[Table_Title] 策略研究 证券研究报告 2026 年 3 月 4 日 近期宏观经济数据跟踪 ——元瞻经纬总量月报（2026 年 2 月） 报告要点： 本期总量跟踪 工业生产及景气度篇：PPI 降幅持续收窄，价格端边际修复趋势明确。2026 年 1 月 PPI 当月同比降幅收窄至-1.4%，连续 6 个月改善，环比连续 4 个月 正增，显示工业品价格底部修复动能增强。从结构看，国际有色金属价格上行 显著抬升上游采选及冶炼价格；同时，全国统一大市场建设与供给侧结构优化 推动水泥、锂电、光伏设备等行业价格持续回升；叠加 AI 投资扩张带动半导 体材料、电子设备等中游价格改善，工业价格体系呈现由上游向中游扩散的特 征。 制造业景气短期回落，但价格信号释放积极变化。1 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3%，主要受季节性淡季及有效需求不足影响，生产、新订单指数同步下行。 但值得关注的是，PMI 价格指数明显回升，主要原材料购进价格指数与出厂 价格指数分别升至 56.1%和 50.6%，出厂价格指数近 20 个月首次重返临界点 以上。 内需篇：尽管内需有所回落，但 CPI 已在温和回升，有望改善内需不振的现 状 ...

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in December 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year CPI of 0.0% for 2025[1] - The significant drop in CPI growth is primarily due to the high base effect from the 2025 Spring Festival, which fell in January[2] - Increased vegetable supply led to a decline in food prices, contributing to the overall CPI trend[3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, was 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January 2026, an improvement from a 1.9% decline in December 2025, marking the smallest year-on-year decline since August 2024[5] - The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase[6] - Key drivers for the PPI increase include improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and rising international prices for non-ferrous metals[7] - The PPI for production materials rose by 0.5% month-on-month, while the PPI for living materials increased by 0.1%[8] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rise significantly in February 2026, potentially reaching around 1.0% due to the reversal of the Spring Festival base effect[9] - The overall CPI for January and February combined is projected to be around 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the price recovery trend from the second half of 2025[10]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China showed a positive trend in January, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4% [1] Group 1: PPI Trends - The PPI reflects a gradual improvement in industrial production demand and market vitality, indicating a potential positive cycle of "production recovery - demand increase - stable prices" [1] - Key industries such as cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.1%, continuing their upward trend for four months [1] - The price of photovoltaic equipment and components shifted from a 0.2% decrease to a 1.9% increase, while basic chemical raw materials saw a price increase of 0.7% [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The digital economy sector is experiencing strong growth, with prices in computer communication and other electronic device manufacturing rising by 0.5% due to increased demand for digital technologies [2] - Seasonal demand ahead of the Spring Festival contributed to price increases in the arts and crafts sector (4.1%) and agricultural products processing (0.3%) [2] - The price of winter clothing and down products also increased due to heightened demand for cold weather apparel [2] Group 3: International Influences - International prices of non-ferrous metals have remained strong, significantly impacting domestic prices in the non-ferrous metal industry, with PPI for this sector rising by 5.7% month-on-month [3] - Specific increases in metal refining prices were noted, with silver refining up by 38.2% and copper refining by 8.4% [3] - The rise in oil prices is expected to have a more pronounced effect on domestic PPI in February, with a notable reduction in the decline of petroleum product manufacturing prices [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The PPI is expected to continue rising in February, but at a slower rate of around 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline projected to narrow to approximately 1.0% [3] - Marginal upward momentum for basic raw materials and industrial prices may weaken, as indicated by the slower growth in January compared to December [3] - Domestic demand is anticipated to become a more significant factor influencing PPI trends moving forward, with expectations of narrowing declines in the coming months [4]

中金研究 1 月 CPI 同比从 0.8% 回落至 0.2% ，主要受春节错位影响，食品和服务拖累较大。金价上涨和换新需求释放难抵服务拖累，核心 CPI 同比回落至 0.8% 。 PPI 环比涨幅走扩至 0.4% 、同比跌幅收窄至 -1.4% ，主要受国际有色涨价、化工光伏反内卷、 AI 需求推动，但中下游顺价压力仍大。基期轮换对通胀读数影 响不大，但分类和调查的调整关注新消费、新模式和新方法，权数结构变化反映消费结构从商品向服务、从生存型向发展享受型的变迁 [1] 。向前看， 2 月 CPI 同比有望回弹，但后续物价改善幅度还看内需修复速度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 春节错月拖累同比。 1月CPI同比由上月0.8%回落至0.2%，主要受春节错位影响。春节所在月份往往CPI环比较高，今年春节在2月，去年春节在1月，导致 1月食品和服务等价格在高基数、低新增下，同比由前月的1.1%和0.6%回落至-0.7%和0.1%[2]，分别拖累CPI同比0.3和0.2ppt。 1月CPI环比0.2%，弱于十年同期可比均值的0.6%[3]，但考虑到疫情后服务样本更具代表性的调整，这个环比与疫后春节相似的2024年1月相当（0 ...

Group 1 - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, primarily influenced by the Spring Festival's timing, leading to a high comparison base from the previous year [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, while it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][3] - Energy prices fell by 5.0% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the CPI decline, with gasoline prices down 11.4% [1] Group 2 - Core CPI showed a mild increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, the highest in six months, indicating a continuous recovery in consumer demand [1] - Prices for air tickets and travel agency services rose by 5.7% and 2.0% respectively, while prices for household services, hairdressing, and entertainment tickets increased between 0.4% and 2.8% [2] - Excluding energy, industrial consumer goods prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with significant increases in gold jewelry prices (77.4%) and household goods [2] Group 3 - The PPI's month-on-month increase of 0.4% reflects positive changes driven by the ongoing construction of a unified national market and increased demand in certain industries [3] - Prices in the raw materials and processing industries rose by 0.7% and 0.5% month-on-month, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively [3] - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to continue influencing the prices of basic raw materials and industrial products in the future [3]

Group 1 - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, although the decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [1][3] - The increase in consumer demand is attributed to the ongoing construction of a unified national market and rising demand in certain industries, leading to price increases in sectors such as cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production [3] Group 2 - The January CPI was influenced by a "Spring Festival misalignment," which affected the year-on-year comparison, as January 2025 was a month with significant price increases due to the holiday [2] - Food prices decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, contributing to a 0.11 percentage point decline in the CPI, while service prices increased by 0.1%, contributing a 0.05 percentage point increase [1][2] - The energy prices saw a significant drop of 5.0% in January, with gasoline prices falling by 11.4% year-on-year, which had a larger downward impact on the CPI compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - The core CPI continues to show a moderate upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, the highest in the past six months [2] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is narrowing due to improvements in supply-demand structures in key industries, with non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting showing reduced price declines [3] - The new CPI and PPI data, based on a 2025 benchmark, reflect changes in consumer behavior and include new categories such as housing security equipment and internet medical services [4][5]

（来源：中华工商时报） 转自：中华工商时报 在全国统一大市场建设持续推进、部分行业需求增加等因素带动下，1月份，PPI继续呈现积极变化。 "1月份，PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。全国统一大市场建设持续 推进带动部分行业价格上涨，水泥制造、锂离子电池制造价格环比均连续4个月上涨。"董莉娟说。 董莉娟分析，部分行业需求增加，进一步带动相关行业价格上涨。例如，人工智能等数字化技术加快发 展、算力需求增长带动计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格环比上涨0.5%；春节前礼品和食品等备 货需求增加带动工艺美术及礼仪用品制造、农副食品加工业价格分别上涨4.1%和0.3%。 国家统计局2月11日发布数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同 比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百 分点；环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。 "1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，CPI保持上涨，但同比涨幅有所回落。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师 董莉娟分析，CPI涨幅回落，一是受春节错月影响，上年1月份 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer demand [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months [3] - Food prices decreased by 0.7%, contributing to a decline in the CPI year-on-year by approximately 0.11 percentage points, while service prices increased by 0.1% [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [4] - Key industries showed price increases due to improved supply-demand structures and the effects of capacity governance [4][5] - Domestic prices in the non-ferrous metal and petroleum sectors exhibited divergence due to international price fluctuations, with non-ferrous metal mining prices increasing significantly [6]

Group 1 - In January, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% [1][3] - The CPI increase was influenced by the Spring Festival timing and a significant drop in energy prices due to international oil price fluctuations [1][3] - The new base year for CPI and producer price index (PPI) is set to 2025, with the impact of this base year change on CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year indices averaging approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively [1][8] Group 2 - Food prices decreased by 0.7%, contributing to a 0.11 percentage point decline in the year-on-year CPI, while non-food prices increased by 0.4% [4][5] - Core CPI showed a moderate increase, with a 0.3% month-on-month rise, marking the highest level in six months, driven by rising prices in travel and household services [5] - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking four consecutive months of month-on-month increases [6][7] Group 3 - The new base year CPI classification includes adjustments to better reflect changes in consumer spending, with new categories added such as home security devices and internet medical services [8][9] - The overall weight changes in the CPI categories are minimal compared to the 2020 base year, with an increase in service weights and a decrease in consumer goods weights [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current price increase is not a comprehensive upward movement, and it is difficult to have a trend impact on interest rates. The structural recovery of prices due to supply - side issues makes the foundation for overall economic recovery and comprehensive price increases unstable. The central bank may keep the monetary policy stable or make only minor adjustments, and the bond market pressure is limited [5][29] 3. Summary by Related Content CPI and PPI Data in January - CPI growth slowed down in January, with the year - on - year increase narrowing by 0.6 percentage points to 0.2% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. PPI decline narrowed, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4%, and the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate rebounded, with a 0.4% increase [1][8] Factors Affecting CPI - The Spring Festival factor pulled down the CPI in January. After excluding the Spring Festival factor, the year - on - year CPI growth rate in January was about 0.8%, basically the same as the previous month. The core CPI year - on - year increase was 0.8%, with a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, also largely affected by the Spring Festival [1][8] - The price of gold still had a significant impact on CPI. The other supplies and services industry had a year - on - year growth of 13.2% in January. After excluding this item, the year - on - year CPI and core CPI in January were - 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, and the overall price level remained low [2][10] - The Spring Festival factor had the greatest impact on food prices, which was the main reason for the CPI decline. In January, food prices decreased by 0.7% from 1.1% in the previous month. The tourism service price was weak due to the Spring Festival misalignment effect [15][17] Factors Affecting PPI - The recovery of industrial product prices accelerated, mainly due to the increase in the prices of imported non - ferrous metals and electronic products. In January, the prices of non - ferrous metal mining, smelting and processing industries increased by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively month - on - month. The price of the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 0.5% month - on - month [2][19] - In January, the PPI of living materials decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month [19] Relationship between Price Increase and Interest Rate - Generally, price increases are accompanied by rising interest rates through supply and demand channels. However, the current single and imported price increase has not improved corporate profitability and is unlikely to increase financing demand. The central bank may not significantly respond to this type of price increase [3][23]