交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-12原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2506： 1.基本面：美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔描述会谈取得"实质性进展"，并表示将于周一公布 细节；伊美谈判代表为解决伊朗核问题而举行的新一轮会谈于周日在阿曼结束，官员们表示，双方计 划举行进一步谈判；乌克兰总统泽连斯基周日呼吁俄罗斯确认从5月12日开始无条件停火，然后乌克 兰将准备好与俄罗斯举行直接会谈；中性 2.基差：5月9日，阿曼原油现货价为64.12美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为63.38美元/桶，基差 13.26元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至5月2日当周API原油库存减少449 ...

汇丰研究降三桶油目标价 首选中石油 金十数据5月12日讯，汇丰研究发表报告指，中国海洋石油(00883.HK)对于上游勘探和生产的敏感度最 高，预计今年每桶布伦特原油价格每下跌10美元，将会于今年令其盈利减少16%，而明年则减少25%， 但该行仍保持"买入"评级，港股目标价由21港元下调至19.4港元。在三桶油当中，该行仍然偏好中国石 油股份(00857.HK)，该行予"买入"评级，属行业首选，港股目标价由7.5港元下调至6.9港元。相较之 下，中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)下游炼油和石化生产业务面临产能过剩及各种宏观风险，而处境不利 局势。同时，虽然油价较低意味着原材料成本下降，但亦可能使其现有库存面临减值风险，对中石化尤 为不利；予"持有"评级，港股目标价由4.5港元降至4.2港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Saudi Aramco's first-quarter sales reached 405.65 billion riyals, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [1] - The company's net profit for the first quarter was 97.54 billion riyals, which represents a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Saudi Aramco's first-quarter sales significantly exceeded expectations, reaching 405.65 billion riyals, compared to analysts' forecast of 107.72 billion USD [1] - The company's net profit for the first quarter was reported at 97.54 billion riyals, which is substantially higher than the estimated 24.94 billion USD [1] - There was an increase in sales volumes for natural gas, refined products, and chemical products during the quarter, indicating strong operational performance [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Supply-side OPEC+ maintains production limits, but the widening discount of Iraqi heavy oil and the contraction of US shale oil capital expenditure limit overall supply growth; on the demand side, apparent demand is under pressure due to factors such as narrowing refinery profits, weak refined oil consumption, and macro sentiment. The widening discount of SC indicates weaker domestic demand compared to the international market, while the strengthening of the spread of nearby contracts may suggest short-term relief of delivery pressure. In the short term, oil prices may remain in a low-range oscillation, with WTI and Brent fluctuating in the range of $58 - 61, and SC being weaker due to the RMB exchange rate and domestic demand. If the destocking during the US summer driving season falls short of expectations or there are no breakthroughs in geopolitical conflicts, it will be difficult for oil prices to find sustained upward momentum. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to whether OPEC+ adjusts its production policy at the June meeting and the progress of China-US trade negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Price**: On May 8, 2025, the SC crude oil price dropped slightly to 461.0 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 7.2 yuan (-1.54%) from the previous day, with an intraday fluctuation range of [458.9, 483.6], indicating weak market sentiment; the WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $57.95/barrel and $60.95/barrel respectively, lacking a clear short-term direction [1]. - **Spread Change**: The SC-Brent and SC-WTI spreads weakened by $1.09/barrel to $2.76 and $5.76/barrel respectively, reflecting an expansion of the discount of SC relative to international oil prices; the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened by 2.1 yuan to 14.5 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for nearby contracts [1]. 2. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: Iraq adjusted its June Asian crude oil pricing strategy, widening the discount on heavy crude oil to $2.70/barrel, suggesting weak demand from Asian refineries for heavy crude oil; Iran reaffirmed its support for the OPEC+ production cut agreement, while ConocoPhillips cut spending due to oil prices falling below $60/barrel, implying limited growth in shale oil production. In addition, the deepening of China-Russia energy cooperation may support supply stability in the long term [2]. - **Demand Side**: The unexpected increase in US gasoline inventories and a 22.67% month-on-month decrease in Chinese refineries' orders for gasoline and diesel in April indicated a cooling of terminal consumption; the uncertainty of China-US trade negotiations further suppressed risk appetite [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The increase in US commercial crude oil inventories and the unexpected rise in gasoline inventories may intensify short-term concerns about inventory accumulation; under the continuous production cuts by OPEC+, the inventory pressure of OECD member countries may be marginally relieved [2]. 3. Industry Chain Judgment - **Supply**: OPEC+ maintains production limits, but the widening discount of Iraqi heavy oil and the contraction of US shale oil capital expenditure limit overall supply growth [3]. - **Demand**: Apparent demand is under pressure due to factors such as narrowing refinery profits, weak refined oil consumption, and macro sentiment [3]. - **Spread**: The widening discount of SC indicates weaker domestic demand compared to the international market, while the strengthening of the spread of nearby contracts may suggest short-term relief of delivery pressure [3]. - **Price Trend**: In the short term, oil prices may remain in a low-range oscillation, with WTI and Brent fluctuating in the range of $58 - 61, and SC being weaker due to the RMB exchange rate and domestic demand [3]. 4. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of various crude oil futures, spot prices, spreads, and other assets showed different degrees of change. For example, the SC crude oil futures price decreased, while the WTI and Brent prices remained stable; most spot prices decreased; some spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of fuel oil futures, spot prices, spreads, and inventories also showed different trends. For example, the FU futures price decreased slightly, while the LU futures price increased slightly; most spot prices decreased; some spreads changed [6]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On May 8, Iraq set the price of Basra medium crude oil sold to Asia in June at a premium of 45 cents per barrel over the Oman-Dubai average price, and the price of heavy crude oil at a discount of $2.70 per barrel; Iran reaffirmed its support for OPEC+ [7][8]. - **Demand**: Emirates Airlines suspended flights to Pakistan until May 10; in April, the transaction volume in the shipping market for gasoline and diesel from Chinese refineries decreased, with new orders down 22.67% month-on-month [9]. - **Inventory**: The unexpected increase in US gasoline inventories led to a decline in international crude oil futures prices [10]. - **Market Information**: ConocoPhillips cut spending due to oil prices falling below $60/barrel; China and Russia deepened energy cooperation; overnight oil prices dropped significantly; the prices of crude oil and marine fuel raw materials were weak, and the prices of marine fuel in the East China market decreased [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index, which has seen an increase of 8.15% over the past month but a decline of 2.93% over the last three months and a year-to-date decrease of 2.65% [2] - The CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index is composed of securities selected from the CSI Hong Kong 300 index based on industry classification, reflecting the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2][3] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.31%), PetroChina Company Limited (12.47%), Zijin Mining Group (10.38%), China Shenhua Energy Company (10.05%), and Sinopec Limited (9.52%) [2] Group 2 - The market sectors represented in the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index are entirely from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the oil and gas sector accounting for 51.69%, coal at 18.07%, precious metals at 15.59%, industrial metals at 9.95%, and rare metals at 3.15% [3] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, and can also be adjusted temporarily under special circumstances [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report "China Energy Outlook 2060 (2024 Edition)" provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of China's energy development, emphasizing the transition towards renewable energy and the optimization of energy consumption amidst economic recovery and structural changes in the industry [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - China's economic development is experiencing fluctuations but maintains a long-term positive trend, with an accelerated optimization of industrial structure and a steady improvement in energy consumption efficiency [20][24]. - The population has entered a phase of negative growth, but urbanization and aging are driving the electrification and intelligent transformation of energy consumption [30][31]. - Technological advancements are focused on renewable energy alternatives, electrification, and clean utilization, with significant support from key mineral resources and CCUS technology [34][35]. - The policy framework is increasingly systematic and sustainable, promoting the growth of renewable energy consumption while ensuring energy security [20][12]. Group 2: Energy Supply and Demand Outlook - Primary energy consumption is expected to peak between 2030 and 2035 at over 626 million tons of standard coal, then decline to 570-578 million tons by 2060, with non-fossil energy accounting for 80% of the total [2][13]. - Coal consumption is projected to peak at 437 million tons around 2025, decreasing to 38 million tons by 2060, while oil consumption is expected to peak at around 80 million tons during the 14th Five-Year Plan, dropping to 28 million tons by 2060 [14][15]. - Natural gas consumption is anticipated to peak around 2040 at 610 billion cubic meters, then decline to 400 billion cubic meters by 2060, with its role as a transitional energy source being crucial [15][14]. - Non-fossil energy supply is expected to grow rapidly, reaching 454 million tons of standard coal by 2060, with solar and wind energy contributing significantly [15][13]. Group 3: Energy Transition Recommendations - The energy transition is entering a new phase of deceleration and adjustment, necessitating the acceleration of key technology research and the improvement of energy statistics and carbon emission management systems [3][10]. - The report highlights the need to clarify critical issues in exploring energy transition pathways, as the window for exploration is narrowing [3][10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total production averaged nearly 18 MBOE per day, representing a 17% increase on a BOE basis and a 30% increase on an oil basis compared to the previous year [5][6] - Revenue increased by approximately 40% year-over-year, reaching around $43 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $25.5 million from roughly $15 million in the prior year [6][10] - Net income for the quarter was $13 million or $0.35 per basic share, compared to $11 million or $0.30 per basic share in the same period last year [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully drilled its first operated well in the Cherokee drilling program, with initial production expected later this month [12][18] - Adjusted G&A for the quarter was approximately $2.9 million or $1.83 per BOE, showing a slight increase from $2.8 million or $2.03 per BOE in Q1 2024 [10][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas prices improved significantly, with Henry Hub prices rising to $4.3 per Mcf, nearly doubling from February 2024 [16] - Commodity price realizations for the quarter were $69.88 per barrel of oil and $2.69 per Mcf of gas, compared to $71.44 per barrel of oil and $1.47 per Mcf of gas in Q4 2024 [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to spend between $66 million and $85 million in its 2025 capital program, focusing on drilling and completions in the Cherokee Play [21] - The strategy includes maximizing the value of incumbent assets, maintaining optionality for M&A opportunities, and prioritizing a return of capital program [29][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the production growth from the Cherokee assets, anticipating exit rates around 19 MBOE per day by year-end [14] - The company remains flexible in its capital program to respond to commodity price challenges, with the ability to defer projects if necessary [15][22] Other Important Information - The company has no term debt or revolving debt obligations and maintains a substantial cash position of over $100 million, equating to more than $2.75 per share [7][10] - The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.11 per share payable on June 2, 2025 [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for production growth in the Cherokee Play? - Management indicated that production from the Cherokee development is expected to increase significantly, with initial production results anticipated soon [12][14] Question: How is the company managing its capital expenditures in light of commodity price fluctuations? - The company plans to monitor commodity prices closely and may adjust its capital program accordingly, including deferring certain projects if necessary [15][22] Question: What is the outlook for natural gas prices and their impact on operations? - Management noted that natural gas prices have been robust, and the outlook remains strong, providing optionality across the asset base [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream) has shown a recent increase of 12.00% over the past month, despite a decline of 2.47% over the last three months and a year-to-date decrease of 2.19% [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The H300 Upstream Index reported a value of 2304.31 points [1]. - The index is based on the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Index, which selects securities according to industry classification to reflect the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the H300 Upstream Index are: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.2%) - PetroChina Company Limited (12.49%) - Zijin Mining Group (10.46%) - China Shenhua Energy Company (9.9%) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (9.54%) - China Hongqiao Group (3.74%) - China Coal Energy Company (3.28%) - Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.26%) - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.64%) - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (2.41%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Composition - The H300 Upstream Index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. - The sector composition of the index includes: - Oil and Gas: 51.64% - Coal: 17.92% - Precious Metals: 15.77% - Industrial Metals: 10.00% - Rare Metals: 3.17% - Oil and Gas Extraction and Oilfield Services: 1.07% - Other Non-ferrous Metals and Alloys: 0.43% [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year. Temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Oil and Gas Industry Index has shown mixed performance, with a recent decline despite a monthly increase, reflecting the overall volatility in the oil and gas sector [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Oil and Gas Industry Index decreased by 0.45% to 1729.45 points, with a trading volume of 12.33 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has risen by 6.44%, but it has declined by 3.48% over the last three months and 6.14% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes companies involved in oil and gas exploration, equipment manufacturing, transportation, sales, refining, and primary petrochemical production [2]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: China National Petroleum (10.36%), China National Offshore Oil (9.87%), Sinopec (9.52%), Guanghui Energy (5.05%), China Merchants Energy (3.8%), Jereh Group (3.71%), Hengli Petrochemical (3.25%), Satellite Chemical (3.13%), Dongfang Shenghong (2.8%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (2.8%) [2]. Group 3: Market and Sector Breakdown - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 70.98% of the index's holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 29.02% [2]. - The sector breakdown of the index holdings is as follows: Energy (61.45%), Materials (20.71%), Industrials (15.00%), Financials (1.78%), and Utilities (1.06%) [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment and Management - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3]. - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as removing samples that are delisted or handling mergers and acquisitions according to maintenance guidelines [3].