浙商国际表示，看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的新能源、创新药、AI科技等；业绩和股价走势 稳健且受益于政策利好的低估值国央企红利板块；基本面相对独立且受益于降息周期的香港本地银行、 电信及公用事业红利股。另外，我们认为港股2026春季表现将由"AI应用+PPI改善+扩大内需"三轮驱 动，建议关注相关优质标的。 值得关注的标的： 1月28日盘中，港股短线走高，恒生指数涨超1%创4年多新高，恒生科技指数涨超0.7%。消息面上，阿 里通义开源Qwen3-TTS，百度、腾讯先后宣布旗下AI应用春节发放数亿元现金。花旗预计阿里巴巴的 通义千问也将加入红包促销行列。从历史上看，春节活动能有效帮助互联网公司为其消费级应用吸引大 量关注。花旗预计2026年活动后，中国AI助手应用的采用将快速推进。 网罗港股消费核心资产：港股消费ETF（513230）； 全球医药全产业链代表：恒生医药ETF（159892）； 汇集中国AI科技概念公司：恒生互联网ETF（513330）。 港股核心宽基：恒生ETF（159920）； AI+平台经济：恒生科技指数ETF（513180）； ...

1月27日，港股市场迎来强势上涨。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收27126.95点，上涨361.43点，涨幅1.35%。 | 分号 5日 = 5分 15分 30分 00分 国家 周K 月K 年K = | | BBE · All · II / : 恒生指数 (HSt) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 督生損散 均該 ~ | | | 0000 | 27126.95 1 | | + | | | -27385.84 | | | 行情报险 | | | | | | | 27000 0 | 成效量 | 160亿 原来 271年00 今月 | 24003.15 | | | | | | 成交部 2544亿 最低 | 25120.71 群收 | 26765.52 | | | | | 26500 0 | 其他用意 | | | | | | | | | | 准备 | | | | | 26000 0 | 與克維數 | 8724 | +0.201 | | | | | | 建设斯 | 49412.40 | +0.04% | | | | | 25500 0 | 肿新达克 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 82.48 points, or 0.32%, closing at 26,231.79 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 8.8 points, or 0.15%, to 5,687.14 points, while the China Enterprises Index rose by 9.19 points, or 0.1%, to 9,048.53 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed varied movements, with Alibaba up 2.73%, Tencent down 0.81%, and JD.com up 2.6% [1] Company News - Fast Retailing (迅销) reported a revenue of 1,027.745 billion yen for the first quarter ending November 30, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 147.445 billion yen, up 11.7% year-on-year [2] - Baidu Cloud (百融云) repurchased 4.15 million shares for a total of 51.783 million HKD at a price range of 12.41-12.51 HKD [3] - Tencent Holdings (腾讯控股) repurchased 1.636 billion HKD worth of shares, buying back 1.034 million shares at a price range of 610.5-618.5 HKD [4] - Xiaomi Group (小米集团) repurchased 5 million shares for 191 million HKD at a price range of 38.04-38.16 HKD [5] - Vanke Enterprises (万科企业) announced the retirement of Yu Liang, who stepped down from his roles as director and executive vice president [7] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities forecasts that the Hong Kong stock market may see a second round of valuation recovery and performance revival in 2026, driven by internal and external economic factors [13] -招商证券 suggests that the market will enter a phase of structural differentiation, focusing on quality-driven growth, and recommends a dual strategy of focusing on both rebound opportunities and growth stocks [13] - Zheshang International maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong market, highlighting sectors benefiting from policy support such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology [14]

Core Insights - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned negative year-on-year, primarily due to the divergence in volume and price, uneven transmission of upstream price increases, and rising financial costs leading to a contraction in profit margins [1] - The industry is experiencing increased differentiation, with most sectors seeing a decline in profit growth; upstream industries performed slightly better than midstream and downstream, while only the beverage and tea sector benefited from a low base effect, resulting in marginal profit improvement [1] - Passive inventory replenishment highlights weak demand; future policy support and demand recovery are needed to stimulate inventory replenishment, alongside deepening anti-involution which may aid in improving PPI and restoring profit margins, although profit recovery may be gradual [1] - Caution is advised regarding demand falling short of expectations and issues related to cost transmission [1] Industry Analysis - The overall profit growth rate has declined across most industries, indicating a challenging environment for industrial enterprises [1] - Upstream industries are showing slightly better performance compared to midstream and downstream sectors, suggesting a potential shift in focus for investors [1] - The beverage and tea industry stands out as a rare exception, benefiting from a low profit margin base, which has allowed for some recovery in profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is expected to transition from "asset revaluation" to "profit recovery" around 2026, likely resulting in a "flat slow bull" market rather than a "sharp short bull" [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience a "flat slow bull" phase post-2025, with a focus on profit recovery as the new stable center for the capital market [2] - The securities ratio is a key indicator for assessing the market's bull or valuation space, with a ratio of 1.1 being a significant threshold [2] - Profit recovery is expected to follow a "factory-shaped" recovery pattern, with earnings bottoming out by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as technology growth, PPI improvement, anti-involution trends, global competitiveness, and domestic consumption recovery [3][5] - The "technology first" theme is highlighted as a dominant trend in the current bull market, with a focus on relative profitability advantages and global semiconductor cycles [3] - The transition from valuation-driven investments to factor-based investments is emphasized, with important factors including marginal changes in profit growth, revenue growth, and return on equity [3] Group 3: Economic Policy and Consumer Trends - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with moderate monetary easing and potential increases in the broad deficit scale [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as crucial for stimulating domestic demand and consumption, particularly in services and rural areas [5][6] - Supply-side adjustments are necessary, including enhancing service supply and addressing excess capacity through anti-involution measures [7]

Core Insights - In August, China's equipment manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in added value, driven by strong production and sales of major products, contributing to stable industrial economic performance [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Growth - All eight sectors within the equipment manufacturing industry maintained growth in August, with the railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors achieving double-digit growth at a rate of 12.0%. The automotive and electrical machinery sectors grew by 8.4% and 9.8%, respectively [3][5]. Group 2: Product Performance - High-end equipment is rapidly developing, with production of civil steel ships, generator sets, and urban rail vehicles increasing by 39.8%, 30.7%, and 15.3%, respectively. In the first eight months of the year, the cumulative production of industrial robots reached 512,000 units, nearing last year's total, while sales of electric loaders exceeded 18,000 units, an increase of over 10,000 units compared to the same period last year [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Recent efforts by relevant departments to promote industry self-discipline have led to an improved market competition order, with noticeable effects. In August, the year-on-year decline in factory prices for industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics narrowed, resulting in a stable month-on-month Producer Price Index (PPI) and a significant reduction in year-on-year decline [7].

Key Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for September, including 京沪高铁 (601816.SH), 桐昆股份 (601233.SH), 雅克科技 (002409.SZ), 宁德时代 (300750.SZ), 恒瑞医药 (600276.SH), 三友医疗 (688085.SH), 北京人力 (600861.SH), 菲利华 (300395.SZ), 兆易创新 (603986.SH), and 鹏鼎控股 (002938.SZ) [1] Fixed Income - The report maintains a view on gradual improvement in PPI and a slow recovery in long-term bond yields, indicating signs of stabilization in upstream prices and a potential seasonal improvement in food prices due to upcoming holidays [2][5] Electronics - The report discusses Apple's 2025 Fall Product Launch, noting the introduction of eight new products, including the iPhone 17 series, which features significant design innovations and improved cost-performance ratios, likely to drive sales growth [2][7][8] Oil and Petrochemicals - 中国海油 reported a revenue of 207.61 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of 69.53 billion yuan, down 12.79%. The company continues to show resilience and improved risk management capabilities despite the revenue decline [3][12] - 中国石油's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1,450.10 billion yuan, down 6.74% year-on-year, with a net profit of 83.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.42%. The company is focusing on increasing natural gas production and enhancing its refining and chemical transformation [3][17] Market Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3875.31, up 1.65%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12979.89, up 3.36%. The electronics and communication sectors showed strong performance, with increases of 5.96% and 7.39% respectively [4] Company Financials - 万润股份 reported a total revenue of 1.87 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.42% year-on-year, but with a net profit increase of 1.35%. The company is seeing improvements in its pharmaceutical business, with significant growth in its medical subsidiary [23][24]