会议明确，要结合制定实施"十五五"规划，着眼于长远发展需要和构筑未来竞争优势，在基础设施、城市更新、公共服务、新兴产业和未来产业等重点 领域，深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。 2026.02. 07 本文字数：1579，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 新年以来，稳投资政策密集加力。 国务院总理李强2月6日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究促进有效投资政策措施。 会议指出，促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用。要创新完善政策措施，加力提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地 方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。 2025年以来投资下行压力加大，国家统计局数据显示，2025年全年完成固定资产投资（不含农户）485186亿元，比上年下降3.8%。 去年底的中央经济工作会议部署今年经济工作重点任务时，明确"推动投资止跌回稳"。适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方 政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。 2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金已经下达，支持工业、能源电力等领域约4500个项目，带动总投资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on various fiscal announcements, the report calculates the supply of government bonds and ultra - long bonds in Q1 2026 and interprets the key points of market - concerned supply [8]. - It analyzes the characteristics of government bond issuance in Q1 2026, including the situation of treasury bonds, local bonds, and makes supply forecasts [1][3][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds: In Q1, the number of issuances changes little, the single - issue scale rises and then falls, and there is room for acceleration in the future 3.1.1 Q1 Treasury Bond Plan: The number of issuances changes little, and 30y bonds use new codes - The number of treasury bond issuances in Q1 2026 is similar to that in the same period of 2025, with the number of coupon - bearing treasury bonds and savings bonds of each term remaining the same as in Q1 2025, and an additional 3M discount treasury bond issued in March 2026. The 50 - year treasury bond is postponed from February to March [9]. - 30y treasury bonds will use new codes. After the announcement, 250002 performed weakly, and 2500006 may continue to be the active bond in the short term. There is a risk of failure in the coupon - bond replacement of 30y ordinary treasury bonds [10]. 3.1.2 Single - issue Scale of Key - term Treasury Bonds: It rises first and then falls, and there may still be room for acceleration in the future - In January 2026, the single - issue scale of 2 - year and 10 - year coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025, which may be due to high maturity pressure, the need to form physical workloads earlier, and to make way for the issuance of special treasury bonds [15][16]. - The single - issue scale of 1 - year treasury bonds later decreased to 135 billion. If the issuance speed of 135 billion continues, the monthly average may be around 150 billion, which is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit rate. To catch up with the net financing progress in 2025 in Q1, the quarterly average single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds needs to reach 170 billion, indicating room for acceleration [18][19]. - Treasury bonds can use the remaining quota for issuance expansion before the Two Sessions. The remaining quota at the beginning of 2026 is expected to be around 580 billion, providing room for expansion [23]. 3.1.3 The quota of ultra - long special treasury bonds is pre - allocated but issued later - No special treasury bonds are scheduled for issuance in Q1. Ultra - long special treasury bonds show the characteristic of "quota pre - allocation but issuance postponement". The "Two - New" quota in 2026 is pre - allocated in a reduced scale but earlier, while the "Two - Important" quota is pre - allocated in a larger scale but later [25][29][30]. 3.2 Local Bonds: In Q1, the issuance scale is similar to that in the same period of 2025, the rhythm is earlier, and the terms vary across regions 3.2.1 Q1 Local Bond Plan: The issuance scale is basically the same as that in Q1 2025, and the supply is more concentrated in January - The planned issuance scale of the regions that have released plans is close to that in the same period of 2025. Affected by the Spring Festival shift, the issuance in January 2026 increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025 [31][32]. 3.2.2 Terms: Different regions show differentiation, and term shortening is not yet a general phenomenon - Regions with significantly shortened terms include Guangxi and Zhejiang, which do not arrange the issuance of 30y varieties and increase 10 - 20y varieties [32]. - Regions with little change in terms include Beijing and Shandong. Beijing's new special bonds still cover the full range of 1 - 30y terms, and Shandong's weighted average term is similar to that in Q1 2025 [33]. - Regions with significantly extended terms include Qingdao, which added 30y varieties that were not issued in 2025 [33]. 3.3 Q1 Supply Forecast: It is expected that the net financing of government bonds will be 3.6 trillion, and the issuance of ultra - long bonds will be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion 3.3.1 Government Bond Supply Forecast: The Q1 net financing is 3.6 trillion, including 2.15 trillion local bonds and 1.46 trillion treasury bonds - Local bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 2.15 trillion, with January and March being the supply peaks. The net financing in January, February, and March is expected to be 830 billion, 490 billion, and 840 billion respectively [38]. - Treasury bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 1.46 trillion. The single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds is assumed to be 135 billion for the remaining 3 issues in January, rising to 175 billion in February, and around 190 billion in March due to high maturity pressure [39]. 3.3.2 Ultra - long Bond Supply Forecast: The issuance in Q1 is 1.4 - 1.77 trillion, including 11.6 billion treasury bonds and 1.3 - 1.65 trillion local bonds - Ultra - long treasury bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be around 11.6 billion, with 32 billion, 32 billion, and 52 billion issued in January, February, and March respectively [42]. - Ultra - long local bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion, with different issuance scales calculated according to different reference term structures [43].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone, reaching 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity after eight months of decline [1][2]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The December manufacturing PMI's increase is notable, rising 0.9 percentage points month-on-month, contrary to the typical seasonal decline [1]. - Key indicators contributing to this increase include the production expectations index, production index, and purchasing volume, all showing significant improvements compared to historical averages [1]. - The rise in new orders index since June indicates a recovery in demand, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing investment and boosting private sector activity [2]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - GDP growth is projected to exceed 4.5% in Q4 2025, driven by increased production capacity and improved market conditions for high-quality enterprises [3]. - The late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival has allowed companies to adjust production schedules, mitigating disruptions typically caused by holiday breaks [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The December PMI reflects a rebound in downstream demand and positive trends in high-tech manufacturing [4]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, indicating a return to expansion, while medium-sized enterprises approached the critical point at 49.8%. However, small enterprises saw a decline to 48.6% [4]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The government has initiated proactive macroeconomic policies, including early issuance of local government debt limits and investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan [5]. - The focus on long-term strategic considerations in policy adjustments aims to ensure sustained recovery while allowing for flexibility in future measures [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the fiscal policy for 2025 will be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit expected to rise by 39% and broad deficit by 27% [1][13][14] - The issuance of government bonds will be accelerated, with net supply expected to increase by 128% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while broad fiscal expenditure is projected to show a "U"-shaped trend in 2024 and a "front high and back low" trend in 2025 [1][14] - The structure of fiscal revenue is improving, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income [2][15][16] Group 2 - The expansion of debt resolution measures and diversification of debt resolution methods are highlighted, including the issuance of special bonds and policies targeting corporate arrears and PPP projects [2][16][17] - The expected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of 2025 is attributed to several factors, including the completion of prior funding projects and the diversion of funds to debt resolution [3][18][19] - For 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal strength compared to 2025 [4][20][21] Group 3 - The anticipated fiscal revenue growth for 2026 is projected to rebound to 3%-5%, driven by price increases and tax policy adjustments [5][26][27] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to significantly impact fixed asset investment, with an estimated investment scale of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in 2026 [6][28][29] - The report indicates a structural shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on new types of consumption and service consumption, as traditional durable goods consumption is expected to slow down [8][32][33] Group 4 - The report discusses the expansion of debt resolution to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear local government arrears to enterprises [9][34][35] - The importance of improving the local tax system is highlighted, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [10][36][37] - The overall impact on the asset side suggests that continued fiscal strength and proactive measures will support nominal growth and micro-activity in 2026 [11][37]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The December Politburo meeting will set the policy direction for 2026, emphasizing the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a GDP target of around 5%[1][5] - Economic performance in 2023 is expected to show resilience, with positive factors accumulating, but risks and challenges remain[3][4] - The overall policy tone for 2026 is anticipated to be proactive, expansionary, and stimulative, continuing to emphasize the significance of economic work[4][5] Group 2: Policy Implementation - There will be a strong focus on implementing policies effectively and mobilizing all parties' enthusiasm, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan"[6] - Key areas of focus include strengthening industries, expanding domestic demand, and leveraging central government support through monetary and fiscal policies[7][10] - The fiscal deficit for 2026 is projected to be around 4%, with special bonds expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, up from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025[7][16] Group 3: Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts of 50-100 basis points and reserve requirement ratio reductions of 1-2 times in 2026[7][16] - Fiscal policy will prioritize "investment in people" alongside traditional infrastructure investments, with total fiscal expenditure projected to reach approximately 43 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1 trillion yuan from 2025[7][16] - Consumer spending is targeted to increase, with a focus on service consumption and a potential continuation of the "old-for-new" policy, maintaining a budget of at least 300 billion yuan for 2026[9][16]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for August slightly increased by 0.1 points to 49.4, with 7 out of 15 sub-sectors remaining in the expansion zone, consistent with previous values [1][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Industries showing improvement in August primarily include high-tech manufacturing (computers, pharmaceuticals), equipment manufacturing (specialized, automotive), and some raw material sectors (non-ferrous, non-metallic, petrochemical, chemical), along with the textile and apparel industry. This improvement is driven by macroeconomic factors such as policy benefits, strong export orders, and price recovery due to "anti-involution" [1][9][10]. - The sectors with significant declines in August include general equipment, electrical machinery, metals, chemical fibers and plastics, and food. This decline is attributed to high capital usage for "equipment renewal" in the first half of the year, a decrease in export orders, and self-imposed constraints on capital expenditure by companies [2][13]. - The absolute prosperity index shows that specialized and general equipment sectors are relatively leading, with specialized equipment reaching over 95% in the past four years, driven by "dual heavy" projects and "AI+" initiatives [2][14]. Group 2: Emerging Industries - In emerging industries, both new energy and energy-saving environmental protection sectors are in the expansion zone, likely due to accelerated fiscal funding and project bidding since the end of the second quarter. The sales prices in these sectors increased by 4.6% and 2.6% respectively [3][17][18]. - The construction industry saw a notable decline in prosperity, dropping 1.5 points to 49.1, with infrastructure construction experiencing a downturn but new orders improving, indicating a potential acceleration in project funding and signing [3][19][21]. Group 3: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI rose by 0.5 points to 50.5, reaching a new high for the year. Key drivers include increased activity in travel-related sectors during the summer, high capital market service activity, and continued strength in information technology services [4][22][23]. - The service sector's performance indicates a recovery in consumer spending related to summer travel and robust capital market activities, with various service industries showing improvements in their respective PMIs [4][24]. Group 4: Summary Insights - The short-term indicators of prosperity in August highlight four key areas: raw materials related to "anti-involution," large projects and "AI+" related industries, summer travel-related service consumption, and capital market services. These indicators exhibit structural characteristics, while the overall economic momentum is still adjusting [4][25].

Group 1: Economic Overview - China's total grain production is expected to reach 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, with import and export scale stabilizing at 20 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a historical high for the same period [1][2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining strategic determination and enhancing confidence to achieve annual goals, focusing on agriculture and external openness [1][2] Group 2: Agricultural Sector - The emphasis on solidifying the "three rural issues" (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers) is crucial for stabilizing agricultural production and ensuring food security [2][3] - Summer grain production reached 299.48 billion jin, overcoming drought challenges, with various agricultural products maintaining top global production levels [6][8] Group 3: Rural Economic Development - Rural residents' per capita disposable income reached 11,936 yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a real growth of 6.2% after adjusting for price factors [7] - The collective economic income of villages is projected to exceed 500,000 yuan this year, contributing to infrastructure maintenance and agricultural equipment purchases [7] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Investment - In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [10][11] - The establishment of new foreign investment enterprises increased by 11.7%, indicating a strong foreign investment attraction [10][11] Group 5: Infrastructure and Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outpacing overall investment growth [14] - The "two重" (two major projects) initiative aims to stimulate private investment and enhance effective investment, with significant progress expected by the end of the year [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 points to 49.3, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the overall economic sentiment showed slight improvement with an increase in the number of expanding industries from 6 to 7, suggesting that economic conditions are influenced by both quantity and price factors [1][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July, industries showing improvement were primarily in two categories: midstream equipment manufacturing and certain raw material sectors, including general and specialized equipment, electrical machinery, and metal products, likely linked to the release of the 2025 "Two Heavy" construction projects and central budget investments [7][10]. - The producer price index for black metals, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals increased by 80.1, 13.4, and 12.7 points respectively in July, reflecting a positive price trend in these sectors [7][8]. - The number of industries in the expansion zone increased to 7, with notable improvements in specialized equipment (up 1.6 points), general equipment (up 14.8 points), and electrical machinery (up 1.9 points) [7][10]. Group 2: Declining Industries - The industries experiencing significant downturns included durable consumer goods related to "trade-in" programs, export-dependent sectors, and the petrochemical industry, with automotive and computer communication electronics seeing declines of 7.0 and 3.7 points respectively [10][11]. - Export orders for automotive, textiles, and chemical industries showed notable declines, with the automotive sector's export orders dropping by 10.6 points [11][10]. - The petrochemical sector's sentiment decreased by 9.8 points in July, correlating with a drop in international crude oil prices after a peak in mid-June [10][11]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The new materials industry has maintained a leading sentiment for three consecutive months, with a 0.4 point increase in July, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating robust growth driven by connections to upstream sectors like new energy and robotics [17][18]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving industries showed resilience, remaining above seasonal averages, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors experienced declines [17][18]. - The sentiment in the new materials sector is supported by rapid internal growth and large-scale equipment updates, while the new energy vehicle sector faces production constraints due to industry "anti-involution" policies [17][18]. Group 4: Construction and Service Industries - In July, the construction sector saw a decline in outdoor construction activities due to adverse weather conditions, with residential construction sentiment dropping by 4.7 points, which is greater than the seasonal average decline [18][20]. - The service sector's operating conditions slightly decreased by 0.1 points in July, with high sentiment in travel-related industries such as aviation and dining, which saw significant increases [23][24]. - The overall service sector sentiment remains relatively high, with cultural and sports entertainment sectors exceeding 60 points, indicating a vibrant market [23][24].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is focusing on stabilizing employment, expanding domestic demand, and ensuring economic growth through a comprehensive policy toolbox [1][2] - The NDRC plans to distribute a fourth batch of 690 billion yuan in subsidies for consumption, completing the annual target of 3000 billion yuan [2] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence (AI) in enhancing productivity and efficiency across various industries, with a focus on commercializing AI applications [3] Group 2 - The central government is addressing issues of low-price disorderly competition and is committed to regulating such practices to ensure fair market competition [4][5] - The NDRC is revising the pricing law to clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, particularly targeting predatory pricing below cost [5] - The NDRC aims to combine effective market mechanisms with proactive government intervention to improve market order and encourage high-quality competition [5]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to continue, with positive performance in related sectors following the July 1 policy announcement. This trend is based on the expectation of improved industry performance and sustained demand, which may enhance the space for the "anti-involution" market [4][24]. - The U.S. tariff policy impact has dulled, with the recent extension of tariff exemptions and adjustments indicating a less aggressive stance, which may limit its overall market impact [4][30]. - As of July 20, 2025, 43.7% of the 1,547 listed companies that disclosed earnings forecasts reported positive expectations, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials, metals, and construction materials [4][31]. Group 2 - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, exceeding the annual target, with the second quarter showing a slight decline to 5.2% due to external factors. The first and third industries saw growth, while the second industry experienced a decline [34][35]. - The "anti-involution" policies have led to active responses from various industries, including steel, photovoltaic, and automotive sectors, which are expected to benefit from these measures [12][40]. - The focus on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors is highlighted, with significant opportunities in military, low-altitude economy, AI, and robotics, driven by favorable policies and high industry sentiment [40].