【文/观察者网 王勇 编辑/赵乾坤】 航班大面积取消、酒店空房率攀升、商场客流锐减、零售额显著下滑……随着中国游客数量急剧萎缩， 日本旅游业正承受前所未有的压力。 多家日本媒体报道指出，中国赴日游客的"断崖式"下降，已为当地旅游业蒙上阴影。一项最新抽样调查 显示，在12月5日至9日期间受访的日本旅游企业中，超过四成（42.8%）认为中国游客骤减已对日本经 济产生显著负面影响。而在旅游客运与仓储行业，这一比例更高达53.8%。 中国游客数量锐减后，日本当地人这样说 据日本朝日电视台日前报道，自高市早苗发表涉台错误言论以来，日本各地旅游业受到巨大冲击，该电 视台记者前往静冈县知名旅游城市伊东市，采访当地出租车公司负责人时发现，"以前出租车公司一天 要接送100多组中国游客，现在只有10组不到。" 在京都，一家餐饮店负责人也表达了类似的忧虑。他透露，以往中国游客占外宾总数的约八成，如今却 几乎不见踪影。"如果这种情况持续下去，"他坦言，"我们真的非常担忧。"在大阪，旅游公司、餐饮从 业者等大量商户表示，中国游客锐减，让他们的营业额"惨不忍睹"。 神奈川县镰仓市一家商店员工表示："此前，店里光顾的外国顾客中约有70% ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific Airways reported significant growth in passenger and cargo volumes for November 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, indicating a strong recovery in demand and optimistic outlook for future travel seasons [1] Passenger Traffic - In November 2025, Cathay Pacific's passenger volume reached 2.5304 million, a 26% increase year-on-year, with available seat kilometers up by 22% [1] - For the first 11 months of 2025, total passenger numbers were 26.1308 million, reflecting a 27% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Hong Kong Express recorded nearly 640,000 passengers in November 2025, a 27% increase year-on-year, with available seat kilometers increasing by 18% [1] - The overall passenger load factor reached 87%, the highest for a single month in two years, driven by strong demand from Northeast Asia, Europe, and Southeast Asia [1] Cargo Traffic - Cathay Pacific's cargo operations transported 157,500 metric tons in November 2025, a 10% increase from November 2024, with available cargo ton kilometers rising by 7% [1] - For the first 11 months of 2025, cargo volume also increased by 10% compared to the previous year [1] - The company noted robust demand for specialized cargo services, particularly in Northeast Asia and South America, indicating a strong air freight peak season expected to last until December [1] Financial Performance - The group achieved approximately HKD 900 million in other income in the second half of the year from a non-recurring gain related to a settlement agreement with a supplier [1] - Historically, the second half of the year has been a strong performance period for the group, and the overall financial performance for 2025 is expected to surpass last year's solid results [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to accelerate in the short term, with a positive outlook for technology and non-bank sectors. Opportunities in cyclical and consumer goods are also worth noting. The impact of institutional profit protection and reduced positions on the market has been largely digested, with the ChiNext showing strong performance, indicating that the technology market is far from over [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategy**: The focus remains on technology and non-bank sectors, while also considering transformation opportunities in cyclical and consumer goods. The liquidity aspect suggests that the market's adjustment is more about liquidity than value judgment [3][4]. - **Economic Policy**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing investment and reducing inventory in real estate, aiming to address the negative growth in investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) [4][5]. - **Market Style Prediction for 2026**: The market is expected to favor quality growth or a return to fundamental strategies, with opportunities in both technology and non-technology sectors, as well as large-cap and small-cap stocks [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights Aviation Industry - **Investment Logic**: The aviation sector's investment logic for the next two years is based on favorable oil prices, exchange rates, and national policies to boost consumption. High passenger load factors are expected to shift towards price increases, improving supply-demand dynamics and profitability [8][9]. Oil Shipping Industry - **Current Fundamentals**: The oil shipping industry remains robust, with crude oil freight rates maintaining high levels. The fourth quarter and annual profits are expected to reach a ten-year high. The supply-demand relationship in the compliant market continues to improve, with optimistic expectations reflected in rising one-year charter rates [10]. Chemical Industry - **Market Performance**: The chemical market is showing strength, particularly in new energy chemical materials. The spandex sector is expected to see a turning point, with companies like Huafeng Chemical showing potential due to cost advantages [11][12]. Metal Industry - **Future Outlook**: The metal industry is expected to be in a bull market phase, with optimism driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to perform well, with strong demand driven by AI trends [14][15]. Petrochemical Industry - **Oil Price Predictions**: Oil prices are expected to face pressure in the first half of the year but may recover in the second half due to improving supply-demand dynamics. Companies like CNOOC and PetroChina are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [16][17]. Coal Market - **Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions**: The coal market is currently experiencing a price correction but is expected to stabilize between 650-670 RMB. Long-term, coal prices may enter a new upward cycle, with companies like China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal Mining recommended for their production capacity [22]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **Investment Recommendations**: Specific companies and sectors are highlighted for potential investment, including technology stocks, financial services, and cyclical consumer goods that can successfully transition [6][7][27]. - **Public Utilities Concerns**: The public utilities sector faces concerns regarding electricity prices, but companies with strong dividend commitments are recommended for investment [26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various sectors.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Goldman Sachs projects a positive outlook for the global transportation industry by 2026, particularly in the aviation and oil tanker sectors, while expressing caution in the container shipping segment [1] Group 2 - In the aviation sector, Goldman Sachs expects international demand to rise and supply constraints to persist, leading to an estimated return on equity of 22% for airlines by 2027, which exceeds the industry cycle average [1] - The report highlights a preference for specific airline stocks, namely Air China H-shares and China Eastern Airlines A-shares, due to anticipated upward pressure on ticket prices [1] Group 3 - In the container shipping sector, Goldman Sachs has adopted a cautious stance due to a recovery in supply, which is expected to compress industry profit margins [1] - The report notes that new ship orders have exceeded expectations, with orders representing 33% of existing capacity, and potential reopening of the Red Sea could pose downward risks by releasing about 10% of effective capacity [1] Group 4 - In the oil tanker segment, Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook, forecasting a continued upward cycle in spot freight rates through 2026 [1] - The report indicates that China's oil reserve process may take up to a year, exceeding market expectations, while effective capacity is projected to grow by only 1%, benefiting companies like China Merchants Energy due to their exposure to the oil tanker and Chinese import markets [1]

日本一些经济观察家曾直言，中国制造业的实力远超外界想象，尤其在面对全球供应链调整时，那种顽强适应力让人佩服。 印度虽有庞大人口，但基础设施和政策落地总跟不上，导致没法真正挑战中国。 这话不是空谈，基于2024年贸易数据，中国出口增长稳健，制造业份额占全球大头，而印度还在起步挣扎。 日本人这么看，是因为他们亲眼见识过类似竞争，却发现中国走得更远。 想想2022年卡塔尔世界杯，中国几乎包办了从体育场到纪念品的供应。卢塞尔体育场是中国团队建的，质量过硬，直接上了卡塔尔纸币。 义乌生产的吉祥物和周边占了七成市场，法国奥运也大多靠中国工厂。 印度想分杯羹，但本地产能总出问题，成本高企。日本专家说，这体现了中国供应链的完整性，印度还差得远。 再看航空业，中国从运-10起步，到ARJ21和C919逐步国产化。C919在2023年首航后，订单已超千架，国产率过六成。 面对技术封锁，西安飞机集团自己攻克机翼难题。 日本媒体感慨，中国这种逆境中求生的劲头，印度学不来，因为印度本土飞机项目总延期，依赖进口。 中国制造业的核心优势，在于庞大人口规模支撑起的精细化专业分工体系，既能实现成本控制，又能保障稳定的产品质量。 同样坐拥人口红 ...

近日，国泰航空由马尼拉飞往香港的CX918航班误闯跑道，导致另外两架客机在降落期间执行复飞。对 此，12月18日晚，国泰航空有关负责人回应南都N视频记者称，起因系CX918航班滑行期间使用了不正 确的滑行道，乘客及机组人员安全未受影响，航司正就事件开展全面调查，并全力配合相关部门的工 作。 据披露，当地时间12月17日，国泰航空CX918航班在菲律宾马尼拉尼诺伊阿基诺国际机场起飞前滑行期 间，误闯跑道，当地机场空管人员发现该情况后，指示一架由香港飞抵马尼拉的国泰航空航班CX903以 及另一架客机，在降落期间复飞，并指示CX918航班停下。 12月18日晚，国泰航空有关负责人就此事回应南都记者称，涉事航班CX918在滑行期间使用了不正确的 滑行道，当地空管人员为安全起见，指示另两架抵达客机执行标准的复飞程序，再重新降落，并批准 CX918驶入跑道，起飞前往香港。 上述人士表示，事件发生期间，乘客及机组人员的安全均未受到影响，航司正就事件开展全面调查，并 全力配合相关部门的工作。 航旅纵横信息显示，CX918航班于当地时间12月17日18时58分从马尼拉起飞，于当地时间12月17日20时 39分抵达香港，执飞机型 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with a slight increase of 0.12% after a stable influx of funds [1] - The U.S. is increasing pressure on Venezuela, which may tighten oil supply, benefiting companies like Sinopec and Shanghai Petrochemical with stock increases of over 3% and 2% respectively [1] - The U.S. announced a historic $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, which China strongly opposes, potentially impacting market sentiment [1] Industry Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port initiative aims to enhance China's openness, benefiting companies like Meilan Airport and Junda Co., with stock increases of around 4% [2] - The aviation sector is experiencing a surge, with Eastern Airlines reporting a passenger load factor of 87.37%, leading to stock increases of over 8% for the company [3] - Kingston's SSD business anticipates a significant shortage of NAND flash memory, which is expected to drive up SSD prices, positively impacting Shanghai Fudan's non-volatile memory business [4] Corporate Developments - MicroPort Medical's merger with CRM Cayman is set to enhance synergies in structural heart disease and arrhythmia management, with stock rising over 7% [5][6] - Sany International reported a 13.9% year-on-year increase in excavator sales, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets, indicating strong performance in the construction machinery sector [9] - The coal industry is encouraged to upgrade to cleaner technologies, benefiting leading companies like China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal [7][8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,498.13, up by 29.35 points or 0.12% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) decreased by 39.66 points, down 0.73% to 5,418.29 [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) slightly fell by 2.06 points, down 0.02% to 8,841.51 [1] - Sectors such as coal, transportation, banking, and oil & petrochemicals showed gains, while sectors like paper, electrical equipment, machinery, and real estate experienced declines [1] Airline Sector Performance - Airline stocks saw a general increase, with China Eastern Airlines rising over 8%, China Southern Airlines up more than 5%, and Air China increasing by over 4% [2] - The airline index (887825) reported a rise of 42.84 points, or 5.07%, reaching 887.06 [3] - Notable airline stock performances include: - China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) at 5.350, up 8.08% - Beijing Capital International Airport (0694.HK) at 2.850, up 6.74% - China Southern Airlines at 5.880, up 5.57% - Air China at 7.050, up 4.75% [3] Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with SenseTime dropping over 4%, Xiaomi down more than 2%, and Alibaba, JD Health, BYD, and Sunny Optical Technology each falling over 1% [2] - Specific declines include: - SenseTime (商汤-W) at 1.890, down 4.06% - Xiaomi Group (小米集团-W) at 40.200, down 2.47% - Lenovo Group at 9.400, down 1.88% - Sunny Optical Technology at 65.350, down 1.80% [5][6]

智通财经APP讯，深圳国际(00152)发布公告，有关公司的联营公司深圳航空拟分阶段进行增资扩股，合 共增资人民币160亿元，而集团决定不参与增资。深圳航空已通过公开挂牌方式成功引入深圳市鲲航投 资合伙企业(有限合伙)作为新投资者，并于2025年12月18日签署增资协议及相关文件。据此，中国国航 及鲲航投资将分别出资约人民币20.82亿元及人民币20亿元，以认购深圳航空的新增注册资本。于第一 阶段增资完成后，集团所持深圳航空的股权将由49%被摊薄至约28.09%，中国国航及鲲航投资将分别持 有深圳航空51%及约20.91%的股权，深圳航空将继续为公司的联营公司。中国国航及鲲航投资将就后续 增资适时签署相关协议，集团所持深圳航空的股权预计将进一步被摊薄。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the current Chinese consumer market exhibits a significant "K-shaped recovery" characteristic, with a clear divergence between the rebound in the consumption sector and the moderate recovery of mass consumption [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence in the market is primarily driven by supply-side rigid constraints, the wealth effect from high-net-worth individuals, and marginal improvements in policy [1] - The aviation industry faces limitations in effective capacity growth due to delays in aircraft introduction and engine maintenance [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-end retail properties and luxury hotels are achieving leading recovery in foot traffic and revenue due to their scarce locations and brand barriers, despite pressure on demand [1] - The performance of the capital market and the rise in gold prices are providing demand support for cyclical sectors such as luxury goods, high-end tourism, and gaming [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - Industry self-regulatory agreements have effectively solidified the bottom line for airline ticket prices and yields [1] - The optimization of the offshore duty-free policy and the imminent closure of Hainan create potential incremental space for growth [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on operational turning point opportunities driven by the transmission of wealth effects and supply-side optimization, particularly in high-end consumption sectors such as outbound tourism, hotels, gaming, duty-free, luxury goods, high-end beauty care, and premium real estate properties [1]