [30]. - **Inventory**: In August, enterprise inventories increased by over 200,000 tons to 1.095 million tons, and port inventories increased by over 50,000 tons. There are charts showing urea enterprise inventories, port inventories, and warehouse receipts [12][31]. 4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There are plans for new urea production capacity from multiple enterprises in 2024 - 2025, such as Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [38]. - **Urea Start - up**: The start - up rate declined, reducing supply pressure. There were many device overhauls in August and September, including both planned and unplanned overhauls due to various reasons such as faults, routine maintenance, and policies [40][44]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: The report presents charts on monthly consumption and downstream demand proportion [50]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer was weak and began to decline after peaking. The production profit and the price ratio between urea and compound fertilizer are shown in relevant charts [52][53]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The price ratios between urea and synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented in charts [56]. - **Melamine**: The start - up rate, profit, and export volume of melamine are shown in relevant charts [58][61]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data (such as new construction area, completion area, and sales area), and external market prices are presented in charts. Urea exports had high profits, and there are charts on export volume, export regions, and export profit [66][77]. 6. Option - Related - **Urea Options**: There are charts showing the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, volatility, and the relationship with the futures price of urea options [90][98]. 7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: There are charts showing the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and industry chain characteristics. The report also provides an overview of the seasonal fertilizer demand of domestic and international crops [101][106][109].

Group 1 - The company Yuntianhua (SH 600096) held a temporary board meeting on September 5, 2025, to discuss the adjustment of senior management's salary plan for 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, Yuntianhua's revenue composition was as follows: fertilizers accounted for 50.88%, trade for 32.25%, phosphate chemicals for 5.73%, others for 3.41%, and engineering materials for 2.81% [1] - As of the report date, Yuntianhua's market capitalization was 47.9 billion yuan [1]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Short - term UR01 - 05 positive spread can trade on fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 can conduct reverse spread at high levels [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - India's NFL urea import tender received a large amount of supplies at a lower price, and the follow - up award quantity is worthy of attention [2] - The domestic urea spot market has seen improved transactions after price cuts, but the sustainability is weak; agricultural and industrial demands co - exist, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is still loose [2] - Urea production is high, with a decline this week due to more maintenance; coal - based urea profit is acceptable with general cost support [2] - September is the export window period, with continuous exports and increasing port inventories; follow - up attention should be paid to port operations and export dynamics [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1714 yuan/ton (+0); Henan small - particle ex - factory price was 1710 yuan/ton (0); Shandong small - particle price was 1700 yuan/ton (-10); Jiangsu small - particle price was 1710 yuan/ton (-10); small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong basis was - 14 yuan/ton (-10); Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-10); Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-10) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.11% (+0.08%); this week, there were many maintenance enterprises, and the production decreased; with new capacity release, the medium - and long - term urea supply - demand is still loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-10); coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is general [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - India's NFL tender received a large amount of supplies, with the lowest price on the east coast at 462.45 US dollars/ton and on the west coast at 464.70 US dollars/ton, nearly 70 US dollars/ton lower than the previous price; urea export profit was 1186 yuan/ton (+4); September is the export window period, and exports are continuing [2][1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 4, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.08% (-6.14%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.98% (+0.48%); urea enterprise advance order days were 6.41 days (+0.35) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 109.50 million tons (+0.92), and the port sample inventory was 62.09 million tons (+2.09); the export collection rhythm has accelerated, and port inventories are continuously accumulating [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is at a moderate level, while agricultural demand is limited. Although the export profit is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is strong, and the urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently declined after a previous increase due to rumors of export liberalization. Current daily production and operating rates are still high, and inventory is at a high level overall. The domestic urea market remains in a significant oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 66, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.7%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price, non - over - expected export policy liberalization, and a significant domestic oversupply situation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1780 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1790 (0), and the FOB China price is 3031 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1714 (0), the basis is 66 (-10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1753 (-4), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1664 (6) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7928 (723), the UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), the UR manufacturer inventory is 85.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.3 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also generally shown an upward trend, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The import dependence has fluctuated between 8.4% and 19.3%. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Sifang experienced a decline of 2.02% on September 4, with a trading volume of 223 million yuan, indicating a potential concern regarding its stock performance [1] Financing Summary - On September 4, Hong Sifang had a financing buy-in amount of 24.99 million yuan and a financing repayment of 16.25 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 8.75 million yuan [1] - As of September 4, the total financing and securities lending balance for Hong Sifang was 188 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 9.61% of the circulating market value [1] - The company had no securities lending repayment or sales on September 4, with a remaining securities lending amount of 10,600 shares and a balance of 386,400 yuan [1] Company Profile - Hong Sifang, officially known as Zhongyan Anhui Hong Sifang Fertilizer Co., Ltd., is located in Hefei, Anhui Province, and was established on March 26, 2012, with its listing date set for November 26, 2024 [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, sales, and service of compound fertilizers and nitrogen fertilizers [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Hong Sifang reported an operating income of 1.814 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43.97 million yuan, down 47.10% year-on-year [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Sifang had 26,700 shareholders, a decrease of 23.56% from the previous period, with an average of 2,009 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 73.78% [1] - After its A-share listing, Hong Sifang has distributed a total of 30 million yuan in dividends [2] - The largest circulating shareholder is the Southern CSI 1000 ETF, holding 724,600 shares as a new shareholder, while other ETFs have also entered the top ten circulating shareholders [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the urea futures price may fluctuate. The commodity sentiment in the night session showed a slight recovery, and the results of the Indian tender's quantity and price are out. Attention should be paid to spot trading and the overall equity market sentiment during the day [2]. - In the medium term, the trend remains under pressure. The urea warehouse receipt quantity is at a high level, and the futures valuation maintains a high premium, with the static valuation of the urea futures price being relatively high. In the fourth - quarter supply - demand balance, although there is export volume support, due to weak domestic demand, the UR2601 contract is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, and the terminal value of the 01 contract is expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,713 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 152,066 lots, the open interest of the 01 contract was 234,351 lots (up 1,623 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 7,928 tons (up 723 tons), the trading volume was 520.847 million yuan (down 471.687 million yuan), the Shandong regional basis was - 14 (down 10), the basis of Fengxi - Disk was - 104 (unchanged), the basis of Dongguang - Disk was - 4 (unchanged), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 50 (up 6) [1]. - **Spot Market**: Among urea factory prices, Henan Xinlianxin was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Ruixing was 1,680 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,590 yuan/ton (down 20), Hebei Dongguang was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged). The trader price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (down 10), and in Shanxi it was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged). The supply - side important indicators showed that the operating rate was 79.64% (down 0.74%), and the daily output was 186,300 tons (down 1,740 tons) [1]. Industry News - On September 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 0.0092 million tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.85%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises varied, with the overall inventory level increasing slightly. Some enterprises in the southwest and northwest regions fulfilled export orders, resulting in a decrease in inventory, while some enterprises saw an increase in inventory due to a decline in downstream operations and reduced inflows [2].

Group 1: SF Express (顺丰同城) / Logistics - The company achieved revenue of 10.236 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.81%, and a net profit of 137 million yuan, up 120.43% year-on-year [3][4] - The ToB delivery and last-mile business saw significant growth, with a 50%+ increase in same-city delivery orders, driving revenue to 5.779 billion yuan, a 43.11% increase year-on-year [4] - The company’s gross margin was 6.65%, slightly down by 0.23 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 0.44 percentage points to 1.34% [5][6] Group 2: China Everbright Environment (光大环境) / Environmental Governance - The company reported a revenue of 14.304 billion HKD in H1 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.207 billion HKD, down 10% year-on-year [8][9] - Operating service revenue increased by 5% to 9.943 billion HKD, accounting for 70% of total revenue, while construction service revenue fell by 49% [9][10] - The company’s gross margin improved significantly to 44.26%, up 5.53 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin increased to 19.44%, up 0.84 percentage points [10] Group 3: Fenbi (粉笔) / Education - The company reported a revenue of 1.492 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 227 million yuan, down 18.39% year-on-year [11][12] - The AI question-answering system is expected to become a new growth engine, with significant potential for revenue increase [13][14] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.525 billion yuan, 2.618 billion yuan, and 2.793 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [14] Group 4: HuiLiang Technology (汇量科技) / Advertising Marketing - The company achieved total revenue of 938 million USD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and a net profit of 32.28 million USD, up 340% year-on-year [15][17] - The average daily advertising requests increased from over 200 billion in H1 2024 to over 300 billion in H1 2025, indicating strong client engagement [18] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.211 billion USD, 2.747 billion USD, and 3.301 billion USD for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [18] Group 5: Focus Media (分众传媒) / Advertising Marketing - The company reported total revenue of 6.112 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and a net profit of 2.665 billion yuan, up 6.87% year-on-year [20][21] - The gross margin improved to 68.3%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 43.4%, up 2.3 percentage points [21][22] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, with a cash dividend ratio of 25.5% [20] Group 6: Tungsten Industry / Industry Research - The report highlights a tightening supply of tungsten due to regulatory constraints and declining ore grades, with limited new projects expected [27][28] - The demand for tungsten is projected to grow, driven by applications in hard alloys and the semiconductor industry, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project expected to boost demand [28][29] - The strategic importance of tungsten is increasing due to export controls and tariffs, leading to a potential revaluation of tungsten resources [29] Group 7: Great Wall Motors (长城汽车) / Passenger Vehicles - The company reported total revenue of 92.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [31][32] - The company’s Q2 2025 revenue reached 52.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with a significant increase in net profit [32][33] - The company forecasts revenues of 225.3 billion yuan, 278.5 billion yuan, and 312.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [34] Group 8: Dongfang Tower (东方铁塔) / Agricultural Chemical Products - The company achieved revenue of 2.148 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.51%, and a net profit of 493 million yuan, up 79.18% year-on-year [35][36] - The company’s Q2 revenue was 1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.20%, with a significant increase in net profit [37][38] - The company forecasts revenues of 4.926 billion yuan, 5.145 billion yuan, and 5.372 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [39] Group 9: Yipule (易普力) / Chemical Products - The company reported revenue of 4.713 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a net profit of 409 million yuan, up 16.4% year-on-year [42][43] - The company’s Q2 revenue was 2.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, with a significant increase in net profit [43][44] - The company’s performance is driven by high-quality development and market investment [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream domestic demand is insufficient, and short - term export boost is limited. Urea is expected to run weakly, but there will be a bottom - support market for autumn fertilizers and off - season storage, so be cautious about short - selling [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened low and moved high today, facing pressure during the day. Affected by the decline in the futures market, upstream factory prices were lowered, with small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1650 - 1680 yuan/ton, and some factory prices were reduced by 10 yuan/ton [1][3] - India's NFL received bids for 5.6 million tons of urea from 29 bidders on September 2nd [1] - Recently, the daily urea production has fluctuated within 18 - 190,000 tons. Although summer maintenance is ongoing, the production remains at a high level, and the current reduction in production has not changed the loose supply pattern [1] - Affected by parades and major meetings, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has dropped significantly this period, and it is expected to resume production gradually this week. The finished product inventory in factories continues to decline, and the finished fertilizers are starting to be transferred to the end - users. The possibility of subsequent concentrated fertilizer procurement is low, and the incremental demand for urea may be limited. The operating load is expected to increase next week [1] - The urea inventory in factories continues to accumulate, increasing by 0.92 million tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.85% [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1712 yuan/ton, moved high after opening low, faced pressure during the day, and finally closed at 1714 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change of - 1.32%. The open interest was 234,351 lots (+1,623 lots) [2] - Among the top twenty main open - interest seats of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,597 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,667 lots. For example, Galaxy Futures had a net long position of - 1,171 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of - 234 lots; Yide Futures had a net short position of +1,064 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,213 lots [2] - On September 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,928, a month - on - month increase of 723 compared with the previous trading day. For example, Jiashili Pingyuan increased by 450, Jiashili Jingzhou increased by 115, and Anyang Wanzhuang (Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production) decreased by 25, while Anyang Wanzhuang increased by 150 [2] Spot - Affected by the decline in the futures market, upstream factory prices were lowered, with small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1650 - 1680 yuan/ton, and some factory prices were reduced by 10 yuan/ton [1][3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable, while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [6] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on September 4, 2025, the national daily urea production was 183,400 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with yesterday, and the operating rate was 77.49% [8] Downstream Data - From August 29th to September 4th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.98%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points compared with last week [11]

Core Viewpoint - Liu Guo Chemical's financial performance in the first half of 2025 reveals significant challenges, with a net loss of 149 million yuan, a decline of 608.08% compared to the same period last year, highlighting structural issues in the company's operations [1][3] Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 3.155 billion yuan, an increase of 3.10% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 149 million yuan, compared to a profit of 29.37 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The non-recurring net profit also showed a loss of 151 million yuan, down from a profit of 10.08 million yuan in the previous year [1] Cost and Pricing Pressures - Liu Guo Chemical's core business relies heavily on fertilizer products, with phosphate and compound fertilizers contributing nearly 80% of revenue [1] - Rising raw material prices, particularly for sulfur and potassium fertilizers, have significantly deteriorated the cost structure of phosphate products, leading to compressed profit margins [1][2] - The company faces a "cost up, price down" scenario, resulting in a vicious cycle of "production equals loss" in its basic fertilizer business [2] Strategic Challenges - The transition projects, such as battery-grade refined phosphoric acid, are still in the investment phase and have not yet provided substantial financial relief [2] - There is a mismatch between the profit collapse of traditional businesses and the delayed cash generation capabilities of new projects, exposing deeper contradictions in resource allocation [2] Recommendations for Improvement - The company needs to reshape its supply chain by extending upstream control over sulfur resources or exploring alternative raw material technologies to break the cycle of uncontrollable costs [2] - A reassessment of heavy asset projects, such as those in Hubei Huayang, is necessary to balance asset-light and heavy investments, potentially through cooperative construction and phased production [2] - Establishing a cash flow positive path by prioritizing the clearance of unsold inventory and creating a distribution assessment mechanism focused on collection efficiency is crucial [2]

Core Insights - The company Sierte announced on September 4 that the total resource reserves of the Mingniwan phosphate mine are 36.098 million tons as of March 31, 2025 [2] - The mining company has utilized 17.046 million tons of phosphate resources, leaving a remaining resource reserve of 19.052 million tons, all classified as Grade I (PO≥30%) [2] Summary by Categories - **Resource Reserves** - Total resource reserves of the Mingniwan phosphate mine are 36.098 million tons [2] - Remaining resource reserves amount to 19.052 million tons [2] - **Utilization** - The company has utilized 17.046 million tons of phosphate resources [2] - **Quality Classification** - All reserves are classified as Grade I with a phosphorus content of at least 30% [2]