航运日报 | 2026-01-13 2月合约交割结算价格逐步清晰，关注马士基1月最后一周报 价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第四周价格1685/2710；HPL 1月上半月报价1635/2635，1月下半月船 期报价1635/2635，2月上半月船期报价1735/2835. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC1月上半月价格1700/2840，1月下半月船期报价1700/2840；ONE 1月下半月船期报价 1680/2635,2月上半月船期报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价2309/3693，2月份船期价格2409/3893；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2780-2830美元/FEU。 地缘端：马士基：将继续采取循序渐进的方式，逐步恢复通过苏伊士运河和红海的东西向航道航运。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年12月31日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶268艘，合 ...

Core Viewpoint - Capital Clean Energy Carriers (CCEC), led by Greek shipping magnate Evangelos Marinakis, has received the world's first 22,000 cubic meter low-pressure liquefied carbon dioxide (LCO2) carrier, named "Active," built by HD Modern Shipyard [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - "Active" is the first of four LCO2 carriers ordered by CCEC from HD Modern Shipyard, designed for LCO2 transportation while remaining competitive in the traditional small semi-refrigerated gas carrier market [3]. - The vessel will commence operations immediately under a six-month time charter contract to transport liquefied petroleum gas for an energy trading company, with an option to extend the charter for an additional six months [3]. - CCEC has ordered a total of four LCO2 carriers, with two ordered in July 2023 and two in February 2024, at a total cost of approximately $300 million [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The "Active" vessel is 159.9 meters long, 27.4 meters wide, and 17.8 meters high, capable of transporting multiple cargo types, including LCO2, liquefied petroleum gas, ammonia, and specific petrochemical products, showcasing exceptional deployment flexibility in market cycles [3]. - CCEC emphasizes that the four new vessels will stand out due to their multifunctionality and optionality, designed to support the emerging carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) value chain [3]. - According to CCEC's analysis, global carbon capture capacity is expected to reach approximately 430 million tons per year by 2030, with storage capacity increasing to about 670 million tons per year, up from the current capacity of 50 million tons per year [4]. - As the scale of capture expands and storage points become increasingly interconnected with industrial hubs, logistics solutions, including maritime transport, will play a more critical role [4]. - Driven by supply scarcity, multi-cargo flexibility, and growing demand for LCO2 transportation, CCEC holds a significant first-mover advantage in this structurally transformative segment [4].

有投资者在互动平台向海峡股份提问："请问贵公司有哪些国际业务或计划哪些国际业务，谢谢！" 针对上述提问，海峡股份回应称："公司今年收购的中远海运客运公司运营'大连—仁川'国际航线，开 展国际货物运输业务。如有开通其他国际航线，公司将第一时间通过公告形式对外披露。" 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 ...

1. Overnight Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures market closed with widespread gains, precious metals, shipping futures, new energy materials, and base metals rose significantly, Shanghai silver rose 14.42%, the container shipping index (European line) rose 11.3%, and Shanghai tin hit the daily limit [4][43] - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, COMEX gold futures rose 2.40% to $4608.80 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 7.33% to $85.16 per ounce [5][45] - The main contract of US crude oil closed up 1.22% at $59.84 per barrel; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.41% to $64.23 per barrel [6][45] - London base metals all rose, LME tin rose 5.47% to $48,200.0 per ton, LME nickel rose 2.12% to $18,075.0 per ton, etc [6][45] 2. Important News 2.1 Macroeconomic News - China and the EU will provide general guidance on price commitments to Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU [9] - As of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1956.39 points, up 8.9% from the previous period [10] - Trump denied participating in the Justice Department's subpoena of the Federal Reserve [10] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange called on market participants to strengthen risk prevention [10] 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - As of the week ending January 12, domestic asphalt social inventory increased by 2.4% week - on - week and 26.7% year - on - year [12] - As of January 12, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory decreased by 0.51% from the previous Thursday [14] - From January 2 - 8, the operating rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises remained stable [15] - As of January 12, the MEG inventory in the East China main port area increased by 4.7 tons from the previous period [15] 2.3 Metal Futures - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of significant price fluctuations in precious metals [17] - Nearly 50% of lithium - battery enterprises expect lithium carbonate prices to exceed 200,000 yuan by April 1 [17] - Australia plans to buy and stockpile key minerals [17] - On January 12, the price of spodumene forward spot rose [17] - On January 12, the market transaction price of battery - grade lithium fluoride rose by 10,000 yuan per ton [19] 2.4 Black - Series Futures - The Dalian Commodity Exchange solicited opinions on adjusting the inspection method for iron ore delivery quality standards [21] - From January 5 - 11, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while the global iron ore shipping volume decreased [21] - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate dropped to a two - month low [21] - Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on January 12 [22] 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - In the 2025/26 season, China's soybean production was slightly adjusted, with an expected output of 20.91 million tons [25] - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 10 increased, while production decreased [25] - As of January 7, the hog - to - corn ratio was 5.51, up 2.04% from December 31, 2025 [26] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December increased by 7.58% month - on - month [26] - Brazilian soybean harvest rate as of last Thursday was 0.6% [27] - As of January 8, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.529707 million tons [27] - The 2025/26 global soybean production is expected to increase by 3.1 million tons [28] - The US corn production in 2025/26 is expected to increase [28] 3. Financial Markets 3.1 Financial Sector - A - share commercial space concept stocks and AI concept stocks issued risk warnings [30] - Hong Kong stocks rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.44% [30] - Fund companies adjusted the operation mechanisms of precious - metal - related funds [30] - Brain - computer interface company Strong Brain Technology secretly submitted a Hong Kong IPO application [31] - XPeng's flying car division submitted a confidential Hong Kong IPO application [32] 3.2 Industrial Sector - The global memory chip industry is in a price - rising cycle, and packaging and testing manufacturers have raised prices [34] - Tianjin will manage the sales prices of new commercial housing [34] - The Mars sample return mission of NASA and ESA was cancelled [34] - The Lihong - 1 aircraft completed its first sub - orbital flight test [34] - Tianjin University completed the first "space brain - computer interface experiment" [35] - A 630℃ power unit generator rotor was successfully installed [35] - Five types of original special cosmetics need to be re - registered as ordinary cosmetics [37] - Banks launched "asset improvement activities" [37] - In 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 2% year - on - year [37] 3.3 Overseas Markets - Trump imposed a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran [38] - Trump warned of huge compensation if the US Supreme Court made an unfavorable tariff ruling [38] - The UK and Germany are discussing deploying troops in Greenland [38] - India's PSLV rocket failed in a launch [38] - US, European, and Asia - Pacific stock markets showed different trends [40][41] - The US House Republicans are promoting a bill to ban insider trading by congressmen [40] - South Korea plans to extend stock trading hours [42] 3.4 Commodity Markets - Domestic and international commodity futures markets generally rose [43][45] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the trading of some clients in lithium carbonate futures [46] 3.5 Bond Markets - China's bond market strengthened, while US bond yields rose [47] 3.6 Foreign Exchange Markets - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB exchange rate index reached new highs [48] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events 4.1 Economic Data - Various economic data such as Japan's trade balance, UK's retail sales, and US CPI will be released [50] 4.2 Events - FOMC members and European Central Bank officials will give speeches [52] - Multiple conferences and expos will be held [52] - China's central bank has reverse repurchase maturities [52]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the anticipated appreciation of the RMB against the USD due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to foreign exchange gains for airlines [1] - International crude oil prices are projected to decline in 2026, alleviating fuel cost pressures for airlines [1] - Limited capacity expansion for domestic airlines is attributed to engine issues, while economic growth is expected to drive structural growth in air travel demand, positively impacting ticket prices and airline profits [1] - Recommended airlines include China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines [1] Group 2: Road Transportation Industry - The road transportation industry in China has entered a mature phase, with total expressway mileage expected to exceed that of the United States by 2024, making it the world's largest [1] - As highway construction investment slows and expiration pressures become evident, a new toll road management regulation may be introduced to revise existing toll periods [1] - Future industry trends are expected to include renovation and expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and business diversification [1] - Recommended company in this sector is Zhongyuan Highway [1] Group 3: Shipping Industry - The global shipping industry is transitioning towards zero-emission energy, with green methanol emerging as a mainstream choice due to its mature technology and effective decarbonization performance [2] - As of November 2025, there are 252 renewable methanol projects tracked globally, with a total installed capacity expected to reach 45.1 million tons by 2030 [2] - The total installed capacity for electro-methanol projects is projected to be 21.8 million tons, while bio-methanol projects are expected to reach 23.3 million tons by 2030 [2] - Recommended companies include CIMC Enric and COSCO Shipping International [2] Group 4: Dry Bulk Shipping - The focus has shifted from the increase in China's iron ore imports to the changes in import sources, which are leading to longer transportation distances [2] - The increase in domestic alumina production and the strong growth trend in imports require ongoing attention [2] - Recommended companies in this segment are China Merchants Energy Shipping and Haitong Development [2]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the anticipated appreciation of the RMB against the USD due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to foreign exchange gains for airlines [1][2] - International crude oil prices are projected to decline in 2026, alleviating fuel cost pressures for airlines [1][2] - Limited capacity expansion for domestic airlines is attributed to engine issues, while economic growth is expected to drive structural growth in air travel demand, positively impacting ticket prices and airline profits [1][2] - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Southern Airlines (600029), Spring Airlines (601021), and Huaxia Airlines (002928) [2] Group 2: Road Transportation Industry - The road transportation industry in China has entered a mature phase, with total expressway mileage surpassing that of the United States, making it the largest in the world as of 2024 [2] - With a slowdown in road construction investment and increasing pressure from expiring tolls, new regulations on toll road management may be introduced [2] - Future trends in the industry are expected to include renovation and expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and business diversification [2] - Recommended stock in the road transportation sector is Zhongyuan Expressway (600020) [2] Group 3: Shipping Industry - The global shipping industry is transitioning towards zero-emission energy, with green methanol emerging as a mainstream choice due to its mature technology and effective decarbonization performance [3] - As of November 2025, there are 252 renewable methanol projects tracked globally, with an expected total installed capacity of 45.1 million tons by 2030 [3] - The total installed capacity for all electro-methanol projects is projected to be 21.8 million tons, while bio-methanol projects are expected to reach 23.3 million tons by 2030 [3] - Recommended stocks in the shipping sector include CIMC Enric and COSCO Shipping International [3] Group 4: Dry Bulk Shipping - The focus has shifted from the increase in China's iron ore imports to the changes in the sources of iron ore imports, which are leading to longer transportation distances [3] - The increase in domestic alumina production and the strong growth trend in imports require ongoing attention [3] - Recommended stocks in the dry bulk shipping sector include China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) and Haitong Development (603162) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products may impact shipping companies' pricing behavior, leading to potential upward adjustments in the valuation of the 02 contract [2][3][9] Group 1: Shipping Pricing and Contract Valuation - The 02 contract valuation is expected to face upward revision risks due to the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy [3][9] - Shipping companies' pricing behavior is under scrutiny, particularly regarding Maersk's quotes in the last week of January and potential price increases in February [2][3] - The MSC price for the second half of January is reported at $2840/FEU, remaining stable compared to the first half, while Maersk's quote for the last week of January from Shanghai to Rotterdam is $2700/FEU, reflecting a $100/FEU increase [2][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Seasonal Trends - There is an urgent shipping demand from some solar photovoltaic companies following the policy change, leading to potential export rush [3][9] - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate may disrupt the shipping rhythm for the industry, particularly affecting the 04 contract's seasonal characteristics, with expected increased volatility [3][9] - Historically, April and October are the lowest months for shipping rates, and the recent policy change may alter the shipping volume and actual rates compared to typical years [3][9]

2026 年 1 月 13 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注开舱指引；04 轻仓试空 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表 | 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,748.0 | 1.03% | 16,668 | 13,344 | -4,359 | 1.25 | 0.64 | | | EC2604 | 1,280.8 | 11.30% | 64,695 | 37,092 | 8,071 | 1.74 | 0.47 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/1/12 | | ...

Market Performance - US stock market closed with the Dow Jones up 0.17%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, and Nasdaq up 0.26% [1] - Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 4.2%, with Bilibili up 9%, Alibaba up 10%, and Xpeng Motors up 8% [1] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 2.87%, closing at $4630.1 per ounce; silver futures rose by 6.95% [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.64%, closing at $59.50 per barrel; US oil main contract increased by 1.22%, closing at $59.84 per barrel [1] - Shanghai gold main contract rose by 1.31%, closing at 1030 yuan per gram; Shanghai silver main contract increased by 7.23%, closing at 21268 yuan per kilogram [1] Corporate Developments - Meta Platforms plans to lay off about 10% of its workforce in Reality Labs [5] - Apple has selected Google's Gemini to run the upcoming AI Siri system, with Google's market value surpassing $4 trillion [6] - OpenAI acquired the AI healthcare application Torch for $100 million, advancing its ChatGPT Health initiative [7] Geopolitical Events - Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries conducting business with Iran, effective immediately [4] - The White House stated that diplomacy is the preferred approach for the US in dealing with the Iran situation, with airstrikes being one of many options [9] - The EU Commission spokesperson indicated readiness to impose new and stricter sanctions on Iran [10] - The EU Parliament President decided to ban all Iranian diplomats and representatives from entering EU Parliament premises [13] Financial Market Indicators - The US 10-year Treasury bond auction had a bid yield of 4.173% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55 [12]

Group 1: Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces has improved slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year rise of 1.3 percentage points to 2.2% [1][4] - Apparent steel consumption has decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 0.6% and a year-on-year drop of 1.5 percentage points to 0.6% [1][6] - Steel social inventory continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.5% [1] Group 2: Chemical and Automotive Industries - In the chemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash has significantly increased, with a week-on-week rise of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points to -2.2% [10][11] - The operating rate of PTA has also improved, with a week-on-week increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year rise of 4.1 percentage points to -4.2% [10][14] - The automotive sector shows weaker performance, with the operating rate of semi-steel tires declining by 2.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 2.8 percentage points to -13% [10] Group 3: Construction Industry - The cement production and demand have marginally improved, with a week-on-week increase in grinding operating rate of 2.1% and a year-on-year rise of 5.2 percentage points to 9.9% [22][23] - Cement shipment rates have slightly decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 1.5% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points to 0.5% [22][26] - Cement inventory continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% [22][29] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased by 47.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 13.6 percentage points to 38.4% [44][45] - The transaction volume in first-tier and second-tier cities remains weak, with week-on-week declines of 30.8% and 61.9% respectively [44][48][51] - Port cargo throughput has also declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6 percentage points to -0.4% [56][63] Group 5: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices show differentiation, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.4% [98][99] - The industrial product price index has risen by 1.7% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 0.7% and the metal price index rising by 3.9% [110][111]