中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心今天(31日)发布7月份中国采购经理指数。受季节 性因素影响，制造业采购经理指数有所波动，制造业景气水平较上月有所回落。 制造业景气水平较上月有所回落 7月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.3%，较上月下降0.4个百分点。 国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长 霍丽慧：7月份受制造业进入传统生产淡季，以及部分地区 高温暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，采购经理指数是在连续两个月回升之后有所回落，制造业景气水平有所 下降。 从主要分项指数看，制造业新订单指数回落到收缩区间，运行偏弱。制造业企业生产保持扩张，延续稳 中有增的态势。7月份生产指数为50.5%，连续3个月运行在扩张区间。铁路船舶航空航天设备、计算机 通信电子设备等行业的生产指数和新订单指数持续位于扩张区间，相关行业产需两端较为活跃。 国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长 霍丽慧：从市场预期来看，服务业业务活动预期指数是有 所回升，继续位于55%以上的较高景气区间，表明多数服务业企业对近期市场发展前景还是比较乐观 的。 另外，7月份，装备制造业采购经理指数为50.3%，较上月下降1.1个百分点，仍保持在扩张区间。高 ...

Core Insights - The project "500MW level impulse turbine runner high toughness manufacturing technology and equipment" has achieved a significant milestone with the successful acceptance of the core topic led by China First Heavy Industries [1] - The developed full-size forged-welded structure runner components exhibit excellent and stable high-performance reserves, as well as ultra-high uniformity and consistency in organization, representing the current international top manufacturing level in this field [1] - The 500MW level forged-welded impulse turbine runner, known as the "heart" of the impulse turbine generator set, has extreme requirements for high strength and toughness due to its long service life and high reliability [1] Industry Impact - This achievement signifies that China has mastered the extreme manufacturing capability of full-size 500MW level impulse turbine runner forgings, providing solid core equipment support for major hydropower projects and energy security in the country [2] - The project team has innovatively constructed an integrated toughness manufacturing system that spans material composition optimization, precise forging shape control, efficient collaboration of processing resources, and fine-tuning of heat treatment processes [1] - The successful resolution of challenges in manufacturing ultra-large impulse turbine runners establishes the core capability for high-quality and stable production of full-size forgings, paving the way for future engineering applications [1]

国家统计局7月31日发布数据显示，7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数 分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI有所回落 "7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。"国家统计局服务业调查 中心高级统计师赵庆河表示。 图片来源：国家统计局 非制造业商务活动指数保持扩张 数据显示，7月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍高于临界点。 图片来源：国家统计局 赵庆河表示，服务业商务活动指数总体稳定。7月份，服务业商务活动指数为50%，比上月略降0.1个百分点。从行业看，在暑期假日效应带动下，与居民 出行和消费相关的铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间，业务总量较快增长。从市场预期看，7 月份，业务活动预期指数为56.6%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明多数服务业企业对市场预期较为乐观。 建筑业商务活动 ...

Core Viewpoint - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating a continued expansion of the overall economic output in China despite a slight decline from the previous month [1][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [2]. - The production index remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, while the new orders index decreased to 49.4%, indicating a slowdown in market demand [2]. - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises saw a decline to 46.4% [3]. - New momentum in the manufacturing sector was observed, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point [3]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [4]. - The service industry business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with significant growth in sectors related to travel and consumption, such as railway and air transport [4]. - The construction industry business activity index fell to 50.6%, impacted by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in the business activity expectation index to 51.6% [4]. Group 3: Composite PMI Output Index - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Trends - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, marking the first rise above the critical point since March [2] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant increases in their purchasing and factory price indices, indicating improved market prices [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with strong performance in transportation and tourism-related industries, while real estate and residential services lagged [4] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6% due to adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in market expectations [4] Group 4: Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall economic expansion despite a slowdown [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were reported at 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion [6]

Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [4] - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [3][4] - New momentum in the manufacturing sector is evident, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, both above the critical point [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with significant growth in transportation and tourism-related industries, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in market expectations [6] Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index decreased to 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, both indicating continued expansion [7]

编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平稳增长。面对外部 环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动 能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展望下半年政策走向。 智观年中经济形势 核心观点： 下一步，要进一步做好"两重"建设和"两新"工作，用好新型政策性金融工具，更好发挥政府投资带动作用，加快推进传统产业改造升级，加 快培育和壮大新质生产力，聚焦提高投资效益精准发力，多方面拓展有效投资空间，充分激发民间投资活力，持续发挥投资对优化供给结构的关键作用。 ■杨萍 杜月 今年以来，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，统筹用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等政策工具，加快推 进"两重"建设和"两新"工作，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节积极扩大有效投资，推动固定资产投资平稳增长。从全年看，外部环境仍然复杂严峻、具有不确定 性。下一步，要深入贯彻落实4月25日中共中央政治局会议精神， ...

国家统计局数据显示，7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影 响，PMI降至49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。从重点行业看，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分 别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点，高端装备制造业保持扩张；消费品行业PMI为49.5%，比上月 下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial and information technology sectors in China are experiencing steady growth and transformation, with a focus on high-quality development, innovation, and green transformation, supported by various government policies and initiatives [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industrial Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, the industrial economy showed resilience, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment growing by 7.5% [2][3]. - The contribution of key industries such as electrical machinery, automobiles, electronics, and chemicals to industrial growth has increased, with all 31 provinces reporting year-on-year growth in industrial added value [2][3]. - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.5%, contributing 23.3% to the overall industrial growth, while digital product manufacturing increased by 9.9%, outperforming the overall industrial average [7][8]. Group 2: Policy Support and Future Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement new growth stabilization plans for key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, focusing on structural adjustments and eliminating outdated production capacity [4][5]. - The MIIT aims to enhance development quality and foster new growth drivers through technological innovation and the integration of industry and technology [4][5]. - The government is promoting green transformation in traditional industries, emphasizing the need for deep green transitions in sectors like steel and chemicals [6][8]. Group 3: High-End Equipment Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a 10.2% increase in added value, significantly contributing to overall industrial growth [9][10]. - Key products such as railway vehicles, packaging equipment, and charging piles experienced rapid growth, with fixed asset investment in manufacturing achieving double-digit growth [10][11]. - The automotive industry maintained strong growth, with production and sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 41.4% and 40.3% year-on-year, respectively [10][11].

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's manufacturing industry is steadily developing, with accelerated high-end and intelligent transformation, leading to rapid growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturing Growth - The sales revenue of manufacturing enterprises accounts for approximately 29% of total enterprise revenue, providing a solid foundation for economic growth [2] - The average annual growth rates for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sales revenue reached 9.6% and 10.4% respectively, with further growth in the first half of the year to 8.9% and 11.9% [2] - The industrial robot and service robot manufacturing sectors experienced remarkable annual growth rates of 23.2% and 17.2% [2] Group 2: Private Sector Dynamics - The private economy is vibrant, with its sales revenue accounting for 71.7% in the first half of the year, particularly in the industrial robot and new energy vehicle sectors, which achieved annual growth rates of 24.1% and 50.1% [2] Group 3: Regional Economic Coordination - Enhanced regional economic coordination has led to increased proportions of county economies and inter-provincial trade, paving the way for the scientific instrument market to expand into broader regions [3] Group 4: Innovation and High-Tech Manufacturing - From 2021 to 2024, the proportion of high-tech manufacturing in GDP is expected to rise from 15.3% to 16.9%, with R&D investment intensity reaching 2.68% [4] - The total amount of R&D expense deductions in 2024 is projected to reach 3.32 trillion yuan, benefiting over 615,000 enterprises, a 25.5% increase from 2021 [4] - Industries such as semiconductors, biomedicine, and "new three types" (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic equipment, lithium batteries) are expected to see annual growth rates of 37.6%, significantly increasing the demand for high-end instruments [4] Group 5: Intelligent Transformation - The robotics industry is growing at an annual rate exceeding 20%, indicating that intelligence is permeating production lines [5] - The annual growth rate of the core industries of the digital economy has reached 10.8%, leading to a new demand for "cloud-based instruments" [5] Group 6: Green Revolution and Market Demand - The annual growth rate of sales revenue from clean energy generation has reached 13.1%, with market share exceeding 33.8%, directly boosting the demand for photovoltaic material analysis instruments and wind power condition monitoring systems [6] Group 7: Market Expansion and Domestic Substitution - The sales revenue of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta innovation hubs accounts for over 50%, serving as a springboard for Chinese manufacturing to reach global markets [7] - The share of county economies has risen to 24.3%, opening new market spaces for domestic instruments, especially in grassroots healthcare and food safety testing, where demand for cost-effective instruments continues to grow [7] - The scientific instrument industry is not only deepening its domestic market but also accelerating overseas expansion through the "Belt and Road" initiative, showcasing its potential as a core engine of "new productive forces" [7]