Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][29]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is experiencing a significant upward cycle driven by domestic demand and military modernization efforts, particularly the transition to "mechanization + informationization" and the upcoming "intelligent + unmanned" era [5][6]. - The report highlights the increasing global military trade demand due to geopolitical changes, which is expected to create a strong resonance between supply and demand in China's military trade [5]. - The valuation of the military industry is projected to rise as the sector benefits from both domestic construction cycles and the reshaping of global military trade dynamics, leading to higher market recognition and valuation [5][14]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 1.36%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 1.3%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.54% [4][6]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 13th among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [6]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Morningstar Aviation (24.21%) - China Ship Emergency (20.23%) - Xuanji Information (17.67%) - Rongfa Nuclear Power (17.02%) - Parker New Materials (12.24%) [6][13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 81.14, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 70.36% since January 2014 and 99.24% since January 2019 [14][19]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [14][19]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists several key targets within the military sector, including: - High-end combat capabilities: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, Inner Mongolia First Machinery, and others. - New quality combat capabilities: Chengdu Huamei, Xindong Link, Aerospace Electronics, and others [5][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that sectors such as military, new energy, and resource products have shown higher winning rates in market performance over the past decade, particularly in July [1] - The report indicates that the military sector has benefited from policy catalysts and order releases, while resource products have seen improvements in supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic easing expectations [2][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of not being misled by superficial market appearances, suggesting that investors often struggle to act on known opportunities due to emotional biases [2][5] Group 2 - The report advocates for a strategy of "timely stock rotation" over "blind holding" during bull markets, suggesting that the former allows for greater flexibility while the latter is merely speculative [5] - It points out that historical performance does not guarantee future results, stressing the need for discipline in investment decisions [5] - The report uses the example of bank stocks, which have seen a resurgence since 2022 despite initial skepticism, to illustrate the importance of recognizing institutional buying patterns [7] Group 3 - The report contrasts the performance of bank stocks with that of the liquor sector, which has seen a lack of institutional support leading to fleeting rebounds [9] - It emphasizes that without funding support, even low-priced stocks are not worth investing in, highlighting the critical role of capital flow in determining stock price movements [9] - The report advocates for the use of quantitative data to uncover market truths, arguing that emotional reactions and price movements can be misleading [9]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed by President Trump, aims to extend tax cuts and includes various provisions affecting multiple industries, while also raising concerns about long-term fiscal implications and increasing federal deficits [1][2]. Winners - **Chip Manufacturers**: The Act increases tax credits for chip manufacturers building new factories in the U.S. from 25% to 35%, incentivizing domestic production [3]. - **Energy Companies**: The Act reopens oil and gas leasing auctions and lowers royalty rates, benefiting oil and gas producers [5]. - **Airlines**: A $12.5 billion fund is allocated for modernizing air traffic control systems, which is supported by airline executives [6]. - **Real Estate Developers**: The Act expands tax incentives for commercial real estate investors, including a 12% increase in low-income housing tax credits [7]. - **Defense Contractors**: The Pentagon plans to invest approximately $150 billion over five years in defense projects, benefiting companies like Lockheed Martin [8]. - **Private Student Loan Institutions**: Changes in federal student loan limits may drive more students to private lenders like SoFi [9]. - **Manufacturers**: The Act provides tax deductions for manufacturing costs for factories that begin operations after January 19, 2025 [10]. Losers - **Electric Vehicle Manufacturers**: The Act terminates subsidies for electric vehicle purchases, posing challenges for companies like Tesla and Ford [12]. - **Solar and Wind Energy Companies**: The expiration of specific tax credits for renewable energy projects may lead to a decline in orders and customer retention [13]. - **AI Companies**: The removal of a provision to pause state-level AI regulations may hinder innovation in the sector [13]. - **Certain Colleges**: A new tiered tax rate on investment income for private colleges may negatively impact prestigious institutions like Harvard and Yale [14]. - **Food Companies**: Cuts to the SNAP program could lead to decreased sales for major food companies reliant on SNAP beneficiaries [15]. - **Logistics Companies**: The elimination of tax exemptions for small packages may reduce demand for shipping services from companies like FedEx and UPS [16].

Market Overview - A-shares have shown a steady upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs for the year and approaching 3500 points, while major blue-chip stocks performed well [1] - Margin trading funds have recorded a net buy for nine consecutive days, totaling over 18.9 billion yuan this week, with a financing balance reaching 1.85 trillion yuan, the highest in nearly three months [1] Industry Performance - The power equipment industry saw over 3 billion yuan in net buying, while the non-ferrous metals and defense industries each received over 2 billion yuan [1] - The electronics, communications, basic chemicals, and computer sectors also attracted over 1 billion yuan in net buying [1] - Only five sectors, including oil and petrochemicals, construction decoration, and coal, experienced slight net selling [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The electronics and pharmaceutical industries each received over 20 billion yuan in net inflows from major funds this week, while basic chemicals, machinery, and public utilities saw over 8 billion yuan in net inflows [1] - The non-bank financial sector experienced a net outflow of over 5.7 billion yuan, with slight outflows in beauty care, retail, and computer sectors [1] Banking Sector Insights - After a brief adjustment, bank stocks have regained momentum, with several banks, including ICBC and CITIC Bank, reaching historical highs [2] - Market expectations for mid-term dividends from bank stocks are rising, with Changshu Bank announcing a proposal for a mid-term profit distribution plan [2] - In Q1, Changshu Bank reported revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.81% [2] Dividend Trends - In 2024, a significant number of listed companies are expected to announce mid-term dividend plans, with banks being the main contributors [3] - Long-term holding of dividend-paying bank stocks is expected to support sustained stock price increases due to higher liquidity and more predictable cash flows [3] - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is anticipated to provide new policy signals that could benefit financial, technology, and quality consumer sectors [3]

Group 1 - Slovenian lawmakers support a referendum on the defense spending plan [1]

韩国国防股全面走低，韩华航空航天跌5.3%。 ...

每日市场观察 2025 年 7 月 4 日 【今日关注】 上午开盘后，中证全指震荡走弱；十一点后指数转升，最终收涨 0.60%。 成交量较前一交易日略有收缩，但仍处于六月以来的较高水平。两市 上涨家数超 3000 家，呈现出较为明显的普涨局面。本周进入半年报时 间窗口，中证全指走出震荡上行趋势，一定程度能够体现市场持续乐 观的投资情绪。 军工概念股有部分出现回调，但领涨龙头依然表现强势。由于阅兵日 期在九月，距今尚有两月的时间，因此军工概念短期内不大可能立刻 降温。消费电子今日涨幅领先，大概率与美国解除禁令的消息有关。 短期内，国产芯片可能会受到冲击，但长期来看，国产替代仍然是降 低风险的主要选择。 军工的热度有望延续，短线投资者可适当参与。解禁消息短期看是利 好，长期则需观察市场博弈情况。"十五五"计划会重点关注哪些领 域，市场现在已经开始探索。在正式文件发布之前，热门板块均有博 弈机会。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：7 月 3 日，市场全天震荡反弹，创业板指领涨。截至收盘， 沪指涨 0.18%，深成指涨 1.17%，创业板指涨 1.9%。 【消息面】 1.国家数据局局长刘烈宏：深化数据资源流通利用和数据要素市 ...

主力资金监控：沃尔核材净买入超9亿 | 排名 | 股票名称 | 主力资金净流出(亿元) | 主力资金净流出率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 好上好 | -3.83 | -21.69 | | 2 | 东方财富 | -3.44 | -10.75 | | 3 | 中京电子 | -2.50 | -9.98 | | র্ম | 国脉科技 | -2.31 | -12.69 | | 5 | 比亚迪 | -2.21 | -15.38 | | 6 | 长城军工 | -2.11 | -13.59 | | 7 | 山子高科 | -2.03 | -30.62 | | 8 | 盈方微 | -1.99 | -17.46 | | g | 博敏电子 | -1.93 | -11.83 | | 10 | 国轩高科 | -1.91 | -14.04 | 星矿主力资金监控：早盘买入前十榜（截止时间： 10 时 50 分) 智通财经7月4日电，智通财经星矿数据显示，今日早盘主力资金净流入银行、公用事业、计算机等板块，净流出电子、有色金属、 国防军工等板块，其中电子板块净流出超37亿元。个股方面，沃尔核材涨停 ...

晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 7 月 4 日 期指：消息面波澜不惊，或震荡偏强 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3968.07 | ↑0.62 | | 2696.1 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3946.6 | ↑0.69 | -21.47 | 326.9 | 27681 | ↑523 | 60854 | ↑185 | | IF2508 | 3928 | ↑0.66 | -40.07 | 22.2 | 1886 | ↑17 | 4742 | ↑568 | | IF2509 | 3918 | ↑0.67 | -50.07 | 446.5 | 38088 | ↑2787 | 132375 | ↓663 | | IF2512 | 3879 | ↑0.64 | -89.07 | 68 ...