Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.10% as of 13:58, with a trading volume of 1,241.22 million shares and a total transaction value of 22,399.03 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 10.83% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Basic Chemicals: Up by 2.11% with a transaction value of 1,066.38 billion yuan, an increase of 6.61% from the previous day, led by Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, which rose by 10.06% [1]. - Defense and Military: Increased by 1.94% with a transaction value of 1,217.27 billion yuan, down by 6.48%, with the leading stock being Hangya Technology, up by 15.46% [1]. - Social Services: Rose by 1.28% with a transaction value of 212.48 billion yuan, down by 2.04%, led by Electric Science Institute, which increased by 14.34% [1]. Declining Sectors - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Computer: Decreased by 1.44% with a transaction value of 1,703.51 billion yuan, down by 23.00%, led by Zhizhen Technology, which fell by 10.00% [2]. - Communication: Down by 1.23% with a transaction value of 1,173.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.98%, with Ruijie Networks declining by 12.04% [2]. - Banking: Fell by 0.85% with a transaction value of 223.59 billion yuan, down by 25.07%, led by Ningbo Bank, which decreased by 3.34% [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Overweight" [12] Core Insights - The military industry is expected to have a long-term positive trend, supported by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which emphasizes achieving the centenary goal of building a strong military and advancing the modernization of national defense and the military [7][8] - The military sector has recently experienced a decline, with the defense and military index dropping by 5.66%, underperforming the market by 5.21 percentage points [12][13] - Major aerospace state-owned enterprises have set goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on advancing aerospace defense industries and internationalization [8][9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military sector index fell by 5.66% from January 12 to January 17, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.45% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.0% [12][13] - The China Securities National Security Index performed the best among military indices, with a decline of 1.77% [15] Major News in the Military Industry - Internationally, Russia has conducted large-scale strikes on Ukrainian military and energy facilities using precision-guided weapons and drones [21][22] - Domestically, the aerospace industry is focusing on key tasks for the 14th Five-Year Plan, including advancements in manned lunar missions and deep space exploration [8][9] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, Aero Engine Corporation of China 2. Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Zhimin Technology, Shaanxi Huada, Ruichuang Micro-Nano, Unisoc 3. Subsystems: Aerospace Electronics, Guorui Technology, Guobang Electronics, AVIC Avionics, Northern Navigation, Aerospace Nanhu 4. Materials and Processing: Jiachih Technology, AVIC High-Tech, Western Materials, Aviation Materials, Hangya Technology, Guangwei Composite, Filihua, Huayin Technology, Bolite [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of commercial aerospace and the progress of domestic large aircraft international certification [2] - The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has begun flight testing the C919, which is expected to accelerate the global expansion of China's commercial aviation [11] - The aerospace work conference highlighted the need to break through reusable rocket technology, which is anticipated to accelerate the development of China's commercial aerospace industry [12] - The report continues to favor investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, military trade, and new quality combat capabilities [14] Summary by Sections 1.1 EASA Flight Testing of C919 - EASA has initiated flight evaluations of the C919 in Shanghai, indicating that the aircraft's performance is good and safe, with minor adjustments needed [11] - This certification is crucial for the C919 to enter international markets and compete with Boeing and Airbus, potentially reshaping the global civil aviation market [11] 1.2 Breakthrough in Reusable Rocket Technology - The aerospace work conference emphasized the importance of advancing reusable rocket technology and developing commercial aerospace and low-altitude economies [12] - The focus on low-orbit satellite constellations is seen as a new arena for major powers in space competition, with significant implications for satellite manufacturing, launching, and operations [13] 1.3 Continued Focus on Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will enhance the military sector's value, with a focus on unmanned and anti-unmanned equipment, deep-sea technology, and combat informationization [14] - The military sector is expected to see growth from both civilian and military trade, with a list of recommended stocks for investment opportunities in various segments [14][15]

公司1月14日在交易所互动平台披露，截至最新（1月10日）股东户数为16964户，较上期（12月31日） 增加2618户，环比增长18.25%。这是该股股东户数连续第3期增长，也就是说筹码呈持续分散趋势。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入5.85亿元，同比增长579.06%，实现净利润 3748.59万元，同比增长163.91%，基本每股收益为0.1100元，加权平均净资产收益率1.46%。（数据 宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 航天南湖股价创出历史新高，截至10:50，该股上涨9.76%，股价报50.60元，成交量740.88万股，成交金 额3.52亿元，换手率8.53%，该股最新A股总市值达170.65亿元，该股A股流通市值43.93亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，航天南湖所属的国防军工行业，目前整体涨幅为0.70%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有92只，涨幅居前的有航天南湖、航亚科技、北摩高科等，涨幅分别为9.76%、8.77%、7.88%。 股价下跌的有49只，跌停的有海格通信、盛路通信等4只。 两融数据显示，该股最新（1月16日）两融余额为2.22亿元，其中，融资余额为2.22亿元 ...

一、相比 2024-25 年，AI 投资耗材的绝对量将大幅上升 90 年代后期互联网相关投资上升，但每单位产出的"耗材量"呈快速下降 趋势，本轮 AI 投资不仅相对（GDP 等）数额更大，"耗材密度"也更高。 2026 年，AI 投资周期将更多向数据中心和电力基础设施扩散。对大宗商品 的需求将指数型上升，且这类需求的价格敏感度较低。虽然需求侧的预测存 在分歧，但鉴于供给侧自律性明显上升，且过去数年 AI 相关需求预测均大 幅低于最终实现投资量，预计 AI+投资仍将对相关商品价格形成较强支撑。 二、2026 年全球财政同步宽松、且国防及公共投资支出比例上升 今年美、欧、日等均将实施扩张性财政政策。不同于疫情后以补贴收入为主 的各轮宽松，本轮财政扩张聚焦国防自主、供应链安全等、对应"耗材量" 也将明显上升（参见《如果美国对北约成员加征关税》，2026/1/18）。近 期，特朗普政府对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，并公开表示争取格陵兰岛主权的 计划，均将刺激全球国防支出继续上升，这一新增需求的价格敏感度也较低。 证券研究报告 宏观 更"耗材"的全球投资周期意味着什么？ 2026 年 1 月 19 日│中国内地 深度研究 2 ...

特朗普向华尔街"开火"、美联储主席之争出现变数 20260118 摘要 特朗普政府为应对高物价、高利率和高房价，推出包括限制信用卡利率 上限至 10%等一系列政策，旨在降低民众生活成本，争取中期选举选民 支持，但引发华尔街强烈批评。 美国住房可负担性指数处于历史低位，信用卡拖欠率接近 2008 年前期 高点，平均利率高达 21%，特朗普政府试图通过价格管制降低借款人成 本，但可能导致信贷供给减少，加剧居民现金流压力。 为应对 AI 浪潮带来的电价上涨，特朗普政府推动电网运营商拍卖，并要 求大型科技公司自建电厂，但此举导致相关电力公司股价下跌，反映出 政策干预对企业利益的潜在损害。 今年中期选举选民关注点已从股价转向生活成本，特朗普政府可能更倾 向于维护选票需求，即使这意味着牺牲部分华尔街和企业利益，资本市 场利益与选民情绪的冲突加剧。 小盘股如罗素 2000 指数表现突出，反映资金进行风格轮动，从大型科 技股转向相对安全、不受政策干扰的板块，中低收入者和中小企业相关 板块及必需消费品类股票可能受益。 Q&A 2026 年初，特朗普政府在政策上有哪些重要变化，特别是针对华尔街的措施？ 2026 年初，特朗普政府 ...

中国银河（601881）证券发布研究报告称，随着2026年开年以来投资者情绪高度活跃，两融余额持续上 行，本周融资保证金比例上调，体现出引导理性投资、维护市场稳定的政策信号。证监会2026年系统工 作会议强调"稳字当头"，部署五大重点任务，有助于夯实市场长牛、慢牛基础，短期震荡整固不改长期 向好态势。 关注"两条主线+两条辅助线"。主线一，全球百年未遇之大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质 生产力。春季躁动行情中，科技创新与成长板块轮动上行机会较大，短期关注轮动补涨机会。主线二， 反内卷政策温和推进，供需结构优化叠加价格回升预期带动下，制造业、资源板块盈利修复路径清晰， 重点关注有色金属、基础化工、电力设备等行业。辅助线一，2026年消费品以旧换新政策延续，扩大内 需政策导向下消费板块迎来布局窗口。辅助线二，出海趋势将带动企业盈利空间进一步打开。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： A股市场投资展望：随着2026年开年以来投资者情绪高度活跃，两融余额持续上行，本周融资保证金比 例上调，体现出引导理性投资、维护市场稳定的政策信号。2026年以来，融资净买入额靠前的电子、计 算机、有色金属等行业或受到部分杠杆情绪降温 ...

Market Insights - The report indicates that the increase in financing margin ratios is gradually being digested by the market, with the impact nearing its end. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts are expected to boost policy expectations, and additional policies may be introduced following the release of macroeconomic data for 2025, which could enhance market risk appetite [3][4] - The upcoming release of 2025 macroeconomic data on January 19 is anticipated to show a significant decline in GDP growth for Q4 compared to Q3. This, combined with various policy measures, suggests an increased probability of a "good start" for Q1, which is likely to uplift market risk appetite [4][11] Industry Allocation - The report asserts that the acceleration in market trends has not ended, but the structure of the upward trend is shifting towards computing power. The previous leading sectors, such as military and AI applications, have seen declines, raising investor concerns about the end of the current market phase. However, the report suggests that the current market phase may still extend with potential acceleration in sectors related to computing power [5][20] - As of January 12, 2026, the electric equipment sector has not yet reached new highs, indicating that the growth style and six major growth industries have not simultaneously achieved new highs. The report highlights that the electric equipment index has room for approximately 3% growth to meet this condition [20][23] - The report identifies that the communication and electronic sectors, which were previously strong, may experience a rapid rebound, with potential upward space of no less than 10%. The report emphasizes that the current market conditions do not satisfy the "stronger gets stronger" characteristic, as the leading sectors have not maintained their strength [20][24] - The report also notes that the turnover rates for the growth style and the communication sector are approaching their respective highs, but the communication sector still has a significant gap to close. This suggests that the current market phase has not yet concluded, and a rapid increase in turnover rates may accompany a rebound in the communication sector [27][31] Key Investment Themes - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. The AI industry chain, particularly in computing power (CPO/PCB), supporting components (fiber optics/liquid cooling/power equipment), and applications (robots/games/software), is expected to continue its upward trend. The report anticipates that applications may experience high volatility, while computing power is likely to see accelerated growth [32][33] 2. Areas supported by favorable market conditions or significant events, such as storage and energy storage chains, military industry, and machinery, are also highlighted. The storage sector is expected to benefit from supply disruptions and increased AI demand, while the military sector may gain from commercial aerospace and geopolitical events [33]

投资要点： | | | | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 曹君豪(分析师) | | | 021-23185657 | | | caojunhao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040094 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260116） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 市场下周有望震荡上行 本报告导读： 从技术面来看，均线强弱指数有所降低，后续指数上行空间充足；情绪模型显示市 场情绪有所减弱，但依旧处于做多趋势中；高频资金流模型显示各大宽基指数依旧 处于做多周期。因此，我们认为，市场下周有望震荡上行。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 金 融 低频选股因子周报（2026.01.09-2026.01.16） 2026.01.17 绝对收益产品及策略周报（260105-260109） 2026.01.14 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260109） 2026.01.12 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent acceleration in net financing inflow has provided incremental capital to the market, driving individual stock performance while significantly increasing overall market leverage and potential volatility risks [5][30]. - To mitigate the rapid rise in leverage, regulatory measures have been intensified, including raising the margin requirement for financing from 80% to 100%, which aims to control new leverage without impacting existing contracts [7][17]. - The report anticipates that the A-share market is likely to shift to a volatile trend after reaching previous highs, with a focus on performance disclosures expected to intensify as the earnings forecast disclosure peak approaches on January 15 [2][30]. Market Analysis - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a high trading volume, with total market turnover exceeding 3.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the week, followed by a drop below 3 trillion yuan after the margin policy announcement [32]. - The technology sector, particularly AI computing and semiconductor equipment, is identified as a key battleground for January, alongside resource products represented by industrial metals [5][30]. - The report notes that the net outflow from ETFs, amounting to 129.6 billion yuan, has contributed to cooling market enthusiasm, with significant withdrawals from major ETFs such as the CSI 300 ETF [12][15]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that sectors such as computing, electronics, and non-ferrous metals have seen positive valuation trends, while sectors like defense, real estate, and steel have experienced declines [30][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical and technology sectors for investment strategies, recommending a focus on industries such as electric equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, electronics, and basic chemicals [6][31]. - The report also highlights the improvement in the semiconductor industry, with December exports of integrated circuits showing a year-on-year increase of 47.72%, indicating a positive trend in the tech sector [38][41]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a preference for large-cap growth stocks in the current market environment, recommending index combinations including CSI 300, STAR Market 50, and quality indices [6][31]. - It advises that industry allocation should focus on spring market dynamics and forward-looking clues from annual reports, particularly in cyclical and technology sectors [6][31]. - The report underscores the significance of monitoring performance disclosures, especially for small-cap and thematic stocks, as they may face pressure from earnings forecasts [5][30].